dudacek

It’s interesting that the Sabres are being utilized in a way that absolutely reflects the huge current gap between their top 3 defenceman and their bottom 3. In December: Dahlin 26:24 Samuelsson 24:14 Power 23:41 Clague 15:55 (but under 13 when Power was in the lineup) lyubushkin 14:56 Bryson 12:58 Fitzpatrick 12:56 Pilut 12:18 Taking PPs into account, there are about 110 minutes available a night for defencemen. The big 3 are eating up 75 of them while the others share 35. And Donnie is now spinning that in such a way that we’re maybe looking at just 5-10 minutes a night where he’s icing Bryson/Lyubushkin or worse. However, that includes large stretches where someone on the big 3 is carrying a much lesser partner. Adding Jokiharju is going to make a huge difference in reducing the workload of the big three and the amount of sheltering that is occurring. Adding Jokiharju and someone as good or better than Jokiharju would tilt the ice significantly and might be the critical mass necessary to push this team over the top, more than any other change. An underrated factor in our offensive explosion this year is ability of our D (mostly Power and Dahlin) to jumpstart the rush capabilities of our forwards from the back end. That’s why Granato likes Jokiharju and (to a lesser extent) Bryson better than you do. That first pass is the bedrock upon which our system works. The ideal acquisition for this team is someone who is able to blunt rush attacks and turn the puck back up-ice quickly to feed our rushing forwards. He would also be stout physically and able to kill penalties and provide strong 2nd pair play, with the ability to move up to the 1st pair if needed. Off-ice it has always made sense for Adams to stay away from the big-name high-salary Horvat-type commitments and instead use his trade capital to target Tuch or Thompson circa 2021 types: in the sense that they are people still under team control, young enough to augment our core, and who might benefit from the chance of being cast into a new role. If the price is right, Jakob Chychrun makes a lot of sense on a lot of levels.

That’s because you continually dismiss both the value and the cost of development. The reason why is very clearly asset management under the cap and Horvat’s age relative to the age and importance of the rest of your core. Im not aware of any team paying their 3C $8 million and it strikes me as poor roster planning under the cap for a team that currently has no starting goalie, a lot of players on their ELCs who will be looking for raises, and appears to be building its future on the backs of 2 sure-to-be-expensive franchise defencemen. Would you rather invest $8 million over the next 8 years in Dylan Cozens as your 2C and keep 2 premium prospects and $6 million in cap space to invest elsewhere in the roster? Or invest $8 million over the next 8 years and 2 premium prospects in acquiring Bo Horvat as your 2C, sign Cozens to a $6 million short-term bridge deal, and deal with trading Cozens or others in 3 years to stay under the cap? Horvat certainly improves the team this year and next. But what is the opportunity cost? Is he the missing piece to a cup contender? Is he going to prevent you from adding/keeping the missing piece from a cup contender down the road? Personally, I think I’d lean in on Thompson/Cozens as my top 2 centres like the Bruins did with Bergeron/Krecji and avoid paying a big ticket for my 3C so I can use that money elsewhere. Under the cap, it’s a zero-sum game and you have to account for both long-term ramifications and opportunity cost.

Progress report as the season approaches its mid-point: Unlike last year at this time, where it seemed that virtually every prospect was exceeding expectations, this year’s group appears to range from being largely on track to mildly disappointing, without the huge breakthroughs we were seeing last year. It’s still an incredibly deep list with plenty of time and space to grow. Using my summer list as a base:

He signed a long-term deal last summer. Unless he’s traded, he’ll be a Senator until 2028.

I think the question remains UPL’s level of play. He keeps the net if he keeps playing like this, goes down if it drops off. “Worst” case scenario, you waive or trade Asplund or Hinostroza, but that only happens if UPL is playing as #1. Who wouldn’t trade Vinnie or Ras for a #1? As a team improves, the guys at the bottom of the roster fall away. The fact that those players now have value is simply evidence that we’re finally icing a competitive team.

