LGR4GM

Ottawa did a thing

I think most of this is exceedingly wrong. Trading 22 year old Cozens for 22 year old Coyles is nuts. Coyle best season 56pts and 21g. He did one at 24 and one at 23. Cozens best to date is 31g and 68pts at age 22. Mittelstadt is better than Debrusk. JJP will be better than JVR this year.

I think Krebs will be better than Geekie. Just can't give it to him until we see it.

Lines were pulled from LineCombos and idk how close Boston's are to reality but that is what I used. Buffalo had one edit done by me. Mitts went to Oloffson's spot and Olofsson slid to line 3. If you want to come in and complain because I did the lines wrong, have fun. I used what I had available. Forwards JEFF SKINNER - TAGE THOMPSON - ALEX TUCH /// BRAD MARCHAND - PAVEL ZACHA - DAVID PASTRNAK - Skinner is a step below Marchand but still a very good agitation winger. Edge to Boston. Thompson is better than Zacha, straight up better. Zacha might be better defensively but the sheer volume of Tage's scoring covers that. Pasta is better than Tuch, although I don't think Tuch has peaked. Overall, I think Boston's top line even with Zacha remains a point above. This gap is a lot closer without Bergeron. JOHN JASON PETERKA - DYLAN COZENS - CASEY MITTELSTADT /// JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - CHARLIE COYLE - JAKE DEBRUSK I think JJP will be better than JVR but at this point I would call it a draw. Again, I think JJP will be better and he has the potential to be better while JVR is declining. Cozens is better than Coyle. Coyle had slightly better defensive metrics but offensively Cozens is simply better. Again we have a case of a 31yr old versus a 22yr old and I will bet Cozens is better and Coyle declines. Advantage Buffalo. Debrusk v Mitts really comes down to which Mitts we get. Is it the 2nd half of the season Mitts, then I lean Mitts. Being with a shooter like Cozens and JJP, I think Mitts would excel versus Debrusk being with Coyle instead of Krejci is a decline. Conclusion is that Buffalo's 2nd line will be better than Boston's. JORDAN GREENWAY - PEYTON KREBS - VICTOR OLOFSSON /// A.J. GREER - MORGAN GEEKIE - TRENT FREDERIC Greenway wasn't great but he's better than Greer. I could put Lucic here I suppose but I get the same outcome. Greenway is better but how much is debatable. Krebs v Geekie... idk but I suppose I must lean Geekie for now. I don't think he is special and Krebs grow a lot in his sophomore year. Geekie edges him out for now. Frederick is better than Olofsson on paper. So I give him the edge. That means in the end this is either an edge to Boston or if Krebs is slightly better a draw ZEMGUS GIRGENSONS - TYSON JOST - KYLE OKPOSO /// MILAN LUCIC - PATRICK BROWN - OSKAR STEEN Lucic is slow as crap. I am giving the edge to Zemgus here who at least can still get up and down the ice even with his rock hands. I think Jost can be better than Brown and I would expect him to be. If Krebs somehow ended up in this spot I 100% think krebs is better. Steen v Okposo... Well Steen could be good but I gotta trust Okposo here and I would trust Rousek over Steen too. I think our 4th line just offers more than Bostons. Offensively I think the 1st lines and 3rd lines are close. I think our 2nd line will be far better than Bostons and our 4th line will be better. Overall, the age and growth potential is better for Buffalo and they aren't adding in a bunch of newbies they hope gain instant chemistry. I think Buffalo will manage to out offense Boston. Defense MATTIAS SAMUELSSON - RASMUS DAHLIN /// MATT GRZELCYK - CHARLIE MCAVOY Grzelcyk is better than Muel. Sorry but it is true, they play differently but Boston has the edge there and I am unsure if Muel is good enough to close that gap. Now that brings us to McAvoy v. Dahlin. Dahlin smokes him offensively and I will say right now that Dahlin has not hit his offensive peak. McAvoy edged Dahlin defensively although that gap has narrowed significantly in the last year. I know some will flip out but the edge goes to Dahlin. He is just too Dynamic on offense and even though the Krueger Dahlin is still stuck in everyone from fans to voters brains, he is dam good defensively as well. McAvoy though is only a hair below here so overall the first pair goes to Boston. OWEN POWER - CONNOR CLIFTON /// HAMPUS LINDHOLM - BRANDON CARLO Power will be better than Lindholm. There I said it. However right now the edge goes to Lindholm and might for a full nother season. Power could have a major glow up though and catch him but for now Lindholm is a full step above. Carlo v Clifton is different. I think Clifton will be better in an elevated role with Power and I have stated that regularly. I think Carlo is good though and so I am giving this a tie. I think Clifton is going to click with Power and it will be good. Carlo is better defensively so again it is the offense v defense thing again so I will call it a tie. That means that pairing 2 goes to Boston as well at least for 1 more year. I think Power will surpass things. ILYA LYUBUSHKIN - ERIK JOHNSON /// DEREK FORBORT - KEVIN SHATTENKIRK Lyubshkin or Joker, I think both are better than Forbort. It just isn't that close to me but maybe I just haven't watched Forbort enough. Shattenkirk hasn't been very good for a couple of years but also Anaheim sucks. Johnson was bad last year but pretty good before that. Hmm what do I do here? I will call it a tie for now but I as always have more faith in Buffalo than out. Either way, I would give the 3rd pair to Buffalo with a slight edge. Boston's defense is really solid even with their losses. That top pair is pretty good even though I think Dahlin will surpass McAvoy if he has not already (I think he did) and we gotta hope that Muel will continue to improve. The 2nd pair I think all comes down to what Owen Power will be this year and that's a tough question. I think our 2nd pair is a notch below Bostons as we sit here in summer. Our 3rd pair IMPO is better. I also feel better about the depth on our 3rd pair. Conclusion: Buffalo's forward core is deeper and more talented. I do agree with Granato that offense is harder than defense. I think because of the loss of 2 of their top 6, Boston will have issues throughout the year compensating. Buffalo on the other hand will only get stronger offensively as the year goes on. Kulich and Quinn are only going to get closer to Buffalo. Once April hits, Benson, Savoie, maybe Östlund become options if injuries appear. There is just so much talent coming and Boston really can't say the same. Defensively Boston is ahead and it might last for a couple of years. I think Novikov and Power are the wild cards. If they both elevate their games by next year Buffalo can be better on defense. This year though, I think Boston is better but it is closer with the loss of Orlov and Clifton and the additions of year 2 power and Clifton. All in all I think Buffalo has more potential this year to be better than Boston. Boston though is a veteran team so they know how to win and have a good defense and goaltending tandem. In the end, I might lean towards Boston as being better but think the gap is far closer now than it was last year. Depends on how much regression occurs in Buffalo's scoring versus how much growth from the young guns we get compared to how quickly Boston comes together and if they can somehow not fall off the age cliff. I guess we shall see but I don't view Boston as the juggernaut they were. They remind me a lot of 2007 Buffalo Sabres where Briere and Drury left and the bottom dropped.

