rakish

I wrote about my draft contest, Mom's Basement Stakes, year 7 over at hfb. If you add it all up, I think Pronman would be out in the lead, then liger, me, Button, McKenzie, Sabres. Liger pointed me to the website pick224 a few weeks ago, I think it'll improve my drafting, as now I can use even strength points rather than overall points.

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There are people on hfb that watch the 67s that prefer Quinn to Rossi. For me, my model deducts points if a teammate scores more points than you, which harms Quinn unnecessarily as I'm told Quinn and Rossi didn't play together. If I valuated using goals instead of points, I would certainly like Quinn more. I would reconsider his ranking except he didn't score many points as a 16 year old either. Hockeyprospects.com has him 6th, they did very well in the 2018 version of my draft contest.

You can't sign a guy for half a season, can you?

Pateryn

I read recently that KHL draft picks retain rights forever, I really don't know much about it.

I have Bennett 19th for the decade, that would put him 6th behind Perfetti and in front of Jarvis if you average their 16th and 17th year. If you look at just year 17, Bennett's at 15 for the decade, which would be 4th in 2020, though picking the right number for Stutzle is difficult as there haven't been many DEL picks, so Bennett could easily be 5th. Picking 8, I don't care what the right number for Stutzle is, since he'll be long gone. I have Coloangelo 176 for the decade for 17 year old forwards. I find I get better success by averaging 16 and 17, it smooths out a lot of bumps. Coloangelo's 16th year didn't have that much output. Averaging the two years he's at 359 for the decade. Some people get better, so averaging doesn't always work well. I don't think he would be a bad pick at 38, but I'm looking at Roby Javartie

Liger and I talk number 8 for 45 minutes. We don't disagree much. https://youtu.be/DYKWqpdw0EE

I think Mysak getting to 38 is a bit optimistic. I was hoping Reichel or Greig would be there at 38 based on Elite Prospects ratings, but Bob has them in the 20's. For me, I disagree with a lot of it, but not a terrible list other than Jarvis

Joel Freakin Armia was really good before the head injuries, that's my story. In reality, Liiga is set a bit high, as there are a couple too many Liiga players on this list. MacKinnon was outscored by Drouin at age 17, which does terrible things to my model. What the model is doing is trying to contextualize scoring. Players score more when playing with other great players, older players score more than younger players. I try to distill how that context should be allocated, then apply it to the next bunch of players.

As most of you know, I value hockey prospects using an analytical approach. One advantage of this, is that I think I have a good grasp of how this draft compares to other drafts, and where I'm going here, is to say, don't trade the 7th (or so) pick. Trade Mittelstadt?, sure, Cozens? If you gotta, but the contour of this draft is such that trading 7(or so) should be out of the question. Lets look of my rankings over the past decade for first year eligible prospects. 2015 was a very good draft, if you were in the top 3, you have, among forwards McDavid(1), Eichel (3), and Marner (16), but that was all the high end prospects, Arizona took Strome (30), Barzel should have gone next (57), Jansen Harkins (80) (Yeah, you talk to my model about this one). My point here, is that other than McDavid and Eichel, it's a pretty standard spread, about 1 player for every 10 picks, according to my model. Let's look at last year: Hughes (10 or 71 depending on whether you use his usdp (good) or ushl (not so good) stats), Kakko (12), Newhook(34), Turcotte(35), Dorofayev (74 ok my MHL number is a bit high), Cozens (76 for the decade, so a pretty normal number 8 pick). Lets compare these 2 years to 2020. Rossi (6, if you don't believe my model, look at his scoring, he comes up with the same valuation at 17 as Patrick Kane (who is outside of the decade)), next you got Byfield at 8, Jarvis at 13 (look at his scoring vs the rest of his team, and the team being very good). Lafreniere at 18, Stutzle at 19 (hey, it's Germany, how the *** do I know? but he looks fine on video) Perfetti's 23, Holtz is 32. That's not even counting Raymond (It's hard to value 17 year olds playing against adults). As you can see, the top 8 or so players are really good, so this pick doesn't have anything to do with what the 8th overall normally looks like, it's a really good year to pick 7th. There's also a goaltender and a defenseman expected to be drafted before 7. So my argument is that Rossi could be there at 7, Jarvis will likely be there at 7. You can't trade this pick. This is my top 29 17 year olds for the decade, I went as far as Reinhart. All of the players in a men's league you may feel free to take with grain of salt. 1CONNOR MCDAVID OHL 3669 2ALEKSANDER BARKOV Liiga 3317 3JACK EICHEL NCAA 3107 4RYAN STROME OHL 2736 5AUSTON MATTHEWS NLA 2650 6Marco Rossi *** OHL 2565 7JONATHAN DROUIN QMJH 2544 8Quinton Byfield *** OHL 2464 9WILLIAM NYLANDER Allsvens 2417 10Jack Hughes (F)USDP 2413 11KEVIN FIALA SHL 2405 12Kaapo Kakko (F) Liiga 2400 13Seth Jarvis *** WHL 2399 14RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS WHL 2395 15PATRIK LAINE Liiga 2355 16MITCHELL MARNER OHL 2162 17SAM BENNETT OHL 2129 18Alexis Lafrenière *** QMJHL 2050 19Tim Stützle *** DEL 2023 20TOMAS HERTL Czech 2013 21ARTTURI LEHKONEN Liiga 2000 22ELIAS LINDHOLM SHL 1969 23Cole Perfetti *** OHL 1888 24JESSE PULJUJÄRVI Liiga 1871 25JONATHAN HUBERDEAU QMJHL 1867 26JOEL ARMIA Liiga 1850 27ELIAS PETTERSSON Allsvens 1811 28VALERI NICHUSHKIN KHL 1807 29SAM REINHART WHL 1788