It’s also worth noting that since March 1 - a sample size of between 62 and 70 games - the Sabres have the 8th-best points percentage in the east, just nosing out PIttsburgh and the Islanders for the final playoff spot.

Two cliches are frequently held up around here as facts that can’t both possibly be true: ”They are doing this when they are well out of the playoffs, let’s see what they do when the standings are still up for grabs and the games really matter.” ”They are doing this before the good teams buckle down and get serious, let’s see what they do down the stretch when the games really matter. But sample sizes certainly are relevant and a full calendar year is worth talking about. In 2022, the Sabres were: 40/36/8, good for 21st in the NHL Scored 281 goals, good for 16th Allowed 291 goals, good for 24th Connected 25.4% of the time on the PP, good for 4th Killed 74.4% of their penalties, good for 24th Finished 18th in shots for at 30.9 per game Finished 24th in shots against at 32.5 per game Finished 17th in Corsi, at exactly 50% Individually: Thompson scored 53 goals and 99 points, good for 6th and 18th in the NHL, respectively. Dahlin scored 17 goals and 71 points, good for 6th and 5th among NHL defencemen, respectively. Skinner scored 41 goals and 84 points, good for 8th and 11th among NHL left wingers, respectively. Tuch scored 29 goals and 76 points, good for 19th and 12th among NHL right wingers, respectively. Cozens scored 17 goals and 57 points Olofsson 28 and 48 Mittlestadt 12 and 37 Krebs 10 and 30 Some comparables: Jack Eichel in his best calendar year: 38 goals, 86 points Sam Reinhart at Cozens age: 15 goals, 38 points Thomas Vanek in 2006: 36 goals, 63 points Danny Briere in 2006; 26 goals 81 points (just 63 games)

Tremendous game by Tuch. I want to particularly highlight his efforts on the Thompson goal where he broke up a breakout pass at blueline then outhustled the much-better positioned defender to the loose puck to force the turnover. Led all NHL RWs in points per game in December with 17 points in 11 games and was +12 over that stretch. He has 76 points in 82 games as a Sabre.

Damn was this thread hard to read for most of the game. You guys turning into Twobillsdrive? Cant handle playoff-style hockey? Intense, tense, hard-fought game. Played the leagues best pretty much even up in their home barn and persevered for the win despite a sucky PP and a 2-minute 5-on-3 to kill during a late 4-minute penalty. Glad the players are mentally tougher than the board. Another important moment on the path. UPL and Krebs the latest to jump on board the growth movement. This current 11-3-2 run has now erased the 8-game losing streak. 6 out of a playoff spot with 3 games in hand. Happy New Year! Hockey is fun again!

I went looking after reading that unlinked post. I’ve seen nothing anywhere in any of Friedman’s feeds to reflect that, or in any corner of the internet for that matter. I suspect that someone made it up.

5 straight games of 3 or less allowed. 5 straight starts of .900 or more, 3 of them (Bos, Veg, Col) we don’t win without his performance. 4 wins in a row, 5 of his last 6. Ahead of Comrie in every statistical category. I’d say he’s starting to.

I mostly agree. I also believe that if UPL’s run over his next 5 mirrors his past 5 he will be doing that playing in Buffalo.

I don’t think it’s any secret that Sabrespace has generally been disappointed in Casey this year. I was curious to see how he matched up against other people in his role (basically 3C+). Mittelstadt TOI: 15:35, Goals: 7, Points: 19, Corsi 5 on 5: 48.6% Coyle TOI: 16:44, Goals: 9, Points: 19, Corsi 5 on 5: 48.0% Rasmussen TOI: 14:45, Goals: 6, Points: 16, Corsi 5 on 5: 46.6% Lundell TOI: 16:37, Goals: 4, Points: 14, Corsi 5 on 5: 55.0% Dvorak TOI: 16:52, Goals: 8, Points: 15, Corsi 5 on 5: 45.7% Pinto TOI: 15:57, Goals: 10, Points: 17, Corsi 5 on 5: 52.2% Kerfoot TOI: 15:06, Goals: 6, Points: 17, Corsi 5 on 5: 52.3% Paul TOI: 16:59, Goals: 13, Points: 21, Corsi 5 on 5: 47.5% Surprisingly, his numbers don’t seem out of line.

