LGR4GM

This is why teams use xgf% because it contextualizes shots. The Devils got worse analytically after Ruff left too. I like Lindy a lot and I'm hoping for the best.

The pp was trash in 22-23 too. It just had like a 6 week period of tage olofsson one timers to mask how awful it was.

Can I be honest? I don't care. They didn't do this over a full season and it's been 13 years of them not doing it over a full season.

I'd argue the SHL is better than Liiga

Prospect ranking isn't about who's closest to the NHL imo.

You wanna take the over on everyone, I don't. We're a forward short still.

Almost all these guys were 18 or 19 in their first year. Comparing them to guys who are 24 as rookies and now 25 or 26 seems flawed. Age matters here.

I think some of those players are A. Old and B. At or over 200 so we know what they bring. Said another way, I don't suddenly expect Krebs to score a bunch.

Because the rookie year is almost always for everyone low compared to what comes after. It's skewing things. They are not what?

Methodology is flawed. Take the rookie year out completely. I'd do years 2-3 and then their last 3 years (whatever that looks like) Also you can take Eichel and Reinhart out, they did exactly what 2nd overall players should. Dropping Reinhart is still one of the dumbest decisions Adams made and I like Levi.

Yes, but you can just cancel them out because Skinner and Mitts in this scenario are taking opportunities away from the other forwards which probably equates to let's say 10 goals. I was tempted to do this by g/60 but it gets confusing so sh and sh% was what I went with. Updating to Skinner and Mitts puts us at 240g compared to 202 without him in the forwards but takes us down to about 38goals in the defense. Mitts and Skinner on this team probably = playoffs. There is more scoring depth in that scenario. Again, we are seeing that Buffalo really needs 1 more forward to comfortably put us on a scoring pace that should equal playoffs. Right now even with GA's adjustments, we are still sitting at around 250-260 goals which is most likely just outside the playoffs or we just squeak in. I don't like the margin for error.

@GASabresIUFAN I adjusted numbers based on your thoughts. Here are the updated totals.

Let's take out Lafferty and Kubel. Now the issue here would be opportunity for other players which might drop their shots down but that gives you about 30ish extra goals after you account for 10-12 of Byram's goals disappearing too. Gives us about 240goals at forward (again this is a rough estimate).

@GASabresIUFAN if I give Tuch a 11.5% and bump up Byram to 105 shots that gives us about 4-5 extra goals. Again, though that implies NO one else drops below their numbers. We can do that, who are you taking out?

Your theory is the same theory as Kevyn Adam's. That guys will internally improve, they could but you need a lot of ppl to improve while NO one gets worse. 20 goals have to come from somewhere. Byram could outproduce that. He hasn't to this point though.

I used the last 3 years average on hockey reference and I adjusted them as I saw fit.

I didn't average their first 200 games. Also, your theory is everyone gets better, they don't.

No you shouldn't to all the bolded. Most of those guys are either A. old or B. over 200 games already.

In 2023 the Sabres goal totals dropped. They had 293goals in 2022 and only 244goals in 2023 for a drop of 49g. Obviously as a result this team was worse. The question is do they have enough scoring to get back up closer to the 290 mark? And also how many goals do they need to just make the playoffs? Let's answer the 2nd question first, right around 270g is a solid number to make the playoffs. Last year 12 of the playoff teams had 270+/-5 or higher in goals with only 4 teams falling below that. For Buffalo then the goal should be 270g. Now the first question, do we have enough scoring for 290, no. Not unless you think the defense is going to put up about 100 goals. Right now I have the Sabres defense coming in around 40goals+/-5. The forwards clock in around 198goals+/-10. If you give everyone the benefit of the doubt and math it out we end up at 253goals as the max and 238 as the minimum. The only way to exceed that 253 top end is either A. to bring in more scoring (which is why everyone wants another 20-30g scorer) or B. up the number of shots the team takes, especially their top guys. I think asking Lindy to create a system with more shots is possible. I also think that Quinn and Benson are wild cards because there is not enough shots and goals for their career sh% number to have much stability. Is Quinn going to get 23g or can he exceed that? What about Benson only getting 17? Is it possible Buffalo can hit that 270 threshold with the current roster? Sure, we are 17 goals away at the top end. If players stay healthy and Ruff is good, we could do it. But players will get injured and frankly there is a lack of proven depth. Can we get to 270 with the current roster? Yes. There is a path there with some modest improvements to get the extra 20ish goals we need. I would feel a lot better about it though if we brought in 1 more top 6 forward. Last part: You may ask how I got these numbers? I took every players career sh% (some got a little bump due to their last few years being clear signs of improvement) and then roughed out their average shots. A few due to lack of data require some guesstimation work but in the end I will post what I got in the raw numbers for debate. I didn't used games played as I feel that shots and sh% are better. Players can miss games and make up for them with shots or a better shot percentage. I also think sh% and shots is more stable.

Cozens had 31 when he shot at 14.7% on 211shots. Cozens typically seems to shoot at 10%ish considering his other years. Now last year he managed just 9% and managed less shots with 200 even. So if I use his career av sh% of 10.4% and toss in 200 shots it gets me... about 21 goals. So either he has 2 years of below average sh% which seems unlikely or he has to up his total by about 100. If Cozens dropped a 22-25g season, I would consider that very successful. If he figured out his shot and drops 30g+ than I would be surprised and very happy. Either he shoots more (by a lot) or he has to improve his shot by about 5%. Hence my response. PS. to anyone who tries to the "what about TAGE!" in response. I wrote multiple posts about Tage's sudden increase in scoring and how his sh% was more likely to be in the range for when his points went up. That isn't what is happening here. Cozens has already taken 571 shots in the last 3 years so his sh% is probably starting to stabilize around that 10.4%.

9th overall

I would be surprised if Cozens had 30g.

87 points seems like a logical outcome. Even with Quinn and Benson, Buffalo just isn't experienced enough or talented enough. Injuries will happen to someone and that depth replacing it is bad or untested.