Randall Flagg

New York Islanders Record last season: 35-37-10, 80 points, 7th in the Metro Playoffs: None Coach: Barry Trotz GM: Lou Lamoriello Captain: Vacant GF: 261 (7th) GA: 293 (31st) PP: 23.2% (6th) PK: 73.2% (31st) Top 5G: 1.) Anders Lee (40) 2.) John Tavares (37) 3.) Jordan Eberle (25) 4.) Mathew Barzal (22) 5.) Anthony Beauvillier (21) Top 5A: 1.) Mathew Barzal (63) 2.) Josh Bailey (53) 3.) John Tavares (47) 4.) Jordan Eberle (34) 5.) Nick Leddy (32) Top 5 PTS: 1.) Mathew Barzal (85) 2.) John Tavares (84) 3.) Josh Bailey (71) 4.) Anders Lee (62) 5.) Jordan Eberle (59) Key Additions: Valtteri Filppula (C), Leo Komarov (LW),Matt Martin (LW), Tom Kuhnhackl (RW), Robin Lehner (G) Key Losses: John Tavares (C), Calvin de Haan (D), Jaro Halak (G) Projected Lineup: Beauvillier - Barzal - Eberle Lee - Nelson - Bailey Ladd - Filppula - Ho-Sang Komarov - Cizikas - Clutterbuck Leddy - Boychuk Hickey - Pulock Toews - Pelech Lehner Greiss Top Prospects we might/might not see 1.) Oliver Wahlstrom, RW, 1st round 2018 2.) Noah Dobson, D, 1st round 2018 3.) Kieffer Bellows, LW, 1st round 2016 4.) Ilya Sorokin, G, 3rd round 2014 5.) Bode Wilde, D, 2nd round 2018 My thoughts The Islanders are in a bad spot for this immediate season, losing their franchise piece. And that really stings. But I honestly like where they are going forward. Lou and Barry should be a good front office, and I think they nailed those two first round picks out of the park. I've shown that Barzal got ridiculously tough competition last season, so the hit that comes from Tavares' protection being gone will be limited relative to what it could be, and his linemates are unchanged/upgraded because of JT's absence. Their immediate offense has a 40 goal scorer and 4-6 other guys who could score 20. I think their offense will be okay, if not great. But last season their defense and goaltending allowed the 2nd most goals of any team since the full-season lockout, if I remember correctly. If that stat was only true at some point late in the season and isn't now, well, it's close. it was bad. I read some breakdowns about how a lot of that was Weight's fault, though obviously none of those players are defensive specialists either. Trotz should help to button things up a bit. I'm rooting hard for Robin. I don't expect a successful season in terms of playoffs, but I wouldn't be surprised if their record didn't change at all, and I don't think they'll be a COMPLETE tire fire. And the dark cloud of Tavares' departure probably looms large over their fans' psyche, but with Barzal, Beauvillier, Bellows, Wahlstrom, Dobson, Aho, and Pulock (who I think is incredible and will have a breakout year this year) is, in a vacuum, a fine young core to have, and some lottery luck could make it even better. They'll be okay.

Does Tyrod get the official win for that one? Because if so, that's literally the most Tyrod thing in the world

Is Baker gonna do it? Can he break the curse of the Browns being the Browns?

I mean, it's readable, but "incredibly easy to read?"

No idea how to find that

I was just providing the exact number so we can know exactly how accurate those charts are. If Sam played those minutes like the best player in the league or like the worst player in the league, it wouldn't meaningfully alter his other charts which i've posted, so we know that we can use his 5v5 numbers without sweating the difference.

Get well Conor, I hope we can see everyone out there for Boston

His on-ice shooting percentage dipped a little bit, but not drastically, the PDO was low but that was more due to save percentage. I don't see anything to suggest he's in for a huge bump in ES scoring. I don't have real hockey fresh in my mind to postulate why the discrepancy occurs, it'll be something to watch for, but I'm not super worried about it either. Counting stats like that will keep his contract lower than it could be, while we still get positive effects that go beyond his specific point totals.

It was 18% of our team's non 5v5 ES minutes, which is less than you'd expect even if we were to roll 4 lines, much less skew towards our better players, probably because he's not super quick and you want speed out there for 4v4/3v3 minutes.

I just checked out of curiosity, and 98.7% of Sam's even strength minutes were 5v5.

