dudacek

The part about Dawson Mercer filling our need for a 2nd-line centre to replace Sam Reinhart was fantastic, but the line I liked best was the one about Cole Perfetti's blazing speed.

I am so sorry.

A 2-way contract offer may have sent Pilut packing to the KHL after the 2020 season, but it didn't prevent him from coming back two years later. Larry spent a good portion of last season watching his production plummet while trying to get out of his Russian contract, but he bounced back nicely with 8 points in 15 playoff games for the delightfully named Chelyabinsk Traktor. https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=170049 Once that contract hurdle was cleared, the Sabres immediately welcomed him back on a one-year deal that will walk him to unrestricted free agency next summer. Now 26, Pilut has proven to be an topnotch point producer from the blueline when playing outside the NHL. Prior last season, he put up a 4-year run of 115 points in 186 games combined in the SHL, the AHL and the KHL. He also picked up a vocal collection of fans thanks to some impressive analytics while in North America. What do you expect from Lawrence Pilut this year?

I’d tweak that to the above. It’s an open question as to where guys like Quinn (and Peterka, Savoie, Östlund, Kulich, Cozens, Krebs, even Mitts, Tuch and Thompson) will eventually land. There’s no cant-miss Stamkos or Kane type sure-thing there, but maybe there’s a Drury and a Briere, or maybe even a Kucherov grower or a Toews leader? To me, that’s what’s going to make this team worth watching.

But that’s by design, same as with the leadership debate. All these guys are being given an opportunity to create their own space, to organically make himself “core.” For a team that was dramatically bad one year ago, I don’t see that as bad at all.

Hedman being dramatically underpaid today isn’t particularly relevant to contracts being signed next summer, seven years later. Separately, IMO, Dahlin passed Sergachev last year. To your point, it will be interesting to see who the Sabres decide to lock in with core piece contracts and when. I agree that Adams MO so far has been to push the decision back as far as possible. He did it with Reinhart and Dahlin earlier and with Olofsson and apparently Tage as well this summer.

No we don’t, but the comparables are relevant and the window where a call is needed to be made is a maximum of just 2 years away. The conversation started with a post about a $4 million deal, which would be on the extreme low end of the scale. I found 2 defencemen picked in top 10 in the past decade of drafts who signed for less than $4.8 million on their 2nd contact: Juolevi and Boqvist. Power is better than both of those guys already.

I didn't get a lot of traction when I posted about it earlier, but the Sabres have set themselves up for a ton of internal competition, starting this year and continuing for a while. Skinner Tuch and Thompson have to fight off Mitts and Olofsson who are fighting off Cozens and Krebs who are fighting off Quinn and Peterka who will be fighting off Rosen Kulich, Savoie and Östlund. Then you have Girgs, Okposo, Asplund and Hinostroza sprinkled in to the middle and bottom six mix with Sheahan and Bjork around to keep them honest. And then you have a *****-ton of secondary prospects (Bloom, Nadeau, Kisakov, Poltapov, Rousek, Neuchev, etc...) pushing from behind. IMO, there is not a roster spot that is "safe" up front. You aren't getting it done? Somebody is there who wants your job. You are getting it done? There are better jobs available. It should be a fantastic crucible for development.

I had not seen that and think that's a bad move. His tool kit screams centre to me. Do you know if it was a short-term look during their exhibition, or something they plan to run with? Because it will be terrible for his development, in my opinion.

I agree, at least for this year, but Webster has a point about the coming logjam. It will be interesting to see who is a centre, who is a winger and who is traded in 3 or 4 years. 3 top lines, 7 candidates: Thompson, Mittelstadt, Cozens, Krebs, Savoie, Östlund, Kulich. Östlund is the only one I can't really see sliding to the wing.

I'd be happy if the Sabres end up with 5 20 goal scorers. They have 2 players who have ever scored 30.

Plus there is the Russian kid, Komarov, that we picked in the 5th round this year and who is playing in the Q.

In terms of guys under contract, it's Fitzgerald (25), Davies (25), Priske (26) and Clague (24) who are guys on the cusp. They have each played 3 minor pro seasons and between 4 and 58 NHL games. Each is on a 2-way NHL contract. Pilut has 2 years pro in North America, 46 NHL games and is 26 and is also on a 2-way. It's actually quite the group of tweeners, but I doubt they will be eligible

Brian Duff said on the radio yesterday as an aside that he’s been told the door for Ruotsalainen is still open. Then he moved on and never revisited. Not sure if he meant there’s still an out for the Swiss contract, or if he was talking about the future, like Pilut, but I took it as the former. It was odd.

I’m not going to count on Power, Samuelsson and Krebs to be there because they finished the year with Buffalo, but they were at development camp, so you never know. But Peterka and Quinn are still definitely prospects and should be there, so even without the three above it should be a very interesting forward lineup. All these guys are on their ELC contracts and should be available Quinn Savoie Peterka Weissbach Kulich Rousek Kisakov Biro Rosen Bloom Kozak Nadeau Pekar Cedarqvist Defence and goalie is another story. Laaksonen is the only guy that fits. Lindgren and Komarev might be available. We’ve heard the Czech WJC goalie will get a look, and they will have to add a few tryout guys.

