dudacek

Nugent-Hopkins deal is very notable. First long-term UFA contract post-pandemic, other than Pietrangelo, who is on another tier. $5 million AAV is significantly lower than one would expect. Very much a Reinhart comparable.

It was nine months ago we were suffocating for a week under the California wildfire smoke from thousands of miles away. The high pressure ridge is expected to start to collapse overnight and that could bring lightning as that progresses east over the next few days. My raspberries are roasted. Sunblasted fruit, crispy dry leaves and stalks. The thornless blackberries right beside them look healthy, and a month ahead of schedule

I think this is likely a very strong element at play. I also wonder about the July 1 element. It has long been rumoured that Adams is bringing more people into the hockey department. I’m wondering if they are planning to stack up multiple hirings in a single announcement, but need to wait until contracts expire before making things official. There is very much a business/marketing element to this whole next month - giving the fans and sponsors a reason to invest and to be invested. Of course this is premised on the coaching decision being already made. Unless they have extraordinary interest in one of assistants still in play, there is no reason for it not to be.

It occurred to me when reading over some draft rankings, what a leap of faith the top end of the draft will be. Virtually every prospect will be ranked on an extraordinarily small sample size, filtered through distant memories of impressions left from a season that wrapped 18 months before, with no testing and limited knowledge of physical growth and trends. Whose to say the guys ranked 8th or 9th wouldn’t have established themselves as top three candidates in a normal year? That Chaz Lucius would have put up Cole Caufield goal numbers and been this year’s Alexander Holtz, or that Artu Raty’s struggles continued and plunged him all the way into the 2nd round? I’m not going to be shocked if somebody says (for example) Kent Johnson is the most talented player in the draft and plucks him top 3 or that nobody believes his talent overcomes his style and he falls like Josh Ho-Sang. Its that kind of year.

We just hit 40.4, which is .2 off the highest temperature ever recorded here. Usually peaks about now, so we’ve got a shot at the 6 p.m. measurement. I’m scared to look at my raspberries.

One more thing that might put things in to perspective. The previous record highs for this week in most Vancouver Island communities are all about 90 F. Yesterday a town about an hour from me hit 105 F, which may have been the highest temperature ever recorded on Vancouver Island. The typical temperature for this time of year is about 70 F. What we are seeing right now unheard of, and a little scary. Does that help (you Neanderthals 😜)?

One more thing that might put things in to perspective. The previous records for this week on Vancouver Island are in the low 30s. This is 6 or 7 degrees hotter. The average temperature for this time of year is 22! It’s unheard of, and a little scary.

Don’t let the shortened season fool you: Accounting for that Sam’s past three years are 65, 59 and 60, if I remember the math right. ROR’s at the same age were very similar. It took him 10 years to break 64 points. Like Sam, ROR was also frequently used on the wing prior to being traded from the Avs.

All-time Canadian high reported in Lytton BC. Of 46.7 C (that’s 116 F). Broke a record from 1937. About 8 or 10 degrees cooler here, but definitely the hottest 4-5 day run we’ve had here in my lifetime. Supposed to start letting up here tomorrow, but it’s heading @Thorny’s way.

Overall

Sam will probably be moved for roughly the value of 10 OA and 50 OA. Jack for 3 OA, 15 OA and 50 OA. Id say about double for Jack is ballpark.

So what you’re saying is if we offer him a UFA-type contract, we will almost certainly stay.

The report didnt indicate to you that the opposite of the bold is the case?

Minus Jack and Risto, and assuming no major contracts returning, Adams would have nearly $50 million in cap space. It will be very interesting to see how that is used.

And the youngest is Dylan Cozens.

What is unusual is for a co-worker to be disliked to the point that several people make a point of complaining about him to the boss.

Right, but watched him in the lead-ups. He was dominant.

I see him as almost identical to Dach, big, skilled but lacking the alpha dog quality. I know there is a huge age gap that explains it, but Dach was so much better than Byfield at the WJCs. I know that’s not the be-all, but the fact Byfield was just a face in the crowd there two years in a row nags at me.

If that’s what you got from my post, that certainly isn’t what I think. I see him as a top-tier prospect, whose game isn’t exactly what I prefer - very similar to Byfield. The centrepiece-level prospects in rough order for me: Lafreniere Zegras 3OA Dach Byfield Drysdale Turcotte Boldy Rossi Krebs Kakko 5OA Rossi might be ahead of Dach and Byfield if he hadn’t had the season he did. 5th is there (and vaults ahead of the players) only if Beniers or Eklund is available.

That is a very interesting choice. The "value" in terms of tiers is very close, IMO. Dach was a #3 pick who has generally lived up to that billing but hasn't proven himself to be more than say Dylan Strome. I think both elements still have a "mystery box" element, but the "nearly here" and 1st-line centre projection elements favour Dach. I don't think people tend to appreciate how Comtois is the best player of this bunch right now. He has proven the most in the NHL and is still young and experienced enough to have upside. I don't think people consider him in terms of being worth pick #12 but he is already at the level of what an average pick 12 becomes. Personally, I'd pick Reichel, but in terms of value, he and Perrault are almost impossible to separate. So if the Ducks are offer a 4th piece, that is very relevant In terms of what I like (which seems to be in line with what Adams talks), I like the Ducks offer. I covet a player like Comtois, I covet a player like Eklund, I covet a player like Beniers. I am a little worried that Kirby Dach is too passive a player and personality to be a 1C. I think he could be a Tyler Myers type who always leaves you looking for more. That said, the talent and the chemistry with Cozens is very tempting.

I think Granato is already done. Not sure why they have yet to announce. Perhaps there is something else (Eichel trade, other hires?) that they are waiting to click into place in terms of their messaging?

Zegras was 9, Dach 3 and Byfield 2. 3OA is in that tier.

As @thorny said, I'm not saying 3OA alone, 3OA as the centrepiece. I really don't think Dreger has a strong insiders grasp of the Eichel situation, other than he's been told Eichel will be traded, the price is high, and a number of teams are interested. Most of the rest of what he says seems to be of the "sound like you know something without really saying anything" variety. Separately,I think Sabrespace is underrating the value of 3OA, possibly because of the negative hype of this draft. A pick that high has never been moved for a player in the salary cap era. Pick 7 (Derek Stepan/Antti Raanta) Pick 8 (Jordan Staal, Jeff Carter) and pick 9 (Corey Schneider) are the only locked-in top 10 picks ever moved that wasn't in a "move up/down" type of trade.

Kevin Adams, cleaning out the culture and refreshing a core that needed it?

I think I understand your central point very well: That Adams will keep Eichel if he does not get the requisite return. It's not that I disagree, it's that my point is that Adams' baseline level of return is below what many are willing to accept. My perception is that you think a deal has yet to be made because the baseline has yet to be met. I think that if 3OA is on the table, the baseline is already met and Adams is trying to lever that into the best return possible. Those saying "It has to Zegras++ or it has to be Dach+++ or we walk away" are going to be disappointed. I hope you are right.