dudacek

Nope. That's my bad math. Still better, but negligibly. You know me too well. My red flag is definitely hyperbole. 😁 But I'm reading the answer my initial question is that you think he's one of our worst players mostly because of shot attempts?

The team went 9-8-1 with Byram, roughly a 95-point pace, or better than it did with Casey, so trading one of our best players for one of our worst didn't significantly affect team results. What particular thing is it that you and GA seem to be putting so much emphasis on? There must be some analytical metric that was Tweeted out somewhere and got burned into your brains. Since he was acquired, Byram's team rankings over 18 games were: Points: 9, tied for 7th Plus/minus: -1, 14th Shots: 21, 10th Time on Ice: 21:51, 3rd ES TOI: 18:56 3rd Hits: 34, 6th Blocked shots: 29 3rd Shot attempt percentage 46.5, 15th Giveaways: 6 13th Takeaways: 7 8th Penalties drawn: 3 6th Net penalties: -2 15th He was 7th in PP ice time and was on the ice for 3 PP goals He was 10th in SH ice time and wasn't on the ice for a goal against while killing a penalty Those certainly aren't the counting stats (all from NHL.com) of "probably our worst player." i pulled out his evolving Hockey numbers and his expected goals against there aren't good, but they're outweighed by his expected goals for. https://evolving-hockey.com/stats/players/?_inputs_&player="Bowen Byram" I know Ive seem some chart overflowing with red at some point, but I haven't been able to pull it up. It has to be pretty awful and pretty broad to back up the worst player on the team claim in the context of his regular numbers.

I so desperately want the team to justify jumping on his bandwagon. i want Malenstyn slamming guys through the end boards, UPL stoning Marner on a breakaway up a goal in the 3rd period, Krebs sticking Marchand after the whistle, Lindy up on the boards screaming at Jon Cooper, and Quinn sniping one from the left circle to tie things up with the goalie pulled. A year ago Vancouver fandom around here was a morgue, an absolute suicide watch. It was impossible not to be jealous as the team turned the fan base around. I want to be that guy. I just want the Sabres to be fun.

Aside from a few of the usual wedding/birth announcements, it’s been pretty quiet on the social media front. The Swiss camp where Power and Mule joined the Euros seemed to be the only noteworthy thing: the team seemed to have kept a pretty low profile over the summer. Vacation photos were sparse. Public events seemed kept to minimum. The new guys only did their required team zoom calls and I can’t recall a single holdover player giving an interview anywhere. Not even a Risto-style workout video to be found. I’d like that to mean they’ve been all business and focused on getting better. If that’s the case, leadership should be bringing the guys together relatively soon.

We’re about a month away from training camp, and if the past week is any indication, NHL GMs are back at work. Im wondering if anyone has heard or seen any news about players getting back to town, or skating together yet? Really curious about where their heads are as they approach the new season, after maybe being a little too full of themselves last year.

If Lindy is running his top PP out for 90 seconds each penalty, I really hope Thompson, Quinn, Byram and Dahlin are 4 of the guys on it. The unit desperately needs a left-handed pass/shoot/move option opposite Tage and Bo has that skill set.

Agreed, but the Avs already knew of the Sabres interest in Byram. Adams made it clear they had inquired about him going back to the Eichel trade.

And as Byram’s biggest defender around here, I’m not going to argue this point. It’s what I saw too, at least after the first 5 games or so. I don’t think it was a coincidence that his struggles happened not when he first arrived and was just playing, but later when he was trying to learn and adapt to Granato’s system. I’m choosing to give more weight to his talent and his overall body of work and crossing my fingers a training camp under Ruff will address that. He wasn’t drafted with a reputation for poor defence and that wasn’t his reputation in Colorado.

Either that or, as the earlier quote implies, they identified targets to fix their 2C hole, called Adams, and were told “I’d consider trading him, but only under these conditions.” Either way, it’s a far cry from Adams deciding he wasn’t going to re-sign Casey and was determined to dump him on the highest bidder.

Also, indications are that the Avs came looking for Casey, not that the Sabres were shopping him to the highest bidder. The Athletic’s Pierre Lebrun reported this conversation with the Avs GM: The Ryan Johansen experiment was a disaster, but credit to general manager Chris MacFarland for not being stubborn about it and fixing that mistake in-season. “It wasn’t working,” MacFarland told me on March 9, the day after the trade deadline, of the Johansen experiment. “And the 2C spot demanded attention to try and find a solution.” “The Sabres weren’t going to move Mittelstadt for picks or for an older player, and from our standpoint, we know how good Bo is, how good of a person he is, and if it wasn’t for (Devon) Toews and Makar, he would be a top-pairing guy, and would be on a lot of teams.” “But we weren’t going to move Bo for a 30-year-old center on an expiring deal, or a 30-year-old defenseman. It had to be a very specific situation,” added the Avs GM. “It had to be for a young, controllable center. This doesn’t completely contradict your take, but it certainly doesn’t support it. Maybe there are things not being said here. Maybe McFarland is lying, or Adams lied to McFarland, but until other information surfaces, I don’t think we’re going to get much closer to what really went down than this.

Roster-wise, Montreal is in a pretty good position to put Laine in a position to succeed and it doesn't really cost them anything but money. I like this deal for both teams.

I don’t think personnel is going to be an issue. Dahlin and Tage are back and they are guys you build a PP around. Tuch, Cozens, Peterka, Power and Benson were 2, 5, 6, 8, 10 in PP ice time and all have the ability to contribute. Skinner is the only guy gone from the first unit. In my view he was the unit’s weakest link because of poor passing and give and go skills, and his inability to screen goalies, tip pucks and score from distance. As far as I’m concerned, Quinn can score from in tight as well as Skinner can, and is a huge upgrade in the other areas of PP play. Casey was 7th in PP time and Okposo 9th. Byram and Zucker may be better respectively in their slots. The issue last year wasn’t personnel, it was deployment, and that’s what needs to be fixed.