The plan was always to first give Comrie the opportunity to establish himself as an NHL #1 while giving UPL a ton of work to accelerate his development to the point where he could seize the job when an opportunity presented itself. Last 5 starts UPL: 4/1, 2.82, .918 Last 5 starts Comrie: 1/4, 4.00, .864 Comrie is coming back up regardless when the conditioning streak is over. What happens at that point really appears to be in UPL’s hands.

Because this convo from the game thread belongs here:

He prevents attackers from making plays, separates his man from the puck and moves the puck to safety. You know, defence.

Sabres with Mule in the lineup since March 1: 30/12/4. That’s a 114-point pace over a more than half a season sample size. This year it’s 14/4/2. (Edited to correct my math. Missed a loss)

Östlund didn’t have a huge impact offensively, but he was impressive to me for his savvy and his motor: constantly engaged, constantly in motion, constantly on the right side the puck. He passes the puck very well as well. His coach relied on him more and more as the game progressed. Krebs is going to have some competition for that 3C spot he’s started to carve for himself the past few games.

Required. Sabres were over the roster limit with Power, Lyubushkin and Bryson all healthy. They chose Fitzpatrick and Clague over him.

Kulich 25, Rosen 19, Östlund 12

Christmas hasn’t been a happy time for Sabres fans, at least not for the past decade or so. Instead of unwrapping shiny new toys over the holidays, we’re usually putting them back into the closet hoping Santa will somehow patch up their cracks and wipe away the tarnish in time for next year. That is why I am grateful for this year. Instead of numbly accepting another lump of coal wrapped with a ribbon stamped “maybe some other time”, I have reason to say “thank you, Sabres.” Thank you for the franchise defenceman I remember April 28, 2018 well. It was the first time in months where I had jumped to my feet, pumped my fist in the air, and yelled out loud in celebration over something Sabre-related. I weathered the painful Housley-fed teenage bullyings, the cringey Krueger-fuelled paralysis and the open rebellion among my brothers and sisters in fandom because I believed in the talent. And, at long last, we have been rewarded. Rasmus Dahlin is, without a doubt, the best defenceman in Buffalo Sabres history. Strong enough to win and protect pucks, smooth enough to move them where they need to go, smart enough to see plays no one else does and skilled enough to execute them. And a bit of a *****-disturber to boot. He is what we’d always hoped he would be when we won the lottery: a legitimate Norris Trophy contender. Thank you for the first line Lafontaine/Mogilny/Andreychuk and Perreault/Robert/Martin were special: explosive, game-changing and often unstoppable. It’s early, but Thompson/Tuch/Skinner has that feel, that magic. Those deadly shots, those sneaky puck strips, the sustained possessions, the dangerous rushes: the sense at times that they are men playing against boys. It’s impossible to fully compare eras, but at the moment they are 3rd, 9th and 5th in the league in points per game at their respective positions. At its best, the French Connection was 3rd, 5th and 3rd. TST is legitimately one of the best lines in the NHL. Thank you for the star centre Somewhere on here you will find a Tweet with most of Tage Thompson’s goals from this year. It’s jaw-dropping. This is a franchise that has featured Lafontaine and Perreault, but has there ever been a player who has scored so many highlight reel goals in so short a space of time? The toughest thing about the failure of the Eichel era was that little voice whispering “but if you trade him, how are you ever going to get a #1 centre? You know you can’t contend without one.” This isn’t a heater. It isn’t a blip. Thompson is for real. He can impose his will on a game. He and Dahlin are the types of talent that can be the best players on a cup-winner. That he was under our noses the whole time feels nothing short of miraculous. Thank you for the entertainment. The best offence in the league? Who saw that coming? A power play clicking at nearly 30%? Highlight reel dekes and passes? A sense that the game is never really ever decided until the final minute? After years of knowing that a 2-0 deficit was insurmountable, and that a 1-0 lead was going to inevitably turn into a 3-1 loss, this year’s team is like water in the desert. The fact that this group also plays hockey with an obvious joy and passion for the game, and seems to be full of the types of people you genuinely want to root for only adds to the fun. And thank you for the hope. Not one of them has played anywhere near that magical 200 game mark necessary before a player’s ceiling starts to become apparent. But it is clear Cozens, Samuelsson, Power, Quinn and Peterka will be at least good NHLers. It will be surprising if some don’t become considerably more. That they will be augmenting an existing core of Tuch Thompson Skinner and Dahlin, rather than having the entire weight of the franchise on their shoulders is reason to hope. That there is a fully stocked cupboard of talented prospects coming hard at their heels is another reason to hope. And that the team has managed to get to this point while still hanging on to all of their draft and salary cap capital in order to retain and augment this roster is yet another reason to hope. Finally, that all of this is in the hands of Granato and Adams - two good, smart men and underrated hockey lifers who walk their talk - is reason to hope. We aren’t out of the desert of irrelevance yet, but you can smell the oasis on the other side of the dunes. There are reasons to feel good about being a Sabres fan again. Merry Christmas, enjoy the ride.

