dudacek

To the bold, you are renting Hellebuyck for an entire season, not just a playoff run. You’re also acquiring him to get you into the playoffs. I haven’t seen a single fan or analyst advocating acquiring Hellebuyck for the equivalent of two top 13 picks and a young goalie, or signing him to an $80 million contract. I will bet good money the actual price = acquisition or contract - is nowhere near this, It is a horrible exaggeration of his market value and a false argument.

I disagree with your 1st point: not that some will wash out, just with the math. NHL players on ELCs or long-term deals take up 10 roster spots, while Mittelstadt, Dahlin, Jokiharju and UPL remain under team control when their contracts expire and increase that total to 14. There is not enough room for the 6 1st rounders (Savoie, Östlund, Kulich, Rosen, Johnson and 13) to graduate in the next 2 or 3 years, never mind the 5 recent 2nds, and tthe deeper cuts like Novikov and Rousek. Your 2nd point is mostly correct; very few goalies have garnered that return, period, regardless of coontract. Goalies of Hellebuyck calibre rarely reach free agency or get moved, making comparables, or recent ones at least, tough.

I’m not sure there is a team out there willing and able to give a goalie $8 million. At least that’s how things are trending. Only Bobrovsky, Vasilevkiy, Murray, Gibson and Hellebuyck make more than $6, and 3 of those guys are considered bad contracts. Murray was the most recent and that was 3 years ago. Markstrom and Binnington got 6 2 years ago and that was probably bad value too. Would Helle take 7.5 over 6 from Chicago or Detroit over 6.5 over 5 from an emerging Buffalo team he just took to the 2nd round? Probably, but there is a window of possibility for the Sabres. More to the point though is whether the Sabres close enough to contention, and rich enough in prospects to “rent” him for a year to fuel a real run at a special season and all the development opportunities that may bring for the core that is already here, not to mention the business and the fanbase? As opposed to the negative repercussions on same if Levi and whatever stopgap he plays with fail to deliver? I agree it is counterintuitive to our perception of Adams, but that doesn’t mean it’s not a lost opportunity.

Lot of negative assumptions here. ”Goalies”might be fickle, “Hellebuyck” has been anything but. Dude has had 7 seasons as an NHL starter and never had a year worse than .907 (his 1st year as a starter) or 24 wins (a COVID season). His career averages are 32 wins and .916. A significant regression to a career worst year is still a significant upgrade on UPL or Comrie. This is what I mean about looking past his talent. Pick 13, UPL and Kisakov or something similar is not “a king’s ransom”. It’s the type of price one pays for a first liner but not a star player. It’s possible one or more of those pieces are good. But it is highly less likely any of those pieces are part of the Sabres core 3 years from now - or even beyond - than Hellebuyck would be. But the biggest negative assumption is that we would sign Hellebuyck to a Bob contract. In order to earn such a contract Hellebuyck would have to have an impact season with the Sabres, the type of season that would justify the trade price. The Sabres would be in a position to either sign him to a deal that makes sense under their cap, or walk and pass the baton to Levi, who would be in a much better position to take it. Hellebuyck, coming off a bad year would be in no position to ask for such a contract. Coming off a good year, he would be more likely to take a team-friendly deal in Buffalo because things here “worked” and he has his desired “chance to win”. Sure there’s a chance he doesn’t provide contender -calibre goaltending next year, he walks and the Sabres give up the next Matt Savoie plus for nothing. But there’s a better chance they give up the next Drew Stafford to be a contender next year while giving Levi a buffer and exploring the potential of something longer term with Hellebuyck. Thanks, I think you’ve convinced me that I’m on board with trading 13 for Hellebuyck. He’s the closest thing we’re going to get to a playoff guarantee at a cost we can afford.

