dudacek

“I think you gotta let Skinner be Skinner. He's at his best when he is flying down the ice with the puck on his stick, circling around the net looking for a shot or a swat, and getting on the other teams nerves. So I'm looking to draw up plays that get him the first pass out of the d-zone, and put him on a line with a playmaker and someone with speed and finish that he can look to pass to on the rush.“ @shaaaught!, Sabrespace Not clear whether @SHAAAUGHT!!! is actually Don Granato, but what is clear is this is what Granato basically did with his $9 million 7-goal scorer last year, and it resulted in a return to form from Skinner's dismal performances in the previous two seasons under Ralph Krueger. Skinner doubled his shooting percentage for the previous season’s career low, but his 12.6 wasn’t too far off his career 10.9 average. More significantly, his shots taken also doubled, back in line with his totals in the 5 years previous to Krueger. His ES possession numbers rebounded to 3rd among team regulars. And he resumed his accustomed post in the top 20 of NHL even-strength goal scorers. It wasn’t all smooth — Skinner had just 3 points in October and only 2 in December — but his consistency improved along with the team’s post-Christmas and his 63 points matched his career high. https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=116085 Jeff Skinner has never followed up a 30-goal season with more than 24. He’s never followed up 60+ points with more than 49. He has also never played back-to-back seasons with a centre he complemented as well as Tage Thompson or with a coach who has appeared to trust him as much as Granato. He enters the season firmly ensconced on the Sabres top line, but with a track record of inconsistencies and multiple members of the new core nipping at his heels. What do you expect from Jeff Skinner? (Last year’s takes here, congrats to @pi2000 and @Sabres Fan in NS as the only Spacers to correctly predict Skinner’s return to form):

Keeping Lyubushkin was never something the Leafs could afford. He got a $2.5 million deal. They replaced him with Mark Giordano for $800,000, are already over the cap by $1.5 million and still haven’t signed Rasmus Sandin.

AHL Tage Thompson (age 20) 8/10/18 in 30 games AHL Casey Mittelstadt (age 21) 9/16/25 in 36 games AHL Peyton Krebs (age 20) 5/15/20 in 20 games AHL JJ Peterka (age 19) 28/40/68 in 70 games AHL Jack Quinn (age 20) 26/35/61 in 45 games I know some people are a little gun shy on JJ and Jack, but they really are well ahead of Tage and Casey at the same age.

I don’t have a ton of expectation for Lyubushkin because, like a lot of you, I haven’t followed him much. But I have a ton of curiosity. He seems like a player tailor-made for what our defence corps needed heading into the off-season. Both he and Comrie not only entirely fit the culture Adams is shaping, but they also seem to be products of an analytics-driven moneyball approach where the staff identified potentially undervalued assets that filled a need and aggressively went after them. Fair or not, Lyubushkin’s performance is going to influence my perception of Ventura as much as anything.

So this is less than a week away. Any word on the roster? I'm going to guess eligibility will be non-NHL ELCs, unsigned picks and a handful of free agents Some possibilities: Quinn Krebs Peterka Rosen Savoie Kisakov Rousek Kulich Weissbach Pekar Biro Cedarqvist Bloom Kozak Power Laaksonen Samuelsson Komorov Lindgren Suchanek (unsigned Czech keeper expected to be coming) Nadeau is expected to be out due to surgery. Richard and Sardarian are USHL players I expect will be off to college and unavailable. Others in Europe I will be surprised if Samuelsson and Krebs are there. Power, Quinn, Peterka though, I'm kinda expecting

Burakovsky and Bjorkstrand gotta help that Seattle offence and Beniers is going to get some big ice time. Going to be an interesting battle between those two

Ilya Lyubushkin entered last season off most people’s radar as a late-starting Russian import who had played all of his 134 NHL games in the outpost of Arizona. That changed when a mid-season trade moved him to the white-hot spotlight of Toronto in order to add some hard-to-play-against to a flabby Leafs blueline. Despite being an absolute non-factor offensively, Lyubushkin registered some impressive defensive analytics, adding up to a 51% overall Corsi rating despite 55% D-zone starts. He gained a reputation as a neutralizer while punishing opponents with the 26th-ranked hits/60 rate in the entire league. https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=171177 A heart-and-soul, reliable, no-BS thumper has been on the fanbase wish list since before Mike Weber told the boo-birds where to park their tank. Sabres fans have stared longingly at the dream of Erik Cernak, the concept of Will Borgen and even the delusion of Rasmus Ristolainen. Lyubushkin — signed to fill the roster slot mainly split last year between Robert Hagg and Casey Fitzgerald — might be their best chance in a decade of having those prayers answered. Rugged, responsible in his own zone, and a right-handed shot, Boosh appears to check all the boxes on the Sabres summer shopping list to a “T”. He’s expected to either slot in as big brother to Owen Power on the 2nd pair or provide some muscle alongside Bryson or Pilut on the 3rd pair. What do you expect from Ilya Lyubushkin?

