rakish

This note from wikipedia's 2016 NHL draft page The Colorado Avalanche’s second-round pick was re-acquired as the result of a trade on June 27, 2015 that sent Buffalo's second-round pick in 2015 to San Jose in exchange for a second-round pick in 2015, Colorado's sixth-round pick in 2017 and this pick.[19] Colorado took Buffalo's 2015 #31, traded down to 2015 #39, and added the 2016 Colorado second round pick. So in the end, Buffalo traded 4 pieces, but Colorado traded down and turned them into 5 pieces. And you're right, if we're counting, there's a third subtracted for McGinn

not to disagree on Sakic, but they also get a second this year.

Let's look at this draft from Tim Murray's point of view. The consensus, I believe, is that their are 9 good players, but two of them Murray doesn't want (Nylander is small, Sergachev is... what's a good word for Russian?). If he gets himself to 4, he'll get a forward, it's almost certain he gets either Tkachuk or Pulju..etc. I think there's some logic to the idea that Edmonton would be just as happy at 8, taking one of the 3 defensemen, but if I'm Edmonton, I take either T or P. If I was Edmonton and wanted to get a defenseman, I would auction the 4th to 6th, 7th, 8th, I'm relatively certain that auction would garner more than Pysyk, I'm guessing McCabe.

It floats around a bit. I've tried schemes to get the software to do it automatically (like by comparing each season to the regression line), but I haven't found anything that works really well. That screws up the 15 and 16 year old numbers, because I got 150 leagues or so. Right now it's: "OHL":580, "WHL":600, "QMJHL":500,

MIKHAIL SERGACHYOV ranked about 9th. I had been worried about his 16th year, but my MHL number was too low, so I'm no longer that worried. OHL at 17 1 DOUGIE HAMILTON OHL 913 2 CAM FOWLER OHL 689 3 RASMUS ANDERSSON OHL 658 4 MIKHAIL SERGACHYOV OHL 657 5 AARON EKBLAD OHL 641 6 MICHAEL DEL ZOTTO OHL 628 7 ZACH BOGOSIAN OHL 628 8 JAKOB CHYCHRUN OHL 605 9 OLLI JUOLEVI OHL 592 MHL at 16 1 RUSHAN RAFIKOV MHL 291 2 MIKHAIL SERGACHYOV MHL 219 3 KRISTAPS ZILE MHL 130 4 VLADISLAV GAVRIKOV MHL 87 5 NIKITA ZADOROV MHL 74 6 ALEXANDER YAKOVENKO MHL 58 7 NIKITA MAKEYEV MHL 33 8 RINAT VALIYEV MHL 24 9 DMITRI ALEXEYEV MHL 12 10 PAVEL RYZHENKOV MHL 11 Sergachyov was listed at 6'2 205, then changed to 6'2 220 on eliteprospects, this is the 74, 205 comparables 1 CAM FOWLER 1084 -OHL 689 -NAHL-USDP 395 17.8 2 ZACH WERENSKI 1060 -NCAA 648 -USDP-USHL 411 17.2 3 NOAH HANIFIN 936 -NCAA 462 -USDP-USDP-USHL 475 17.6 4 ADAM LARSSON 917 -SHL 433 -SHL 484 17.8 5 ZACH BOGOSIAN 917 -OHL 628 -OHL 289 17.2 6 JACK JOHNSON 897 -USDP-NAHL 1191 -NAHL-USDP 302 17.7 7 CODY CECI 890 -OHL 592 -OHL 298 17.7 8 MIKHAIL SERGACHYOV 875 -OHL 657 -MHL 219 17.2 9 JONAS JUNLAND 859 -SuperElit 684 -SuperElit-J18 Elit 176 17.8 10 DMITRI KULIKOV 847 -QMJHL 651 -Russia3 196 17.9 9th isn't a terrible ranking for Sergachyov. He'll probably be on my draft board.

I'm interested in how this plays out.

