dudacek

It’s back, to fill those dog days of hockey talk leading up to training camp: our annual chance to test the temperature about what Sabrespace thinks of the roster. A lot of things have changed since last summer, but one thing that has not is the number of players who have some large question marks hanging over their heads. Starting this earlier this year because I should have last year. I will try to post a new thread every day or two leading up to camp and the start of the season. *** Despite coming off some iffy numbers in Rochester, Lukkonnen started the year as the team’s top prospect in net and with an open road to the NHL, with only the likes of Aaron Dell and Dustin Tokarski standing in his way. He whiffed badly, following up a bad training camp with a series of poor October games for the Amerks. He started to turn things around in November, and a .932 save percentage in 6 December games in Buffalo rekindled hope that he was finally ready to take a step. But, as he seems to always do, he got hurt, was uneven again in his Amerks return, showed improvement, then got hurt again, missing the Amerks playoff run. https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=196751 Kevyn Adams still professes faith in UPL’s character and ability, but has to be growing frustrated with his inconsistencies and lack of availability. He’s only played 70 games in Rochester over the past 3 seasons and the team seems to want to see him carry the load as a #1 over an extended period there before making a call on his future. What do you expect from him this year? (Last year’s takes here):

Agree @mjd1001. As usual, I wrote more than I needed to, but what it boils down to is: the hockey world is generally saying treating Tkachuk like he’s a 100-point scorer with grit, when it is more likely he’s a 75-point scorer with maintenance issues. Down Goes Brown did a piece on the “Shiny New Toy Contract” where a team trades for a big name player and signs him immediately to a huge deal. Almost universally, recent such deals have turned out bad: Seth Jones, Jeff Skinner, Erik Karlsson, Justin Faulk, Jacob Trouba, Ryan McDonough, Evander Kane, Jordan Staal, Jason Spezza, Corey Schneider, Bobby Ryan… He says the exceptions were Dougie Hamilton and Ryan O’Reilly, which were more fair than good for the team. https://theathletic.com/3471039/2022/08/04/nhl-contract-disasters-history-seth-jones/ The article was inspired by the Huberdeau deal and even goes out of its way to say Tkachuk might be an exception. Im not so sure.

The bold is what I was responding to. How much can this year really tell us about how good a group of 17- to 20-year-olds will eventually be? If it’s about the thin edge of the wedge showing signs, then you are talking 2 or 3 players out of a group of about 35. None of those 2 or 3 need to start ripping up the league at 20. Or will necessarily become stars if they do. What did we learn from Victor Hedman’s 26-point D+2 season or Nikita Kucherov’s 18-point D+3 season? Or the rookie years of Tyler Myers, Tyler Ennis and Luke Adam for that matter?

Also going against the grain here: hockey fans often make the mistake of conflating being a dick with being a competitor and that has made Matthew Tkachuk among hockey's more overrated players. Don't get me wrong, he's a heck of a hockey player, easy 1st-line talent, but I'm pretty sure Matt spells team with an "I". There's a fine line between being a shift-disturber and an asshat, and Tkachuk is on the wrong side of that line more often than the Hockey establishment would have you believe. He does what he wants, how he wants and when. He's just as likely to pull his team apart as he is to fire them up. Do you think Matt had anything other than his own best interests in mind when orchestrated his way out of Calgary and into a warm-weather, low-pressure tax-free state as quickly and as profitably as possible? You think it's a coincidence that this 70-point player turned into a 100-point player during a contract year? Or that he hit those heights playing with one of the league's best-puckhandlers and one of its better 2-way centres? Eight years is a long time time. I'm betting it's not going to take long for reports of friction to surface in Florida. Of course, it will be spun as Matt ridding the president's trophy winning team of it's "country-club atmosphere." As I said earlier, he's a heck of a player and I'm sure he will make our lives miserable many times over the next 8 years. But I wonder when people are going to start asking themselves what has Matt Tkachuk ever won?

Agree with @Thorny's take that turning your 29-year-old $9.5-million-over-8-years 1st-line winger into a 24-year-old $9.5-million-over-8-years 1st-line winger is excellent GMing, even when you've gotta toss in a 1st-rounder and a good 2/3 defenceman to make it happen. That said, Florida better hope Spencer Knight turns into Vasilevskiy because that is their only hope of ever winning anything. With the exception of Anton Lundell, every other player on that roster is already as good as he will ever be. Many are coming off a career year. They have no prospects of note in the system, no draft picks over the next 3 years with which to restock, and limited capspace to manouevre. Don't get me wrong, Barkov, Tkachuk, and Ekblad in their prime, plus some good support in that same window should keep them competitive. But they weren't good enough last year and they got worse in the off-season. Sabre reject Brandon Montour, waiver-wire claim Gustav Forsling and noted thug Radko Gudas are in their top 4. Zito went all in last year. And missed. Tkachuk for Huberdeau is not going to change that.