I think he’s borderline to make the team because I don't know if he’s one of the 23 best players.

I’m still sticking with my original Larionov upside comparison, but Sweden has a long history of smart, complete centres like your Lindholms and Zetterbergs and going way back to pioneers like Patrick Sundstrom and Thomas Gradin. He's a bit under the radar due to the Sabres volume of prospects, but I have high hopes for this kid.

Yes. And when he and Peterka played together they were always on their off hands, at least from what I remember.

Who have we seen do this? Dahlin, Cozens, Thompson, Okposo, Fitz and (we think) Lyubushkin? I like the character of this bunch, but I think it's still a legitimate question.

It was a half-season mostly spent sitting on the bench as emergency injury fill-in. He hadn't made the team. We'll never know, but playing in the minors in his 2nd year had he stayed in St. Louis was likely, IMO.

I'm kinda expecting them to run 3 2nd lines this year. It just seems like the best way to properly incorporate Quinn, Krebs and Peterka into the lineup. Skinner Thompson Peterka Quinn Mitts Tuch Krebs Cozens Olofsson or something similar, maybe? I think Quinn and Peterka are advanced enough to play with and against good players. If enough young players take a step, our ability to push the pace over 4 lines could become a weapon.

For top offensive opportunities? Okposo, Krebs, Mitts, Cozens and Peterka, I’d say. At least one of those guys will be the 2C and another the 3C, but they all will be in the mix for PP time. As far as the lineup goes, assuming health, I think he’s got to beat 3 of Peterka, Hinostroza, Krebs, Sheahan and Bjork to be in the starting 12.

Trying to put together a depth chart is impossible, let only predicting lines. The ability of players to play multiple positions really complicates things. I’ve got the pecking order something like this starting camp, based on the way the year finished. But I don’t expect it to shake out this way on the ice: Skinner Thompson Tuch Olofsson Mittelstadt/Cozens Okposo Asplund Girgensons Hinostroza Quinn Krebs Peterka Sheahan Bjork There is a lot of fluidity there, both up and down and between positions.

Quinn slots in at #5 on the Athletic’s list of preseason Calder favourites. https://theathletic.com/3546726/2022/09/08/nhl-calder-trophy-candidates-rankings/ Scott Wheeler says it’s a given he makes the team, what will make or break him in the Calder race is whether or not he can claim the last top 6 wing slot, after Tuch, Skinner and Olofsson.

Power ranked number one on the Athletic’s list of Calder candidates. https://theathletic.com/3546726/2022/09/08/nhl-calder-trophy-candidates-rankings/ Scott Wheeler says no other rookie can count on the minutes Power will get after averaging 22 in his debut and playing well. “The Sabres outscored the opposition 9-8, out-chanced them 75-57, and outshot them 87-63 with Power on the ice at five-on-five, and he played to a team-high expected goals for percentage of 56.”

Generally speaking, which are you more comfortable with: Your team giving 7x7 or 8x8 to their own guy in their early 20s who’s hit 60 points once? Or your team giving a similar contract to another team’s guy in their late 20s who’s done it 4 times? I think teams have run the math.

Stutzle has 87 points in his past 132 games. Thompson 82 in his past 116. People have no problem imagining someone who jumped from 29 points to 58 points when they were 20 years old making another jump to 80. When it happens at 24, different story. “Big guys take longer” is a hockey cliche no one seems ready to buy into in this case.

To lesser extent Davies and Priskie as well. Those 3, Pilut and Fitzpatrick are all 24-26 and proven at the AHL level. They’re all be coming hard for Bryon’s #6 slot and it will be interesting to see how it shakes out.

Fun piece from the Athletic where they collected the anonymous thoughts of the prospects at the recent NHL rookie showcase. https://theathletic.com/3573015/2022/09/07/nhlpa-rookie-showcase-survey/ 6 of the 13 prospects polled picked Power (who was there along with Quinn) for the Calder. McTavish and Beniers each got 2 votes.

Well-said. The Buffalo Sabres will continue to have their decisions questioned until they have demonstrated those decisions are helping them win hockey games.

JT Miller fits the in-and-out and S% spike, but once his shooting percentage jumped, it stayed up. https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/m/millejt01.html

To me the biggest disconnect in the Thompson debate is that the pessimists look at him as one great season after 4 ***** ones and see an unlikely spike. The reality is more like 100 ***** games and 80 great ones sandwiched around a season and a half where he barely played. I would hope Sam Ventura and his crew have done a deeper dive into the numbers than the context-free skimming we've seen from the likes of Willis and Yost.

Zach Werenski and Charlie McAvoy got $9.5 in exactly the same situation (RFA, arb rights, 1 year from UFA). They are literally the only recent direct comparables I could find; everyone else went term on the second contract, rather than bridge. You gotta believe that 2 years later $9.5 will be his floor, unless he reverts to a Ralph-level performance. I think $10 is going to be a safe bet.