Luke Kunin gets ranked about 20th, and that seems fair. NCAA at 17 1 JACK EICHEL NCAA 1245 2 PHIL KESSEL NCAA 834 3 JORDAN SCHROEDER NCAA 738 4 COLIN WILSON NCAA 702 5 JONATHAN TOEWS NCAA 696 6 TOM FRITSCHE NCAA 687 7 LUKE KUNIN NCAA 635 8 JON MATSUMOTO NCAA 600 9 TAGE THOMPSON NCAA 600 10 BILL SWEATT NCAA 585 USDP at 16 1 AUSTON MATTHEWS USDP 1088 2 CLAYTON KELLER USDP 791 3 CLAYTON KELLER USDP 759 4 PATRICK KANE USDP 728 5 JACK EICHEL USDP 700 6 PHIL KESSEL USDP 683 7 JOHN ALBERT USDP 633 8 MATTHEW TKACHUK USDP 580 9 PETER MUELLER USDP 498 10 JEREMY MORIN USDP 495 11 COLIN WHITE USDP 479 12 J.T. MILLER USDP 443 13 JEREMY BRACCO USDP 434 14 J.T. COMPHER USDP 428 15 JASON ZUCKER USDP 364 16 NICK SHORE USDP 356 17 EMERSON ETEM USDP 347 18 ROBBIE CZARNIK USDP 347 19 MATT NIETO USDP 338 20 JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK USDP 320 21 JIMMY HAYES USDP 315 22 COLIN WILSON USDP 314 23 ROCCO GRIMALDI USDP 313 24 ROCCO GRIMALDI USDP 300 25 SONNY MILANO USDP 297 26 DREW SHORE USDP 297 27 JORDAN SCHROEDER USDP 297 28 JUSTIN FLOREK USDP 297 29 BRANDON SAAD USDP 295 30 RHETT RAKHSHANI USDP 272 31 BRENDAN WARREN USDP 267 32 CHRISTIAN FISCHER USDP 264 33 LUKE KUNIN USDP 261 USHL at 16 1 AUSTON MATTHEWS USHL 723 2 JACK EICHEL USHL 678 3 KYLE CONNOR USHL 524 4 TAYLOR CAMMARATA USHL 455 5 SETH AMBROZ USHL 390 6 MATTHEW TKACHUK USHL 377 7 STANISLAV GALIEV USHL 356 8 ZEMGUS GIRGENSONS USHL 321 9 MATT NIETO USHL 314 10 KIEFFER BELLOWS USHL 306 11 SAM GAGNER USHL 304 12 J.T. COMPHER USHL 290 13 BRANDON SAAD USHL 273 14 CONNOR HURLEY USHL 271 15 CLAYTON KELLER USHL 254 16 TYLER MOTTE USHL 251 17 NICK SCHMALTZ USHL 241 18 TRAVIS BOYD USHL 233 19 NICK SHORE USHL 228 20 LUKE JOHNSON USHL 215 21 JEREMY BRACCO USHL 208 22 RYAN HARTMAN USHL 198 23 SONNY MILANO USHL 198 24 HUDSON FASCHING USHL 194 25 REID BOUCHER USHL 189 26 NICOLAS KERDILES USHL 186 27 COOPER MARODY USHL 177 28 LUKE KUNIN USHL 171 Kunin is 71, 192 1 SIDNEY CROSBY 3766 -QMJHL 2409 -QMJHL 1356 17.1 2 JOHN TAVARES 1848 -OHL-OHL 2401 -OHL 647 18.0 3 JONATHAN DROUIN 1695 -QMJHL 1438 -QMJHL-QMAAA 257 17.5 4 PHIL KESSEL 1535 -NCAA 834 -NAHL-USDP 701 18.0 5 STEVEN STAMKOS 1527 -OHL 799 -OHL 728 17.6 6 SAM GAGNER 1343 -OHL 1039 -USHL 304 17.1 7 NAIL YAKUPOV 1301 -OHL 717 -OHL 584 17.9 8 BRYAN LITTLE 1165 -OHL 877 -OHL 288 17.8 9 NICHOLAS MERKLEY 1104 -WHL 658 -WHL 446 17.3 10 VLADIMIR TARASENKO 1092 -KHL 774 -KHL 319 17.8 11 JOSH BAILEY 958 -OHL 706 -OHL-OHL 251 18.0 12 TOM FRITSCHE 905 -NCAA 687 -NAHL 218 18.0 13 CARL GRUNDSTRÖM 901 -SHL 539 -SHL-SuperElit 362 17.8 14 JEFF SKINNER 901 -OHL 614 -OHL 287 17.3 15 AXEL HOLMSTRÖM 896 -SuperElit 508 -J18 Elit 388 17.2 16 MATT DUCHENE 889 -OHL 588 -OHL 301 17.7 17 TEEMU PULKKINEN 889 -Liiga-Jr. A SM-liiga 1179 -Jr. A SM-liiga 299 17.7 18 NICKLAS BÄCKSTRÖM 884 -SHL 721 -SHL-SuperElit 164 17.8 19 LUKE KUNIN 851 -NCAA 635 -USDP-USHL 216 17.8

