dudacek

Generally speaking, which are you more comfortable with: Your team giving 7x7 or 8x8 to their own guy in their early 20s who’s hit 60 points once? Or your team giving a similar contract to another team’s guy in their late 20s who’s done it 4 times? I think teams have run the math.

Stutzle has 87 points in his past 132 games. Thompson 82 in his past 116. People have no problem imagining someone who jumped from 29 points to 58 points when they were 20 years old making another jump to 80. When it happens at 24, different story. “Big guys take longer” is a hockey cliche no one seems ready to buy into in this case.

To lesser extent Davies and Priskie as well. Those 3, Pilut and Fitzpatrick are all 24-26 and proven at the AHL level. They’re all be coming hard for Bryon’s #6 slot and it will be interesting to see how it shakes out.

Fun piece from the Athletic where they collected the anonymous thoughts of the prospects at the recent NHL rookie showcase. https://theathletic.com/3573015/2022/09/07/nhlpa-rookie-showcase-survey/ 6 of the 13 prospects polled picked Power (who was there along with Quinn) for the Calder. McTavish and Beniers each got 2 votes.

Well-said. The Buffalo Sabres will continue to have their decisions questioned until they have demonstrated those decisions are helping them win hockey games.

JT Miller fits the in-and-out and S% spike, but once his shooting percentage jumped, it stayed up. https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/m/millejt01.html

To me the biggest disconnect in the Thompson debate is that the pessimists look at him as one great season after 4 ***** ones and see an unlikely spike. The reality is more like 100 ***** games and 80 great ones sandwiched around a season and a half where he barely played. I would hope Sam Ventura and his crew have done a deeper dive into the numbers than the context-free skimming we've seen from the likes of Willis and Yost.

Zach Werenski and Charlie McAvoy got $9.5 in exactly the same situation (RFA, arb rights, 1 year from UFA). They are literally the only recent direct comparables I could find; everyone else went term on the second contract, rather than bridge. You gotta believe that 2 years later $9.5 will be his floor, unless he reverts to a Ralph-level performance. I think $10 is going to be a safe bet.

It wasn’t that long ago Casey Fitzgerald was having trouble fitting in to the 6-man rotation for Rochester. But his play during the season’s first half for the Amerks earned him a call-up and a serious look-see from the Sabres to close the year out. Don Granato didn’t hesitate to throw him to the wolves, although his TOI dropped from a little over 19 minutes in February, to 15:11 in April. His +/- was ugly considering the fact he only played 36 games. His Corsi was better, comparable to Jokiharju and Samuelsson at 48%. He finished 2nd on the team in hits/60 and 5th in blocked shots/60. https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=170288 Fitzgerald — who signed with the Sabres after 4 full college seasons despite being eligible for free agency — made an impression on his Rochester coaches, who described him as a self-made, all-situations, 1st-pairing player at that level. He also made an impression on fans in Buffalo with his willingness to play physical, step up for his teammates and generally attack the game. It remains to be seen whether he has enough size and skill to supplement that effort and turn himself into a full-time NHLer. If he doesn’t, he can no longer be sent down without being exposed on waivers. What do you expect from Casey Fitzgerald?

If this season (for Dahlin and the Sabres) happens the way we hope, this may make the negotiations easier than they could be. That’s because it may influence Ras to set the bar in a Hedman fashion, rather than a Tkachuk fashion. Because he absolutely has the hammer if he chooses to exercise it.

Last Sabre who wasnt a top 10 pick to make the team the same year he was drafted — at least as far as I can tell — was Dave Andreychuk in 1982. Looks like Eichel, Ristolainen and Dahlin are the only players to do it since Pierre Turgeon

I think we all agree the team needs to identify which of the young guys are core and lock them up to long-term value deals. The debate is this player at that contract. Because every time Adams tries to lock up a guy long-term at value, we will be repeating this conversation. In order to get a value deal, you have to inherently take risks. Proven guys are going to get market value or they won’t sign.

After the initial disappointment of no Portillo, Levi or Johnson, Rochester sure ratcheted up the interest level with Kisakov, Rosen and Kulich. (And I still think we will see Johnson and Levi sign and play this season.)

When David Pastrnak signed his last deal (6x6.7}, he had just jumped from a career high of 26 points to 70. The Bruins made him the league’s 49th highest-paid player. Five years later, he’s the NHL’s 89th highest-paid player, even with 2 years of flat cap dragging down salaries. Right now, Tage (7x7.1) will be the 75th-highest paid player when his contract kicks in. $7 million is not what it used to be and it’s going to be a lot less by the time his contract is over.

He is the league’s 21st-highest paid centre. He finished 31st in points and 48th in goals, 9 points behind the 21st-highest scorer. So, already in the ballpark in terms of value, and, if he keeps producing the way he has the value is only going to improve over the next 8 years. Canadiens are happy.

Oh yeah, generally agree. could have had him from 22-28 for what $8ish? (Heiskanen Chabot Hughes) The plus is we should get Rasmus until 31 now, but those 25-29 years are going to cost more than they would have. Probably $10 given the leverage he’s going to have.

Thompson, and Adams comments in the wake of it, leads me to believe a Dahlin extension will be a priority for him next summer. Dahlin’s conduct leads me to believe it will get done, but if he has the season most of us suspect it won’t be cheap.

I’d say it’s actually based on the overall body of work since Adams got here, including things like off-ice habits and attitude, leadership, character, development, what he’s shown in practice, a deep dive into his analytics and the way his game has trended. It hasn’t been one season of fringe play, followed by one season of 68 points, it’s been 120 games of steady improvement. Otherwise, except for the part about him being overpaid if he doesn’t continue to produce an average of 38 goals and 68 points a season (as spelled out upthread, 25 and 60 are more realistic) over the term of the contract, what you're saying is entirely true. From what Adams has seen of Thompson, he bet the over. We all hope he was right.

I’ll say it again: 1st season 41 NHL games (emergency NHL recall, limited role): .22 points per game 2nd season 65 (NHL spare part, should have been in Rochester): .18 points per game 3rd season 38 (taxi squad under Ralph, regular under Donnie): .37 points per game 4th season 1st half 38 (emerging top 6 usage): .76 points per game 4th season 2nd half 40 (1st line centre): 1.0 points per game The trend line is pretty clear

Pilut battles Fitzgerald for the #7 slot. Not sure who gets it, or if the Sabres keep 8 D

Injuries (his and others) mean it will be the rare night Vinnie is a healthy scratch. He’ll contribute and make the Krebs and the Quinns better players.

Fully on board with optimists here. Dahlin will be a legit 1D for a full season and as the year goes on the league will start to realize it.

Comrie and UPL better be ready. If we get 10 good starts out of Andy, I will be surprised.

Casey will have a career year and establish himself as an NHL player. He will also establish himself as a Holzinger/Plante level NHLer and not a part of the future core. He’ll be gone as soon as Savoie is ready. Pulling for him, but I think he’s the final victim of the dark years.

Based on last year (15 goals, 59 points), Matt Barzal was paid pretty much at exactly market value for points and overpaid for goals. He was 29th among centres in salary, 34th in points and 68th in goals. Not sure about the rest because none of them are centres and I haven’t crunched the numbers for wingers. But given Sam was 26th in the entire league in points and Connor had 47 goals, based on production, I’d say it’s pretty safe to say those two were underpaid.