I think its over-eager to expect this year’s team to tell us a lot on the success of Adams drafting. Adams has had 3 drafts. it’s 2-5 years for picks to arrive, then add a couple more for them to fully develop. Steve Yzerman was named GM of Tampa in 2010, inheriting an 80-point team. In 2013 the team missed the playoffs despite having already assembled a list of core players including Stamkos, Hedman, Johnson, Kucherov, Palat, Killorn and Vasilievskiiy. The reason was largely because none of those players except Stamkos was even a whisper yet of what they would become. Not sure why you’d expect the likes of Peterka, Quinn and Power to develop at a quicker pace.

And I wonder if that indirectly improved his game by forcing him to be more rounded. I actually thought Victor’s October, prior to the injury was the best - most complete - he’d played to that point in the NHL, but the 10 ES points in April probably surpassed that. The fact that 8 of them were assists certainly contradicts the stereotype. I think there’s a good case to be made that VO is the most underrated breakout threat on the team next year. The simple fact that he has averaged 24 goals and 31 assists over 82 games points to a career year if he stays healthy. But a deeper look shows he put up 18/16/34 in the 36 games he played in October, March and April - the time he was able to shoot. The fact that he has never in his career had a drought like he had in the middle of this season feeds the case it was injury related. Add the fact his linemates are likely to be improved and 30 goals and 60 points is not out of the question.

The philosophy demands internal growth in order to be successful. Last year, the rebuild elevated Dahlin and Thompson, resuscitated Okposo and Skinner, and added Samuelsson, Krebs, Asplund and Tuch as useful parts. For it to continue to be a success, we need it do most of the following: maintain Dahlin, Tuch, Thompson, Okposo and Skinner; elevate Mittelstadt, Jokiharju, Olofsson and Cozens, and add Power, Quinn, Peterka, Lyubushkin and Comrie.

56 goals in 103 AHL games! If I knew that, I’d forgotten. I think Poltapov doesn’t backcheck like Varada did and also has some puck hog tendencies. He sure looks good 1-on-1 in traffic though, with and without the puck. He’ll carry guys on his back while making them want to punch him.

It should be noted that Poltapov also starts the play behind the net sacrificing his body on the cycle on the Neuchev highlight.

Really don’t think this board understands what kind of player Poltapov is. He forechecks and disrupts like Vaclav Varada, but also might have enough skill to play in a top 6.

Three considerations need to be added to this conversation: The first is (as I mentioned in the other thread) that the Sabres seem to prefer the USNDP development model of challenging young talent by “playing them up” while giving them both increased support and adversity through on-ice responsibility. Thompson on the 1st line, Cozens vs McDavid, Dahlin and Joki getting the hard minutes, Quinn and Peterka on the 1st line in the AHL in their D+2 seasons - the Sabres often work against the grain over conventional NHL thinking when it comes to development. The 2nd is they seem to want to work with their prospects in terms of giving them some autonomy in charting their own development path. Adams talks about it all the time. Kisakov is in North America largely because he wants to be in North America. Östlund was very clear about going back to Sweden. And the 3rd is the most obvious, but seems to be the most overlooked up-thread: just how good is Kulich right now? He stood out among his peers at development camp. But was he on a tier with Jack and JJ? With Weissbach and Rousek? There is no doubt in my mind that the Sabres would prefer to have hands-on control over Kulich with Appert and Peca in Rochester with all else being equal. I think the presence of Rousek and Pekar with the Amerks provides a rare opportunity to help him with the cultural transition. I’m not particularly worried about the physical aspect; he’s not small and he played all of last year against men. And he wants to be here. So to me, the only thing preventing him from being an Amerk is the state of his game. Is he good enough to play with the Brett Murrays and the Ethan Prows? Training camp should tell.

Incidental to the current story, but the best quote in the Athletic article came from Shields: Shields told the officer that none of his statements could have been reasonably interpreted as threatening or aggressive in nature and that “it is not in his nature to fight people, nor has it ever been.” Are we sure that it’s this Steve Shields? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nm6L5tCoLyo

Not suggesting he personally did anything wrong, but Portillo actually benefited from Pearson’s toxic behaviour. The coach’s retaliation against Strauss Mann made Portillo the unquestioned starter. The fact that Portillo rejected a contract offer despite working in an environment where 1/3 of the players described the workplace situation as toxic tells me he had at least a peripheral awareness of the situation, but was not personally negatively affected. This report should not affect his status as a Ross School student or as Michigan’s starting goalie, even if it leads to Pearson being replaced. Therefore, I don’t see it affecting his status with the Sabres either. Thorough piece on the findings here for those with an Athletic subscription. https://theathletic.com/3468455/2022/08/02/mel-pearson-michigan/

One of the most interesting non-Sabres story lines of next year will be what Appert and Peca do with Rosen, as well as Kisakov and hopefully Kulich. Certainly the coaching approach is going to be 180 degrees from what Rosen got last year in Sweden.

