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LGR4GM

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Everything posted by LGR4GM

  1. Jack... Jacky jack. You gotta get your stick in there. Quinn needed to be a step faster.
  2. Oooo, that makes sense. I follow her on Twitter and should have known. She's great.
  3. Oh my God. This is a straight dismantling of a team. Better get ready kids, gonna be a rough evening now.
  4. I found this interesting since the narrative is Adams doesn't care or is incompetent.
  5. The Sabres are going to turn the corner in December. Once they finally bench Mitts we'll be almost there.
  6. Hamilton hates the team and fans. That's his shtick.
  7. Okay but we can do the same with every player on every team ever. That doesn't make the larger point I am trying to get you to look at any more correct. And again I don't disagree that Cozens has been out of position at times, I fully disagree and proved why it is wrong to say the CPQ line "all 3 players (Cozens, JJP, Quinn) have made mistakes/been out of position more than most other forwards on the team allowing prime chances and goals against." because they haven't. They aren't worse than most other forwards on this team and Jack Quinn might be the best 200ft player this team has currently. I have no doubt they have made mistakes and need to work on stuff but you are trying to suggest that Quinn, Cozens, JJP are similar to Krebs and that they are somehow worse than most other forwards. They aren't even worse than Tage, Skinner, and Tuch. "What the heck you are arguing about and telling me that I am just wrong about....It must be an ego thing with you." I'm telling you, you are wrong to clump JJP, Quinn, and Cozens with Krebs and suggest that they make mistakes and are not as good as most other forwards on this team. Here are Krebs numbers while we are on the subject... 36.84ga% and a 46.95xgf% so again, CPQ have not made "mistakes/been out of position more than most other forwards on the team allowing prime chances and goals against." Literally my only point. It is objectively wrong to say this and sure it might be nitpicking but you it is a big point to refute.
  8. I didn't make this comment to you, for the record.
  9. Here is your claim "all 3 players (Cozens, JJP, Quinn) have made mistakes/been out of position more than most other forwards on the team allowing prime chances and goals against." So since I am "more worried about making your point than you are about seeing what is real" and "You just apparently do not want to admit when you are wrong" and " is you just ignoring reality because reality doesn't support your case. I can't argue/discuss this anymore with someone who's head is in the clouds about an issue just because it doesn't fit their narrative" let us examine your claim. There are several ways to do this but let's start easy. All numbers are courtesy of natural stat trick or elite prospects. First let us take a look at the list of goals against in all situations for the Sabres. Cozens actually is at the top of that list (you are right! huzzah) with 34ga in all situations. Peterka is 11th with 18ga. Now Jack Quinn wrecks the "all 3 most other" point because he sits at 19th with 11ga. This is out of 21 qualifying players who have played 10 or more games. Second let us take the raw numbers and put them in context because GA is one metric but GF is the other and players with more toi will likely have a few more goals against. These numbers are for all situations so every second of ice time regardless of PP/EV/PK To do this we get a percentage of gf%. Jack Quinn is 2nd on the team with a 67.65%. JJP is 6th with a 58.14%. Cozens is 10th with a 52.11% and Cozens is the last player out of the 21 who has a gf% over 50 meaning more goals are scored when they are on the ice and under 50 is less. Quick note before moving away from raw goal counts. Cozens has been on the ice for 4 empty net goals against and 3 for so that doesn't really change his numbers much. Third, let us look at Cozens, JJP, and Quinn as a line, the full CPQ line at 5v5. They have only 92 minutes together (5v5) thus far which is a little light still but again we are examining where they stand. They have 9gf and 7ga but what interests me here is the xgf and xga numbers. Those show us an 8.16xgf and a 4.42xga suggesting that they are producing about a 1/3 more (64.86%) chances for themselves than they give up and that is impressive for a 21, 21, and 20 year old in the NHL. Since we went with "most other forwards" let us compare to the top line of the Sabres and then Olofsson and Mitts for poops and laughs. Tage, Tuch, Skinner have played 194 minutes together and have 13gf and 8ga against at 5v5. What is interesting is that their xgf and xga numbers show us 12.1xgf and 11.06xga which comes out to 52.24% and that is far below the 64.86% we see with the CPQ line even if they have a slight advantage in real goal differential. My guess is that Tage and Skinner's shooting abilities are part of the reason where as Cozens shot issues are somewhat known at this point and Quinn went through a weird slump before his recent breakout. Now the fun one... Olofsson and Mitts (Im not including a 3rd person here because they rotate that 3rd a lot). The 2 players have been on the ice together for 206minutes and in that time... my god. They are 3gf and 11ga but do have a slightly better xgf% at 6.87% with a 10.7%xga. So they are almost exactly at the xga with 11 v 10.7 compared to the young guns line that has 2.5 more goals against then they should by xgf (yes real goals count just looking at context). That results in a stunning xgf% of 39.10% which is shockingly awful. The short version would be that while the CPQ creates 64.86% of the offense when on ice the MO line creates only 39.10%. Again the xgf stuff is all at 5v5 because I think that is what we are really looking at and talking about. So where does that leave us? Well, I actually don't disagree with you as much as you think about Cozens playing a little outside of himself at times. I think he has been out of position at times but overall that isn't the case. He has some things to clean up in his own end for sure. JJP is a middle of the road guy on this team who is not worst than most forwards and is basically average with improvement clearly visible. Jack Quinn is one of the best forwards on this team. He is highly adept at shutting down other teams and creating chances. He is probably better than Cozens in some ways and will overtake him IMPO. Combined, in their 92minutes of 5v5 ice time, this line is not and has not been worst than most forwards. In fact they are better than the Tage line, and so superior to the Mitts line that comparing the 2 is laughable. Jack Quinn, John-Jason Peterka, and Dylan Cozens are not worse than most forwards on the team. All of them with or without eachother maintain a positive gf/ga ratio. At 5v5 overall (no regard for linemates) Jack Quinn is 1st on the team at xgf% with 61.34 and 3rd on the team in actual gf% with 61.54. JJP is 6th on the team with 55.04xgf% and 8th on the team in actual gf% with 55.26. Dylan Cozens is 4th on the team in xgf% with 55.49 (3rd if I ignore Jost) and tied with JJP at 55.26 for actual gf%. So yes it is objectively FALSE that they are "worst than most other forwards on the team" and in Jack Quinn's case, there might not be a better 200ft forward on this team right now. Conclusion, you think I don't believe you that Cozens has been out of position at times when in fact I do. He has some learning yet to do but generally speaking, Dylan is pretty good at stopping the opposition and getting the puck up ice. JJP is still a hair behind on some plays but I think that is a simple age learning curve issue and the game will continue to slow down for him. Jack Quinn has clicked, he is very efficient at stopping the opposing team, working up ice, creating chances. So for one last time, it is objectively false that "all 3 players (Cozens, JJP, Quinn) have made mistakes/been out of position more than most other forwards on the team allowing prime chances and goals against."
  10. I'll bet you Owen Beck makes the team.
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