dudacek

Just to be clear, the list takes a players’ performance under a specific analytics model, projected based on recent trends over the lifetime of the contract. It’s not about how many points a player got last year versus how much he got paid. It’s about the term and the trend. It’s about how poorly a player is trending under Dom Luscycyn’s model versus how much he is going to get paid.

O’Reilly

Wing Skinner G33 P63 -14 * Bratt G26 P73 0 Okposo G21 P46 -15 * Palat G18 P49 +15 Tuch G12 P38 -3 * Sharangovich G24 P46 -14 Olofsson G20 P49 -16 * Tatar G15 P30 -22 Hinostroza G13 P25 -11 * Johnsson G13 P35 +4 Asplund G8 P27 -5 * Haula G18 P44 +19 Krebs G7 P22 -20 * Boqvist G10 P23 -9 Quinn G1 P2 -7 * Holtz G0 P2 -5 Peterka G0 P0 0 * Wood G0 P0 -2 Bjork G5 P8 -14 * Bastian G11 P16 -11

Centre Thompson G38 P68 -17 * Hughes G26 P56 -16 Mittelstadt G6 P19 -14 * Hischier G21 P60 -1 Cozens G13 P38 -19 * Mercer G17 P42 -25 Girgensons G10 P18, -7 * McLeod G6 P20 -16

Defence Dahlin 53P, -22 * Hamilton 30P, -19 Power 3P, +3 * Severson 46P, -14 Samuelsson 10P, -10 * Marino 25P, +1 Jokiharju 19P, -8 * Graves 28P, -9 Lyubushkin 15P, -2 * Seigenthaler 14P, -5 Bryson 10P, -9 * Smith 8P, +6

Goal: Comrie 10/5/1 2.58 .920 * Vanacek 20/12/6 2.67 .908 Anderson 17/12/2 3.12 .897 * Blackwood 9/10/4 3.39 .892 Lukkonnen 2/5/2 2.74 .917 * Daws 10/11/1 3.11 .893

Sabres don’t deserve *****, but @Taro T is right, nothing New Jersey has, or has done stands out as superior to the Sabres.

I get that he’s neither tough, nor a goal scorer, but I don’t think it’s right that Asplund tends to get lumped in with last year’s replaceable parts. Whatever line he’s on tends to get better. He gets love from the analytics guys, but I don’t think enough attention is paid to Asplund’s work ethic and his drive for self-improvement. He’s going to get better. And the kid put up 27 points in what was essentially his rookie season.

I think Shayne Wright went 4th because the 3 teams picking ahead of him all saw players available that they ranked higher. I think 3 factors weighed against Wright: 1. Growth. he was an early physical developer who dominated in part because of that when he was younger but whose dominance fell off as he aged and other kids caught up. He was not significantly better at 17 than he was at 15 and in the scouting world that matters. 2. Skill. The hype machine had most of us expecting franchise 1C skill but I didn’t see it. He didn’t have Lafontaine’s burst, Hawerchuk’s craftiness, Forsberg’s indomitable presence. He’s very good, smart and strong. But when I look at his physical gifts I see more O’Reilly than Eichel. 3. Character. You read a quote from Wright, he says the right things. But the more you watch him interact with people, the more you get the sense he is reading from a script. Im not saying he’s Evander Kane-style trouble, but I get the sense he is more calculated Hockey Canada media creation covering stereotypical entitled hockey star douchiness than the mainstream narrative let on, and it made organizations hesitant to invest.

From Scott Wheeler’s latest ranking of the top prospects outside the NHL (Owen Power topped the list): 9. Matt Savoie, C/RW, 18 (Buffalo Sabres — No. 9, 2022) Savoie’s game has the potential to thrill as much as any player’s on this list. Inside the offensive zone, he’s strong. He’s got extremely quick side-to-side hands that help him beat defenders one-on-one off of cuts. He’s got an NHL shot (which he can place with pinpoint accuracy from a bad angle and rip by a goalie clean from a distance, but he also loves to change up and slide five-hole). He does an excellent job creating plays to the slot out of traffic. He’s a burning skater with explosiveness and quick three-step acceleration that allows him to win races, separate in transition, and put defenders onto their heels, or dash through holes in coverage to the net (or draw a penalty). He’s a soft small-area passer who blends deception into his movements. And then on top of those things, he’s got a bit of a chip on his shoulder. He’s always engaged, he keeps his feet moving, he plays with a ton of energy, and he finishes all of his checks and knocks his fair share of players over despite being on the smaller side. He’s also sturdier on his feet than his listed height might suggest, which helps him play between checks. I see a dynamic, high-tempo, top-six, goal-creating package. He’s an exciting talent, with clear PP1 upside due to his shooting/skill package and clear five-on-five upside because of his skating and motor. Even in games where the points don’t fall, he’s almost always dangerous and threatening on the ice — and he’s seldom going to leave you wanting more. Because of the way he plays, I fully expect him to stick at his natural centre position in the NHL, too. His speed might even make him a useful penalty killer to give him all-situations value as well

The flaw in this argument is that it's built on the mistaken premise that we've been buying for all 11 of of those years, or that the reasons to buy haven't changed.

