LGR4GM

This came out of a conversation in another thread but as we go into a new season I think it is a good idea to review where we sit in regards to our "peers". In this instance peers meaning other teams in the middle of rebuilds in our own division. Ottawa, Detroit, and Buffalo are all relatively close in that regards and fit what I am talking about. It is assumed that 1 of the 3 will finally break into the playoffs (more could). So the question is at this point in time, who is further along in their rebuild and ready to be a playoff team? How would you rank the 3 teams listed in order from most likely to be a playoff team to least likely? To help, here are some useful stats from last season to look at. This will give you the team numbers and individual player stats for the season. Buffalo: https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/BUF/2023.html 91 point season Detroit: https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/DET/2023.html 80 point season Ottawa: https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/OTT/2023.html 86 point season Finally we have key additions and subtractions. Some of the key additions or subtractions happened near the trade deadline but are included because they should be. Buffalo Additions: Connor Clifton LHD, Erik Johnson RHD, Jordan Greenway LW, and Devon Levi G. Potentially Savoie, Rousek, or Kulich as additions as well with Ryan Johnson also a possibility. Buffalo Subtractions: Ilya Lyubhskin RHD, Jack Quinn IR (I am including Quinn here because he will be out until the new year most likely and might not be back up to speed until March or later, there's a very real chance he loses the entire season to this injury) Detroit Additions: Alex DeBrincat LW/RW, JT Compher C, Justin Holl RHD, Shayne Gostisbehere LHD, David Perron LW, Daniel Sprong RW, James Reimer G. Potentially Simon Edvinsson LHD and Marco Kasper C could also be added to this team. Detroit Subtractions: Pius Suter C, Dominik Kubalik LW, Filip Hronek RHD, Alex Nedeljkovic G Ottawa Additions: Dominik Kubalik LW, Jakob Chychrun LHD, Vladimir Tarasenko RW, Joonas Korpisalo G, Josh Norris C (returning from shoulder surgery which sidelined him most of last year). Ridley Greig C is also an addition after playing 20games last season. Ottawa Subtractions: Alex DeBrincat LW/RW, Derick Brassard C, Cam Talbot G I think I got most of the big moves that teams made.

He's the example of size being a detriment. He's too small to handle the contact and not fast or smart enough to escape it.

He'll score 20ish goals while being soft as butter in the sun. Idk if he survives the trade deadline.

Sorry but for me without knowing the source or methods and only have this to go off of, doesn't really hold much weight. If u had that information, it would be different.

Okposo, Tage, Tuch, Skinner, E. Johnson, Dahlin, can all have this conversation. It's also something you learn by doing, not being told about.

This is just blatantly false. Like, it's straight bull crap.

The Sabres top 2 scorers are Tage and Skinner, both seasoned vets. They also have Tuch who's Debrincat in this scenario. Cozens is already better than Copp or Compher. Mitts is comparable. Yup their defense is old. But Dahlin is a veteran and so are Clifton and Johnson. They have built the team to... be a bubble team now and in the future. I just don't see how a team that finished behind us is further ahead.

Im not sure how you get Ottawa or Detroit in front of Buffalo in terms of development.

20g, 35a and better defensively for JJP

I had a friend do this with Bills tickets. He has seasons, he picks the 4-5 games he wants to go to and then he sells the rest at a markup and basically breaks even on his seasons.

Drafting and continuing to waste assets on rb and de while basically ignoring the offensive line is a major reason for ppls concern.

No. A 27-30g, 70pt player isn't the same as a 20g, 50pt player. Just my feelings

This was a draft analysis by... who? Can I see how they came to these conclusions? Or do I just have to accept an author-less chart with no methodology posted to an internet forum? Ok, can you post some other examples that don't include the Allen draft?

Bingo.

Again, I can't vote because I think the most likely option isn't there. He will be given a 2-5 game experience tour and sent back to jrs. I suppose option 2 covers that. I think Savoie and Benson doing 1 more year of jrs will be very good and prep both for the 2024 NHL season.

The Buffalo Bills are a global brand and about to get a new stadium, the NFL isn't going to move them anytime soon and a new owner won't want. There's a brand there that not every NFL team has. The Sabres are the closest team to Toronto and as I have said before, media market size is going to become so much less important over the next 5-10 years as you'll be able to watch your team anywhere at anytime. It will be less about how many ppl in Buffalo watch the Sabres and become how many ppl watch the Sabres.

