LGR4GM

When thinking about drafts you need to hit on your first rounders in 8-9 out of 10 drafts. Your second rounds in 5/6 out of 10 drafts. Third rounders about 2-3 out of 10 and after that if you get 2 guys every 10 drafts or so that aren't just replacement level, you've done fairly well. One of the issues we and everyone has is that we measure a successful pick by games played which is bad. There's lots of big bottom line guys drafted in the 5th who get like 250NHL games between 4-5 teams over a 5 year career but that doesn't mean they were super impactful. I think top 9 forwards and top 5 defenders are really what you need to be drafting and what I am thinking about when I created those numbers. You basically need 2.2 NHL players per draft (which is actually fake because when you get a Dahlin that counts because he won't have a 7yr career barring injury so he's the equivalent of finding 2 players because he's gonna play until he's 35 or so). This means that you need 2 players from each draft and then every 3rd or 4th draft you need a third to keep your team well stocked with cheap incoming talent. So 2018 you get Dahlin who again is going to play so much and have such an impact you can get away with that being your only guy. However Buffalo gets Samuelsson so there is 2 guys. 2019 you get Cozens and hopefully R Johnson so again you have 2 guys, you are doing okay. 2020 you get Quinn and Peterka and that again is 2 guys and 2 guys that are top 6 so you nice drafting. We gotta be careful now though because we haven't gotten 3 yet and we are at the 4th draft in a row. You get Owen Power and maybe Rosen and Novikov... there's a chance there for 3 and that would be perfect. 2017 is the last 3 for with Mitts, Bryson, UPL. 2022, Savoie and Kulich are def playing NHL games with Östlund and Komarov as potential too. You get 4 here, great job, you get 2, you still did good. 2023, Benson is already in the NHL because he's a top 4 guy who fell and Wahlberg has a good chance of playing NHL games with Strbak also with a good chance, again, you might have 3 but even if only 2 hit you are fine. That is how to really think about drafts. Did you get 2 players? Good if they are even middle 6 or 4-6 defenders, and great if they are above that (Quinn and JJP). If you get 3 players, excellent. You need to hit on your 1st round pick basically 8/9 out of 10 and 2nd rounders 5/6 out of 10. The rest if you can manage to find a guy every 3rd-ish draft, sweet, you are drafting great. You can hit AKA Bryson or you can really hit AKA Peterka, so context will always matter with these numbers. Edit: I want to note that trades can make that 3rd player every 3-4 drafts irrelevant and guys like Dahlin or Benson who barring injury will have 15year or more careers, also can off-set needing that 3rd guy from a draft. I think since 2022, Buffalo's drafting looks better and if Forton truly is in charge, than credit to him. The Leinonen picks really hurts what could have been just a phenomenal 2022 draft (there's 3-4 guys right there that will be NHL guys) where Buffalo could have walked away with 4-5 players. You get 5 NHL players from 1 draft, holy *****, have a beer.

Considering the first draft this applies to is the 2022 draft, there should be no surprise that those guys haven't made the NHL yet. Only 9 players from that draft have even played more than 10 NHL games. The lowest drafted being #54 who is also the only one outside the 1st round to play over 10 games. I'd argue against counting the 2021 draft due to Covid and the 2020 draft, Adams had 5 picks, 3 of which were pick 131 or later. Obviously Quinn and JJP hit which has really helped the team because if either missed you would have had a very meh draft.

Hope Power learns a thing or two about Dahlin's growth and development and takes that next step. Dahlin, IMPO deserves the C.

I always turn up by that Honda dealer or whatever is and loop out and around and come back in by Charlie's to avoid downtown. Then up over the hills and into PY. I would note that Keuka lake is busy but during the week (Mon-Thurs) even in the summer, it is much more chill. It has the advantage of not being as close as Canandaigua to Rochester or as close to the 90 as Seneca. I remember being on Keuka in the summer during the week and on a calm day with almost no boats out, I could see 200ft down to the bottom just off the bluff. All I can say is whoever you are, protect the lakes and urge others to use them responsibly. As someone who has spent time outside of NYS, the lakes we have are truly rare and precious things.

