TrueBlueGED
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Posts posted by TrueBlueGED
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On 7/15/2019 at 1:31 PM, triumph_communes said:
Daily dosage of grains of salt:
The curious story of Justin Schultz:
RAPM charts still require CONTEXT-- the models don't explain it all
In this case, the context is Schultz had a career year and had considerable drop-off in 2017-18:
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Then again in 2018-19:
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But hey, good on you for picking out the obvious outlying season in an ill-fated attempt to show Risto will blossom elsewhere. Schultz was great in 2016-17, but it's pretty clear that season is not representative of who Schultz is as a player.
Again, the argument isn't that context is irrelevant, it's that context is not transformative.
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McCabe is a nice solid 3rd pairing Dman who can occasionally step into the top-4 when injuries/circumstances demand it. But if he's a fixture on you're 2nd pair, you're probably just a bubble team.
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On 7/16/2019 at 3:55 PM, Weave said:
You seem to be referring to apathy. I’m not willing to assume that silence is evidence of apathy or agreement. Your mileage may vary.
Regarding your point that, in the end the effect is the same, I mostly agree. It's the idea that the only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing. I put much more weight upon those with real influence, responsibility and power than I do among the masses. That is why we elect them.
More pointedly, that's the only way average voters are going to be swayed. Public opinion is a top-down process, not bottom-up. And really, GOP leaders aren't going to turn on Trump while he's in office because their electoral fortunes are tied to his.
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1 minute ago, dudacek said:
Wouldn’t be my target for sure, but as long our centre depth chart remains Eichel/Mittelstadt/Larsson/Sobotka I’m interested.
Pretty much where I'm at. Obviously he's FAR from ideal, but the bottom line is we need more NHL centers.
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2 hours ago, Weave said:
To be fair, he said that the specific tweets didn't elevate to racist, not that the man isn't racist. I suppose if you squint real hard and look at it sideways long enough a non-racist judgement may seem plausible. While still believing the man who hit "post" is a racist poop bag.
Is Britt Hume associated with the Republican party? I don't watch TV news. Haven't since we cut the cord 8yrs ago. Last I recall Hume was a CNN reporter that covered election stuff. Never struck me as biased then.
I'm disappointed in Romney side stepping that. All courage was lost with McCain's passing apparently. I don't see how I could ever walk back to the GOP after all this. They are badly soiled AFAIAC.
Not officially. But Fox News is basically state media at this point.
And Romney didn't even sidestep, he tacitly endorsed it.
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1 hour ago, Sabel79 said:
For instance...
Mitt is a real profile in courage. Plenty of members of Congress can't win re-election without Trump's backing. He not only can, but he's not even up for re-election this cycle. And he still can't bring himself to acknowledge what any reasonable person knows Trump's comments were.
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4 hours ago, ... said:
Worth seeing in the theatre or wait for on-demand?
What @shrader said.
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On 7/14/2019 at 12:39 PM, Weave said:
At this point I don't know why, but this morning's tweets by Trump have left me shocked. Telling 4 black Congresswomen to go back where they came from in a published tweet.
There can't be anyone left that still questions whether or not he is a racist, can there? I mean, at this point, they might as well own it and embrace the racism, cuz it's out there for everyone to see now. It's not even subtle or wink, wink, nod, nod anymore.
You underestimate the power of motivated reasoning. For example:
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12 minutes ago, Thorny said:
I think Nylander’s contract would just make Marner’s look bad.
Potayto, potahto.
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If Marner ends up signing for the money he wants, it's really going to make that William Nylander contract look fantastic for Toronto.
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On 7/7/2019 at 9:19 PM, Zamboni said:
I’ve been enjoying FTWD.
Gonna binge watch Luther next week.
Luther is so good! Except season 4, which I found really odd. That series is pretty much why I want Idris Elba in everything now.
Anyway, saw Spiderman yesterday. Really strong finish to phase 3, and in my not-so-humble opinion, considerably better than Endgame.
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21 minutes ago, Taro T said:
Yes. They pass the eye test. Their detractors don't focus on how their play looks. They focus on the fact that neither is a threat to score 10 goals nor 30 points.
The fact that other teams top lines score roughly at that same frequency when they're out there gets overlooked. And, last time we checked, keeping the other team from scoring was still a good thing.
I'm hardly the first to make this observation, but I also think they're perfect examples of familiarity breeds contempt.
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6 hours ago, Torpedo Forecheck said:
I can't believe some love this move- he sucks. Watch the fourth lines of the playoff teams. When Erod is a fourth line center the Sabres will have something.
One thing is for sure: none of us watched a single second of playoff hockey.
