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Everything posted by dudacek
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When you think about from the Hawks perspective, moving pending UFAs Kane and or Toews right now does make some sense. The team is a disaster on and off the ice and is clearly planning to tank next year. I'm not sure those two are going to embrace the ends of their careers as being the guys who keep the ship steady as the team goes through that. And on the ice their presence still has the power to get in the way of that. Why not clear the decks now, as opposed to waiting until the deadline?
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It's contract related. He's an RFA and a lot of analysts say the Sabres are reluctant to make a top 6 commitment to him with Skinner already on the books and Quinn, Peterka, Rosen and others coming behind him. I'm not entirely in that camp, but I do see how he has value as a trade chip and how his contract demands and the pipeline could influence the Sabres thinking.
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This 100 %. The issue comes less from the individual team and more misplaced faith that consensus means something. Brad Lambert at 10ish on some lists and 30ish on other doesn't make him a consensus 20ish pick, it means he could go anywhere from the early teens to into the 2nd depending on who else was available when the teams that like him pick. Same with guys who are perceived to be on the other end of that scale like, say, a Chesley or an McGroarty. I think there is a good chance Yurov is probably going to be the best player available at 9 and teams will regret passing on him if he goes in the late teens or 20s.
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Best recent comparable would be Claude Giroux, who was also a pending UFA with a big ticket, and a full no-move clause. He got a (presumably late) 1st and a 23-year-old former 10th overall pick yet to fully make the NHL #16 is better than either of those assets. #28 and Ryan Johnson seems very much in the ballpark. I stand by my Olofsson and Portillo offer as reasonable under the circumstances. The key would be Kane wanting to be here and having a full-no trade. He can pretty much dictate his destination, giving Adams tremendous control over the price. The only lever the Hawks have is timing and Adams can afford to wait. After fiascos like Hasek and Hall, it would be nice to be on the other side of one of those situations. This situation and whether it proceeds is entirely in Patrick Kane's hands.
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It wasn’t that long ago that Donnie Granato was an assistant coach with the Blackhawks. Any concerns about fit should be easily addressed there. Conversely questions Kane would have about our direction would also have to be influenced by that.
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Historically, there are a lot of good defenceman picked in the 28-41 range where we’ll be picking twice and some interesting prospects ranked there. But I’m not going to feel too much pressure to take one if the board falls a different way. As far as I’m concerned, we’ve invested 5 recent top 32 picks in the last few years into the blueline and looks like we’ve picked wisely. We’d still have 7 more picks this year to take some development projects, and four top 60 picks next year to replenish. No need to force anything.
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I don't know if it is about him being a "bad" guy so much as it is about him being high-maintenance. But the issue for me is as much about hockey as it is character: he might have top 10 speed and good size and hands, but he's not a top-10 talent because his head for the game doesn't measure up. There are far better skill/smarts/character combos available.
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Kane's actual market value is irrelevant in terms of a trade to Buffalo. He is indisputably a luxury right now for a team at the stage Buffalo is at in its build, and you don't flip building blocks for luxuries. The best pieces I'd be willing to part with are VO and Portillo. VO and Kane fill similar roles; they get age and cap space, we get talent. Portillo fills a huge need in their system. We don't need Kane right now. If we want him and he wants us, there's always next summer.
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Well, now I know what a worst-case scenario draft might look like. Thank you, Corey.