Honestly I hope this is the true assessment and Tuch still has another level above last year, I am just skeptical of a 27yr old with 6 NHL seasons to his name being able to take a leap above what he has this past season.

There isn't the option I think he will be at so I won't be voting. Tuch will regress slightly and I think if he hits 30g that would be great but 27g and 70pts seems to be where I feel comfortable placing him and that is outside of a top 10 RW if scoring does the same thing again this year. Again, he doesn't drop off a ton but just a little as teams focus more on that top line and space is less.

I am still mad Wolf wasn't drafted by Buffalo. Levi, played for a college team that wasn't the powerhouses of college hockey and the only reason Wolf isn't with Levi right now (both are 6') is because Wolf DESTROYED the AHL. I think looking at that list I would go: Wolf, Levi, Askarov, Wallstedt. Here btw was Elite Prospects (EP) Rinkside list of the top 15 goalies: https://eprinkside.com/2023/08/25/ranking-the-nhls-top-15-affiliated-goaltender-prospects-in-2023 Devon Levi Dustin Wolf Lukas Dostal (haven't watched any on him so can't give a good opinion) Jesper Wallstedt Yaroslov Askarov Joseph Woll Pyotr Kochetkov Nico Daws Trey Augustine Dylan Garand Arturs Silov Ivan Prosvetov Jaxson Stauber Joel Hofer Hugo Alnefelt Eric Portillo was an honorable mention. I think Greenway - Krebs - Rousek could be an exceedingly effective line. I think Greenway - Krebs - Benson would be nightmare fuel for other teams trying to match lines if Greenway can get back to 100% (his conditioning was not where we need it).

I think I can help. If you are a forward who is 5'11" or smaller, you must have McDavid level skating speed (note I said speed). If you are 6'-6'2" you have have NHL average skating speed. If you are 6'3" or taller you have to not fall over when you skate ("skates good for his size"). That's about how he ranks skating. He very often ignores all the other aspects of skating such as stride extension, ankle flexion, acceleration, and edge work. Jeff Skinner is not a blazing skater at the end of the day. He is speedy but he isn't Jack Eichel fast for example. So is his skating worse than? No, because his edgework and ability to elude using his skating is elite and that means he can play the game in different ways. Next if you are small (remember above) you have to have a trait that is truly elite such as shot... basically just shot. If you are in the middle tier of size you can be flawed as long as you possess something good (passing, compete, shot, Hockey IQ maybe). If you are in the top tier, just don't fall when you skate. Okay, I just with the last one. Basically small players have to be great, middle players have to be good, and tall players have to be above average. So Bedard is above great, he's elite. Benson is great (he is elite in IQ and Compete so I don't worry like Pronman) but because he is only great, above average tall guys are "better". Size is overshadowing other variables. Finally, he projects every single top tier (size) person to be physical. 6'4" and 200lbs as an 18yr old, oh you can drive inside and such. All small players he makes comments like "perimeter player" or "because of size X won't be able to get inside in the NHL" even though that isn't the case. So the basic premise of Pronman's work is, how big are they? Can the pull away on breakaways? Do they shoot good? When it comes to goalies it is all about "how tall are they?" And if you don't meet his prototypical size restraints, you have to have certain traits (the breakaway speed) or he drops you faster than a sack of potatoes. Basically Pronman has major size and skating biases that don't actually represent how the game of hockey gets played. The only other factor to toss in here, is perception. If a player is perceived as good Pronman will give them a bump up. It is why he ranks Luke Hughes over Owen Power even though Owen Power just played top 2 minutes in the NHL and was fine. I take Pronman's stuff with a grain of salt and it is why I have really moved towards EP Rinksides' lists and info. I think they are better about understanding skating, breaking down true weaknesses in players games, and also recognizing that not all tall guys are physical. Disclaimer: Being 6'3" allows Cozens to do things that 5'10" Benson won't be able to do, just like 6'6" Power can do stuff that a 5'10" Bryson cannot do. Size has advantages but there are increasing ways to deal with them. Do I wish Benson was 6'1", yes I do. But I won't write him off the way Pronman does simply because he isn't.

Lol, Levi at 165 and Benson at 64. Those are things the Athletic could write, they'd be wrong, but the could write them.

Dahlin is going to really blow the doors off the league this year. Highly underrated.

Leinonen is injured. Out until October.

We already moved on. Maybe you should too.