LGR4GM

Old out of shapes internet bros telling a pro athlete that "it's time to hit the gym" is peak internet outrage culture. Cozens wasn't bad because he didn't hit the gym, he was bad because of terrible decision making and an abnormal regression in his shot percentage but why bother? For 14 years all I've ever heard here is the team needs to get bigger, hit the gym, bulk up, they are too small. Why change now? Carry on.

Privilege is a hell of a drug.

The press conference if you would like to watch it:

Ivan Demidov has got vision and skill

Noah Östlund will by Saturday

Analytics went from 1 to 5 ppl.

Tage Thompson at 23: 144 games played, 35pts, or 0.24ppg Peyton Krebs at 23: 215 games played, 71pts, or 0.33ppg Krebs had more ppg but had played more games. Tage over his next 78 games (brings him to 222 total games) put up 68pts. Brings him to .464ppg in the same number of games. If you think Krebs will break out, it would have to come very very very soon. I'm doubtful as he's regressed in production all 3 years. Also, Tage Thompson is an exception, don't use him as a rule. Krebs is 98% likely to be a 30pt forward.

Peyton Krebs played just over 1,000 minutes as a 23yr old. He had a 46.15GF% and a 48.83xgf% which are up from his previous year by 3 and 5.5% respectively. So he did indeed improve. Zach Benson played just over 886 minutes as a 18yr old. He had a 47.95gf% and a 51.39xgf% which are better than Krebs already. His HDCF% was 48.77 compared to Krebs at 46%. I bring this up as a comparison because yes, Krebs was better but he was still worse than an 18yr rookie. What is even more alarming to me is the counting stats. Benson had 10g and 10 first assists while Krebs had just 4g and 5 first assists. Krebs right now is not trending as a 3c as you note, ideally he is a 4c. The issue I have there is why would I keep a mediocre checking 4c around? He doesn't provide a skillset that differentiates him from others. He is a 6ft 187lbs center that is not particularly physical, isn't particularly good anything. As that what we want as a 4c? I know I don't want him at 3c, that needs to be changed and I think we agree there (in fact this post isn't trying to disagree with you at all). Jost is 100% who is will be and should not be retained at all. Chandler Stephenson is an option that others have said. I would also toss out, Teddy Blueger and maybe Chris Tierny but the pool here is thin. A trade is a better option IMPO. Montreal will need to clear some salary, Boston is a team that might have interest, Vancouver could like him, there are a few more teams around that might be interested in cheaper bottom 6 help with "upside" but the point is, in a package I think he still retains some value. I don't expect Adams though to move on from Krebs. He needs to 100% move on from Jost though.

What has honestly happened is that many of you equate size with grit which I do not. Because of this whenever I speak on the matter it appears that I don't care at all about size when in fact I just care more about grit. It is why I was thrilled we got Benson. Idc Benson is 5'10", I care that he will eat your heart with a nice Chianti. Size matters only when it matters, versus grit matters always. If I am moving on from Krebs, I want someone who has more grit and has more weight to throw around with that grit. Basically I always come off as wanting the "small skill guy" because I value skill more than size. For a 3rd line center, I want tenacity/abrasion/grit and I think someone bigger than Krebs with those traits would be better.

Let's talk about Mack Celebrini. Buffalo finished 11th which means they have the slim 3% chance of moving allllllll the way up to #1 in the NHL draft. We are actually in the final slot that could move all the way up (1-11 have a shot at #1). Mack Celebrini is better Jack Eichel. I say better because I don't see some of the in shift relaxing that Eichel has. Celebrini has a motor that is somewhere below Benson but above Peterka. His skating, IMO improved from when I saw him last year at the u18s (I was not there in person I saw video). By improved, I mean I felt that he was stronger on his skates and was also just a touch faster. His skating stride is good and I think as a 17yr old, it will only get better. Next part is his IQ. Zach Benson is the poster child for high hockey IQ on the Sabres. As the season wore on, Benson really started to use the high end IQ he is blessed with and in the last 2 months the game slowed way down for him. Celebrini is closer to Benson than most. He sees plays that are 1 or 2 passes out and anticipates really well. He has the handling and puck skills to capitalize on those high end ideas. You see a lot of plays where he will bait a defender and then do something else. He rarely skates himself into trouble. Fakes, dekes, manipulations are all a part of his game. He likes to move defenders and he likes to create advantages for his team. If you put Benson - Celebrini - Quinn on a line, and they are all 20-24yr olds, they are nightmare for opposing teams. What about his skills. I have already mentioned Celebrini's puck handles, he can do keep the puck on a string and deke at full speed. His passing is crisp and accurate. His shot is good, I know some really love it and he does shoot in stride. He can change the release point almost at will. If I had to rank it, it is below Bedard for sure but I think it will only get better. Remember that he was 17 all year in the NCAA so we don't see an 18yr old with a November bday here, we see a 17yr old born in mid june. There is a lot more to come from him. His shot is already a strength and my point here is that it will only improve. To put him in perspective I am going to compare him to Benson. Benson is a 3 out of 5 in this scale where 3 means you are equal to Benson. 2 would be below average compared to Benson and 1 would be Benson laughs at your attempt to do it how he does it. 4 is above average benson and 5 is Benson wants you to teach him how you do it. Bedard would have a 5 shot compared to Benson, McDavid would have 5 skating compared to Benson if that helps anchor you here. Olofsson would be a 1 in terms of physicality on this scale. Celebrini Puckhandling - 4 (he has better hands than Benson) Skating - 4 (Benson and Mack have the similar edgework and lower bodies but Celebrini is faster and generates speed quicker) Shot - 4.5 (Benson has an okay shot, but Celebrini has a quicker shot and it is already harder, Celebrini's shot is a below Bedard's but still very good) IQ - 3 (these are really smart guys) Compete - 2.5 (sorry but while I like Celebrini's compete and grit, Benson is just a bit above still and will probably always be a bit above) Positioning - 3 (they know where to be and how to get there) Physicality - 2.5 (Benson is more physical but not by a ton. Celebrini just uses his body less than Benson to create space, probably because Celebrini is faster) Backchecking - 2.5 (Benson is more voracious in checking in general but Celebrini is solid here too. He would be in the top 5 on the Sabres right out of the gate) Basically what you get in Celebrini is a strong NHL ready talent that is very young with lots of runway left. He is smart and tenacious like Benson while have some better overall qualities and also being bigger at 6' 190lbs (we will check his weight at the combine). If you could mix Quinn and Benson together, you would get Celebrini IMPO. He is a perfect NHL center in the making. If Buffalo manages to get the 1st overall pick, they should keep it and take Celebrini. He instantly can slot in as the #3 center and within 1-2 years will be your #2 center, within 3-4 years, your #1 center. There are no holes in his game I have seen. While he has some work to do, he's easily for me on the same level as Jack Eichel when he went #2 overall. I think he has more motor than Jack though. Would love Celebrini in Buffalo but know it won't happen. Is he a franchise changing player? Not at 18yrs old but at 22yrs old, he is most assuredly a guy who could easily be a game breaking talent. Won't be 18 until June 12, scored 32goals and 64pts in 38 NCAA games.

