dudacek

Yep, check out the second link I posted. The guy explains why.

More interesting stuff from the same poster: https://forums.hfboards.com/threads/caps-roster-general-discussion-coaching-fas-cap-lines-etc-2023-24-regular-season-edition.2942812/page-205#post-195651545 Basically, it's a dive into how Malenstyn got his ***** analytics.

From a Caps fan on HFboards: I wanna take a little deeper dive here to point out just how brutal the minutes for Washington's "4th" line are and how nuts it is that they're performing so well anyway. The individual members of that line have started their shifts in the offensive zone 7.98% of the time (NAK), 8.02% of the time (Malenstyn), and 9.29% of the time (Dowd) over ~400 minutes of 5 on 5 play each. As you mentioned, as a unit they've outscored opponents 13-6 at 5 on 5. OZ Start% as a statistic dates back to the 07-08 season, and in that time only one player has posted a sub 10% season while playing at least 300 minutes at 5 on 5: Paul Gaustad in 15/16. He had 5.76% OZ Starts and was outscored 6-21. Coincidentally, Gaustad had been traded with a 4th for a 1st as a pure rental at the 2012 trade deadline, the only 4th line center I can think of who was traded for a 1st rounder. That year he ranked 8th out of 626 skaters with 31.98% OZ Starts. One of the things you notice as you go through OZ Start% year by year is that giving players extreme deployments in one direction or another is a pretty recent phenomenon. In 07/08, the skater with the lowest OZ Start% was Bobby Holik at 29.62%. This season, that number would good for 30th. Long story short, the Caps 4th line is at the forefront of the current trend of highly specialized deployments, and as a result they're playing quite possibly the most brutal minutes of any line in the history of hockey, on a team that's overall been outscored 71-90 at 5 on 5 (58-84 if you factor their line out)... and they're outscoring their opponents by a 2-1 margin in the process. It's insane, it shouldn't be possible, and yet it's happening. Nic Dowd should've been the Caps' All Star, and he should legitimately be in the Selke conversation.

So hard look, and maybe not listened to? Even more intriguing now.

Big brain trade looking for the next Dakota Joshua with a player nobody knows. Sounds like everything the Sabres need or want on the fourth line. Some of the hardest deployment in hockey last year and he is the type of player you guys have been screaming for. 241 hits? Lindy will know this guy and probably gave his stamp of approval. And I'm sure the analytics team had a hard look. High price to pay for this type. Ballsy, risk/reward move that could end up looking really smart or really stupid.

I’d say he’s of the same tier. They did. In a few years, we will find out if they were right. (To be clear, I don’t know enough about Eiserman to have an opinion on the player, only the scenario.) They aren’t, but if you project the NHL roster over the next handful of years, the Sabres had 3 D under 25 signed to long-term deals, with recent 1st rounders Johnson and Byram there as well: 3/5 of 7 NHL spots Do the same exercise up front and you have Thompson and Cozens long term with Quinn, Krebs, Peterka, Benson and 4 recent 1st rounders: 2/10 of 14. The facts are that it doesn’t matter what position the Sabres chose because they have more prospects than spots, period.

Was it posted earlier that two of Bob McKenzie's NHL scouts had him ranked as 3rd overall, and 5 had him in their top 7? Pretty surprising to me in this draft.

Helenius? He's been described as a pure centre in pretty much everything I've seen. Smart, responsible, solidly built, good skater, defensively diligent, good distributor: ticks all the requisite centre boxes.

This will be the thing that bothers me most about this draft. Very high potential I will be cursing for years the fact we could have had him.

Assuming the likelihood there was not a suitable trade available, what player would you have preferred him to take?

I'm a fan. He was my top choice @ 14 after we made the trade to the bottom of the tier. Works hard, plays a complete game, good character, good skill: he's a good pick where we got him, on a tier with Kulich, Savoie and Östlund, IMO, as a likely NHL second- or third-liner, with a skill set that will be more adaptable to the bottom 6 than any of those guys will. Upside is Saku Koivu. No issues whatsoever with the selection. Plenty of issues with the work done so far on improving next year's roster.

A most Sabres-y pick on a most Sabres-y day.

We’re standing on the sidewalk wondering what the hell is going on in there and then Amazon pulls up.

Do you think Adams spent much time on this at all this week? I would imagine he made this offer to Clague a while ago. Clague decided to take it now. Agents and office staff took care of the paperwork.

Marty and Duffer said yesterday his NMC means he will not be put on waivers

Thank god.

This. Even if it didn’t, it was the Avs pick and the chances of them being a bottom-11 team next year are pretty slim

That management wouldn’t have a plan based on contingencies, or that Adams wouldn’t?

I think it’s pretty clear the plan is to wait and work until the last minute to see if they can work out a trade scenario palatable to all parties. I think it’s also slightly possible they may decide to keep Skinner in certain scenarios where other plans fall through. And there is also the slim possibility they are bluffing in an attempt to get Jeff to waive.

With two 2nds better than that one, they better have similar targets targets lined up to use them on. That’s the kind of deal I’ve been expecting them to make.

It's all about the name.

Oh, for sure, still tons of ammo there. I’m just saying I think this makes it unlikely #11 was a key cog in any deal. 20 years ago we were giving up 2 2nds for Jochen Hecht. I’d be very happy with a deal like that. Add a Savoie to 2 2nds and that’s more than enough for a good top 6 player.

Most of what I’ve seen has him going in the middle of the round, so maybe a little high, but not out of line.

They wouldn’t have made this deal if they were close to doing what we wanted: leveraging #11 into a good player. To my mind it dims the hope for the type of trade we all want.

Good call, or it gives them a shot at one of the 6 D, which their pipeline clearly needs. For the Sabres, makes sense if: a) the guy they liked at 11 was going to be a “reach” (like Nygard) b) if they needed a 2nd for another deal c) if the sweet spot for a player they want (like Necas) is lower than 11 d) if they have a tier where their 11-14 guys are very close. From what I’ve seen, at worst, one of Helenius, Yakemchuk, Catton, and Eiserman will be there at 14.