dudacek

To me, this is what makes this team so fascinating this year: besides Girgensons, we've got no one who counts as a "we know what we have" Half-empty: Skinner: scored only 21 goals in the 2 seasons prior to last year combined Tuch: has topped 18 goals and 37 points just once in his career Thompson: just 35 points in 145 NHL games prior to last year Olofsson: has never topped 20 goals or 49 points Okposo: averaged just 8 goals and 12 assists over the 3 seasons prior to last year Cozens: 13 goals is his career high Mittelstadt: career highs of 12 goals and 25 points came 4 years ago Asplund: career high for goals is just 8 Krebs: career high for goals is just 7 Peterka: has played only 2 NHL games Quinn: has played only 2 NHL games Half-full: Skinner: 5-time 30-goal scorer, had 33 last year Tuch: produced like a 25-goal, 65-point 1st-liner during time with Sabres Thompson: finished 8th in goals among centres in the entire NHL last year Olofsson: 29 goals and 56 points are his career averages per 82 games Okposo: 21 goals and 41 points ranked him as a borderline NHL 1st-line winger last year Cozens: only 21, former top 10 pick with world-class 1st-line junior production Mittelstadt: 41 points over his past 81 games despite playing through an aggravated hernia and Ralph Krueger Asplund: Selke votes while putting up 27 points in first full NHL season Krebs: a point per game, including playoffs as a first-year AHLer Peterka: a point per game, including playoffs as a first-year AHLer Quinn: the most productive season by a U21 AHLer in a generation

Doesn't seem like a kid who has trouble focusing or getting excited about hockey, but that is one crazy slog — it includes 2 weeks in China! I can see how a total focus on being a Sabre this year would be beneficial.

I get the common belief the wheels are going to fall off the Bruins eventually as Bergeron and Marchand age out. But while they're still contributing I find it very hard to see a team with a top 4 of McAvoy/Lindholm/Grelczyk/Carlo and a duo of Ullmark/Swayman in net missing the playoffs.

This is the perception of an NHL fan who pays as much attention to the Sabres as we do the Sharks or the Bluejackets: A perennial loser: they've got dysfunctional ownership and they're barely spending to the cap floor They are a disaster in goal: an ancient Craig Anderson and who else? Some journeyman backups? Two first overall picks on D. Those guys should be good, but they're young and they've got nobody else back there. Up front, you can't rely on Skinner and that Tage guy was probably a fluke. Oh, I like Tuch. They were bottom 10 last year and they didn't really add anybody. They've got some good kids coming, but they're a few years away. It'll stay that way until wins change it.

With that contract, it makes a heck of a lot more sense to trade him at the 2023 deadline (if we're out of the race) or draft (to fix a roster weakness), at least from an asset management perspective. At the 2024 deadline, we don't expect the team to be in sell-off mode and he will likely end up walking that summer for nothing.

Maybe be have, but not over a full season. His per/82 over his career puts him at 29 goals and 56 points. He's only played 188 NHL games. I think he's got 30/60 over a full season before he starts to wind down.

Olofsson’s season could best be described as a donut: lots of high-calorie deliciousness wrapped around a whole lot of nothing. To put it in the form of numbers: 3 goals and 14 points in 36 mid-season games (including a 30-game goalless drought) while recovering from an injury that robbed him of his signature shot; 17 goals and 35 points in the 36 games to start and finish the season. Over the course of the year, Victor did some work to erase the perception he was strictly a PP specialist: both his ES goal/60 totals and his primary assist/60 totals doubled what he put up the previous season. His raw ES point total of 36 was good for 3rd overall on the Sabres. https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=142605 A lot was said about the significance of the Sabres committing 7 years and $50 million to Tage Thompson and the statement the team made with that move. Less was made about the statement made by the 2-year, $4.7 million deal given Olofsson, a deal that walks him quickly to free agency and could put him on the trade block as soon as this deadline. He’s almost universally pencilled in as the Sabres #3 winger, but finished just 7th in ice time among the team’s forwards last year. It’s not hard to read into the big picture that Quinn and Peterka, each of whom play more of the up-tempo style preached by the team, are being groomed for his role. It will be interesting to see how his season plays out and what happens in the aftermath. What do you expect from Victor Olofsson? (Last year’s takes here):

How much was Comrie a target fed by data from our analytics team? I see he and Lyubushkin as Ventura's first test cases.

Definitely. Was just referring to the poll in last year's thread.

Maybe meaningless, but maybe also a good sign of what could be their Buffalo number in the (not-too-distant?) future: Rousek 13 Kulich 27 Kisakov 52 (junior number) Rosen 63 Savoie 93 (junior number)

I would say the preseason games are not meaningless for those 3 players. Meaning, they need to test themselves against NHL-level players, but not junior level players.

I think the difference is that the Sabres seem to think playing in this tournament will not help prepare them for the coming NHL season any more than playing Cozens or Krebs would: the tournament offers some risk, no reward.

Surprised to see Nadeau's name. Is he on the roster the same way Savoie was on the development camp roster, meaning there but not playing? Excited to get our first look at Savoie and Kisakov.

You want to see what happened to Jeff Skinner, go back and watch the tape of all Tage Thompson’s goals last year. I’d say at least a half-dozen of them were set up by Reinhart-esque “how did he see that?” Skinner passes. It’s something I have never seen Skinner do over his 3 previous seasons in Buffalo. Its the idea that Jeff has realized he can have value beyond his goals that makes me think he could break his maddening pattern of year-to-year inconsistency. I’ve never been a Skinner fan. I was a fan last year because it was the first time I ever felt he was as interested in the success of the other 5 guys on the ice as much as his own. Donnie did a ton of good things last year, but none were better than reviving Skinner.

