dudacek

Looking at anchoring from another angle: Player A is 23. He has put up career highs of 32 goals and 68 points. He’s got 89 points in 106 games over the past 2 years. Player B is 24. He has put up career highs of 38 goals and 68 points. He’s got 82 points in 116 games over the past 2 years. Player A is touted by many as franchise centre, with the possibility of a 100-point season in his future. Player B is being talked about by many as a major risk to hit 60 points again. The difference between the 2 is basically 2019 when Elias Pettersson’s Calder Trophy season fixed him in the minds of most as a superstar in the making, and Tage’s Thompson awkward toe drags while ROR was winning the Conn Smythe fixed him in the minds of most as a terrible bust. Anchoring is a real thing.

@LGR4GM posted a while ago about “anchoring” and how once people’s initial impression is cemented it is very hard to move them off of it. Most of the criticisms I’ve seen of the Tage contract have very little to do about his game on the ice. They mostly amount to “I thought he was ***** before last year, so last year must have been a fluke. Look at his shooting %. He won’t repeat.” Development is rarely a straight line, but there is nothing unusual about a forward breaking out into what he is somewhere between 22-24, or after 200-300 NHL games and spending the next 6-8 years revolving around that level. Because of injury and Ralph, Tage never had that 40-point ”maybe he’s better than I thought” transition year statistically to show people, but clearly he spent 2019-21 getting stronger and getting better.

That's exactly how I described him, although Taro pointed out how Varada was actually a big producer as a prospect.

The Sabres signed a number of cheap bottom-of-the-lineup veterans last summer that Sabrespace collectively dubbed the JAGs: low-maintenance, good-guy space-fillers designed to buy time and not do much else. Most of them did exactly what they were signed to do. Vinnie was the exception, finishing 6th among forwards in goals, points/60 minutes and ES ice time, while basically breaking even as a puck possession player. https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=130908 His efforts — alone among the Sabres UFA players — earned him a contract extension. That 1-year extension included a raise from $1 to $1.7 million. The money quotes? Granato: “We missed that guy that kind of drags others into the fight because he just plays at such a high pace. If you’re his two linemates and you’re not ready to play at a high pace, you’re either gonna hear from him or you’re not going to be able to keep up.” Hinostroza: “You don’t get to see the inside of the locker room and really how close-knit this team is and how close it is to being something really special. I think being a part of it is something really cool. This is a place I want to be. I don’t want to keep moving around. I want to be somewhere that I love and I love it here.” What do you expect from Vinnie Hinostroza? (Last year’s takes here):

Truly the one who will lead the (Sabre) dance. https://www.name-doctor.com/name-prokhor-meaning-of-prokhor-1936.html

And I’d say the pros lean towards offence and the cons toward defence, so you know which way most coaches will lean.

Well, if history means anything, the chances of Thompson slipping back into being a career 20-goal scorer are pretty slim. 17 other Sabres have scored 35 or more goals in a single season. 15 of them hit 30 at least 4 times in their career. Mogilny: 8 30-goal seasons, 473 career goals Gare:: 8 25-goal seasons, 354 career goals Lafontaine: 9 30 goal seasons, 468 career goals Martin: 8 30 goal seasons, 384 career goals Perreault: 13 25-goal seasons, 512 career goals Vanek: 8 25 goal seasons, 383 career goals Andreychuk: 13 25 goal seasons, 640 career goals Foligno: 9 25 goal seasons, 468 career goals Turgeon: 9 30 goal seasons, 515 career goals Robert: 6 25 goal seasons, 284 career goals Satan: 9 25 goal seasons, 363 career goals Skinner: 7 24 goal seasons, 298 career goals Sheppard: 9 24 goal seasons, 357 career goals Drury: 5 23 goal seasons, 255 career goals McKegney: 9 23-goal seasons, 320 career goals Eichel: 5 24 goal seasons, 153 career goals Hawerchuk: 10 30 goal seasons, 518 career goals The 2 that didn't/haven't were Eichel and Drury. Eichel is the only one without at least 250 career goals. It seems that when a Sabre scores as well as Thompson did this year, he's likely to keep scoring.

I’m intrigued in seeing where his game is at camp. Last year, they were hoping he’d take the job and ended up with the worst camp of the four. This year, it feels like they’ve already got him ticketed to Rochester. I wonder if he can change some minds.

The play of each this year determines whether they get term or a bridge.

Quoted because it didn’t get enough attention during the year and isn’t getting enough now. This kid got crushed by the internet for getting traded for O’Reilly, he wrecked his shoulder knocking him out for an entire season, he nursed his now-wife through cancer, and he got shunted to the taxi squad after 4 periods by Ralph Krueger. He kept his mouth shut, built his toothpick frame into a 220 pound powerhouse, earned his way on to the first line with his play, and has fully embraced Buffalo and the Sabres. He’s conducted himself exactly like we want a player to conduct himself and he’s worked for everything he’s got.

