dudacek

Zach Werenski and Charlie McAvoy got $9.5 in exactly the same situation (RFA, arb rights, 1 year from UFA). They are literally the only recent direct comparables I could find; everyone else went term on the second contract, rather than bridge. You gotta believe that 2 years later $9.5 will be his floor, unless he reverts to a Ralph-level performance. I think $10 is going to be a safe bet.

It wasn’t that long ago Casey Fitzgerald was having trouble fitting in to the 6-man rotation for Rochester. But his play during the season’s first half for the Amerks earned him a call-up and a serious look-see from the Sabres to close the year out. Don Granato didn’t hesitate to throw him to the wolves, although his TOI dropped from a little over 19 minutes in February, to 15:11 in April. His +/- was ugly considering the fact he only played 36 games. His Corsi was better, comparable to Jokiharju and Samuelsson at 48%. He finished 2nd on the team in hits/60 and 5th in blocked shots/60. https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=170288 Fitzgerald — who signed with the Sabres after 4 full college seasons despite being eligible for free agency — made an impression on his Rochester coaches, who described him as a self-made, all-situations, 1st-pairing player at that level. He also made an impression on fans in Buffalo with his willingness to play physical, step up for his teammates and generally attack the game. It remains to be seen whether he has enough size and skill to supplement that effort and turn himself into a full-time NHLer. If he doesn’t, he can no longer be sent down without being exposed on waivers. What do you expect from Casey Fitzgerald?

If this season (for Dahlin and the Sabres) happens the way we hope, this may make the negotiations easier than they could be. That’s because it may influence Ras to set the bar in a Hedman fashion, rather than a Tkachuk fashion. Because he absolutely has the hammer if he chooses to exercise it.

Last Sabre who wasnt a top 10 pick to make the team the same year he was drafted — at least as far as I can tell — was Dave Andreychuk in 1982. Looks like Eichel, Ristolainen and Dahlin are the only players to do it since Pierre Turgeon

I think we all agree the team needs to identify which of the young guys are core and lock them up to long-term value deals. The debate is this player at that contract. Because every time Adams tries to lock up a guy long-term at value, we will be repeating this conversation. In order to get a value deal, you have to inherently take risks. Proven guys are going to get market value or they won’t sign.

After the initial disappointment of no Portillo, Levi or Johnson, Rochester sure ratcheted up the interest level with Kisakov, Rosen and Kulich. (And I still think we will see Johnson and Levi sign and play this season.)

When David Pastrnak signed his last deal (6x6.7}, he had just jumped from a career high of 26 points to 70. The Bruins made him the league’s 49th highest-paid player. Five years later, he’s the NHL’s 89th highest-paid player, even with 2 years of flat cap dragging down salaries. Right now, Tage (7x7.1) will be the 75th-highest paid player when his contract kicks in. $7 million is not what it used to be and it’s going to be a lot less by the time his contract is over.

He is the league’s 21st-highest paid centre. He finished 31st in points and 48th in goals, 9 points behind the 21st-highest scorer. So, already in the ballpark in terms of value, and, if he keeps producing the way he has the value is only going to improve over the next 8 years. Canadiens are happy.

Oh yeah, generally agree. could have had him from 22-28 for what $8ish? (Heiskanen Chabot Hughes) The plus is we should get Rasmus until 31 now, but those 25-29 years are going to cost more than they would have. Probably $10 given the leverage he’s going to have.

Thompson, and Adams comments in the wake of it, leads me to believe a Dahlin extension will be a priority for him next summer. Dahlin’s conduct leads me to believe it will get done, but if he has the season most of us suspect it won’t be cheap.

I’d say it’s actually based on the overall body of work since Adams got here, including things like off-ice habits and attitude, leadership, character, development, what he’s shown in practice, a deep dive into his analytics and the way his game has trended. It hasn’t been one season of fringe play, followed by one season of 68 points, it’s been 120 games of steady improvement. Otherwise, except for the part about him being overpaid if he doesn’t continue to produce an average of 38 goals and 68 points a season (as spelled out upthread, 25 and 60 are more realistic) over the term of the contract, what you're saying is entirely true. From what Adams has seen of Thompson, he bet the over. We all hope he was right.

I’ll say it again: 1st season 41 NHL games (emergency NHL recall, limited role): .22 points per game 2nd season 65 (NHL spare part, should have been in Rochester): .18 points per game 3rd season 38 (taxi squad under Ralph, regular under Donnie): .37 points per game 4th season 1st half 38 (emerging top 6 usage): .76 points per game 4th season 2nd half 40 (1st line centre): 1.0 points per game The trend line is pretty clear

Pilut battles Fitzgerald for the #7 slot. Not sure who gets it, or if the Sabres keep 8 D

Injuries (his and others) mean it will be the rare night Vinnie is a healthy scratch. He’ll contribute and make the Krebs and the Quinns better players.

