dudacek

Jeff Marek had an interesting observation on our goalies. Starts since Comrie went down UPL: @was, @Bos, @Veg @Col, @Pit, @tor, Det, SJ, Cbs, Col, TB, Stl Anderson: @Det, @ari @Ott, @Mon, LA, Pit, NJ Donnie has deployed Upie like a full-fledged #1: a majority of the games and virtually all the tough ones.

This raises an interesting question: Who would you rather have on your 3rd line? A guy who plays like a 2nd liner half the time and is replacement level the other half? (not arguing Casey is this guy) Or a guy who is consistently neutral?

Is there anyone around here doing that? I don’t think even @GASabresIUFAN sees top 6 potential there now. The debates are 2: Is/can this guy be a useful NHL player? Do I want this guy on my team?

A few have said it, but I can’t disagree with you more on this. He had 4 points last night. Not one of them was a freebie. Not one of them happens if an average player was on the ice in his place. He did that, including the winning goal, in Washington, against an engaged Alex Ovechkin. He’s had 8 games of 3 or more points, including 3 hat-tricks and 2 6-point games. His goals are almost never tap-ins or lucky bounces. He has taken over more games this year than any player outside McDavid.

I think our points are more in line than you may realize. I was partly talking about fan expectations in my post, but moreso I was talking about player expectations. Casey is undergoing a process where he first realized he wasn’t going to be an NHL player training like he did in juniors, then realizing he wasn’t going to be a star playing like he did in juniors. As @Taro T has done a good job explaining, he has adjusted his approach. He just has more to learn and more adjustments to make. He’s only played 231 NHL games. The next step - the one that is underway this year - is realizing that he isn’t going to be a star, period, and figuring out how he is just going to be a useful player. I brought Jost into the equation because he comes from a similar place as Casey, and is a year ahead of him on that curve. I can guarantee Avs fans were making similar posts to yours about Jost two years ago.

Player 1 is 24, was a top 10 pick and makes $2.5 million He’s scored 9 points and been a -4 in the past 17 games mostly on the 3rd line. Player 2 is 24, was a top 10 pick and makes $2.0 million He’s scored 7 points and been a +/-0 in the past 17 games mostly on the 3rd line. We like Tyson Jost because he seems to have realized that while he’s not going to be the top 6 player he had hoped to become, he is good enough to play in the NHL and can contribute in a specific role. We don’t like Casey Mittelstadt because we are judging him in the context of being the top 6 player he had hoped to become. He is good enough to be an NHL player, but is still figuring out his role. Expectations are certainly at play here and need to be readjusted.

The stuff above about Granato’s belief in Casey is bang on, IMO. He believes in his talent and his work ethic and is determined that if he perseveres the payoff will come. He’s using the same template that paid off for Cozens and Thompson and Tuch and Dahlin. To me, the difference is Casey just isn’t as good at hockey as the other 4.

@Taro T this needs to be in here:

He had a pretty good game last night. He got flak on the Milano goal, but that was more about Mule making a bad pinch and Dahlin not rotating out behind him quickly enough. He and Jost had some of that Krebs line puckhound buzz going on on the forecheck. Consistency is the main issue, so a game or two isn't going to sway many takes.

This isn't a direct answer, but over the first three months of this season, he has been the NHL's 2nd-best player after McDavid. He is having a better season this year than Mathews did last year when he won the Hart.

@nfreeman was wondering the last time a Sabre has ever been on a hot streak like this. I'm wondering if it's ever happened? Tage has 29 goals in has last 29 games. You'd think Mogilny in '93 must have done something like this. Maybe Gare or Martin did in the '70s? Remember a Sabre has scored 40 only 25 times in a full season. Only 4 guys have ever scored 45.

At the urging of @SDS Tage has 46 games left He needs to score just 2 goals to tie Danny Briere's best Sabre season. To score 6 to tie Eichel's best 7 and Drury's 11 Andreychuk 13 Vanek 14 Perreault 22 Martin 26 Gare He's scoring 5 goals every six games this year over a sample size of nearly half a season. Bear in mind, that sample size includes his worst cold streak in a year (1 goal in 7 games in October) He's scoring 2 goals every three games over the past 82. Never mind how he's scoring the goals: 4 highlight-reel points to win in overtime, one-upping Ovie in his own barn, no less? Barring catastrophe he's having an all-time Sabre season. It's a privilege to watch.

