TheAud

No one can manage a cigarette while singing back-up and slinging a mean axe like Ronnie Wood can.

I caught a little more than a period of the Ducks - Vegas game last night. Anaheim couldn't carry Vegas's jock from what I saw. Given how badly the Golden Knights manhandled the Sabres, it should be a good contest tonight.

I'm not going to use Lehner from the past two seasons as my example of anything ongoing, knowing what we know now of his state of mind.

I Just went back and found the section of the book. Pages 222-224. It wasn't the central point of the chapter at all, more of a side note so it's a summary of several published studies. Of course I went to look for the key study they reference but it was on War-on-ice and that appears to be more or less defunct now. The main point was that a somewhat famous study showed save % for goalies who played both ends of a back to back dropped about 0.2% but later studies found that was more a fluke of the season studied. One of the seasons was the lockout season which had a weird compressed schedule anyway. So a later study (2015 War-on-Ice that I can't find) apparently looked at every season since the lockout 2005 through 2013-14 and found that the initial study looked at the two seasons with the largest decrease in goalie save%'s in back-to-back's, but in looking at other seasons they actually found three years where goalie save % was higher in the second game of a back-to-back where they played both games. Whereas some other studies apparently conclude that teams playing back to backs are "5% worse at attempting close shots and 6% worse at allowing close shots." (Another War-on-ice blog post, both of these are from a guy named Andrew Thomas). Nonetheless, intuitively it seems that playing a second day in a row would be harder than playing when fully rested, due to fatigue. I guess if a "hot hand" effect actually exists for goaltending and your goalie is playing well, it might make sense to play him on the 2nd night as well. Alternatively if you have a goalie really struggling, you might be better off starting the other guy both nights. In the Sabres case although Ullmark has certainly played well I am not sure if he is truly a hot hand per se and I don't feel Hutton is struggling, so I'd start Hutton tomorrow.

Interesting you say that. I just read a book that claims to debunk this. I'll have to go find the exact reference. (Book is called "Stat Shot"). I believe they conclude that the poorer performance of goalies in back to backs is not so much the goalie plays worse but rather the team in front of them is tired and gives up more quality chances. Something like that.

You could do without the knuckle dragging old school view that to feminize something is equal to calling it weak? Yeah, I could do without that too.

I had planned on watching the first period before realizing I was tired so I went to bed instead. My best move of the day. Hard to believe we're back to opponents shorthanded goals coming more frequently than Sabres PP goals. This happened early last year too.

Thomas Chabot too.

It's just like music stars and planes. Buddy Holly, Patsy Cline, Lynryd Skynyrd, John Denver, Jim Croce... The link is obvious. Musicians should not fly on planes.

Heading to bed here. They're not scoring tonight.

Point taken. I guess the intent of my comment is still valid insomuch as he was not a regular part of the team, mostly being an Amerk. But strictly speaking I was incorrect for sure.

Hockey teams have multiple components attempting to function at a high level at all times. Four lines, three pairings, and a goaltender..on the PK, on the PP, at even strength...at home and on the road, early in games, late in games, etc. It's natural that in wins or losses, some of these components, however they are dissected, are performing very well and some are performing less well. The question is whether the overall talent, team culture, and coaching enables enough of those components to fire at a high level enough of the time to produce wins. Playoff teams generate this desired mix in various combinations enough over 82 games to get into the tournament. Sometimes a hot goaltender carries them for a few games, then goalie starts to look human but the top lines take over and start scoring, then later on the defense kicks in and the PP gets hot. And so forth. All this is a way of saying it's reasonable to both enjoy the win while also acknowledging the components of the team that are not performing well. Of course one game is only a single data point and even 5 games isn't enough to know where we're at. I want to give the team another 5 games at least (probably longer given 50% roster turnover) to really draw my own conclusions as to where this team is headed. An aside: all 3 goal scorers and the shut-out goalie were not with the club last season. One point for JBot. But it's a good one to reply to. It's not like you are replying to Diet Mango Snapple here.

54.46% does not round up to 55% in any reasonable math system. Prior to last season he was sub 50% for his career. Agree though that perhaps Housley thinks one extra faceoff win every other game is meaningful enough to cover for Larsson's other deficiencies that manifest themselves the other 99% of time he's on the ice when it's not a faceoff.

I knew this day was coming but I still hate seeing Larsson in the lineup at all. Underskilled guy with mediocre skating and physical play as well.

You're assuming it's not to their advantage to do so. I have no idea whether that is the case or not. As you said, it's all a theory without data backing it up. The question is do the Sabres actually have a "shutdown line" that can effectively match up with a high powered line like the B's have. If not, maybe being aggressive by putting them on the defensive is a viable option. Again, I agree it's all theory. I was just initially reacting to the data about Eichel's line being out there for 1/2 the shifts.

I'd like to see how many of those shifts were off offensive or neutral zone face-offs. I'd like to think the #1 line with the $10M man can drive some play in the Boston end to negate their top line once in awhile.

It's actually Native American Summer you are referring to. Indian Summer are the warm days that occur after first eating Chicken Vindaloo, or Palak Paneer.

You are so lucky that you can still watch Breaking Bad for the first time. I look forward to my 3rd time through over the holidays.

Gotcha - never got there, always wanted to go. I still go to Asia frequently so maybe someday. Would like to see that massive aquarium with the whale sharks in it. Thank you for your service!

Is the audience kids off school for Columbus Day perhaps, focus on in-person attendance rather than TV? Just guessing, that seems to strategic and forward looking for Sabres administration.

Where are you located? Just curious as I lived in Tokyo for 7 years on an expat assignment with my company and had various military connections and social experiences.

Just stopped in here for the first time since 1st period. Lighten up Frances! It's game 1.

2. If opponents are co-workers, why do they keep taking out each other's knees and driving them into the boards causing concussions? Why haven't they policed this? Where's the damn code? 4. Brad Marchand makes $5M per year. Five Million. Screw his bad days at the office. 5. Said without a trace of irony?

This made me happy on so many levels. Brilliant.

Those are probably the guys. I think Risto could be a tough out with his strength. Thompson certainly has the reach but needs to fill out some.