New Jersey Devils Record last season: 44-29-9, 97 points, 5th in the Metro Playoffs: Lost in the 1st round to Tampa Bay Coach: John Hynes GM: Ray Shero Captain: Andy Greene GF: 243 (15th) GA: 240 (17th) PP: 21.4% (9th) PK: 81.8% (7th) Top 5G: 1.) Taylor Hall (39) 2.) Kyle Palmieri (24) 3.) Nico Hischier (20) 4.) Miles Wood (19) 5.) Jesper Bratt (13) Top 5A: 1.) Taylor Hall (54) 2.) Will Butcher (39) 3.) Nico Hischier (32) 4.) Sami Vatanen (25) 5.) Jesper Bratt (22) Top 5 PTS: 1.) Taylor Hall (93) 2.) Nico Hischier (52) 3.) Will Butcher (44) 4.) Kyle Palmieri (44) 5.) Jesper Bratt (35) Key Additions: None really Key Losses: Patrick Maroon (LW), Michael Grabner (RW), John Moore (D), Drew Stafford (RW), Brian Gibbons (LW), Jimmy Hayes(RW) Projected Lineup: Hall - Hischier - Bratt Johansson - Zacha - Palmieri Coleman - Zajac - Noesen Wood - Boyle - Quenneville Mueller - Vatanen Greene - Severson Butcher - Santini Schneider Kinkaid Top Prospects we might/might not see 1.) Ty Smith, D, 1st round 2018. Thought he was their best player at the prospect tournament 2.) Michael McLeod, C, 1st round 2016 3.) John Quenneville, C, 1st round 2014 4.) Jesper Boqvist, C, 2nd round 2017 5.) Joey Anderson, RW, 3rd round 2016 My thoughts The Devils are headed in the right direction, but they lost some depth, and so injury troubles will tank their season in a hurry. Hischier will keep getting better and become a premiere two-way first line center. They have a young, quick team, without a lot of star power outside of Hall but with guys who skate together and play hard. The defense is solid but not spectacular, I don't see a truly bad defenseman in there, even if there is only maybe one guy you'd want on a top pair (Vatanen? maybe not even then). Schneider is worse now than he used to be but Kinkaid is more than capable to fill in during his lulls. I don't think this team is going to make the playoffs because it would require injury luck and Hall to repeat his torrid season, the combined probability of which is probably less than .5, but I think they'll be close, fighting for it all season. If things go right they could squeak in and maybe even upset somebody to win around. If things go poorly on the back end and in goal and with injuries, they could fall into the bottom 10.

It's worth noting too that a large chunk of Sam's time without ROR had him centering, like, Griffith Pouliot and Moulson, at least early in the season. later on his non ROR time was with Jack. This chart shows shot shares for players when they play with Sam (their number in black) versus when they play without Sam (their number in red). GF%, which is normalized plus minus (and thus inherently even strength), shows that all Sabres except Kane and Erod (small sample size - one more goal for each would flip the script) and Beaulieu/Gorges (bad hockey player) improve in that category with Sam versus when they aren't with Sam. Usually by quite a lot. I don't have a great way to show this - the spreadsheet is large. it's on Naturalstattrick.com, go to player index, search for Sam, and click the "teammates" button and play around. That's where I get the "everyone's better at ES with him" - the shots improve and the goals for and against, at least relative to each other, improve. The chart below shows his effect on the team overall at even strength. We score a lot more, even if we don't improve in GA (my apologies if I've claimed that) and improve in shots both for and against dramatically. Which is why it's weird his 5v5 production is so low. This happens no matter what line he's on, really, unless he's with like Griffiths and Moulson, which is excusable. So even if he doesn't have the pointzzzz he makes us a better player, directly or indirectly driving play in a positive way. It would be remiss to both lament our 5v5 play and call Sam a PP specialist. He's one of the only good things about our 5v5 play.

That's interesting and I'm glad you figured it out. they're so careful with hockey players that i bet they'd know if he had it.

