TheAud

I was looking at some fancy stats on Puckalytics.com. I don’t claim to be an expert in this area but it does interest me. Here’s some that jumped out at me today: Top 7 defensemen in terms of 5-on-5 ice-time Sorted by Goals For %, with on ice PDO listed as well. (GF% being what % of goals scored 5-on-5 were they on the ice for that Buffalo scored, and PDO being a measure of shooting % for and against with 100 being the long term average – so it’s a measure of ‘puck luck’ with numbers higher than 100 being lucky and below 100 being unlucky, implies a regression to the mean is coming at some point). I am not looking at any ‘quality of competition’ info here which obviously is important. GF% PDO Franson 58.6 102.1 McCabe 53.9 101.7 Falk 50.0 99.0 Risto 48.6 100.4 Gorges 43.5 99.3 Bogo 30.0 95.5 Kuli 28.6 96.5 Some references: Buffalo’s team average for GF% 5-on-5 is 48.3%. This is 19th in the league with Montreal in 1st at 62.0% and Colorado last at 37%. In 2015-16 Buffalo finished at 44.8%, and in 2014-2015 at 38.5%. Interpretations: -Franson and McCabe have been playing well but benefiting from PDO’s that will probably bring them down a bit in the future, especially Franson. McCabe is doing it with many more minutes and tougher competition (I expect). -Falk doesn’t appear to be hurting the team, which is what my eyeballs are saying too. -Risto is slightly above the team average which is actually a strong number since he plays such a huge number of minutes against the top competition. -Gorges is a bit sub-par, but we already knew that. Great on the 3rd pairing, not so much on 2nd pairing. -Bogosian and Kulikov – one the one hand, my God it’s bad. They appear to be getting absolutely caved in without generating any offense to speak of. I think that’s somewhat true. On the other hand, their sample sizes aren’t as large as others (due to missing so many games to injury) and their PDO’s are really low and should be expected to regress higher over time, raising the GF% numbers. But still, not pretty. (If these sort of posts are inappropriate for GDT’s someone please just let me know and I’ll look for other places to do so if I get the inclination)

Lehner tonight, Nilsson tomorrow? Or vice versa? Would sort of like to see Nilsson tonight.

I know, right? I didn't go back and look at each one but in at least two of them the other team didn't even need the 3rd shooter to win the SO. Of course 0 for 6 is a bad run and I expect some regression to the mean coming but our shooters are now 3 for 14 with one of those goals from Cal O'Reilly. Okposo leads at 0 for 5. Frankly speaking we are lucky to have won one of the 6 shootouts thus far.

Hard to work on improving the goalies in shootouts when the only shooters at hand for DD to send against them are ours! :wallbash:

Yes I'm joking. Lighten up, Frances

Lehner has played well shoot outs aside...he's a playoff goalie!

Can we replace Lehner with one of those cut outs that look like a goalie with the 5 openings for shootouts?

I'm just hoping they can get shots off before being poke checked away or having the puck roll on them. Also I'm expecting at least one puck randomly hits Lehner.

Well one point better than none.

Well this thing has gone south quickly

I'm going to stop watching 1st periods

Larsson having a nice game

Yeah, agree. I wish GMTM had gotten someone like Stempniak to run on that top line so Foligno could be with Eichel and Okposo, then bump Moulson down to 4th line next to Girgs and Carrier and we'd be cooking. He probably expected Ennis to be that guy however.

I don't think sending him down will accomplish anything positive in the long run and could be quite detrimental in the short run. There's no doubt he is one of our top 9 forwards and this is coming from someone who thinks he's not really playing that well. It's too early to judge but so far I he feels like a 2nd overall pick not unlike Dave Legwand...more offense and less defense than Legwand but that caliber of player. This is a nice player to have on your team but a bit less than you're hoping for from the #2 overall. However at this point, he's on the roster and his draft position is irrelevant. I like him on a line with ROR as much as possible as Ryan's work ethic and hockey sense seems to keep Samson on the right path whereas when he gets on a line with less disciplined (or hockey smart) guys like Kane or even Eichel (who's still finding his NHL game), he seems to lose the thread a bit. Maybe a 3rd line role with Gionta would be OK for a while as well.

Alternatively, results may regress to the mean and it ends up looking similar to past seasons. (I didn't read that anywhere though)

After some recent posts in other topics I was curious as to the pace of points per game this team has accumulated vs. the past two Sabres seasons. I have not been able to figure out how to post an image viewable on the screen but did manage (I think) to attach a file. If you are interested, please check it out. I am comparing all three seasons to a 96 point pace, good enough to be in the running for the playoffs. Obviously not where they want to be long term but a reasonable goal for this season. The tank team's point progression, or lack thereof, is really stunning. I just sort of blanked out that year in my mind. Given the 21 games without Jack and the other injuries, I think this team is in an OK place relative to expectations to this point. Sabres tracker 12-17-2016.pdf

I made a backyard rink one year...just a great experience. However I live in Corning where it's generally 1-5 degrees warmer than Buffalo or Rochester and that actually makes a huge difference some winters on days available to skate. My only add from that experience is that leaves are your enemy. It seems non-intuitive but a brown leaf stuck to the ice on a sunny 25 degree day will burrow a 1/2" divot into your ice surface. The absorption of sunlight by the darker surface is really significant. Even colder days are not immune. Good luck, it's totally worth it.

Why did Kane shoot from there? Oh right...

Agree with this...or Okposo

I am maybe not so in touch with the 'average Japanese' person these days but my view of Japanese culture is somewhat similar to what I see in the US when it comes to learning from history or be doomed to repeat it: people are too focused on the latest and greatest new smart phone, or their favorite series on Netflix, etc. to really understand their government's policies or reflect on the direction the country is headed much beyond liking a slogan that makes them feel good. As of 2013 I certainly hadn't noticed anything like a populist or nationalist movement beyond the fringe elements. Maybe it's picked up there like Brexit or Trump represents that sort of movement in the UK and US...I'm not sure. Frankly I spend a lot more time in Taiwan than I do Japan these days so I'm more in tune with the politics there.

Maybe it was mentioned elsewhere and I missed it, but I really noticed Kulikov as a positive influence last night. He moved the puck well, played physical, and at least provides the threat of offense as opposed to say, Gorges. 23:45 ice time all at even strength, 2 SOG, 5 blocked shots, and 3 hits per the box score. I think they missed Kulikov when he was out more than is generally being discussed.

Agree - if Moulson puts out that effort (which is not a given) and is paired with Jack and Okposo...that's a nice 2nd line. Just need to find the right piece with ROR and Samson on the first line. It's not Carrier yet at this point in his career. Please not Kane. Might be good to give Foligno or even Zemgus a try in that slot.

He looked even less happy going out for the face off that followed with his fellow 4th linemates. Would love to see him start scoring and stay out of trouble long enough for Murray to include him in a package for an upgrade on the blue line.

ROR will'd that thing in

Deslauriers is so useless