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TheAud

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Everything posted by TheAud

  1. Interestingly, they haven't made an announcement to lower prices either. It appears prices are, thus far, unchanged. I predict that the current trend will continue. Or, prices will change. And when they change, they will go up or down. Or perhaps both simultaneously in a complex dynamic pricing scheme depending on opponent, day of the week, weather conditions, and what has recently been released on Netflix.
  2. My early year concert slate has been completed: Clapton at MSG Blind Boys of Alabama - Corning Museum of Glass Bela Fleck & Abigail Washburn - Corning Buddy Guy at UB Summer schedule thus far: Tedeschi Trucks Band in Rochester Boston in Syracuse Taking my 13 year old to see Boston after taking the older two when Boston came to Big Flats, NY (Tags) two years ago. She will love it. Saw TTB last year at UB and they have a fantastic new live album out. I highly recommend. Edit: Just bought tickets to Tommy Emmanuel and David Grisman in Ithaca in November, and I forgot about Arturo Sandoval in Corning in September. Shaping up as a great year for shows!
  3. I believe it's worth $73,248. Not enough to turn down an extra million dollars per year for 5 years. The thing is people rarely determine that the reason they are the hated guy in the room is because of themselves. In Kane's mind, he just happened to have a bad situation in Winnipeg. He's not the problem and wouldn't be on his new team either. So why would he take less money?
  4. Interesting article making the case for Futa: http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/sabres-would-be-wise-to-seriously-consider-futa-for-gm-job#cxrecs_s Campbell is sort of a blowhard but he is knowledgeable.
  5. NHL.com says 8PM Edit: for announcing results. Maybe there is a show talking about it for 30 minutes beforehand if that's your thing. I'd rather clean the bathtub than watch that.
  6. If he played 15 games or something, sure. But he played more than 40 and took 200 faceoffs and logged 100 minutes on the penalty kill. Whereas any of Bailey, Baptiste, ERod, Carrier, or even Cal O'Reilly or Cole Schneider would have been more productive. But I think Byslma saw him as that veteran (in terms of age) face-off/defensive guy "concept" even though in actuality, he sucks. But he did win over 52% of his face-offs!
  7. I was thinking along the same lines. Slightly different group of players to compare, aggregating their totals, normalizing to 82 games played and 12 minutes per game: GP G A PTS +/- PIM ATOI SOG SPCT Age William Carrier, LW 41 5 3 8 -1 21 9:00 50 10 22.4 Evan Rodrigues, RW 30 4 2 6 -7 4 12:56 51 7.8 23.8 Nicholas Baptiste, RW 14 3 1 4 1 6 9:14 16 18.8 21.6 Justin Bailey, RW 32 2 2 4 0 4 10:38 36 5.6 21.7 Totals 117 14 8 22 -7 35 10:27 153 9.2% 22.4 82 games 82 10 9.8 6 15.4 -5 25 10:27 107 9.2% 12 minutes/game 82 11.3 6.4 17.7 -6 28 12:00 123 9.2% GP G A PTS +/- PIM ATOI SOG SPCT Age Zemgus Girgensons, C 75 7 9 16 -7 18 13:10 112 6.3 23.3 Tyler Ennis, LW 51 5 8 13 -10 12 12:50 89 5.6 27.5 Marcus Foligno, LW 80 13 10 23 -1 73 15:28 97 13.4 26.7 Johan Larsson, LW 36 6 5 11 -7 20 16:51 49 12.2 26.8 Totals 242 31 32 63 -25 123 14:34 347 8.9% 26.1 82 games 82 10.5 11 21.3 -8 42 14:34 117.6 8.9% 12 min/game 82 8.6 8.9 17.6 -7 34 12:00 97 8.9% Recognizing that there are many other differences here (special teams playing time, quality of opposition and linemates, etc) and that I am not talkign Corsi% or anything more sophisticated, it's still striking that the more veteran (and except for Zemgus, older) group is in not at all more productive than the rookie group based on last year's performance. Presumably the younger guys have more upside and we know are a lot cheaper. Same # of points (18), more shots on goal. I really hope the new GM and Coach combo can figure this out in a way that ExGMTM and DDB could not. (edit: Obviously I need to learn how to format stuff on this forum)
  8. In bold...I think that was the Derek Grant concept.
  9. Is this Paul Hamilton math?
  10. Is the face-off thing such a big deal? ROR was at 58% and Larsson at 49%. Assuming 1000 faceoffs (which would easily be #2 on the Sabres this past year in terms of # of FO's) that's a difference of a little over one face-off win per game. If Larsson could improve enough to split the difference we are talking one more face-off win every other game. Don't get me wrong, that would be nice but it pales in comparison to other things like shooting, passing, defense... Am I missing something here?
