dudacek

Ilya Lyubushkin entered last season off most people’s radar as a late-starting Russian import who had played all of his 134 NHL games in the outpost of Arizona. That changed when a mid-season trade moved him to the white-hot spotlight of Toronto in order to add some hard-to-play-against to a flabby Leafs blueline. Despite being an absolute non-factor offensively, Lyubushkin registered some impressive defensive analytics, adding up to a 51% overall Corsi rating despite 55% D-zone starts. He gained a reputation as a neutralizer while punishing opponents with the 26th-ranked hits/60 rate in the entire league. https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=171177 A heart-and-soul, reliable, no-BS thumper has been on the fanbase wish list since before Mike Weber told the boo-birds where to park their tank. Sabres fans have stared longingly at the dream of Erik Cernak, the concept of Will Borgen and even the delusion of Rasmus Ristolainen. Lyubushkin — signed to fill the roster slot mainly split last year between Robert Hagg and Casey Fitzgerald — might be their best chance in a decade of having those prayers answered. Rugged, responsible in his own zone, and a right-handed shot, Boosh appears to check all the boxes on the Sabres summer shopping list to a “T”. He’s expected to either slot in as big brother to Owen Power on the 2nd pair or provide some muscle alongside Bryson or Pilut on the 3rd pair. What do you expect from Ilya Lyubushkin?

I think he’s borderline to make the team because I don't know if he’s one of the 23 best players.

I’m still sticking with my original Larionov upside comparison, but Sweden has a long history of smart, complete centres like your Lindholms and Zetterbergs and going way back to pioneers like Patrick Sundstrom and Thomas Gradin. He's a bit under the radar due to the Sabres volume of prospects, but I have high hopes for this kid.

Yes. And when he and Peterka played together they were always on their off hands, at least from what I remember.

Who have we seen do this? Dahlin, Cozens, Thompson, Okposo, Fitz and (we think) Lyubushkin? I like the character of this bunch, but I think it's still a legitimate question.

It was a half-season mostly spent sitting on the bench as emergency injury fill-in. He hadn't made the team. We'll never know, but playing in the minors in his 2nd year had he stayed in St. Louis was likely, IMO.

I'm kinda expecting them to run 3 2nd lines this year. It just seems like the best way to properly incorporate Quinn, Krebs and Peterka into the lineup. Skinner Thompson Peterka Quinn Mitts Tuch Krebs Cozens Olofsson or something similar, maybe? I think Quinn and Peterka are advanced enough to play with and against good players. If enough young players take a step, our ability to push the pace over 4 lines could become a weapon.

For top offensive opportunities? Okposo, Krebs, Mitts, Cozens and Peterka, I’d say. At least one of those guys will be the 2C and another the 3C, but they all will be in the mix for PP time. As far as the lineup goes, assuming health, I think he’s got to beat 3 of Peterka, Hinostroza, Krebs, Sheahan and Bjork to be in the starting 12.

Trying to put together a depth chart is impossible, let only predicting lines. The ability of players to play multiple positions really complicates things. I’ve got the pecking order something like this starting camp, based on the way the year finished. But I don’t expect it to shake out this way on the ice: Skinner Thompson Tuch Olofsson Mittelstadt/Cozens Okposo Asplund Girgensons Hinostroza Quinn Krebs Peterka Sheahan Bjork There is a lot of fluidity there, both up and down and between positions.

Quinn slots in at #5 on the Athletic’s list of preseason Calder favourites. https://theathletic.com/3546726/2022/09/08/nhl-calder-trophy-candidates-rankings/ Scott Wheeler says it’s a given he makes the team, what will make or break him in the Calder race is whether or not he can claim the last top 6 wing slot, after Tuch, Skinner and Olofsson.

Power ranked number one on the Athletic’s list of Calder candidates. https://theathletic.com/3546726/2022/09/08/nhl-calder-trophy-candidates-rankings/ Scott Wheeler says no other rookie can count on the minutes Power will get after averaging 22 in his debut and playing well. “The Sabres outscored the opposition 9-8, out-chanced them 75-57, and outshot them 87-63 with Power on the ice at five-on-five, and he played to a team-high expected goals for percentage of 56.”

Generally speaking, which are you more comfortable with: Your team giving 7x7 or 8x8 to their own guy in their early 20s who’s hit 60 points once? Or your team giving a similar contract to another team’s guy in their late 20s who’s done it 4 times? I think teams have run the math.