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6 minutes ago, tom webster said:
Here’s one of my favorite topics. Everyone talks about how Cirelli and Point were “developed” by Tampa. Point played 9 games in AHL. Cirelli 51 plus a playoff the year previous.
In Buffalo we call that rushed. You know the difference? Point and Cirelli were already good. The only players who don’t make it because they were rushed weren’t good enough to begin with.
The biggest thing development does, in my view, is dictate how much they can contribute right away.
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3 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:
The funny thing is, he's on that team right now, and they certainly don't appear to be absorbing it easily
Maybe. That team also couldn't handle Kane. If I'm going to dive into the realm of locker rooms we know nothing about, my spidey sense that "veteran leadership" they have is more of a popular clique than a group of team leaders.
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3 hours ago, dudacek said:
Just making clear that what we are talking about here is trading Risto and maybe a smaller plus for Laine.
Given the hate Risto gets, I am a little surprised I am on my own here.
If I thought the entire league valued Risto like I do, I'd do Risto for Laine in a second. Given the divide within our own fan base, I'm pretty confident there are GMs out there who legitimately value Risto and would give up more than I think he's worth.
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1 hour ago, tom webster said:
No, I understand and feel the same way. I would like to think that the true believers want to be questioned as well. There is a ton of good information out there but there is a ton of junk science as well.
Questioned, sure. But "there's junk science" without any specifics on what and why isn't exactly a great basis to go from, ya know?
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4 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:
Wouldn't they have negative cap space if they signed Gardiner? With a Marner left to re-sign?
No man, you just don't get it, the nerd didn't give him a contract so the stats are fake!
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9 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:
I agree that Gardiner is not as good as the #objectiveevidence (?) suggests. If he was, the nerd running the Leafs would have prioritized his resigning. But he didn’t. Dubas loves analytics and knows more about them than those at evolving, or us. Also note if their #secretsauce were anything of substance, they too would be working for Dubas. The fact is evolving and other statisticians update the coefficients on the categories used for expected goals and WAR year over year looking to refine their proofs. While I have learned so much this last year from those who post here as it relates to the underlying metrics (for which I’m grateful) I reject the singular argument which says look at this chart which weights shot type over shot distance or shot angle over rebounds as #objectiveevidence. It was so refreshing to see Flagg reference going to watch video to make a decision on a player. A GM like validation. Bravo.
This is a really bad argument. Dubas has a lot more to balance than whether he thinks Gardiner is good.
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25 minutes ago, tom webster said:
I understand the argument and I’m not focused on Laine, but in a sport that is so random, I am not convinced that a guy that has a special ability to score has enough positive impact on ten games to more then offset his negative impact on seventy games. And when you factor in the parity caused by a ridiculous points system, it could be the playoffs.
Or, if could be this past season all over again. I'd rather be screwed by random parity than bank on it turning out in my favor. I'd rather build a team like those LA Cup teams that would sometimes miss the playoffs on poor shooting than be the Calgary or Avalanche teams of a few years back who made the playoffs on miraculous shooting and didn't get back for years.
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12 minutes ago, tom webster said:
I don’t know, seems like Laine is everything people thought Ovi was at a similar age. You are not building an all star team, you are looking to find the pieces of a Stanley Cup winner. A potential 50 goal scorer is a pretty good piece from what you hope will be your 5th best forward after Jack, Jeff, Sam, eventual 2C.
Thing is, I have no idea how you're getting a 2C anytime soon with trading Risto and Mitts for a winger. Also, fwiw, Ovi's overall on-ice impact measures were light years above Laine's.
Ovechkin pro year 3:
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Laine pro year 3:
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If Curtis freaking Lazar is playing wing for Eichel, that's a really bad sign for the season and for every other player he beat out.
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3 minutes ago, North Buffalo said:
You okay?
I'm fine, thanks. My fiancee's mom is having a valve replaced and while inside they found damage to a second valve that they're working on now. They just told us to go get dinner if we haven't already because it'll be awhile.
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8 minutes ago, dudacek said:
Yeah, I’m not sure I’m going to enjoy watching Jimmy boy with the Sabres. I’ll pass on the Ranger games ?
He definitely seems like the type of player who is going to earn your ire.
7 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:Now, when we trade Risto for Zibanejad, I'll absolutely start rolling film and keep an eye on Jimmy while it's happening ?
Bring. Me. Zibanejad!!!
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New club: Hockey Statistics -- Reference and Discussion
in The Aud Club
Posted · Edited by TrueBlueGED
IMO, it shouldn't. Unless we're also going to start an eye test club, and a hockey management club, etc. There's no good reason to split hockey talk into its own space.