Four of these 2022/23 stat lines belong to Sidney Crosby, Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel and Mitch Marner. 1.17 points/game +14 1.16 points/game -2 1.16 points/game +19 1.13 points/game 0 1.07 points/game +17 Which one of them belongs to Alex Tuch? Only 2 Sabre RWs have ever topped 90 points over a full season. Tuch is within striking distance of 100 and Rene Robert’s status as having the second most productive season by a RW in Buffalo Sabres history.

Sabres on a 9/2/1 run over the past month. That’s the NHL’s 4th best record over that stretch, which includes road wins over 2 of the teams (Bos, Was) ahead of them. They are 11th in defence over that stretch, allowing 2.75 goals per game, and easily 1st in offence, scoring 4.42 goals per game, a full goal per game more than all but 6 other teams. Tage leads the NHL with 15 goals over the 12 games he’s played during that span, and is 2nd with 23 points. Tuch also in the NHL top 10 with 7 goals and 19 points in that stretch. Are you having any fun yet?

From what I’ve seen of Kulich, he’s never going to be a a face puncher, a distributor or a guy who carries the puck on his string. But his skill set lends itself to pretty much any other role, at centre or at wing, anywhere in the lineup. It will be very interesting to see what role he carves out for himself because he can go in a number of directions.

In the games i watch, there seems to be a decided de-emphasis on big bodies getting to the front of the net while players pound away from the outside looking for screens, rebounds and deflections. Goals seem to be more the result of movement creating holes that are then exploited by players darting into them. Goalie get beat by making them move laterally. It's never an either/or thing, but under current trends, successful defence seems more about pressuring the puck and anticipating passing lanes than clearing the crease and tying up your man.

Basically, for 30 minutes a game, you’d have: Dahlin/Mule Chychrun/Power dominating ES possession. Another 20 shifts a night will be special teams. And another 20 shifts a night will be one of the big 4 with Boosh or Joki, leaving 10 shifts a game where you ice Boosh and Joki in low-risk situations, where they should be more than capable. Basically, you’d run: Dahlin 24 Power 22 Chychrun 21 Samuelsson 21 Jokiharju 15 Lyubushkin 12 Or something similar as your base deployment. And each guy in the lineup would be more than capable of stepping into the shoes of the guy above him in the case of injury.

It’s interesting that the Sabres are being utilized in a way that absolutely reflects the huge current gap between their top 3 defenceman and their bottom 3. In December: Dahlin 26:24 Samuelsson 24:14 Power 23:41 Clague 15:55 (but under 13 when Power was in the lineup) lyubushkin 14:56 Bryson 12:58 Fitzpatrick 12:56 Pilut 12:18 Taking PPs into account, there are about 110 minutes available a night for defencemen. The big 3 are eating up 75 of them while the others share 35. And Donnie is now spinning that in such a way that we’re maybe looking at just 5-10 minutes a night where he’s icing Bryson/Lyubushkin or worse. However, that includes large stretches where someone on the big 3 is carrying a much lesser partner. Adding Jokiharju is going to make a huge difference in reducing the workload of the big three and the amount of sheltering that is occurring. Adding Jokiharju and someone as good or better than Jokiharju would tilt the ice significantly and might be the critical mass necessary to push this team over the top, more than any other change. An underrated factor in our offensive explosion this year is ability of our D (mostly Power and Dahlin) to jumpstart the rush capabilities of our forwards from the back end. That’s why Granato likes Jokiharju and (to a lesser extent) Bryson better than you do. That first pass is the bedrock upon which our system works. The ideal acquisition for this team is someone who is able to blunt rush attacks and turn the puck back up-ice quickly to feed our rushing forwards. He would also be stout physically and able to kill penalties and provide strong 2nd pair play, with the ability to move up to the 1st pair if needed. Off-ice it has always made sense for Adams to stay away from the big-name high-salary Horvat-type commitments and instead use his trade capital to target Tuch or Thompson circa 2021 types: in the sense that they are people still under team control, young enough to augment our core, and who might benefit from the chance of being cast into a new role. If the price is right, Jakob Chychrun makes a lot of sense on a lot of levels.