Comparables as #1 pick are Ekblad (7 years, $7.5 million in 2016, 8.4 in today's $) and Dahlin (3 years, $6 million last summer. Long-term recent deals to 2nd-contract young 1st-pairing defencemen range from Quinn Hughes at $7.8 to Zach Werenski at $10. That includes Chabot, Heiskanen, Fox, Makar and McAvoy. Guys like Rasmus Anderson and Brandon Carlo were the ones getting $4.5 million. Power will be eligible for an extension next summer and requiring one the summer after that.

If the current build is going to work, you're going to need a handful of the kids to become more Drury/Briere than Roy/Stafford. For this team to be good, Dylan Cozens needs to be a 25-goal, 60-point guy who gets in the faces of opponents, makes big plays, rallies the building and creates momentum. For the Sabres to make the playoffs, it needs to happen this year. We've seen he's got the mental makeup to be that guy. We have yet to see the physical makeup. I roll back the tape and see how he played against his peers at 19 and say once he's playing against his peers again — it will be interesting to see how much he's bulked up this summer — the production will come. It's a leap of faith but with this kid I'm going to make it.

A guy who will slot into the lineup on the 1st or 2nd line at centre for most of the teams in the NHL.

Damn, I did not recall all that “bad training camp” or “send him down” from the start of last season.

I’d like to step back and take a closer look at that because I think it is crucial. I am 100 percent convinced Cozens, Dahlin and Devon Levi are the type of person you are describing. Pretty sure that’s the case for Tuch as well. I’m not sure Casey has it, or if he’s going to be enough of a factor for it to matter. Thompson sure showed that swagger last year. We’ll see where that goes. Olofsson won’t be that guy. Not certain yet on Krebs, Peterka, Quinn, Samuelsson, and Power. The signs are positive, even if the 2 D are more ice than fire. And where those 5 go is probably what floats or sinks the boat. Overall, I think they should have enough guys with the right character, although it needs to be tempered through experience. Right now, I honestly wonder more if there’s enough elite talent.

Maybe because the Sabres have made 7 more 1st rounders since picking Cozens 7th overall, it’s easy to forget it’s been just over a year and a half since he first put on a Buffalo sweater, that he’s played just 120 NHL games, and that he is only 21. It only seems like he’s been around forever. Cozens made a notable jump from his rookie season last year, tripling his goal and point totals, and increasing his average time on ice from 14:21 to 15:54 and demanding all the responsibility Don Granato would give him. He was also a positive ES possession player and the best Sabre forward when it comes to creating zone entry chances off the rush. However, he did not play much with finishers, turned the puck over too often in 1-on-1 situations and struggled to finish for himself. He ranked 6th on the team in shots, but only 17th in shooting percentage and scored just twice in his final 37 games. https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=197770 It’s not remarkable, but it is worth noting that Cozens’ 21/22 production ranks in the top 100 U21 seasons of the past decade, in the same range of players like Reinhart, Suzuki, Thomas, Point, Horvat, Rantanen and Lindholm. A favourite Sabrespace comparable for Cozens has been Ryan Kesler, as a big, fast 2-way pace-pushing centre. Kesler didn’t “arrive” until a 59-point season when he was 24. At 23, he put up a 37-point year, very similar to Cozens’ totals last year. What do you expect from Dylan Cozens this year? (Last year’s takes here):

The most provocative thing I saw in there was that the 33-overall pick in last year’s draft is only 29th best prospect on the Sabres. Either you’re already declaring Poltapov is one of the biggest whiffs since Artem Kryukov, or you’re saying the Sabres might have two-dozen legitimate NHLers in the pipeline. I doubt either is too likely, but enjoy the exercise. 🤷 (And that made me look up Kryukov. My god, how did they ever invest a #15 overall pick in a centre who never topped 8 goals in any season, anywhere, ever?) https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=59430

You’ve had a few posts in this direction and I agree it’s something to pay attention to. I probably spend too much time looking at history, but young teams fitting the profile of the Sabres seem to frequently “come out of nowhere” and just as frequently hit a pothole the following season.

I think there should be an element of “how good is he compared to his peers” in prospect ranking. Josh Bloom was a far better D+1 OHL player than Matej Pekar was a D+4 AHL player and therefor should be higher on the Sabres list. But everyone has their own criteria and they’re both a long way from being Sabres, so 🤷. I don’t find it too provocative, or the rationale behind it too thought-provoking.

Not debating your main point or conclusion, I just had to point out that the bold isn’t the general truism you’re pitching it as. Last year’s rookie of the year contenders were Raymond, Zegras Seider and Bunting. Zegras was a top 10 pick in his D3 season coming off a fantastic year at a lower level, just like Quinn. Raymond was a highly skilled offensive forward who played well against men at a lower level who no one doubted could play in the NHL, they just weren’t sure if he was ready yet, kinda like Peterka. Seider had looked great on an international stage and was generally hyped as possibly the best defenceman outside the NHL, pretty much Power. It often doesn’t happen, but it does happen, multiple times, every year.