Stutzle has 87 points in his past 132 games. Thompson 82 in his past 116. People have no problem imagining someone who jumped from 29 points to 58 points when they were 20 years old making another jump to 80. When it happens at 24, different story. “Big guys take longer” is a hockey cliche no one seems ready to buy into in this case.

To lesser extent Davies and Priskie as well. Those 3, Pilut and Fitzpatrick are all 24-26 and proven at the AHL level. They’re all be coming hard for Bryon’s #6 slot and it will be interesting to see how it shakes out.

Fun piece from the Athletic where they collected the anonymous thoughts of the prospects at the recent NHL rookie showcase. https://theathletic.com/3573015/2022/09/07/nhlpa-rookie-showcase-survey/ 6 of the 13 prospects polled picked Power (who was there along with Quinn) for the Calder. McTavish and Beniers each got 2 votes.

Well-said. The Buffalo Sabres will continue to have their decisions questioned until they have demonstrated those decisions are helping them win hockey games.

JT Miller fits the in-and-out and S% spike, but once his shooting percentage jumped, it stayed up. https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/m/millejt01.html

To me the biggest disconnect in the Thompson debate is that the pessimists look at him as one great season after 4 ***** ones and see an unlikely spike. The reality is more like 100 ***** games and 80 great ones sandwiched around a season and a half where he barely played. I would hope Sam Ventura and his crew have done a deeper dive into the numbers than the context-free skimming we've seen from the likes of Willis and Yost.

Zach Werenski and Charlie McAvoy got $9.5 in exactly the same situation (RFA, arb rights, 1 year from UFA). They are literally the only recent direct comparables I could find; everyone else went term on the second contract, rather than bridge. You gotta believe that 2 years later $9.5 will be his floor, unless he reverts to a Ralph-level performance. I think $10 is going to be a safe bet.

It wasn’t that long ago Casey Fitzgerald was having trouble fitting in to the 6-man rotation for Rochester. But his play during the season’s first half for the Amerks earned him a call-up and a serious look-see from the Sabres to close the year out. Don Granato didn’t hesitate to throw him to the wolves, although his TOI dropped from a little over 19 minutes in February, to 15:11 in April. His +/- was ugly considering the fact he only played 36 games. His Corsi was better, comparable to Jokiharju and Samuelsson at 48%. He finished 2nd on the team in hits/60 and 5th in blocked shots/60. https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=170288 Fitzgerald — who signed with the Sabres after 4 full college seasons despite being eligible for free agency — made an impression on his Rochester coaches, who described him as a self-made, all-situations, 1st-pairing player at that level. He also made an impression on fans in Buffalo with his willingness to play physical, step up for his teammates and generally attack the game. It remains to be seen whether he has enough size and skill to supplement that effort and turn himself into a full-time NHLer. If he doesn’t, he can no longer be sent down without being exposed on waivers. What do you expect from Casey Fitzgerald?

If this season (for Dahlin and the Sabres) happens the way we hope, this may make the negotiations easier than they could be. That’s because it may influence Ras to set the bar in a Hedman fashion, rather than a Tkachuk fashion. Because he absolutely has the hammer if he chooses to exercise it.

Last Sabre who wasnt a top 10 pick to make the team the same year he was drafted — at least as far as I can tell — was Dave Andreychuk in 1982. Looks like Eichel, Ristolainen and Dahlin are the only players to do it since Pierre Turgeon

I think we all agree the team needs to identify which of the young guys are core and lock them up to long-term value deals. The debate is this player at that contract. Because every time Adams tries to lock up a guy long-term at value, we will be repeating this conversation. In order to get a value deal, you have to inherently take risks. Proven guys are going to get market value or they won’t sign.

After the initial disappointment of no Portillo, Levi or Johnson, Rochester sure ratcheted up the interest level with Kisakov, Rosen and Kulich. (And I still think we will see Johnson and Levi sign and play this season.)

When David Pastrnak signed his last deal (6x6.7}, he had just jumped from a career high of 26 points to 70. The Bruins made him the league’s 49th highest-paid player. Five years later, he’s the NHL’s 89th highest-paid player, even with 2 years of flat cap dragging down salaries. Right now, Tage (7x7.1) will be the 75th-highest paid player when his contract kicks in. $7 million is not what it used to be and it’s going to be a lot less by the time his contract is over.