Random late-night thought about Dahlin...Do y'all see how he sort of skates the opposite of bow-legged, whatever that might be called? It couples with a really wide base. Like, his ankles sort of bend inward, not unlike a young kid who is just skating their first time. Of course, it's not because of a lack of technique - it's how he generates such power from his edges, making his c-cuts and direction changes smoother than maybe anything I've ever seen. But does anyone think that could do long-term damage to his ankles/tendons/whatever is down there? Sorta like his left skate is doing here. Just seems like it could stress the inside of his ankles, or even knees. I understand this happens to every skater that pushes off, but Dahlin uses it so much more than anyone I've ever seen and even glides in the stance sometimes in case he wants to change direction quick

That was so dumb. A guy with well-documented concussion problems, who had no interest in fighting. Wish Domi wasn't in the division, and it's not because of his hockey talents

It's a little curious that Sam's 5v5 production isn't there because the team's production when he's on the ice at 5v5 is better, as are the metrics and production of any single player with him versus without him

Nashville Predators Record last season: 53-18-11, 117 points, President's Trophy Playoffs: Lost in the 2nd round, 7 games, to Winnipeg Coach: Peter Laviolette GM: David Poile Captain: Roman Josi GF: 261 (7th) GA: 204 (2nd) PP: 21.2% (12th) PK: 81.9% (6th) Top 5G: 1.) Viktor Arvidsson (29) 2.) Filip Forsberg (26) 3.) Craig Smith (25) 4.) Kevin Fiala (23) 5.) PK Subban (16) Top 5A: 1.) PK Subban (43) 2.) Ryan Johansen (39) 3.) Roman Josi (39) 4.) Filip Forsberg (38) 5.) Viktor Arvidsson (32) Top 5 PTS: 1.) Filip Forsberg (64) (in 67 games, identical stat line to Jack) 2.) Viktor Arvidsson (61) 3.) PK Subban (59) 4.) Ryan Johansen (54) 5.) Roman Josi (53) Key Additions: None really Key Losses: Scott Hartnell (LW), Alexei Emelin (D), Mike Fischer (C) Projected Lineup: Forsberg - Johansen - Arvidsson Fiala - Turris - Smith Tolvanen - Bonino - Jarnkrok Salomaki - Sissons - Hartman Ekholm - Subban Josi - Ellis Hamhuis - Weber Rinne Saros Top Prospects we might/might not see 1.) Eeli Tolvanen, LW, 1st round 2017 2.) Dante Fabbro, D, 1st round 2016 3.) Yakov Trenin, C, 2nd round 2015 4.) Patrick Harper, C, 5th round 2016 5.) Rem Pitlick, C, 3rd round 2016 (Casey's linemate in college) My thoughts The President's trophy winners are bringing back the same cast, minus Hartnell, plus rookie Eeli Tolvanen, who had a stunning post-draft season in Russia. He's going to be a star. They're still pumping out prospects. They're going to be around a while and are a top 5 threat for the cup for sure, with that defense, which got better in replacing Emelin with a legitimate shutdown guy in Hamhuis (as long as he didn't fall off the table this summer). Rinne is the wildcard, but I think Saros is ready if he falters. Look for these guys to be playing as May progresses.

My favorite part was when Eugene was talking about how great the locker room is/will be when it's all about the "team" and Borowiecki was like "...so how are you gonna help us fix the locker room bc it's not the sunshine and roses you paint it as" in slightly more coded words

This is, every single part of it, an exact description of one of our two cats back home.

I didn't quote a post there, I was responding to GA's take on the injury. So what is, so, I want Sheary back asap

3,000 + experts? I could find more engineers and architects named Jeff or Bill that aren't 9/11 conspiracy theorists That's roughly one tenth of one percent of the # of architects and engineers in America

Yeah, I don't think he played bad or anything. But a lot of the time when writing him in, I had visions of Pronman's list in my head, and not the hockey I've seen Casey play to date. Which isn't bad, but might need seasoning. Similarly, I wouldn't be mad if Asplund didn't make the cut right away even though I love what he's brought so far.

I truly believe that Pominville's top six role is a top 5 reason why we were the worst team in the league last year. This team had no idea how to use its veterans and no idea how to maximize its most important pieces, which is how any good team works. We now have a load of pieces with which to figure out how to do each of these effectively and I will be incredibly disappointed if we fall back on things that we leaned on when we were hot garbage

I think we've got quite a large sample size to indicate that this is just what Kyle is now. And people will be a lot less angry if we play him like he is, and not like he was. He has a place, and it's not as a go-to top-six guy. Same thing with what I said with Kyle - if he's really gotten quicker/rejuvenated, as long as he's where he should be, then by all means let's see how it goes

Close your eyes and picture Okposo - not on a bad night, not on a great night, just how you remember Okposo That's exactly what he looked like