Ollie Juolevi gets ranked between 5 and 12. OHL at 17 1 DOUGIE HAMILTON OHL 913 2 CAM FOWLER OHL 689 3 RASMUS ANDERSSON OHL 658 4 MIKHAIL SERGACHYOV OHL 657 5 AARON EKBLAD OHL 641 6 MICHAEL DEL ZOTTO OHL 628 7 ZACH BOGOSIAN OHL 628 8 JAKOB CHYCHRUN OHL 605 9 OLLI JUOLEVI OHL 592 Jr A sm-liiga at 16 1 OLLI JUOLEVI Jr. A SM-liiga 281 2 VEETI VAINIO Jr. A SM-liiga 229 3 VILLE POKKA Jr. A SM-liiga 226 4 SAMI NIKU Jr. A SM-liiga 214 5 MARKUS NIEMELÄINEN Jr. A SM-liiga 184 6 OLLI MÄÄTTÄ Jr. A SM-liiga 160 7 TARMO REUNANEN Jr. A SM-liiga 123 8 ALEX LINTUNIEMI Jr. A SM-liiga 109 9 SANTERI SAARI Jr. A SM-liiga 100 10 JYRI NIEMI Jr. A SM-liiga 98 Juolevi is 74 183, these are his 17th year and 16th year size comparables: 1 JORDAN SCHMALTZ 948 -USHL 506 -USHL 442 17.9 2 OLLI JUOLEVI 874 -OHL 592 -Jr. A SM-liiga 281 17.4 3 NATHAN BEAULIEU 850 -QMJHL 434 -QMJHL 416 17.8 4 ERIC ROY 802 -WHL 338 -WHL 464 17.9 5 SHEA THEODORE 785 -WHL 491 -WHL 294 17.1 6 STEFAN ELLIOTT 783 -WHL 460 -WHL 322 17.6 7 MICHAEL DOWNING 753 -USHL 464 -USHL 289 17.3 8 DUNCAN SIEMENS 730 -WHL 468 -WHL 261 17.0 9 JACOB TROUBA 725 -USDP-USHL 667 -USDP-USHL 392 17.6 10 DAVID RUNDBLAD 711 -SHL 400 -SuperElit 311 17.9 I would not be surprised if the Sabres took him at 8 or 9, whichever they have.