I don’t think it is semantics to say Adams mistake was not that he didn’t re-sign Ullmark, it was that he believed he was going to re-sign Ullmark and did not have a back-up plan. The degree of damage caused by that mistake will be determined by the quality of play delivered this year by Comrie, Anderson and UPL.

“What has been fundamental is the creation of a safe environment where there’s a lot of adversity.” ”While there is no trading, no cutting and no waiving players, there are expectations and even elite prospects come up against a host of new challenges. The first year you come in and (you are playing in the NHL as a 20-year-old). It’s important to have that competitiveness and not to use it as an excuse.” ”It’s about what they do once they arrive, whether they seize the opportunity that’s put in front of them, that determines what happens.” Sound familiar? It’s not Donnie Granato or Seth Appert talking about the Sabres or their prospects. These are the guiding principles of the US National Development program - perhaps the best production factory for top NHL hockey players of the past decade. I was reading a profile on the USNDP and it turned into a light bulb moment: Granato and Appert have taken the principles of the program they used to run with 16 and 17 year olds in the USHL and applied them to NHLers on ELC contracts. Basically, the USNDP takes a collection of youthful, elite talents gives them a sense of team and trust and belonging and then pushes them out against older, better competition with no place to hide. It forces them to figure out how to compete and ultimately win by taking responsibility for their own development: facing and eventually overcoming challenges. The USNDP philosophy says you get that by playing late when you’re up or down a goal, and by lining up at the dot against the best players the other team has to offer. You don’t get it watching from the press box or by sitting at the end of the bench after making a bad pass. The Logan Cooleys and the Cole Caufields start with the USNDTP as overmatched kids and they end up as 1st-round draft picks. The Sabres are trying to create a similar crucible to turn 1st-round picks like Rasmus Dahlin and Tage Thompson into NHL stars. The hope is the likes of Samuelsson, Krebs, and Quinn will also thrive under the same model. They’ve already met the challenge of being Amerks. Time to learn from the next challenge. And that is why we will see them this year instead of Klingberg or Kadri. Even if it means some delayed gratification. As far as the Kevyn Adams Sabres go, this is what draft and develop looks like.

This is what my eye test suggests as well, as much as I respect Taro’s eye test and acknowledge the underlying numbers support his point of view.

Contract slides in the AHL. Kulich weighed in at 178 at the combine. Peterka was listed at 192 last year, Quinn at 185.

It will be interesting to see where the Sabres go with Kulich this year given his apparently advanced development status. Continue to play with men in the Czech league where he can challenge himself to elevate to a top 6 role and develop his body and his confidence in a comfortable social environment while postponing his cultural and small-ice adjustment. Dominate his peers and pile up big numbers while getting used to North American culture and rinks in the Q. Risk being over his head in the AHL while getting hands-on teaching from the Sabres staff and cultural support from the Czech mafia of Rousek and Pekar. From what I’ve seen of Kulich’s personality and talent, I’m inclined to want him to be in Rochester. He seems to be mentally tough and I think the positive presence of Pekar and Rousek should not be overlooked. He’s just gotta show he’s ready to play a regular shift at that level.

Just to be clear, the list takes a players’ performance under a specific analytics model, projected based on recent trends over the lifetime of the contract. It’s not about how many points a player got last year versus how much he got paid. It’s about the term and the trend. It’s about how poorly a player is trending under Dom Luscycyn’s model versus how much he is going to get paid.

O’Reilly

Wing Skinner G33 P63 -14 * Bratt G26 P73 0 Okposo G21 P46 -15 * Palat G18 P49 +15 Tuch G12 P38 -3 * Sharangovich G24 P46 -14 Olofsson G20 P49 -16 * Tatar G15 P30 -22 Hinostroza G13 P25 -11 * Johnsson G13 P35 +4 Asplund G8 P27 -5 * Haula G18 P44 +19 Krebs G7 P22 -20 * Boqvist G10 P23 -9 Quinn G1 P2 -7 * Holtz G0 P2 -5 Peterka G0 P0 0 * Wood G0 P0 -2 Bjork G5 P8 -14 * Bastian G11 P16 -11

Centre Thompson G38 P68 -17 * Hughes G26 P56 -16 Mittelstadt G6 P19 -14 * Hischier G21 P60 -1 Cozens G13 P38 -19 * Mercer G17 P42 -25 Girgensons G10 P18, -7 * McLeod G6 P20 -16

Defence Dahlin 53P, -22 * Hamilton 30P, -19 Power 3P, +3 * Severson 46P, -14 Samuelsson 10P, -10 * Marino 25P, +1 Jokiharju 19P, -8 * Graves 28P, -9 Lyubushkin 15P, -2 * Seigenthaler 14P, -5 Bryson 10P, -9 * Smith 8P, +6