Yep, really looks like Sheahan is slotted into the Jankowski role. Wonder if there is interest in Bjork somewhere in the league and he gets picked up on waivers. But I doubt it given his contract and cap space being the way it is.

Disappointing. If there is any doubt these guys (meaning Quinn and Peterka) aren't going to be Sabres this year, this should erase it. 20-year-olds who have played 2 NHL games apiece not playing a prospects game. That said, it's Savoie and Kulich I am most looking forward to watching.

“I think you gotta let Skinner be Skinner. He's at his best when he is flying down the ice with the puck on his stick, circling around the net looking for a shot or a swat, and getting on the other teams nerves. So I'm looking to draw up plays that get him the first pass out of the d-zone, and put him on a line with a playmaker and someone with speed and finish that he can look to pass to on the rush.“ @shaaaught!, Sabrespace Not clear whether @SHAAAUGHT!!! is actually Don Granato, but what is clear is this is what Granato basically did with his $9 million 7-goal scorer last year, and it resulted in a return to form from Skinner's dismal performances in the previous two seasons under Ralph Krueger. Skinner doubled his shooting percentage for the previous season’s career low, but his 12.6 wasn’t too far off his career 10.9 average. More significantly, his shots taken also doubled, back in line with his totals in the 5 years previous to Krueger. His ES possession numbers rebounded to 3rd among team regulars. And he resumed his accustomed post in the top 20 of NHL even-strength goal scorers. It wasn’t all smooth — Skinner had just 3 points in October and only 2 in December — but his consistency improved along with the team’s post-Christmas and his 63 points matched his career high. https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=116085 Jeff Skinner has never followed up a 30-goal season with more than 24. He’s never followed up 60+ points with more than 49. He has also never played back-to-back seasons with a centre he complemented as well as Tage Thompson or with a coach who has appeared to trust him as much as Granato. He enters the season firmly ensconced on the Sabres top line, but with a track record of inconsistencies and multiple members of the new core nipping at his heels. What do you expect from Jeff Skinner? (Last year’s takes here, congrats to @pi2000 and @Sabres Fan in NS as the only Spacers to correctly predict Skinner’s return to form):

Keeping Lyubushkin was never something the Leafs could afford. He got a $2.5 million deal. They replaced him with Mark Giordano for $800,000, are already over the cap by $1.5 million and still haven’t signed Rasmus Sandin.

AHL Tage Thompson (age 20) 8/10/18 in 30 games AHL Casey Mittelstadt (age 21) 9/16/25 in 36 games AHL Peyton Krebs (age 20) 5/15/20 in 20 games AHL JJ Peterka (age 19) 28/40/68 in 70 games AHL Jack Quinn (age 20) 26/35/61 in 45 games I know some people are a little gun shy on JJ and Jack, but they really are well ahead of Tage and Casey at the same age.

I don’t have a ton of expectation for Lyubushkin because, like a lot of you, I haven’t followed him much. But I have a ton of curiosity. He seems like a player tailor-made for what our defence corps needed heading into the off-season. Both he and Comrie not only entirely fit the culture Adams is shaping, but they also seem to be products of an analytics-driven moneyball approach where the staff identified potentially undervalued assets that filled a need and aggressively went after them. Fair or not, Lyubushkin’s performance is going to influence my perception of Ventura as much as anything.

So this is less than a week away. Any word on the roster? I'm going to guess eligibility will be non-NHL ELCs, unsigned picks and a handful of free agents Some possibilities: Quinn Krebs Peterka Rosen Savoie Kisakov Rousek Kulich Weissbach Pekar Biro Cedarqvist Bloom Kozak Power Laaksonen Samuelsson Komorov Lindgren Suchanek (unsigned Czech keeper expected to be coming) Nadeau is expected to be out due to surgery. Richard and Sardarian are USHL players I expect will be off to college and unavailable. Others in Europe I will be surprised if Samuelsson and Krebs are there. Power, Quinn, Peterka though, I'm kinda expecting

Burakovsky and Bjorkstrand gotta help that Seattle offence and Beniers is going to get some big ice time. Going to be an interesting battle between those two

Ilya Lyubushkin entered last season off most people’s radar as a late-starting Russian import who had played all of his 134 NHL games in the outpost of Arizona. That changed when a mid-season trade moved him to the white-hot spotlight of Toronto in order to add some hard-to-play-against to a flabby Leafs blueline. Despite being an absolute non-factor offensively, Lyubushkin registered some impressive defensive analytics, adding up to a 51% overall Corsi rating despite 55% D-zone starts. He gained a reputation as a neutralizer while punishing opponents with the 26th-ranked hits/60 rate in the entire league. https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=171177 A heart-and-soul, reliable, no-BS thumper has been on the fanbase wish list since before Mike Weber told the boo-birds where to park their tank. Sabres fans have stared longingly at the dream of Erik Cernak, the concept of Will Borgen and even the delusion of Rasmus Ristolainen. Lyubushkin — signed to fill the roster slot mainly split last year between Robert Hagg and Casey Fitzgerald — might be their best chance in a decade of having those prayers answered. Rugged, responsible in his own zone, and a right-handed shot, Boosh appears to check all the boxes on the Sabres summer shopping list to a “T”. He’s expected to either slot in as big brother to Owen Power on the 2nd pair or provide some muscle alongside Bryson or Pilut on the 3rd pair. What do you expect from Ilya Lyubushkin?

I think he’s borderline to make the team because I don't know if he’s one of the 23 best players.

I’m still sticking with my original Larionov upside comparison, but Sweden has a long history of smart, complete centres like your Lindholms and Zetterbergs and going way back to pioneers like Patrick Sundstrom and Thomas Gradin. He's a bit under the radar due to the Sabres volume of prospects, but I have high hopes for this kid.