dudacek

I chose narrative deliberately. It is false and misleading to suggest Casey sucked in college. I did not and do not suggest you are advancing that narrative, but it is out there. To your point, I did not “pick out one OK season,” I was explaining the genesis of the narrative. The season was not “OK” he led his team in P/PG at nearly a point per game as an 18-year-old freshman. It was a good season by any objective measure. The bold is absolutely true. There was nothing on Casey’s resume to suggest he would be ready for the NHL after just a combined 58 games in college and the USHL. Botterill is moron.

Bankable is an interesting choice of words. Casey’s freshman college stats were not special and did not reflect the amount of hype he got as a prospect in his D1 year. That said, they were good and compare with a number of freshmen college players who have gone on to have top six NHL careers, as well as current guys like Turcotte and Zegras. This is especially true considering the fact he was not on a very good team and was their primary offensive generator. So I would say Casey also had bankable amateur seasons. Its a bit of a pet peeve because there is a bit of a narrative out there that Casey sucked in college that grew out of the debate over who was a better prospect, he or Petterson. People correctly were pointing out the Petterson was putting up numbers in the Swedish Elite League that were unheard of for anyone at that level, while Casey was putting up numbers that were merely good for a college freshman. I know you know this, but everyone reading might not.

Take Ralph at his word and Cozens is on the outside of those guaranteed to start, but will get plenty of opportunity change that, and Dahlin will be getting more ice time. I suspect we’ll probably see the top 2 pairs getting relatively equal ES minutes, with Dahlin’s minutes climbing somewhat (maybe with some PK time) and Risto’s fall due to being off PP1. What was interesting down the stretch last year was how much ice time Montour was getting; more ES time than any of them. I’m curious to see how much effort gets put into having the Dahlin/Montour pair out with one of our top two lines.

Some interesting weigh-in stats: Rasmus Dahlin 6’3 207, up from 193 Will Borgen 6’3”, 205, up from 198 Matt Irwin 6’2” 189, down from 207 and he somehow grew an inch Matthias Samuelsson is the biggest Dman at 6’4” 225, 4 pound heavier than Risto Cody Eakin 6’0” 196, up from 183 Zemgus Girgensons 6’2” 213, which is only up 2 pounds, I was just surprised he’s that heavy Curtis Lazar 6’0” 193, down from 211 Casey Mittelstadt 6’1” 196, down from 199 Eric Staal 6’4” 195, down from 206 Tage Thompson 6’7” 219, up from 215, but down from the 228 reported a few months back And Jack Eichel 6’2”, 213 up from 203 Wonder how many of these changes are at team direction? Irwin and Staal are two older guys I could see them wanting to trim down to play with pace. Dahlin and Eakin a couple I could see them wanting more muscle.

Cozens is 19 years 11 months and has put up 11 points so far in 4 games. At 18 years 11 months he had 9 points in 7 games During Casey’s only WJC he was 19 years 1 month and had 11 points in 7 games.

From what I’ve seen, COVID is an obstacle to that scenario. Taxi squad guys can slide right in, but there is a quarantine period for guys getting called up from the AHL. If that’s the case, I think it will take an unlikely run of injuries, or a special performance before we see any Rochester guys in blue and gold this year, especially given the short, tight season.

I think we will see the current 3rd line until someone gets hurt, or one of the kids outplays somebody. The fourth line is going to be a rotating mishmash of kids and specialists.

Definitely. I also think Skinner Staal Reinhart could be a dominant 2nd line in the offensive zone: three guys with exceptional puck skills in traffic, two of them very smart. Sam’s presence addresses any potential entries and exits issues, but I am curious about how they will move the puck through the neutral zone; there is no Johansson on that line. Maybe we see Montour, Miller and Dahlin carrying in transition more. (Semi-related, this is one area where Eakin should be an upgrade on Larry) Maybe Sam can develop in that area. I’ve always thought deference to Jack has stunted the puckhandling portion of his game I saw in juniors. Excited to see how he does as a line driver, particularly with two very good players. Staal/Granlund was an excellent combo for the Wild and Sam’s game has similarities to Granlund’s.

Olofsson, Montour, Mittelstadt, R2 the happiest guys in camp right now? Borgen and Asplund the most upset? It will be interesting to see the traffic between groups -who and how often. I am not expecting the starting roster to be much different than this, but I would be surprised if Ralph didn’t pull a few strings to keep the carrots and the sticks very much visible. I am happy the approach and focus seems to be almost entirely on winning right now.