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The sleepers: Finally, here are 3 more who have caught my eye. I’ll be hoping for more from our first 2 picks - these guys are probably going to be picked between 16 and 28 - but I like them and I certainly won’t be upset to see them in blue and gold, ideally at 28. I’ve talked about Noah Ostlund earlier as a dark horse favourite. He’s slight and not someone who’s going to win a lot of battles, but he’s got good skill and great hockey sense; the game just seems to go through him. Kid is a centre who gets it, and seems to be an Adams type. We’ve all talked about how the pipeline would benefit from an Eric Cernak pounding the living hell out of opposition forwards. That guy in this draft is Lian Bichsel. He doesn’t have a ton of puck skill, but he’s a horse without it. A mean one, that bites. Maybe it’s because of his dad. Maybe it’s because of the name. Maybe it’s because of who he plays with on the USNDP team. But Jimmy Snuggerud is one of the least-hyped prospects out there. And he shouldn’t be. Kid isn’t going to be a star, but he is going to be a pro. He’s another one who ticks all the boxes, and that’s rare in the 2nd half of the 1st round
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The feel-rights: There are a number of players in that large 2nd tier that maybe aren’t talented enough to invest a top 10 pick in, but still have a great deal of appeal for me. I’ve identified 3 of them that I’ve kinda locked into as “my guys” at 16. It wasn’t that long ago when the draft thread focused on our need for a defensively strong right-handed defenceman. The player who best fits this profile for me is Ryan Chesley. I don’t think he’s going to be Charlie McAvoy, but he plays a similar game and fills a gaping hole in our pipeline. I wonder if the Sabres see Liam Ohgren as an early developer and dock him accordingly. I hope not. Because the Ohgren I see is the type of all-around 2nd-line winger who wins pucks and hockey games. I see a guy who can be for the Sabres what a Palat or Killorn has been for the Lightning. His production against his peers has been outstanding. If Ohgren is Gauthier-light, then maybe Rutger McGroarty is Gauthier minus the overdrive? Smart, skilled and a character guy, he’s another pro-style winger who should settle in in the middle-six. The only thing setting him back is a lack of speed. Ohgren is my clear target at 16. If he gets picked earlier, either of the others might be a bit of a reach for some, but I think the fit is too good to ignore.
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The question marks: There are 4 players in this draft you’ll see people refer to as “He’s a top 10 talent but…” I don’t see it in Brad Lambert. I see a great skater with good skill who doesn’t understand hockey. It’s a bad match when combined with a personality that seems the opposite of a culture fit here. With Conor Geekie, I get it. He’s big with great hands and he sees the ice really well. His skating is just OK, and I don’t see a guy who takes his craft seriously enough. Danila Yurov is a guy Sabrespace doesn’t talk about enough. He ticks all the size, skill, skating, and smarts boxes and seems to have a good attitude and play a complete game. The Russian factor is really the only minus for me. I don’t think Ivan Miroshnichenko is as skilled as Yurov, but he’s a skilled power forward who plays hard. I sometimes look at Gauthier and wonder where the separation is between the two. There’s a sense of uncertainty with both Russians, both from the political perspective, but also from the fact that it’s harder to get a feel for their character. Plus there is the cancer thing. I trust the Sabres to do their homework on either, so that if they picked Yurov at 9 and/or Miroshnichenko at 16 I’d be very happy because the on-ice package is worth it. I can see why some team would want Geekie at 16. Hope it’s not us. Lambert does not interest me at all.
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The centres: Personally, I think the Sabres will - and probably should - hone in on one of three guys with the 9th pick: Frank Nazar, Marco Kasper or Matthew Savoie. All 3 are competitive pace-pushers who are great fits within the team identity Adams is building. All 3 are centres who can play wing. Savoie’s skill is getting overlooked a bit here I think. Late-season injuries and size concerns have calmed his hype train, but he’s certainly in the ballpark with the most-skilled players in this draft and you can’t ignore that at 9. He’s fast, he competes hard and he produces. The question is whether you can find someone at 9 who can do more for you 5-on-5. Kasper has rocketed up the charts. He’s yet to fill out but has already shown he can compete with men. I think more than anyone else under consideration he ticks all of Adams’ tendency boxes. He’s going to be bigger than the other two and probably better in his own zone. I have no doubt he will be a useful NHLer. The question with him is whether he has the offensive upside worth investing a top 10 pick in. Nazar stylistically falls in between the other two for me: he’s skilled but not as skilled as Savoie; and he’s got matchup potential, but is not as big or smart as Kasper. He pushes pace as well as anyone in the draft but I wonder a bit about his self-awareness. His speed and his courage is top-notch. He’s not a sure fire 1st-liner (none of these three are), but I think he can play anywhere in the top 9 and in all-situations. I think I’d love any of these guys at 12. At 9, I’m probably still hoping they take one of them, but I feel like I will probably be second-guessing which one for quite some time