Forward BRAD MARCHAND PAVEL ZACHA DAVID PASTRNAK JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK CHARLIE COYLE JAKE DEBRUSK A.J. GREER MORGAN GEEKIE TRENT FREDERIC MILAN LUCIC PATRICK BROWN OSKAR STEEN Defense MATT GRZELCYK CHARLIE MCAVOY HAMPUS LINDHOLM BRANDON CARLO DEREK FORBORT KEVIN SHATTENKIRK

Bergeron retired. We took one of their defenders. I don't think goalies will be enough to make up for that. In fact, I'll predict worse numbers from the goalies in Boston. It doesn't matter. No one is interested in doing a comparison. It's just, last year Boston was good so they're still good.

Should compare the Bruins roster side by side with Sabres. See how they stack up.

Saw the Finland roster earlier, no surprise Leinonen isn't there.

I'm more angry now that Quinn is injured. He's gonna be better than several of the guys listed ahead of him.

If I were Boston, I'd be calling on player like Mitts. Pick the goalie you want, trade the other.

Bergeron ends his career with: Regular Season: 1294 games, 427 goals, 613 assists, 1040pts Playoffs: 170 games, 50 goals, 78 assists, 128pts Total points = 1168pts His only negative +/- season was in 2006 where he was -28. Everything else was positive and he is a 6 time Selke winner.

Shootout to @That Aud Smell for posting it first. This is a good read btw.