Montour gets the Dahlin slot, Miller shifts sides, Olofsson on line one, Sam driving line2 and Eakin as the new Larry answers our biggest questions off the hop. Cozens will be added, plug in Jack, make a decision on Sheahan and that’s our roster. They may get looks as camp goes on, maybe Asplund and a few others as well, but I think it was pretty clear they were starting camp on the outside.

Here’s a PRE-game presser with Cozens. Most interesting thing in there for me was that Sam Reinhart has kept in touch with Dylan since he was drafted. He took him under his wing at camp last year and has been in text communication about the whole Hockey Canada experience. Doesnt fit the impression some seem to have about Sam and good to hear. https://video.hockeycanada.ca/en/c/njt-availability-with-dylan-cozens-d7747670.106242

All the best in 2021 to my internet hot stove.

As they point out Casey is the best close-to-home example, but there are plenty. Cody Hodgson was a tourney MVP, Alex Nylander had 9 points as an under-ager and 12 in his draft year.

To Allen, I’m not trying to say he’s any kind of proof the predictive models are wrong. More that he’s proof that faith in the models created a blind spot for a very vocal corner of football watchers that never would have existed 20 years ago. It’s definitely your last part and the bias trend that I find interesting. Allen’s physical gifts are rare, so rare that 20 years ago that’s all the scouts would have seen, ignoring important signs in the process. A “market correction” was needed at the time because too much focus on physical attributes was causing mistakes to be made. Allen is evidence that correction has occurred, to the point that, in his case, there was too much focus on the modelling to the point that it was the potential of his physical gifts that got ignored. Allen should encourage people to be less dismissive of those that don’t fit their model. You’re right, Quinn is not as physically gifted, nor analytically dismissible as Allen. He’s highly unlikely to be in the MVP conversation and no one was saying “I wouldn’t have picked him in the 3rd round” Where he is similar is in his personal underdog story: he’s the opposite of a silver-spoon pedestaled athlete, he’s a driven kid who has a history of exceeding people’s expectations for him.

This is easily the best WJC ever for the Sabres. We’ve had excellent performances before (Mittelstadt, Reinhart) but never four, and all them producing.

Ryan Johnson with some authority. His first.

I officially hate Trevor Zegras. He celebrates goals with a Bryan Smolinski smirk. Unforgivable.

Cozens looking like Peter friggin Forsberg to seal the deal.

Lundell has been a total non-factor. Playing against Drysdale and Cozens a little tougher than what he’s seen so far in the tourney. Shines the Peterka Stutzle play in a bit of a different light.

Canada is so frickin deep. It’s the 06 Sabres, wave after wave. Every forward is top 6 good and they are relentless. The Finns are just hanging on.

That was a helluva Hail Mary pass by Quinn to spring Pelletier for the breakaway. Kid continues to impress me with his board work and the way he moves the puck. It’s weird, he was best known as a sniper and that’s the one thing we haven’t seen from him. Cozens is the most complete player I’ve seen so far in the tournament

I takes five or six years. It’s a mistake to say this means JJP is going to be a top 6 player, but there is nothing wrong with being happy that the immediate returns are more promising than Rasmus Asplund, or Eric Cornel.

I think that if Olofsson plays with Jack, his ES production will surprise some of you. I’m not sure why people think that the average of what he was during his first season is all that he will ever be; he was a rookie, who naturally had to adjust to the speed and power of the league, and then adjust again once teams realized what he can do. This is a player that has done nothing but identify his weaknesses and worked hard to improve them; he’s developed every single season since he was drafted and continued to develop over the course of last season. I don’t think he’s done.

Lebrun reporting the PL Dubois won’t be coming to camp in Columbus and he’s hearing that he might be looking for a change of scenery, before adding that might just be wishful thinking. He’d be the long-term solution at 2C. Cozens would almost certainly need to be on the table to get into that conversation. On a more realistic note, the Dubois contract may factor into our chances of acquiring Korpisalo.

Lundell has improved statistically each game; 1, then 2, then 3 points. He’s been getting to the net. Four-point night is going to be tough with Cozens keeping him pinned in his own zone all night. 😜