  11. Like Keith and Brent Gretzky?
  12. This is where I'm at as well. My earlier point is that the 5th round tender and not matching is not a terrible move at face value, like say giving up a 1st and 4th to move up a few slots to draft Watkins or giving McCoy a massive extension when he is already under contract, but it's not the play I'd have made. 2nd round tender at $2M and no offer sheet comes in.
  13. Maybe not. If it's a 2nd round tender the Pats don't make the offer at all. So it's Gillislee at $2M, playing for the Bills vs. $1.2M in additional cap space and a late 5th round pick. It all depends on your perspective of how well Gillislee will perform relative to his replacement in Buffalo (like J. Williams) and subsequent RB's they will pick up on the cheap, and what's the value of having the extra pick (in this case, Bills need more young, quality players badly) Personally I liked TD Mike and hate to see him go but it's not at all obvious this is a "massive cap mistake" and may or may not end up being a good or bad move. (Like I said, I don't like it but it's defensible)
  14. I'd go: 1) Gare 2) Martin 3) Andreychuck 4) Mogilny 5) Vanek 6) Eichel. #6 is rising in the rankings however...
  15. I like this simple, but normalized set of data to compare players in a similar situation (1st two years of their career, picked #2 overall). If Samson ends up being the "average" of the three guys above him and three guys below him on this list, I am happy with that: Landeskog, Seguin, Shanahan, Marleau, Van Riemsdyk, Barkov Baker forgot to include Eichel. He would rank 4th on the list with Malkin, Heatley, Yashin above and B. Ryan, Falloon, and T. Linden below. I certainly hope Jack ends up with a better career than all but probably one of those guys.
  16. Do not build a team like the Team USA in the World Cup of Hockey. Now who was that GM again?
  17. Another example in a different sport is the Bills under Wilson. He wasn't a great owner (I'd argue he was a great man when you consider his charitable donations and legacy) he managed to stumble onto the Polian/Butler/Levy combination and ride that to great sustained success for a period of time before he blew it up. Otherwise, he largely flitted between mediocrity and putrescence for the other 30 years with occasional luck sprinkled in (I am not including the AFL success early on...that was a different situation entirely).
  18. Well, there's George Soros.
  19. Mitch Trubisky is going to be the new Sabres team President? I'd prefer Watson.
  20. That would be such a blessing. The Bills have been burdened with an inordinate number of late season home games by which time: a) The preponderance of harder-to-win road games have stacked the deck against their already slim playoff chances by the end of the season and b) The weather has become, shall we say, chillier, making it less desirable for fans
  21. This is a radical and novel argument I need to ponder for awhile to comprehend.
  22. Going to see Bela Fleck and Abigail Washburn tonight. This is a cool one: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=S5AsyuNia5Y
  23. I beg your pardon
  24. I'm as down on the franchise as anyone but won't read anything from Sullivan. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
  25. GP G A PM SOG S% ZG 80 11 14 22 131 8.20% Turns 24 next season JL 80 10 12 35 98 10.10% Will be 25 next season (+1.5 years vs. ZG) Here are their career basic stats on an 80 game season (I know it's an 82 game season but everyone misses one or two games). ZG has slightly more offense, JL is a bit more of an agitator. ZG is 1.5 years younger. I would have thought ZG's high shooting% in his second year would show up here but it's actually two points lower than Larsson. If forced to choose I'd prefer to keep Zemgus. He produces similarly to Johan but I feel he's been somewhat mis-used by Bylsma and still has some upside. Whereas despite popular opinion that the Gionta, Larsson, Foligno line was some great functioning 3rd line I thought they were terrible, constantly being out shot and pinned in their own end. So I can't get too excited about Larsson.
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