This is one of those deals we've been hoping the Sabres would able to make happen: https://www.nhl.com/bluejackets/news/cbj-acquire-draft-picks-from-seattle-in-exchange-for-oliver-bjorkstrand/c-335069258 27 years old, 28 goals, reasonable contract...

Not disputing your point, but I think the only way Matt Savoie plays a shift in the minors is if the Sabres take a huge leap next year. I expect he should be NHL ready next year and will be in two. He's a Cozens-level prospect. Seth Appert Mike Peca and Mike Weber have done a better job with our prospects than any coaching group in 15 years. So, no.

Nice piece by Lance on our new goalie https://buffalonews.com/sports/sabres/how-eric-comrie-broke-through-ceiling-earned-opportunity-with-sabres/article_43008f8a-086f-11ed-8d48-a7ea4b5d191a.html Not sure how good they're going to be, but we sure seem to pick up players who are easy to root for.

Jeff Skinner — a winger who is not 6'7" 230 — got $9 million for 8 years coming off seasons of 40 and 24 goals, and he has never hit 68 points. Next summer Tage will have arb rights and be one year away from UFA status. What happens if he scores, say 27?

People aren't paying attention if they are pitching $6 million extensions for Tage. The AAV starts with at least a $7 this summer and goes over $8 next year with even 30 goals.

I'm seeing a local-to-my-area kid just got added to the Amerks-Cyclines pipeline https://www.abbynews.com/sports/abbotsfords-kohen-olischefski-signs-with-rochester-americans/

Because very few of the players who play there will ever see the ice in Buffalo, let alone become important pieces there.

Come on man, you're so busy parsing things into bite-sized chunks, you are completely talking past my original point: which was simply the bolded. A lot of the players who do become stud scorers were not projected to be that when they were 18 or 20. I listed nearly 20 of them. It's OK to say you agree with me. 😁

i think Peterka and Quinn were unicorns and there is no way the likes of Kisakov and Rosen will make up for their loss, and, as you say, there's been no one signed to replace Jankowski and R2. The upgrades to the blueline should make up for it somewhat, but there is a big hole down the middle.

Sorry Amerks fans, not that they are mutually exclusive, but winning championships is trumped by developing Sabres prospects every time. As far as I'm concerned, last year is likely to represent one of the most successful seasons in Rochester Americans history.

So what you're saying is 44 per cent (nearly as many) of last year's top 25 scorers weren't initially projected to be 40-goal, 90-point scorers, and come from the same ranks as Jack Quinn, Dylan Cozens, Casey Mittelstadt, Matthew Savoie, Isak Rosen and Noah Östlund, or even from the Kulich-Peterka-Thompson range?

Who actually "projects" as a 40-goal or 90-point player? Jack Eichel did. He's six seasons in and has broke 30 goals once and 80 points once. Were any of these guys projected to reach those heights when they were 20? Brad Marchand, Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, Alex Debrincat, Kiril Kaprizov, Artemi Panarin, Sebastian Aho, David Pastrnak, Chris Kreider, Jake Guentzel, Mark Stone, Jason Robertson, Max Pacioretty, Johnny Gaudreau, Claude Giroux, Nazem Kadri, Kevin Fiala... Brayden Point had 40 points in his 21-year-old season. Dylan Cozens had 38 in his. Yes, it's more likely that Peterka is a career 3rd-liner than the next Kucherov. But it seems to me that studs can come "out of nowhere" nearly as often as they do from the "top 10 prospects" lists.

Not that he's anywhere near the same class, but I think ERod is probably going to end up on a team that loses out on Kadri. He;s just waiting for that domino to fall.

71 points in just 54 games in his last year of junior. And he’s been pretty productive as an AHLer: 66 points in 124 games. He actually was an NHLer last year - only 5 AHL games - but spent a lot of time in the press box. Upon closer inspection, I’m going to say he’s probably on par with Pilut and Fitzgerald in the battle for D7 and will probably see time in Buffalo this year.