dudacek

Neither do the voters. Quite the sweep here for the optimists

There must have been times during the past year when Casey Mittelstadt looked at his buddy Tage Thompson and said “it coulda been me.” Coming off the best stretch of hockey in his life in the spring of 2021, Casey was the star of last year’s training camp and entered the season firmly slotted as the Sabres 1C. You know the rest: the opening night injury, a recovery fraught with setbacks and spotty production, and a lineup void at centre that Thompson admirably filled to the tune of 38 goals and $50 million. Mittelstadt made some modest gains on his possession numbers, coming in at just under 50%, but never found that 60-point gear he had shown to close out the previous season. https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=192483 As training camp looms, he and Thompson may finish the circle. Both Casey and Don Granato have referenced the likelihood that the lifelong centre might see considerable time at wing this year. Rightly or wrongly, early Mittelstadt was pigeonholed as an immature talent who really didn’t have clue about the dedication and the discipline necessary to be a pro. The past year or so, chatter coming out of the organization paints a different picture: a 24/7 hockey nerd and glue guy in the room, who desperately wants to be an impact player and has put in the time to do so, only to have his efforts short-circuited by misfortune. He is poised to turn 24 this season and has reached that time when you stop becoming a projection and simply are what you are. There is a large group of offensively gifted young forwards coming hard for his ice time and he needs to show he can produce at a 2nd line pace in more than fits and starts, or he risks losing his job. What do you expect from Mittelstadt this year? (Last year’s takes here):

No scoffing from me. I think you’re right: most hockey execs run the D the way they do because that’s what’s been shown to work. What you might be hearing is resistance to the automatic assumption that a guy can’t or shouldn’t play his off-hand. I think if Brandon Montour is a #3 on his right side and a #6 on his left side, you’re wasting an asset playing him on his left side and you need to make a move to correct the imbalance But if Jacob Bryson is a #6 on either side, there is no reason not to play him as your 3rd-pairing RHD. I agree that most D are better on their strong side under modern systems and that’s why they are deployed that way.

Wasn’t arguing against any of this. The bold was my entire point. It is the way it is because the hockey world generally believes that’s best way to win hockey games. Doesn’t mean they’re 100 % right in all instances, mind you. I think it’s more like being “big” or “fast” or good at faceoffs. it might be an advantage, but it’s not necessarily a necessity. I will say that the game evolves; I remember a time when this didn’t really matter and a time when CCCP dominated the world with the entire team shooting left. So it may evolve again when coaches and/or players perceive a tactical advantage.

Remember Reinhart’s 3rd year when he was taken off O’Reilly’s wing to start the year and instead was asked to centre the 3rd line? And Phil and Jason gave him Benoit Pouliot and Seth Griffith to play with? What’s Jack’s worst-case scenario right now? 4th line minutes with Girgs and Hinostroza, or Peterka and Krebs?

I wouldn’t say primarily, but GM for the Amerks is among his specific duties.

The athletic with good fuel for the skeptics: a list of 20 times a player was signed following an outlier shooting % year and the contract blew up in the team’s face: https://theathletic.com/3559089/2022/09/02/nhl-contracts-shooting-percentage-tage-thompson/ You’ll recognize the names Leino, Skinner and Stafford. (Sorry, @eleven) IMO most of the players don’t match Tage’s profile in that they weren’t just starting their careers, but the author says it is hard to find examples of players who maintained that kind of leap in their shooting.

This. I’m certainly not opposed to adding RHD with upside, but this guy at 22 seems to be in the same place in his development today where Jokiharju was at 19. He seems to be a Pilut type player with a skill set that’s kinda redundant on a team with Power and Dahlin.

Looking at anchoring from another angle: Player A is 23. He has put up career highs of 32 goals and 68 points. He’s got 89 points in 106 games over the past 2 years. Player B is 24. He has put up career highs of 38 goals and 68 points. He’s got 82 points in 116 games over the past 2 years. Player A is touted by many as franchise centre, with the possibility of a 100-point season in his future. Player B is being talked about by many as a major risk to hit 60 points again. The difference between the 2 is basically 2019 when Elias Pettersson’s Calder Trophy season fixed him in the minds of most as a superstar in the making, and Tage’s Thompson awkward toe drags while ROR was winning the Conn Smythe fixed him in the minds of most as a terrible bust. Anchoring is a real thing.

@LGR4GM posted a while ago about “anchoring” and how once people’s initial impression is cemented it is very hard to move them off of it. Most of the criticisms I’ve seen of the Tage contract have very little to do about his game on the ice. They mostly amount to “I thought he was ***** before last year, so last year must have been a fluke. Look at his shooting %. He won’t repeat.” Development is rarely a straight line, but there is nothing unusual about a forward breaking out into what he is somewhere between 22-24, or after 200-300 NHL games and spending the next 6-8 years revolving around that level. Because of injury and Ralph, Tage never had that 40-point ”maybe he’s better than I thought” transition year statistically to show people, but clearly he spent 2019-21 getting stronger and getting better.

That's exactly how I described him, although Taro pointed out how Varada was actually a big producer as a prospect.