Jiri Kulich is ridiculously young still. Not quite like just turned 19 Zach Benson but Kulich only turned 20 and the number of 18-19yr olds in the AHL is... 8. There were 8 guys who played 15 or more AHL games this past year. I filtered to 15 games to get rid of all the guys who show-up at the end of years to get some games in like our own Noah Östlund. 8 players in his age group and Jiri Kulich was 2nd in points (45pts) behind former 4th overall pick Shane Wright (47pts). He's 2nd on the list in total points and in ppg where Wright edges him out 0.80ppg to 0.79ppg. Other names here might sound familiar, we have Kemell with 41pts in 10 more games, Kasper with 35pts in 15more games, and Miroshnichenko with 25pts in 10 less games. Kulich was matching the play of a former 4th overall pick. That is some solid play then from our young friend Mr. Kulich. My point for this part is that Kulich is among rare company in that not a lot of 19yr olds play full time in the AHL and Even in a year that some consider not as good (Kulich's ppg actually went from .74 to .79 so he did improve and we aren't even into his defensive game) But what about someone closer to home? Someone we know and have seen make great strides in both the AHL and NHL. A player who like Kulich comes out of a smaller Euro league (aka not the SHL or its affiliates). Someone who also played in the AHL at 19 and has similarities in their game to Kulich... the one and the only John Jason Peterka. JJP's bday is in Jan so we still use the how old he is in October and count that entire season as his 19yr old season. Kulich is easier with a April bday because his 19yr old season is really his 19yr old season. For JJP that means his 19yr old season is the 2021-22 AHL year he played. Now JJP is lucky because he played the previous 2years in the German DEL meaning he was coming in with 2 years of professional hockey. Kulich played his 18yr season in the AHL, so he was also coming in with a full professional year and the year before was in the Czechia league which is Czechia's highest league. Again we are comparing 2 players from Europe, at the same age with almost the same level of pro experience. Let's do this. JJ Peterka was able to put up 28g and 68pts in his 19yr AHL season. That was good enough for a rate of 0.97ppg and 0.4gpg. Jiri Kulich at the same age in the AHL was able to do 45pts in 57games for a rate of 0.79ppg and 0.47gpg. As we can see Peterka was much better in terms of generating assists and tbh, I think that is helped by playing with 20yr old Jack Quinn, the guy who dropped 26g in 45 games with JJP. What I found interesting is that where Peterka was able to generate more assists, which I believe demonstrates his better vision, Kulich demonstrated his superior shot. While we can see that Peterka was or is perhaps a better player, Kulich is still in the ballpark and certainly in the finishing department. While I believe Jiri Kulich should spend another year in the AHL to round out his burgeoning 200ft game, I think he is trending towards a solid middle player with very real top 6 upside, and he has some size (lots of complaints about our prospects size). Jiri Kulich isn't the 5'11" 182lbs prospect anymore, but the 6'1" 185lb developing pro. I won't say his overall game will be as good as Peterka but he isn't far off and his finishing ability might be better than a guy who just dropped 28g in the NHL at 22. I'll leave with EPs 2022 scouting report:

Keuka Lake is nice. Warmer than Seneca and less crowded than Canandaigua.

I don't think Forton has been bad at drafting, I'm just not convinced he's been good. Dallas is good at drafting, Buffalo went from terrible under Murray to maybe league average? Granted we can't even judge the 2022 of 2023 draft well, yet.

They need to move for the simple fact of change for changes sake.

There's a curve but yes.

5'11" 189lb Konsta Helenius, "a diminutive play driver" 6' 197lb Cole Eiserman, "strong enough for the NHL" ... yea cuz those 8lbs and 1" are the difference. Just find how scouts literally have a seizure once a player drops below 6' as interesting and clear evidence of bias.

Rasmus Dahlin, we know.