It seems everyone ranks Alexander Nylander about 7th. The OHL at 17 1 CONNOR MCDAVID OHL 2132 2 JOHN TAVARES OHL 1602 3 RYAN STROME OHL 1350 4 PATRICK KANE OHL 1342 5 TAYLOR HALL OHL 1210 6 SAM GAGNER OHL 1039 7 SAM BENNETT OHL 972 8 TYLER SEGUIN OHL 966 9 DYLAN STROME OHL 924 10 BRYAN LITTLE OHL 877 11 MITCHELL MARNER OHL 869 12 MATTHEW TKACHUK OHL 869 13 JOHN TAVARES OHL 799 14 STEVEN STAMKOS OHL 799 15 NAIL YAKUPOV OHL 717 16 JOSH BAILEY OHL 706 17 LOGAN COUTURE OHL 670 18 BOBBY RYAN OHL 659 19 SHANE PRINCE OHL 659 20 ROBBY FABBRI OHL 658 21 DEVANTE SMITH-PELLY OHL 653 22 MAX DOMI OHL 629 23 JEFF SKINNER OHL 614 24 ALEXANDER NYLANDER OHL 611 SuperElit at 16 1 WILLIAM NYLANDER SuperElit 749 2 FILIP FORSBERG SuperElit 520 3 CARL GRUNDSTRÖM SuperElit 459 4 MIKAEL BACKLUND SuperElit 446 5 FREDRIK FORSBERG SuperElit 428 6 VICTOR RASK SuperElit 378 7 JAKUB VRÁNA SuperElit 342 8 LUCAS WALLMARK SuperElit 331 9 NICKLAS BÄCKSTRÖM SuperElit 327 10 RASMUS ASPLUND SuperElit 326 11 GUSTAV POSSLER SuperElit 313 12 ELIAS LINDHOLM SuperElit 292 13 MIKKEL BØDKER SuperElit 288 14 SEBASTIAN COLLBERG SuperElit 285 15 MAGNUS PÄÄJÄRVI SuperElit 277 16 ALEXANDER NYLANDER SuperElit 274 Nylander is 72, 179 1 JOHN TAVARES 1848 -OHL-OHL 2401 -OHL 647 18.0 2 TAYLOR HALL 1750 -OHL 1210 -OHL 539 17.8 3 JONATHAN DROUIN 1695 -QMJHL 1438 -QMJHL-QMAAA 257 17.5 4 PHIL KESSEL 1535 -NCAA 834 -NAHL-USDP 701 18.0 5 STEVEN STAMKOS 1527 -OHL 799 -OHL 728 17.6 6 RYAN STROME 1523 -OHL 1350 -OHL-OHL 172 17.2 7 KYLE CONNOR 1315 -USHL 791 -USHL 524 17.8 8 WILLIAM NYLANDER 1276 -Allsvenskan-Allsvenskan-SHL 1581 -SuperElit 749 17.4 9 TYLER SEGUIN 1221 -OHL 966 -OHL 255 17.6 10 SAM BENNETT 1221 -OHL 972 -OHL 249 17.2 11 SAM REINHART 1181 -WHL 785 -WHL 395 17.9 12 DERICK BRASSARD 1010 -QMJHL 748 -QMJHL 262 18.0 13 JEREMY MORIN 994 -USDP-NAHL 1072 -NAHL-USDP 458 17.4 14 JOSH BAILEY 958 -OHL 706 -OHL-OHL 251 18.0 15 DANIEL SPRONG 924 -QMJHL 518 -QMJHL 406 17.5 16 TOM WANDELL NaN 0 -SuperElit 210 0.0 17 ANGELO ESPOSITO 923 -QMJHL 369 -QMJHL 554 17.6 18 TOM FRITSCHE 905 -NCAA 687 -NAHL 218 18.0 19 TEEMU PULKKINEN 889 -Liiga-Jr. A SM-liiga 1179 -Jr. A SM-liiga 299 17.7 20 ALEXANDER NYLANDER 885 -OHL 611 -SuperElit 274 17.5 I think Nylander gets chosen around 10th or 12th.