That’s because you continually dismiss both the value and the cost of development. The reason why is very clearly asset management under the cap and Horvat’s age relative to the age and importance of the rest of your core. Im not aware of any team paying their 3C $8 million and it strikes me as poor roster planning under the cap for a team that currently has no starting goalie, a lot of players on their ELCs who will be looking for raises, and appears to be building its future on the backs of 2 sure-to-be-expensive franchise defencemen. Would you rather invest $8 million over the next 8 years in Dylan Cozens as your 2C and keep 2 premium prospects and $6 million in cap space to invest elsewhere in the roster? Or invest $8 million over the next 8 years and 2 premium prospects in acquiring Bo Horvat as your 2C, sign Cozens to a $6 million short-term bridge deal, and deal with trading Cozens or others in 3 years to stay under the cap? Horvat certainly improves the team this year and next. But what is the opportunity cost? Is he the missing piece to a cup contender? Is he going to prevent you from adding/keeping the missing piece from a cup contender down the road? Personally, I think I’d lean in on Thompson/Cozens as my top 2 centres like the Bruins did with Bergeron/Krecji and avoid paying a big ticket for my 3C so I can use that money elsewhere. Under the cap, it’s a zero-sum game and you have to account for both long-term ramifications and opportunity cost.

Progress report as the season approaches its mid-point: Unlike last year at this time, where it seemed that virtually every prospect was exceeding expectations, this year’s group appears to range from being largely on track to mildly disappointing, without the huge breakthroughs we were seeing last year. It’s still an incredibly deep list with plenty of time and space to grow. Using my summer list as a base:

He signed a long-term deal last summer. Unless he’s traded, he’ll be a Senator until 2028.

I think the question remains UPL’s level of play. He keeps the net if he keeps playing like this, goes down if it drops off. “Worst” case scenario, you waive or trade Asplund or Hinostroza, but that only happens if UPL is playing as #1. Who wouldn’t trade Vinnie or Ras for a #1? As a team improves, the guys at the bottom of the roster fall away. The fact that those players now have value is simply evidence that we’re finally icing a competitive team.

It’s also worth noting that since March 1 - a sample size of between 62 and 70 games - the Sabres have the 8th-best points percentage in the east, just nosing out PIttsburgh and the Islanders for the final playoff spot.

Two cliches are frequently held up around here as facts that can’t both possibly be true: ”They are doing this when they are well out of the playoffs, let’s see what they do when the standings are still up for grabs and the games really matter.” ”They are doing this before the good teams buckle down and get serious, let’s see what they do down the stretch when the games really matter. But sample sizes certainly are relevant and a full calendar year is worth talking about. In 2022, the Sabres were: 40/36/8, good for 21st in the NHL Scored 281 goals, good for 16th Allowed 291 goals, good for 24th Connected 25.4% of the time on the PP, good for 4th Killed 74.4% of their penalties, good for 24th Finished 18th in shots for at 30.9 per game Finished 24th in shots against at 32.5 per game Finished 17th in Corsi, at exactly 50% Individually: Thompson scored 53 goals and 99 points, good for 6th and 18th in the NHL, respectively. Dahlin scored 17 goals and 71 points, good for 6th and 5th among NHL defencemen, respectively. Skinner scored 41 goals and 84 points, good for 8th and 11th among NHL left wingers, respectively. Tuch scored 29 goals and 76 points, good for 19th and 12th among NHL right wingers, respectively. Cozens scored 17 goals and 57 points Olofsson 28 and 48 Mittlestadt 12 and 37 Krebs 10 and 30 Some comparables: Jack Eichel in his best calendar year: 38 goals, 86 points Sam Reinhart at Cozens age: 15 goals, 38 points Thomas Vanek in 2006: 36 goals, 63 points Danny Briere in 2006; 26 goals 81 points (just 63 games)

Tremendous game by Tuch. I want to particularly highlight his efforts on the Thompson goal where he broke up a breakout pass at blueline then outhustled the much-better positioned defender to the loose puck to force the turnover. Led all NHL RWs in points per game in December with 17 points in 11 games and was +12 over that stretch. He has 76 points in 82 games as a Sabre.