Fully on board with optimists here. Dahlin will be a legit 1D for a full season and as the year goes on the league will start to realize it.

Comrie and UPL better be ready. If we get 10 good starts out of Andy, I will be surprised.

Casey will have a career year and establish himself as an NHL player. He will also establish himself as a Holzinger/Plante level NHLer and not a part of the future core. He’ll be gone as soon as Savoie is ready. Pulling for him, but I think he’s the final victim of the dark years.

Based on last year (15 goals, 59 points), Matt Barzal was paid pretty much at exactly market value for points and overpaid for goals. He was 29th among centres in salary, 34th in points and 68th in goals. Not sure about the rest because none of them are centres and I haven’t crunched the numbers for wingers. But given Sam was 26th in the entire league in points and Connor had 47 goals, based on production, I’d say it’s pretty safe to say those two were underpaid.

Wasn’t Casey on the top PP to finish the year, in VO’s place? I remember Cozens/Krebs/VO was a thing late in the year on PP2

Two numbers stand out while considering what Craig Anderson meant to the Sabres last year. The first is .897, a save percentage that ranked Anderson 45th among the 53 NHL goalies who played at least 25 games. The second is .548, Anderson’s winning percentage, good for 18th out of the same pool. This on a team with an overall points percentage of .454. https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=130908 The Sabres didn’t ignore the first set of numbers, signing Eric Comrie to compete with Anderson and Ukko-Pekka Lukkonnen for the starter’s job. But not before they doubled down on the latter, re-signing Anderson for another year while giving him a raise from $750,000 to as high as $2 million if he hits incentives. It can’t be ignored that Anderson is 41 and was pulled off the retirement heap last summer after playing just 4 games the previous season. It should also not be forgotten that the last time he played more than 30 games and put up a save percentage over .903 was in 2017. But Kevyn Adams said he also couldn’t ignore the effect the cagey vet — who called last season one of the most fun he’d ever experienced — had on his young team: "He gave us a chance to win when he was in the net. He played well, and he also gave our team confidence. When you look at our young D corps, just that kind of mentorship that he showed I think really went a long way for some of our defensemen." What do you expect from Craig Anderson this year? (Last year’s takes here):

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Like @Thorny said, based on statistical trends Miller’s a much safer bet short-term. Long-term, Thompson offers much better up-side. There’s a chance the Miller deal may turn out like the Okposo deal, but a better bet is that he puts up 70 points for a few more seasons before he falls off. When and by how much will determine how good the deal is. It’s the standard gamble one takes with a UFA in his late 20s. Thompson is the standard gamble GMs have to decide whether to take on RFAs on their 3rd contract. The Sabres decided to role the dice with Eichel and Thompson, and not with Reinhart and Olofsson.

I don’t think so. The contract doesn’t kick in until 23/24. If it were in effect this year, it would rank Tage 29th among centres. Last year, Tage ranked 8th among centres in goals, 23rd in points. I’d say good value exists as long as he is statistically producing, say, 25th to 40th among NHL centres. Based on last year’s totals, 27 goals and 64 points is fair value. But the point of this deal for the Sabres is that as salaries rise around the league, Tage’s will not. Many players will pass him. In 3 or 4 years, he may only need to rank 40-50th statistically to be at fair value, and at the end of the deal, assuming the cap behaves like it usually does, that may be 60-75th.

Adams in the Buffalo News Adams wants the extension to serve as a message the club will reward players who are committed to improving and want to be in Buffalo. “I think one of the things I've talked to our players about, both collectively as a team and individually, is we want to do this the right way and really build this to set ourselves up for sustainable success,” he added. “And to do that, we have to identify who fits and who doesn't, who wants to be here, and who wants to be here for the right reasons. And we made it very clear when players show that and perform, that's how we're going to move forward with this group. “I think for the players, this is just maybe an example to our group of what we've been talking about. To me, it's exciting. And we really want our players to perform and be in a position where we can do this more and more.” We’ve talked a lot about signings, and I've talked to (media) about discipline, and making sure that we're doing things appropriately. And one of the reasons we’re doing that is so we have the ability to sign our key core younger players to deals like this. We're also being strategic a little bit, to be honest, about the timeline knowing that there's other guys potentially next summer where we're going to be in this situation. We want to make sure we're being strategic on when and how we put these deals together. And that's why I felt like it made the most sense for us right now.” https://buffalonews.com/sports/sabres/inside-the-sabres-how-team-navigated-a-unique-marketplace-to-sign-tage-thompson/article_b17a4254-2aba-11ed-b45b-2b1b8ad1f5dd.html

They shoot the other way and are often listed the other way, but Peterka played RW and Quinn LW most of the time in Rochester. I think flipping them in your lineup makes more sense from a chemistry style as well: Peterka’s style is closer to Tuch’s and Quinn’s Skinner.