Further to this, Lukkonen and Jokiharju were in the exact same contract situation as Mittelstadt this year. UPL, it appears, was in their long-term plans, but to our knowledge they never really got into serious talks until after the season and they certainly didn't get a deal done prior to the deadline. Jokiharju, it appears, was not in their long-term plans, but it seems they felt no pressure to trade him prior to the deadline.

Bottom 5 team means 75 points at best and likely quite a bit less. Why do you think this team is 10 points worse than last year and 20 worse than 2 years ago?

If you say so. I mean, your scenario is possible, but I'm not aware of any evidence that supports this. Casey was a pending RFA so the fact no contract talks had occurred is not evidence. There was no pressure whatsoever to make a deal at the deadline. Most RFAs in Casey's situation don't sign in-season. There is evidence that Adams was very much in the market for a top-4 offensive defenceman. He had a highly-publicized failed attempt to bring in Jakob Chychrun at the previous deadline. He also said he had been chasing Byram since the Eichel talks. Not evidence, I know, but as relevant as the lack of contract talks. It's pretty clear Adams viewed Casey as a non-core asset, but that's a far cry from someone he was going to avoid re-signing at all costs.

Myers did. Risto did not — took a jump at 22 and continued at the level for 4 years. Not going to repeat the research, but I'm pretty confident the Myers situation happens about as often as getting a Brayden Point in the 3rd round. Of course there are exceptions, but defencemen usually emerge between 22 and 25, and that tends to hold true regardless of whether they enter the league at 18 like Dahlin or 22 like Fox.

Or it’s just Occam’s razor: Adams felt he needed a top 4 D more than he needed a 2nd 2C. When one he liked became available, he traded Casey.

Do you really think Byram peaked at age 20 and his “decline” will continue? Byram’s numbers should include sample size and context and amount to this: 2 similar and pretty impressive seasons of 30 and 42 games cut short by injury, followed by a disappointing 55 games in Colorado prior to his trade. He was .5 P/G in Buffalo. I think Byram’s year last year should be looked at like the year his buddy Cozens had: a disappointment he can and should rebound from. Rasmus Dahlin went from .67 in year 3 to .41 in year 4. When Mittelstadt was around Byram’s age he was getting sent to the minors after 114 NHL games. If the kid is a competitor, bet on his talent. Byram competes. And he is more talented than Mittelstadt.

I don’t like the way Skinner plays and think he’s a poor fit for Lindy hockey. But I’ve never perceived him as a cancer. Cutting him in order to free up cap and roster space for a better fit made sense to me. Cutting him just to move on seems cheap and extraordinarily arrogant.

@nfreeman @SDS@spndnchz Somehow my Skinner Buyout and Big Picture threads got merged and the Buyout poll got lost. Not sure what happened. Is it fixable?

I like how Lindy put it: we have more situational tools. Skinner, Olofsson, Mittelstadt Okposo and Jost were 5 of our slowest players and except for Kyle also some of our softest. They’ve been replaced by Byram, McLeod, Aube-Kubel, Lafferty and Malenstyn, who will be 5 of our fastest players. The latter 3 will likely be our 3 hardest. We have lot more players we can trust to kill a penalty or protect a lead. It’s a dramatic shift which should change our team identity. Its pretty hard not to like it in a vacuum, but it sure puts a ton of pressure on the top 5 forwards to produce because there’s not a lot of offensive upside.

So I’m not completely alone around here. I love me some Jack Quinn, but I think it's kinda weird that Sabrespace has annointed Quinn a surefire stud this year after he put up 58 points In his first 104 games, but is lukewarm about Byram who has 72 in his first 161. Byram is just 3 months older and to my mind has a similar potential to pop. He plays fast and hard and I think he’s better defensively than last years numbers suggest. The team’s biggest need was a top 4 D and I think we got one just before he enters his prime. I like the concept of McLeod: the speed and his fancystats. I think this board overrates what he’s going to bring, but he will be better at protecting leads, transition and penalty killing than Casey was. The team is going to miss Casey’s playmaking, his puck possession and his ability to move up the lineup. And they’ll miss it even more if Cozens or Thompson gets hurt. I do think, however, that the fans are overlooking how some of Casey’s offence is going to be replaced by Byram. But they used two areas of strength to address 2 areas of weakness and the team is more complete and balanced as a result.

I’ve warmed to this one. It’s was hard initially to get over the “really, we’re going to be that predictable?” But I honestly can’t think of a better available match for this group of players at this time in their careers. New Jersey proved Lindy can still coach; the fast, hard game he prefers fits this collection of players; and he seem to be the right personality for this core at this time. Looking forward to seeing how the team responds, particularly Cozens, Krebs, Byram and Power.

Podkolzin was the 10th overall pick just 5 years ago. Holtz was the #7 four years ago and was traded for not much more. Neither had impressed but neither was a confirmed bust yet either. I guess “only a third” for Holloway is not as much of a good deal as I thought in today’s market, and a 2nd and more than $4M for Broberg (pick 8 in 2018) seems hefty considering an argument could be made that all 4 players are at a similar level. Puts a different light on the Savoie trade. The market for prospects is shifting.

I hadn't really thought of this too much but Girgensons/Skinner/Mittelstadt/Olofsson combined had never played a playoff game Lafferty's played 21, Zucker 52, Byram 27 and McLeod 56