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Everything posted by dudacek
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Sabrespace 2023-24 predictions for the Sabres
dudacek replied to GASabresIUFAN's topic in The Aud Club
Devon Levi is a star, the Sabres make the playoffs with ease and make a run to the final 4. -
We need to talk about Zach Benson making the team this year, 2023
dudacek replied to LGR4GM's topic in The Aud Club
“170-pound teenagers can’t survive the grind of pro hockey. An 82-game season will grind them down and destroy their confidence. Some 230-pound goon will take a run at him and shatter his body and his psyche beyond repair.” Every single reason why Benson shouldn’t be in the NHL this year could have also been applied to Isak Rosen and Jiri Kulich playing in the AHL last year. Maybe the Sabres have learned a thing or two about this situation? -
Annual expectations thread 2023/24: #10 Henri Jokiharju
dudacek replied to dudacek's topic in The Aud Club
Sometimes players become whipping boys because they struggle (Bryson, UPL). Other times it just feels like the mob needs someone to pile on. I think the latter’s the case with Joki. Everyone talks about the defence falling apart last fall when Samuelsson went out. No one talks about #10 also being missing for that stretch. Everyone talks about Samuelsson Dahlin being such a good pair last year. No one talks about Jokiharju Dahlin being an even better pair analytically. Everyone talks about injuries hampering Dahlin’s play after the all-star game last year. No one talks about Jokiharju playing through 2 serious injuries last season. The guys not a star, but he’s a real NHL defenceman, not the Jamie McBain-like press box fodder some of you make him out to be: Sekera, Kalinin, Shannon - good Sabres teams have always had room for guys his level. The article has a subtext that suggests the room is well aware of what the keyboard warriors are saying about Henri. I hope he’s healthy and able to piss in their Cheerios this year. -
I guess it should be considered a miracle if a pro hockey team looks beyond tired, myopic hockey tropes like “18-year-olds can’t play” when making lineup decisions. Because there are reasons why Benson slipped to 13, and they aren’t about “doing better”.
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There's absolutely nothing wrong with this statement, but it's trumped by two things IMO: 1) his competition 2) his play Jack Quinn's spot is open and Benson has been head-and-shoulders better than the other guys competing for it, consistently, in every way: offensively, defensively, in a first line role, in a 3rd line role, along the wall, in open ice, in the first game and in the 6th. Not one player on the bubble could look at himself in the mirror and say "I was better than that guy." not Kulich, not Rousek, not Biro. They know it, and the veterans know it. It hasn't been close. Anyone who says it has, hasn't been watching. If he can't keep it up when the bullets start flying for real, then send him down and give another guy his shot. But if it's about winning, then performance has to mean something. Earning it has to mean something, Benson's performance has earned it.
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I’m not concerned about losing Bryson, and I doubt they are either, but I don’t think they’re as anxious to dump him as the fans are. However, I do think they’d prefer to carry 8 D, and they’re not anxious to to give away either backup. That scenario was not about saving Bryson, more about “don’t bet on the goalie situation being resolved on roster cutdown day, here’s a way it could drag out.”
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You thinking Johnson has already made Bryson redundant in their minds?
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10D (you forgot Bryson) 5 more cuts coming out of Comrie, UPL, Benson, Rousek, Biro, Clague, Johnson, Stillman and Bryson. If they can’t trade Comrie or UPL before cutdown day, I’m fully expecting Johnson, Clague, Rousek and Biro to be sent down, and a defenceman put on IR so they can keep both and Bryson.
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Hope the vets got the kinks out tonight because most of them looked pretty bad. But as for the players on the bubble, I think we’ve got our answers. UPL played like UPL. Nothing he did should have changed any minds. Johnson looked not perfect, but skilled and confident, like he has. He’ll get sent down because he needs to play, but he’ll be back, and when he does, there’s a pretty good chance he’s going to stay. Biro did less than he has in previous showings. He’ll be in Buffalo at some point this year, but it won’t be next Thursday. I thought Rousek worked hard and played smart, even if he flubbed that great Benson set-up. It was the kind of game I’d hope he’d give us if he made the team. But he’s not going to. Because the Rousek/Krebs/Benson line only one that looked engaged and in sync. And its driver was Benson. Looks like his linemates don’t matter. Kid is a dog, plus he’s got brains and skill. He makes a difference and he has every game he’s played. That has to matter for something. They’d be nuts not to keep him up to start the season.
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Kinda makes me think this is more due diligence on Benson: how much of his performance has been the product of his linemates; can he play further down the roster; how does he compare to Rousek in the same situations against the same opponents? Everything they’ve done so far with this kid indicates he’s getting very real consideration for making the team.
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This ^^^ I think Freeman’s take, while factual, is missing some context. Mitts did not play poorly then pile points in garbage time 3 years ago, he was marginalized by a ***** coach who squandered the talents of many players during that season’s first half, then he started to blossom under a good coach. Two years ago, he was hurt in the very first game of the season, missed a ton of action, and never fully recovered. And last year his “slow” start still represented a “good” player. And his finish wasn’t just good, it was excellent. As @GASabresIUFAN points out, this a three-year journey of steady improvement through adversity, not 2 1/2 years of poor play followed by a surprising 1/2 season leap. It’s a testament to his perseverance and Granato’s coaching. If the Sabres make a leap this year, Mittelstadt will almost certainly be a big reason why.
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I’m sure I posted about this before, but to me the litmus test was the Florida teams. Historically, any time we’d give them a game, they’d ratchet up the dirty and we’d wilt. That didn’t happen last year, we matched them elbow for elbow and slash for slash. (Head-to-head, I got a real sense that we may have passed Tampa last year. Hoping to see proof of that this year) Cozens, Dahlin, Krebs…these guys aren’t skinny, timid little kids any more. They give as good as they get. Nobody is pushing around mammoth human beings like Tuch or Tage or Samuelsson. Erik Johnson and Jordan Greenway are 2 of the biggest men in the NHL who can actually play. Clifton and Stillman will pop you first. More importantly, these guys have each other’s backs. There are 3 guys on the roster (4 if Benson makes it) that I worry about being able to show up when the bullets start flying - Jost, Bryson and Olofsson - and none of them are likely to be everyday players.. This team is not going to be pushed around this year.
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What I want see is more acknowledgement that Stillman, Greenway, Levi, Johnson and Clifton represent an attempt to do exactly that: size, strength, defence, experience and a #1 goalie on sensible contracts at the cost of some secondary futures. Five players on a 23-man roster represents a 20-25% turnover. It remains to be seen if they’re the right players, but, on paper, Adams has done exactly what you wanted him to. The time is now.
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To be clear, I think Cozens is a better player and has a higher ceiling. I was mostly referring to my sense that a lot of Sabres fans don’t think they’re “in the same stratosphere” when the numbers last year said they kinda are. Production-wise, Cozens was the 28th highest scoring centre in the league last year. Mitts was 45th - basically a great 2C and a good one. In terms of puck possession, Mitts had a 51.5% to Dylan’s 49.4%, so a little above average and a little below. Mitts also had better defensive analytics last year in the models Ive seen. Analytics show each has an elite trait: Cozens as an entry guy (96th percentile), Casey as a setup man (98th percentile).