As an addition, let us take a look at Jack Quinn. Since Jack is the potential player being replaced by Olofsson we should understand what he brings at 5v5 and all even strength. 5v5 GF/60 = 3.24 GA/60 = 3.38 GF% = 48.94% At all Even Strength (3v3, 4v4, 5v5) GF/60 = 3.17 GA/60 = 3.52 GF% = 47.42% At 21 years old and a rookie, Quinn outperformed Olofsson at 27 and a 4 year NHL veteran. I think this shows that part of the issue is team defense as both Quinn and Olofsson have at least a ballpark average for GA/60 that is comparable. The interesting though is this all started with a discussion of Olofsson's GF/60 and his GF/60 isn't as good as Quinn's. Olofsson averaged about 30 more seconds a game in TOI (one shift basically) so I am a little surprised at that. Anyways, my point is that I am not convinced that Olofsson is a good replacement for Quinn's role. I would most likely put Mitts in that spot. Mitts 5v5 GF/60 = 3.13 GA/60 = 3.13 GF% = 50% All Even GF/60 = 3.31 GA/60 = 3.53 GF% = 48.39% One last thing, these numbers are specifically ON ICE that I am quoting. That means if you are on the ice and a goal is scored you win, so in a way they are impacted by who and when you are on the ice. Individual rates are as follows for 5v5: Mitts: 0.55 GF/60 and 1.77 AF/60 Olofsson: 1.42 GF/60 and 0/47 AF/60 Quinn: 0.9 GF/60 and 1.17 AF/60 This leads to the question, do you want a setup guy like Mitts with better defensive metrics on line 2. Or do you want a pure shooter like Olofsson with defensive liability on line 2 in place of Quinn who is really a balance between both of the mentioned players? With Cozens and JJP there, I would lean towards Mittelstadt.

I can't think of any goaltender who's gone for 2 first round picks in the modern era. Luongo went for 1 and he was better than Hart.

Olofsson at 5v5 specifically. This rules out 3v3 or 4v4 toi from above. Olofsson did get some 3v3 toi in OT so this only looks at your average run of the mill 5v5 hockey. GF/60 = 2.41 GA/60 = 3.68 GF% = 39.53% Final note. Olofsson's GA/60 have gone up every year under Granato. My guess is the faster pace of his breakout and attacking system is ill suited to olofsson. He did better under Krueger who really focused on... uhh boring hockey. Really a team like the NYI could use olofsson to good effect I think. He can be protected by others and used as the trigger man.

There's Goals For per60 and Goals Against per60. Often abbreviated as gf/60 and ga/60. Olofsson at even strength 2023: GF/60 = 2.71 GA/60 = 3.93 GF% = 40.82% He's a net negative at even strength and has been for 3 years. 2021: 36.36% 2022: 43.40% Have to go back to 2020 to find a positive even strength goal differential.

It's dough proofing. When you make fresh pizza dough, you measure it out and let it proof overnight so it gets to where it needs to be. You can also cheat and leave it out for a few hours. Unproofed dough doesn't stretch as well and impo tastes chewey.

Note he's not comparing Caufield to Benson. They have different comps but something to look at.

The last part is obnoxious. We're all aware there is no real message rule on what someone can say on a player. This isn't a court, it's the internet. To the rest, I actually agree that seems fair. I don't think he'll pan out but I understand why some do. However I'll double down on listing size as an attribute rings a little hollow when it comes to upl.

I'm not, in fact I think it's a fallacy to blindly trust someone's judgements because they were right on something else. It's always better to use the information you have to judge the new situation on its own merits. Biron has been pretty clear on why he's not a UPL fan and I agree with him. All hockey players have raw tools to succeed, most drafted players don't. I'm not saying you said he's big so he'll be good, I'm saying we need to stop using size as a justification for why a goalie might succeed with patients. The Sabres could have drafted Dustin Wolf in the 7th and he's better than UPL. He's smaller though but he has other tools that make him better. What other tool besides being 6'4" is UPL bringing to the table? Glove hand is slow. He's not great on his edges but he's average. His rebound control is bad. His puck tracking is meh. Recovery is slow. I'm honestly asking, what does UPL bring in his tool box outside of size?

We gotta stop assuming just because a goalie has size they'll develop into anything. I think UPL has a low ceiling and a low floor. I'm over the idea of wasting Savoie on the bench until he can play 5 games and Rochester and then go to the wjc, a team he didn't make last year. If he doesn't make it, send him back to the whl in October.

I'm really curious on what JJP is this year. Should be far better and be able to help Cozens more.

I wonder when the Sabres will have the roster for release.