Very interesting proposal. As a rule, trading top 20 picks for a rental is poor asset management, but @Thorny makes a very cogent argument as to why this situation dictates an exception: the Sabres have an excess of young “top 20” talent; trading from this pool is inevitable, and selling high (meaning flipping for an obvious roster upgrade as opposed to depth pieces or more futures) is wise the Sabres are on the brink of something special with a very obvious question mark in net as a potential impediment. Conner Hellebuyck is really ***** good, as in as good at his position as Dahlin is at his - the type of player who rarely comes on the market. I’m kinda surprised at the number of people looking past this. My initial push would be make the deal based around the 2024 1st and up the value of the rest of the package to compensate: 1st, their choice of Leinonen or UPL, and Rosen perhaps? Adding a 4th piece? But I suspect 13 will be necessary in order to outbid other suitors. If I trade 13 for Hellebuyck I’m going to be trying to extend him. If the season goes the way I suspect it will, the fit here may be such for him that his cost may not be exhorbitant.

The kid is not big on specificity, but ultimately says he took his time, considered his options, listened to what others had to say, and decided this is where he wants to be. https://www.buffalohockeybeat.com/sabres-and-city-helped-ryan-johnson-choose-buffalo-right-in-my-heart/ “There’s something special here with the staff and the culture this team has,” said Johnson, who was drafted by the team’s previous regime. “It’s definitely trending on the upward, it’s noticeable. And also it’s cool even what’s happened in the city. Buffalo, I know it’s a major sports city and it’s cool seeing that they rallied behind Damar Hamlin, seeing the support of all the fan base. I definitely want to be a part of something like that where’s it’s bigger than the game.”

The amount of posting about the Ryan Johnson “situation” is a textbook example of how the internet abhors a vacuum. We know he could have walked as a free agent in August like any college player could and few do. We know the Sabres offered him a contract last summer that he mulled for a long time then turned down to finish college. We know he did an interview last summer at development camp where he said he liked the Sabres and he planned on signing eventually. We know he was offered another contract in April that he eventually accepted nearly 2 months later. Everything else posted about his character and his thought process is complete and utter speculation based only on the above facts. Nobody knew anything else and in the absence of knowledge leapt to all kinds of wild conclusions. Perception became reality, when really we didn’t have a clue.

Was there any doubt?

This thread has a real loudmouth at the end of the bar vibe. Kyle is still a decent hockey player who supplies a physical strength, cycle game and savvy the team could use more of. His defence was good, his offence can only come in spurts, but those spurts seemed to come at times they were needed. He can help on special teams or move up the lineup in a pinch. Best, most-respected human being on the hockey team. Multiple players called him the best captain they’ve ever played with. The improvement we’ve seen in guys like Krebs and Mitts has his stamp on it. Probably a year where the torch passes and the contract reflects that, but he sets a bar that the kids will have to meet and is the type of player good teams have in their bottom 6. He makes them better. Most people besides Tim Murray understand that matters.

Always thought the return in Montour was odd. Whatever you thought of his play here, he was a top-4 RHD rental at the deadline. That market typically warrants a 2nd.

Novikov is the 7th player to sign from the 2021 draft class, which is highly unusual for a Sabre draft. Poltapov will likely make it 8. Marjala needs to sign by the end of this month or we lose his rights. 2 more years for Von Barnekow and Sardarian. I’d say all three are long shots. The Sabres have signed 3 from 2018 and 2019 and 2 from 2020. I count 6 from each of the 2012, 13 and 14 drafts, with 3 or 4 seeming to be more common most years going way back. 1983 was the Mother Lode: 11 of those picks actually played games for the Sabres..

Favourite late-round pick, based on the one game I watched him play. Him, Kisakov and Neuchev will be an interesting group to watch next year in Rochester as the Sabres continue to nurture their Russian connection. Simashev at 13?

The emerging nations need regular exposure to this level of competition, not once every 3 or 4 years. Its about growing the game.

Last year's depth chart, based on ice time: Tuch Thompson Skinner Cozens Mittelstadt OKposo Olofsson Greenway Quinn Krebs Peterka Girgensons Jost Hinostroza 14 slots, 4 free agents, including the 3 least-used forwards. I think most of us believe Olofsson could be moved. To me, the Sabres enter the off-season with 9 of 14 forward position locked up, five TBD. Whether Adams will give some or any of the slots to kids, I have no idea, but history suggests there will be a path for any of them earn it.