Here are the current numbers for goalies who were available, with last year in brackets: Murray .925 (.906) Georgiev .925 (.898) Lankinen .925 (.891) Samsonov .924 (.896) Anderson .922 (.897) Kuemper .916 (.921) Lindgren .913 (.958) Husso .912 (.919) Talbot .911 (.911) Copley .910 (.878) Vanecek .909 (.908) Hill .903 (.906) Rittich .906 (.886) Luukkonen .891 (.917) Jones .888 (.900) Comrie .887 (.920) Blackwood .882 (.892) Campbell .876 (.914) Mrazek .874 (.888) Petersen .868 (.895) A few things stand out to me: There was literally one goalie available (Kuemper) who was coming off a good year and had a proven track record as a #1. The best choice statistically so far was quite literally Adams’ first choice (Murray) There is not a single player on that list worth investing significant cap space or assets to acquire. We are 30 games into the #s and a lot of them will change, both this year and beyond. Aside from a dozen or so who rarely come on the market (and still can slump, like Markstrom and Demko) goalies seem to be a fickle, capricious lot. If you knew prior to this year that Lankinen would be good, Copley fine and Petersen downright awful, you should probably be working for an NHL team Certainly Georgiev or Husso look like they may have been better paths for the Sabres as of this morning, but in terms of risk/reward in the off-season it’s pretty easy to justify what Adams did. It will be interesting to see if Comrie is able to close the gap at all when he returns, or if Levi (who isn’t going anywhere) and/or UPL can arrive in time to justify his plan.

I get a little head-shakey when Rob Ray goes on one of his inevitable spiels about how the Sabres just have to throw shots at the net and see what happens when they are clearly coached not to do that. I find it odd that Donnie gets very little credit for icing the best offence in the league. And from a team that was the worst offence in the league just 2 years ago and then traded away its entire first line. We don't see the D blasting away from the point or the forwards taking low-percentage whacks at the net at any opportunity. Our players are in constant motion — shooting to score, or passing to a player who is in a better position to do so, or find someone who is. This is clearly a team strategy. On Donnie's WGR appearance this week he talked about coaching a team at the world's that outshot an opponent 36 to 12 and lost because the other team was able to sit on their lead and how that inspired him to find ways to not let that happen. His philosophical response is not to teach patience, or fight stone walls with one of his own; it's to teach skill and cultivate players capable of cracking that type of shell.

The Sabres lead the NHL in shooting percentage. Some might say this is an indication of puck luck and is something that is unsustainable. I say it is an indication of players who are really good shooters, and coaching that is emphasizing high-percentage shots over high-percentage Corsi. Discuss.

Jeff Skinner has the NHL’s 36th-highest cap hit this year. He is the league’s 25th-highest scorer. Only 8 of the 35 players making more than him are out scoring him. Only 2 of them have a better +/-.