It is right about league average because of how high we picked.

If I have to chose between Quinn, Benson, and JJP? I pick Benson. If Byram is a stud you can easily trade Owen Power to probably a dozen NHL teams.

I would say that you need to remember that in 2022-23, Iginla was 16 and getting 18pts in 48 games in the WHL is not terrible at that age. He was probably getting limited minutes and was also probably lacking in physical maturity. Remember, he won't be 18 until August 1 so he is only 45 days shy of being 2025 eligible. Still, you are correct in wondering if he will sustain or improve since we do only have the 1 good year. I think with Sennecke measuring around 6'2.5" that there is little chance he slides to 11. Teams are going to watch the Florida Panthers and and ask themselves if their forwards are big/strong enough to drive inside on them and the answer will always be no.

7 years? The 2017 draft is meh but I suppose getting UPL and Mitts out of it is nice. I think UPL is more luck than anything but still credit where credit is due. 2018 is Samuelsson at #32 and that's it. Dahlin doesn't count because a monkey with a clipboard throwing bananas at a wall could have gotten that right so, meh fine. 2019... well we got Cozens, so that's it. 2020 is Quinn and JJP which is a good draft but I think Adams is the driving force there, maybe not. 2021 might get Power, Rosen and Novikov but there is a lot of misses there. Covid year and the analytics department was just being built. 2022... Topias Leinonen is such a bad mark on that board it really takes away from all the good like Savoie, Östlund, Kulich, Komarov. Solid draft. 2023 gives us Benson, Wahlberg, and Strbak whom I like. I see a shift in drafting starting once Adams ends up in charge and accelerating in 2022. Man in 2022 if Luca Del Belluz had been the pick, it would have been a really really excellent draft. He put up 31pts in 58games for his rookie AHL season. Which should also remind us that Rosen with 50pts in 67 and Kulich with 45 in 57 also are really solid players with an NHL chance. I am not convinced that a guy who has been in Buffalo since 2014 is responsible for the drafting from 2017 to present and there are a few years before Karmanos/Ventura that look really questionable. My point is the same as yours though, if people like Ventura and Karmanos leave, this team will be worse and we should run for the hills.

Helenius would be a great pickup at 11. He's only 1 year away and he already has a 200ft game that could slot him into an NHL 3/4 line in 2025.

My issue is the list of "coming up" while also including Skinner as locked up. Dude has 3 years left and Tuch has 2... so my point is Skinner is not locked up and after this season is probably being bought out so that's only 5. My hope is they trade Jeff this offseason but probably Forton and Pegula like him so they will put up roadblocks or some such shenanigans. Tuch doesn't have to be signed long term. UPL shouldn't be. Byram hasn't shown he should be. Levi hasn't shown he should be. That leaves Quinn, Peterka, and Benson. Benson has 2 years left at least. So is having 8 guys locked up for 5+ years really a massive problem? I suppose it depends on the contracts but my point is UPL, Levi, Tuch, and to this point Byram don't need to be locked up long term. We have fallen into this habit of viewing everyone as needing a 7+ year deal and they simply don't. IMPO anything 5 years or less is not long term. Levi and UPL shouldn't get 5+ years because goalies. Tuch shouldnt because age. Byram shouldnt because he hasn't been good yet.

maybe forcing fans to have 6 different TV subscriptions to watch games is bad? Or making tickets to random Wednesday games on November 90$ plus fees isn't a great busy model?

I guess we'll see what happens. If Karmanos goes though, we're at DEFCON 1.

He's 6' 186lbs. I wouldn't call him small. No, I think he'll go top 10 as several scouts noted they came away more impressed with Zeev than Levshunov. That said, nhl scouts are notorious for having set definitions based on player size. So could be fall to 11, yes. Should he, no. He might be the best defender in the class and he's only going to get better with age. If I were Buffalo and he's there, draft him. Worry about who of Byram and Power your trading next year.

What a ***** joke. I hope Terry sells the team.