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The defencemen: Most of us are ignoring defencemen with our top 2 picks because of Power and Dahlin. Maybe we shouldn’t be. Both our picks are in the range where you typically see D taken and there are at least 3 - Denton Mateychuk, Kevin Korchinski, and Pavel Mintyukov - who could go in that range. All 3 are LD and offensively inclined, which does not make sense for us. Putting that aside, I think Mateychuk is well-rounded if smallish, and the other 2 are very talented. I particularly like Mintyukov. I’m not going to be happy if the Sabres pick one at 16 or even 9, but I’m certainly open to the possibility he might be the best player available
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The talented wingers: Two players you will most frequently see rounding out the top 10 are Johnathan Lekkerimaki and Joakim Kemmel. Each are frequently mocked to Buffalo. And it fits, because late in the top 10 is the right spot for guys who project as a Willie Nylander or a Nikolaj Ehlers. These guys are skilled. I see red flags, however, on each. Kemmel plays hard, but may lack that “room to grow” gene the Sabres covet. Lekkerimaki definitely has that gene, but strikes me as more passive and perimeter than the type that typically stokes Adams’ fire. Couple that with the number of scoring wingers already in the organization, and I’d like to see the Sabres look elsewhere at 9. But there is too much talent to ignore at 16 if one of them somehow slips. I don’t expect them to.
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This is how I see the Sabres choices: The dream: Most projections have coalesced into a 5-player group that will go top 10. You’ll find Cutter Gauthier further down on some lists, but you won’t come draft day. He ticks too many boxes. Maybe he’s not an elite talent, but he’s a complete talent. He fills a big Sabre need for a power forward and would perfectly complement the likes of Krebs and Cozens. I don’t hesitate if by some miracle he’s still there at 9.
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The Sabres under Adams definitely have a type: self-aware, self-motivated good teammates who push the pace. And they have some tendencies: speed, smarts and lots of room to grow. I tend to value smarts and compete and devalue players who lack both, but also put a lot of emphasis on building a complete team. I’d like to see the Sabres stick with the “up-tempo” model while adding some heft to their pipeline. I don’t like drafting for position, but all things being equal we already have a lot of puck-moving D and scoring wingers in the system.
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Most drafts I tend to look hard at the prospects through 3 filters: who is projected to go around where the Sabres are picking? what are the Sabres tendencies given what they’ve shown us and told us about their goals? what package of player characteristics do I like and think the Sabres need? Using this, I usually find it relatively easy to determine the ones I want them to take. Not this year, though, the needs are too precise and the projections all over board. There is an enormous 2nd tier and the Sabres are picking right at the beginning of it, then right in the heart of it, then soon enough after it closes to hope somebody falls.
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I’m becoming a big fan of Ohgren at 16 and not really wanting Lekkerimaki at 9. But a player to watch is their centre, Noah Ostlund. Kid’s not big, but he’s got game. Im reminded of a few years back when the sniper Laine and the bull Puljujarvi got all the hype while no one paid too much attention to the skinny kid in the middle for Team Finland. Sebastian Aho turned out the best of the 3. Ostlund probably won’t be there at 28, but I’d grab him there if he was.
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I’m seeing Weber’s contract to the Knights for Dadanov?
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Updated Sabres Prospect Pool 2021 and beyond
dudacek replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
That is unexpected and a bit of coup for the Sabres staff, I’d say. -
@LGR4GM Echoing thoughts above about your dad and your list. I've been thinking a lot about how the Sabres draft: fearless, relentless, committed to self-improvement, self-aware, on-ice intelligence, good teammate, trending upward... When I'm looking at how those qualities apply to the players that might be available where we pick, I find myself looking more and more at Kasper.
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It makes so much sense it has to be the plan right? We can't have another Botterill in charge, right?
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The line combos will be interesting. Assuming good health, I’m really interested in how adding inexperienced skill in Quinn and Peterka over filler like Eakin/Hayden/Bjork changes his deployment approach.
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I am reminded of that old quote about “you don’t really know what an NHL player will be until he’s got at least 200 games under his belt. Our 4th most veteran forward has just over 300. Something to think about when passing judgement on guys like Mitts, Asplund, Olofsson, and even Cozens, who feel like they’ve been around forever.