The Sabres signed a number of cheap bottom-of-the-lineup veterans last summer that Sabrespace collectively dubbed the JAGs: low-maintenance, good-guy space-fillers designed to buy time and not do much else. Most of them did exactly what they were signed to do. Vinnie was the exception, finishing 6th among forwards in goals, points/60 minutes and ES ice time, while basically breaking even as a puck possession player. https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=130908 His efforts — alone among the Sabres UFA players — earned him a contract extension. That 1-year extension included a raise from $1 to $1.7 million. The money quotes? Granato: “We missed that guy that kind of drags others into the fight because he just plays at such a high pace. If you’re his two linemates and you’re not ready to play at a high pace, you’re either gonna hear from him or you’re not going to be able to keep up.” Hinostroza: “You don’t get to see the inside of the locker room and really how close-knit this team is and how close it is to being something really special. I think being a part of it is something really cool. This is a place I want to be. I don’t want to keep moving around. I want to be somewhere that I love and I love it here.” What do you expect from Vinnie Hinostroza? (Last year’s takes here):

Truly the one who will lead the (Sabre) dance. https://www.name-doctor.com/name-prokhor-meaning-of-prokhor-1936.html

And I’d say the pros lean towards offence and the cons toward defence, so you know which way most coaches will lean.

Well, if history means anything, the chances of Thompson slipping back into being a career 20-goal scorer are pretty slim. 17 other Sabres have scored 35 or more goals in a single season. 15 of them hit 30 at least 4 times in their career. Mogilny: 8 30-goal seasons, 473 career goals Gare:: 8 25-goal seasons, 354 career goals Lafontaine: 9 30 goal seasons, 468 career goals Martin: 8 30 goal seasons, 384 career goals Perreault: 13 25-goal seasons, 512 career goals Vanek: 8 25 goal seasons, 383 career goals Andreychuk: 13 25 goal seasons, 640 career goals Foligno: 9 25 goal seasons, 468 career goals Turgeon: 9 30 goal seasons, 515 career goals Robert: 6 25 goal seasons, 284 career goals Satan: 9 25 goal seasons, 363 career goals Skinner: 7 24 goal seasons, 298 career goals Sheppard: 9 24 goal seasons, 357 career goals Drury: 5 23 goal seasons, 255 career goals McKegney: 9 23-goal seasons, 320 career goals Eichel: 5 24 goal seasons, 153 career goals Hawerchuk: 10 30 goal seasons, 518 career goals The 2 that didn't/haven't were Eichel and Drury. Eichel is the only one without at least 250 career goals. It seems that when a Sabre scores as well as Thompson did this year, he's likely to keep scoring.

I’m intrigued in seeing where his game is at camp. Last year, they were hoping he’d take the job and ended up with the worst camp of the four. This year, it feels like they’ve already got him ticketed to Rochester. I wonder if he can change some minds.

The play of each this year determines whether they get term or a bridge.

Quoted because it didn’t get enough attention during the year and isn’t getting enough now. This kid got crushed by the internet for getting traded for O’Reilly, he wrecked his shoulder knocking him out for an entire season, he nursed his now-wife through cancer, and he got shunted to the taxi squad after 4 periods by Ralph Krueger. He kept his mouth shut, built his toothpick frame into a 220 pound powerhouse, earned his way on to the first line with his play, and has fully embraced Buffalo and the Sabres. He’s conducted himself exactly like we want a player to conduct himself and he’s worked for everything he’s got.

I'm not saying Tage is a 40/40 man — on the contrary, I see him more as a 30/30 — but I would not be surprised if he has that big 80-point season in him sometime over the next 8 years. He put up 24/16/40 in the 2nd half of last season, he works hard at his craft and his tool kit is a unicorn.

Thanks for this. Puts the shooting percentage discussion in perspective.

Throwing a whole pile of money at anyone over term is always inherently risky. Concerns about the limited body of work are fair. Putting ton of weight on his play at 21 versus his play at 24 is not supported by the way most NHL players develop and he barely played the 2 years in between. I’ve seen enough to be reasonably confident he can be a good 2nd line centre for the majority of the next 8years. And that’s what this contract will pay him to be. I sign the deal now because I see the chances of him being more are greater than the chances of him being less, and, like @Thorny said I need guys to outplay their contracts. I also see the cultural value in rewarding guys who exemplify the culture.

Dude, you watched Thompson play 65 garbage games when he was 21 under Phil Housley and wasn’t ready for the NHL. Then you watched him play 100ish games under Donnie when he was 23 and 24 and put up 80ish points. Readjust your glasses man. The 4 versus 1 thing ain’t real.

He looked way overmatched three years ago playing 65 games at 21 when he should have been in Rochester. I’ve watched one garbage year, not 4. ***** Chris Drury had his 1st 60-point season at 23, had just 44 NHL points before that. Danny Briere had his 1st 60-point season at 24, had just 40 NHL points before that Jason Pominville had his first 60-point season at 24, had just 30 NHL points before that Tage Thompson had his first 60-point season at 24, had just 35 NHL points before that. You act like a player emerging out of nowhere at Tage’s age has never happened before, or that it never gets sustained.

I remember way back 2017 when a kid jumped to 34 goals and 70 points out of nowhere after putting up just 26 points the year before. David Pastrnak’s $6.67 million AAV over 6 years has looked pretty nice since. Smart teams give contracts like this to the right players and profit for years.

It’s funny how everyone is worried that he might be overpaid if he slides back. He was underpaid by about $6 million last year and probably will be again this year. Loving the example being shown that the team will reward the guys who produce and live the culture. Also love the potential for this to act as a bit of a drag on other salaries in the same way Marchand and Bergeron did for all those years in Boston. If Tage is a 2C, it’s fair. If he’s a 1C, Adams can use it as a lever to keep other salaries down.