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Everything posted by LastPommerFan
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I am very interested in seeing the GOP nominate a minority (I think this would be almost impossible with the primary system) and test whether minority voters are voting for Democrats because they agree with ideology, or because they see candidates with the same skin color as they have. It would be interesting.
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If he doesn't we will go over that cliff in January. 60% in the exit polls felt taxes should be raised. (47% said on just the wealthiest, 13% on everyone). That's the mandate.
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I used to work in Boehner's District. I really think he's smarter than this. His job is going to be to corral his Tea Party wing. Well, if your friend is right, the issue should start resolving itself in the midterm elections.
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So gerrymandering is just the bonus win you get for winning the decade elections?
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The more I look at this, the more frustrated I get. 53,900,000 votes were cast for democratic candidates in the house. 53,400,000 votes were cast for republicans. Democrats received half a million more votes (probably more since all of California's results are not in yet) and yet end up with a 40+ seat deficit in the House. Worse, Boehner is using his "maintained Majority" as some sort of Mandate from the people that we can't raise taxes on the rich and we should cut entitlement benefits. Even as I type this I'm becoming more and more incensed. Is there a good way to get away from gerrymandering? How is it possible that Democrats earn a +1% margin in votes and end up with a -10% margin in seats? How is this ok?
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Right, I'm just trying to be as difficult to reason with as half the republican party is.
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PA: Unions OH: Unions WI: Unions SC is the first medium sized state for a reason. No Unions, Evangelicals, and fewer carpetbaggers than NC or GA. If the socially liberal candidate got momentum early, the party could end up without a candidate before the convention. This would be a disaster in modern elections. To be clear, I'm talking about resources needed during a world war III, not trading partners during peace time. You guys were there in Normandy, you'll be there with us the next time.
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No way the GOP promotes the single largest entitlement state in the country to the front of the primary race. If memory serves, the GOP punished florida this year for moving their primary up.
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wait. we are right there. at the inflection point. where the rate starts to come down. phew. ;) the chart is also missing the massive drop caused by spanish flu. i get your point though, we totally need to undo the industrial revolution.
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2010 was a bad bad year for democracy, er, Democrats.
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I'm confused about the house. Particularly the delegations from Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Florida. All five states have overwhelmingly Republican delegations in to the House of Representatives. All five elected Democratic senators and Barack Obama. Is there really that many split vote ballots, or is this extreme gerrymandering? each state had a Republican Governor during redistricting for the 2010 census.
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This is outstanding.
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Even if we decimate our economy prior to this attack with environmental, financial, and social destruction (1929-1941) we still can kick the whole worlds ass by ourselves in 4 years. I am not afraid. No one fights like we do. We've fought a major war at least every 20 years for the last 15 decades. And we still sit atop the most resource rich piece of the planet. with the ability to reach out and get more at will (###### canada)
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I propose a third possibility. The Florida and VA markets were saturated and they had additional monies available (Romney is independently wealthy after all). It was a hail mary.
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When the dust settles I think we're going to find out that those ads. the trips to Ohio and Wisconsin, and everything else the Romney campaign did these past 10 days were driven by panic that their internal polls showed they might lose in Florida and Virginia. Those to had to be in the bag for him to have a chance.
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I don't think the GOP is funded on the social issues. Eventually the people/groups/companies funding the party will want to stop backing older white men who lose because they have social views that were unpalatable two decades ago. The GOP has to drop the 100% ban on abortion, the fight against gay marriage, and the idea that illegal immigrants come here to leach off the system and take our jobs. They can't win a national election with those policies, and they'll struggle to win most state wide elections. They'll be stuck winning gerrymandered congressional districts for the next 8 years, when the 2020 census and the next big political-demographic shift will kill them off entirely. If I were a betting man, I'd expect a further social-fiscal schism in the conservative movement, with the money landing on the fiscal conservatives side.
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That mobilization is even more important when your core constituencies are groups that historically don't vote. The president didn't need to win over white working class voters in Ohio. He won enough young women in Virginia and Hispanics in Nevada and Colorado to win. The demographic problem is a huge issue for the GOP. All the Democrat constituencies are growing faster than all the GOP constituencies. Marco Rubio is a really interesting potential GOP candidate. It could test whether minorities are voting democrat because they feel they belong due to skin color, or because they feel they belong due to ideology. My favorite quote from last night was from George Will: "For young people in this country, being gay is like being left-handed. It's boring. They don't understand why we even have to talk about it."
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I am shocked that the polls on average were basically 1-2% biased AGAINST Obama. Everyone was talking about the likelyhood that they were correct or slightly biased for the president. I didn't hear too many people saying the polls were underestimating the democratic turnout.
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I read what my conservative friends are writing, and it looks a lot like what I was writing in 2004. I was very afraid of where the country was going. I have some sympathy for that. Then I remember that before the end of GWB's second term the whole worlds economy collapsed. I kind of feel vindicated by that, tragically, I was right. I hope the current group of prophets is wrong, for everyone's sake.
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Indeed, I only voted prez and US Senate (the only races that i could vote in no matter where I lived in NYS)
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I'll run in 2014. That should take care of it.
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marijuana legal in Mass. Romney will at least have fun in retirement.
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i was right on indiana senate! obamacare lives!!
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If it's all over there, we don't have a 45th president yet.
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Only 1-2% back from Miami-Dade and Broward still lots of blue votes left to count in florida.