I'm not saying Tage is a 40/40 man — on the contrary, I see him more as a 30/30 — but I would not be surprised if he has that big 80-point season in him sometime over the next 8 years. He put up 24/16/40 in the 2nd half of last season, he works hard at his craft and his tool kit is a unicorn.

Thanks for this. Puts the shooting percentage discussion in perspective.

Throwing a whole pile of money at anyone over term is always inherently risky. Concerns about the limited body of work are fair. Putting ton of weight on his play at 21 versus his play at 24 is not supported by the way most NHL players develop and he barely played the 2 years in between. I’ve seen enough to be reasonably confident he can be a good 2nd line centre for the majority of the next 8years. And that’s what this contract will pay him to be. I sign the deal now because I see the chances of him being more are greater than the chances of him being less, and, like @Thorny said I need guys to outplay their contracts. I also see the cultural value in rewarding guys who exemplify the culture.

Dude, you watched Thompson play 65 garbage games when he was 21 under Phil Housley and wasn’t ready for the NHL. Then you watched him play 100ish games under Donnie when he was 23 and 24 and put up 80ish points. Readjust your glasses man. The 4 versus 1 thing ain’t real.

He looked way overmatched three years ago playing 65 games at 21 when he should have been in Rochester. I’ve watched one garbage year, not 4. ***** Chris Drury had his 1st 60-point season at 23, had just 44 NHL points before that. Danny Briere had his 1st 60-point season at 24, had just 40 NHL points before that Jason Pominville had his first 60-point season at 24, had just 30 NHL points before that Tage Thompson had his first 60-point season at 24, had just 35 NHL points before that. You act like a player emerging out of nowhere at Tage’s age has never happened before, or that it never gets sustained.

I remember way back 2017 when a kid jumped to 34 goals and 70 points out of nowhere after putting up just 26 points the year before. David Pastrnak’s $6.67 million AAV over 6 years has looked pretty nice since. Smart teams give contracts like this to the right players and profit for years.

It’s funny how everyone is worried that he might be overpaid if he slides back. He was underpaid by about $6 million last year and probably will be again this year. Loving the example being shown that the team will reward the guys who produce and live the culture. Also love the potential for this to act as a bit of a drag on other salaries in the same way Marchand and Bergeron did for all those years in Boston. If Tage is a 2C, it’s fair. If he’s a 1C, Adams can use it as a lever to keep other salaries down.

This is a fantastic deal. 6’7” 38-goal centres who can skate don’t grow on trees. We’ve got him for his entire prime. I was thinking it was going to take $8. It should have. Well done Adams.

Well, there goes my Thompson Expectations thread write-up all to hell…🤬 😜

I feel like the guy who noticed the service has improved, likes the plans the new management unveiled, and found the new sample tray a clear cut above what they used to serve. Now I’m actually looking forward to tasting the new menu, and seeing how the new chef and his staff will develop it.

Did anyone else see this list ranked the Bruins dead last, with only 3 players projected to play in the NHL? (The Sabres had 19) Boston's top prospect, Lysell, is ranked 170th overall. Will this ever be meaningful?

So we like Granato, and we like Ventura, and we like Karmanos and his team with the Amerks, and now we like Forton too? What the hell is happening? (Seriously, interesting piece. Thanks for posting)

I don't think you can ask for much more than what Z gives you from a 4th-liner. Count me in among the "cup-winners need guys like this" crowd. I think his future with the Sabres is tied to what they get this year from Okposo, Asplund and Cozens (and to a lesser extent Krebs and Peterka) when the other team has the puck. If you've got offensive guys who are also reliable matchup guys he's going to be a spare part, but if they can't defend, you're going to need a player like Girgs for that role.

In each of his 5 previous seasons, Zemgus Girgensons put up between 15 and 19 points. No would should be surprised with last year’s 18. Neither should anyone be surprised that he missed time to injury — 26 games to be exact, after missing the entire previous year with a hamstring tear. As he has throughout his career, he continued to getting some of the toughest deployments on the team, with 64% defensive zone starts and plenty of shorthanded ice time. Overall, he finished 7th among forwards in average ice time, at 14:47 a game. https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=130896 Girgensons was named co-alternate captain to start the season, along with Kyle Okposo. He earned praise for his commitment and attitude, but clearly took a backseat to Okposo as a public face of leadership, on and off the ice. He enters the season with the possibility of being shifted to centre under consideration. He is also a pending unrestricted free agent, on a roster with a number of young forwards pressing for ice time. What do you expect from Zemgus Girgensons? (Last year's takes here):

Why shouldn’t Jack have a similar rookie season to Sam (23 goals, 42points)? He’s a year older than Sam was as a rookie. Sam’s totals the year before his NHL rookie season: 47/19/46/65 in the WHL Jack’s totals the year before his NHL rookie season: 45/26/35/61 in the AHL