Athletic reporting Sabres have interest in Hellebuyck. It’s Russo and Duhatschek, plugged in and not generally clickbaiters. https://theathletic.com/4516857/2023/05/15/nhl-offseason-trade-board-hellebuyck-maple-leafs/ Hellebuyck is one of the NHL’s few true No. 1, workhorse goaltenders. He won the Vezina in 2020 and is a finalist again. How much is he going to want on a long-term deal? Currently making $6.16 million, he could command $9 million-plus on the open market. Can the Jets stomach that? If he becomes available, don’t be surprised if Buffalo and New Jersey take big swings. One thing we’ve heard early this offseason is that the Sabres have interest in Hellebuyck, with the belief that a genuine No. 1 goaltender could be the last remaining piece in turning them into contenders. Getting one would also allow them to hold off on turning the reins over to Devon Levi until he’s proven to be NHL-ready. The Jets would want young team-controlled assets in exchange, and the Sabres have plenty of those — from a youngish goaltender in Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to promising talents like Peyton Krebs and even Casey Mittelstadt.

Are you comparing the $49 million they gave Matthews Marner Tavares Nylander Reilly (59% of today’s cap) to the ~$40 million the Sabres gave (will give) Tuch Thompson Cozens Samuelsson Power Dahlin? (~40% of the cap in a few years)? Seems like the Sabres have a wider base and a wider margin for error.

I don't know if I agree. UPL just turned 24 and has played 46 NHL games. Levi has played 7 and is 21. Ullmark, Husso, Markstrom, Grubauer, Merzlikins, Lehner, Binnington (I could go on): did we know what those guys were at those points in their careers?

Agreed. He looks like he might be a better skater and passer than Vic.

Athletic's Montreal writer does a nice dive into the process of finding goalies this morning. https://theathletic.com/4510285/2023/05/11/montreal-canadiens-goalie-of-the-future/ He was looking at the period of 2011 to 2017 because goalies picked after 2017 are, by and large stil developing. The Sabres took 5 goalies in those 7 drafts, pretty much in line with what the thread recommends. Two teams took 8, one took 2. 16 - half the league - took 3 or 4. The only conclusion I can gather from the article is that there's no magic formula for finding them, it usually takes years to determine whether you did, and when they finally arrive, it's more often than not on another team.

So kind of like last year, when we had 4 goalie prospects (UPL, Portillo, Levi and Leinonen) and we watched Levi rise to the top? Taro cited the Sharks as a team with a history of having excess goalies, so I looked them up. They’ve drafted 16 since the year 2000. Just 2 of them have played more than 15 NHL games. Twelve have played no NHL games at all. None of them played a significant role for the Sharks. The thing with goalies is you want “the guy” you want a backup and you want a “potential guy” in the system. The key though is finding the guy. If you don’t have him you need to be spending a lot of time and resources chasing him, like the Sabres have in recent years with Lehner, Ullmark, Johansson, Luukkonnen, Portillo, Levi and Leinonen. Once you get the guy though, the pressure is off because the push for other 2 to be more than they are is more of a want than need.

The skill was always there, but Rosen is finally starting to look like he believes he belongs.

I wouldnt say lucky — because that may mean we pick him over a better player — but I think he's gone before 13 as well. I like him and think he's a reasonable pick in the mid-teens. i also think there will be better players available at 13.

None of you guys wanting a goalie every year are the same guys wanting the Sabres to stop drafting college players are you? You know Portillo skipped town in part because there were 2 other young goalies in the system. Also, you’re not planning on signing all these guys right? Where are you going to develop them if you do?

I’m not sure Reinbacher is among the top 13 prospects in this draft. He’ll be an NHLer, but I think you’re looking at a Marco Scandella-level guy.

Agreed. You only have room for 4 or 5 pro goalies at any one time and only 2 of them will be getting the playing time they need. As long as you have three prospects outside the NHL, you should be fine. The loss of Portillo and the likely early graduation of Levi means the Sabres have adjust.