A few years ago I built a greenhouse, but this year I decided I didn't need 8' walls, I just needed to keep the groundhogs out, so I broke it down to 3 feet. Growing 3 or 4 kinds of tomatoes, zucchini, honeynut squash, basil, oregano. The blue bucket foreground is goldfish to provide some nitrogen, doesn't work as well as I had hoped, maybe I need more goldfish. Tomatoes started to flower this week.

I don't get the Athletic, so I haven't read it, but I'm fairly certain he is wrong because he makes a conclusion that the data doesn't support. I think the correct conclusion is ligers, that because 62% of the top-six forwards come in the first round, you must use your premium assets on forwards, and try to find defensemen other ways. If you look at drafts from 2005-2015 picks 100-250 Forwards seventeen totaltotal 18.43 seventeen number of picks 412 seventeen games played 7595 eighteen totaltotal 30.01 eighteen number of picks 126 eighteen games played 3781 totaltotal 19.74 nineteen number of picks 82 nineteen games played 1619 picks 100-250 Defensemen seventeen totaltotal 9.91 seventeen number of picks 268 seventeen games played 2656 eightteen totaltotal 27.32 eightteen number of picks 57 eightteen games played 1557 nineteen totaltotal 18.80 nineteen number of picks 51 nineteen games played 959 picks 29-100 forwards seventeen totaltotal 47.26 seventeen number of picks 355 seventeen games played 16777 eighteen totaltotal 68.07 eighteen number of picks 29 eighteen games played 1974 nineteen totaltotal 70.90 nineteen number of picks 21 nineteen games played 1489 picks 29-100 defensemen seventeen totaltotal 31.91 seventeen number of picks 200 seventeen games played 6383 eighteen totaltotal 61.71 eighteen number of picks 7 eighteen games played 432 nineteen totaltotal 56.40 nineteen number of picks 10 nineteen games played 564 So after pick 100, you expect to get 10 NHL games per first time (17 year old) pick. Everything else is much better, forwards are over 18, overagers well above either number. What you need to do is pick more overagers, and sign more undrafted players, because defensive talent isn't as obvious at 17 when most players are drafted.

It was the locust swarms that raised my eyebrow

Hey @Theana745, any thoughts on Dreger's scoop?

Didn't the Sabres sign Cozens a long time ago?

Penn State

I'm sure I'm the only one that thinks this, but Buffalo played very well last night. The puck moved horizontal in the offensive zone plenty of times, didn't go in, but enough opportunities to get maybe 4 goals. The Johansson line looked like a NHL quality line. Yeah, the Eichel line doesn't work unless Jack carries them and the goaltending isn't good enough. One of the things I keep track of charting games is breakaways. Buffalo doesn't give any up. I'm not sure my charts are up to date, but the last one I see was against Columbus 3 weeks ago. Comparatively, Buffalo had 2 breakaways last night, Toronto against LA had 3. I think Sabrespace believes the Buffalo defensemen are good comes from the style of play rather than the quality of play.

Found the Boston mistake, event 255, scoring mistake.

Game 36 is the Philly game, they sent him out with Risto and they gave up a goal, event 145 and 146 http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20192020/PL020540.HTM

The Detroit game is Event 231, it looks like Dahlin came out at the end of the PK and the scorers didn't record it correctly, giving Dahlin a half minute of PK time http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20192020/PL020866.HTM

http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20192020/PL020606.HTM Don't know, haven't figured out what's going wrong yet

Dahlin: shot by opp: team 9,68,26,33,40 opponent 13,86,63,97,25,29 shot by team: team 28,22,26,55,40 opponent 10,20,93,89,8,30 goal against team: team 28,13,26,55,40 opponent 11,14,28,25,9,79 Olofsson in roughly 6 minutes shorthanded has (according to me) only has 4 shots against, 3 went in shot by opp: team 9,68,26,33,40 opponent 13,86,63,97,25,29 goal against team: team 9,68,10,33,40 opponent 9,37,14,22,98,35 goal against team: team 68,13,10,55,40 opponent 37,14,18,22,98,88 goal against team: team 9,68,10,19,40 opponent 36,51,63,28,5,41