Okay, Pronman put Demidov at #8 which is bizarre. Demidov is the 2nd best player in this draft and full tier level above #3. This is from 7 months ago and he's gotten better. He has 25pts in 13 MHL playoff games. The MHL is probably a step below the QMJHL but it is a jr u20 league in Russia. He also had 60pts in 30 MHL reg season games. If you watch any of his highlights, this isn't some passenger type scoring winger. He will attack and drive the net, create space for shots, and is at least above average in hockey IQ. He has all the handles you could want and a very good shot. Pronman comps him to Jeff Skinner and I think that is because of some of his skating, there is a clip where Demidov opens his hips and does the trademark Skinner half moon skating slide. Note in this clip a few things outside of what Cam says. BTW, if you want draft stuff, follow Cam). Demidov starts about a full stride behind the defender but uses his strong legs to go past him, his skating stride is okay but can be improved. Note how he isn't getting a full leg extension and he is hunched a little too much. Still he has decent ankle flexion and uses his edges well to generate speed. He tracks the puck well in the air and then gets it to the outside of the 2nd defender. Here we see a good use of his edges as he was moving towards the wall but once he has the puck he cuts in and across the hands of that defender all while keeping the puck outside. The should drop bumps that defender off him enough so he can put his other hand on his stake and shoot. He has good balance here as well. Here is a more recent scouting report on Demidov. I am going through it now. Before I do though, I just want to say the above clip is not uncommon when watching Demidov. He drives the net, has a good shot, great hands, strong on his skates with good edges. He has 1 more year on his Russian contract but then I would expect a move to NA. He is not a finesse only winger FTR. He has more to his game although I wonder about high end deception stuff. Still this is the 2nd best player in the class for me. If Buffalo were to win the #2 spot in the lottery, they should take Demidov and prepare for him to come over next summer. With Novikov and other Russians in the system, I would hope he would feel comfortable doing just that. He is easily the replacement for Skinner and could become a better more well rounded version.

I'll cover this in 30 mins.

Krebs is a RFA. Do you keep him or put him in a package. I'd package him. I want bigger with grit. Trading for a middle 6 center would be smart.

Adams hinted at it in his press conference. Basically said he had plans for the retained coaches. I'd guess Lance followed up with someone. It's why Benson stood out so much to us.

Probably. They would also be reflected in how a team plays. Hell Granato kept benching Ryan Johnson even though there was all the fancy stats showing he's the 3rd best D. Then Granato put Byram and Jokiharju together and I've never seen a +98% in a shot chart, they got destroyed 5v5 and yet it took him multiple games to end that. Just not smart and seemed to be flailing.

Here's something that reiterated a lot of what this board has said.

Sabres were the worst forechecking team in hockey this season.

I want Karmanos hiring the next year coach.

For me it's Mack Celebrini, Ivan Demidov, trade the pick.

He has a roll for them. Sounded like on the coaching staff. An apology without change is just manipulation. He can say whatever he wants but until his actions match those words, they are irrelevant.

It's me, I am Kevyn Adams personal Sabrespace correspondent. Give him a daily summary. I have been caught.

That was subtly very interesting.

He could walk in and tell me I am the greatest person in the world and shower me with more compliments than grains of sand on a beach and tbh it wouldn't matter. They either fix this mess or they don't. The words ultimately mean 0.