Eliteprospects tells me Dubois is ranked about 5th. The Q at age 17 1 SIDNEY CROSBY QMJHL 2409 2 JONATHAN DROUIN QMJHL 1438 3 JONATHAN HUBERDEAU QMJHL 997 4 NATHAN MACKINNON QMJHL 859 5 JAKUB VORACEK QMJHL 840 6 DERICK BRASSARD QMJHL 748 7 MIKHAIL GRIGORENKO QMJHL 713 8 SEAN COUTURIER QMJHL 670 9 VITALI ABRAMOV QMJHL 650 10 PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS QMJHL 632 The Q at age 16 1 NATHAN MACKINNON QMJHL 769 2 ANGELO ESPOSITO QMJHL 554 3 SEAN COUTURIER QMJHL 504 4 ANTHONY DUCLAIR QMJHL 472 5 DANIEL SPRONG QMJHL 406 6 ADAM ERNE QMJHL 364 7 WILLIAM CARRIER QMJHL 342 8 JORDAN CARON QMJHL 301 9 MARTIN FRK QMJHL 284 10 CHARLES HUDON QMJHL 276 11 TOMAS JURCO QMJHL 275 12 PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS QMJHL 268 He is 74, 205, these are his 17th plus 16th size comparables: 1 CONNOR MCDAVID 2994 -OHL 2132 -OHL 861 17.7 2 ALEKSANDER BARKOV 2084 -Liiga 1304 -Liiga 780 17.0 3 JACK EICHEL 1933 -NCAA 1245 -USDP-USHL 689 17.9 4 ANZE KOPITAR 1410 -SuperElit 794 -Slovenia-Slovenia U20 616 17.1 5 BRAYDEN SCHENN 1259 -WHL 724 -WHL 534 17.1 6 JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK 1057 -USDP-NAHL 1720 -NAHL-USDP-USDP 197 17.4 7 PETER MUELLER 1054 -WHL 482 -USDP-NAHL 573 17.4 8 COLIN WILSON 1050 -NCAA 702 -NAHL-USDP 348 17.9 9 LEON DRAISAITL 995 -WHL 736 -WHL 259 17.9 10 TOMAS HERTL 951 -Czech 711 -Czech U20 240 17.8 11 JESSE PULJUJÄRVI 903 -Champions HL-Liiga 757 -Mestis-Liiga-Jr. A SM-liiga 525 17.4 12 MIKHAIL GRIGORENKO 903 -QMJHL 713 -MHL 190 17.3 13 PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS 901 -QMJHL 632 -QMJHL 268 17.2

MODO! Carl Grundstrom brings a whole new set of comparables, a short heavy from the SHL. Not ranked by anyone except CSS EU, Gundstrom will make my draft board as a possibility for 38, or 39, whichever I got. SHL at 17 1 KEVIN FIALA SHL 943 2 ELIAS LINDHOLM SHL 891 3 NICKLAS BÄCKSTRÖM SHL 721 4 CARL GRUNDSTRÖM SHL 539 5 MIKA ZIBANEJAD SHL 519 6 JACOB JOSEFSON SHL 480 7 WILLIAM NYLANDER SHL 473 8 MAGNUS PÄÄJÄRVI SHL 459 9 PONTUS ÅBERG SHL 455 10 CALLE JÄRNKROK SHL 409 SHL at 16, who plays with adults as a 16-year-old? 1 CARL GRUNDSTRÖM SHL 266 2 ANTON LANDER SHL 141 3 RASMUS ASPLUND SHL 133 4 MAGNUS PÄÄJÄRVI SHL 116 5 NICKLAS BÄCKSTRÖM SHL 0 6 ELIAS LINDHOLM SHL 0 7 FREDRIK FORSBERG SHL 0 SuperElit at 16 1 WILLIAM NYLANDER SuperElit 749 2 FILIP FORSBERG SuperElit 520 3 CARL GRUNDSTRÖM SuperElit 459 4 MIKAEL BACKLUND SuperElit 446 5 FREDRIK FORSBERG SuperElit 428 6 VICTOR RASK SuperElit 378 7 JAKUB VRÁNA SuperElit 342 8 LUCAS WALLMARK SuperElit 331 9 NICKLAS BÄCKSTRÖM SuperElit 327 10 RASMUS ASPLUND SuperElit 326 Grundstrom 71, 194, these are his 17th plus 16th comparables 1 SIDNEY CROSBY 3766 -QMJHL 2409 -QMJHL 1356 17.1 2 JONATHAN DROUIN 1695 -QMJHL 1438 -QMJHL-QMAAA 257 17.5 3 PHIL KESSEL 1535 -NCAA 834 -NAHL-USDP 701 18.0 4 SAM GAGNER 1343 -OHL 1039 -USHL 304 17.1 5 NAIL YAKUPOV 1301 -OHL 717 -OHL 584 17.9 6 BRYAN LITTLE 1165 -OHL 877 -OHL 288 17.8 7 NICHOLAS MERKLEY 1104 -WHL 658 -WHL 446 17.3 8 VLADIMIR TARASENKO 1092 -KHL 774 -KHL 319 17.8 9 JOSH BAILEY 958 -OHL 706 -OHL-OHL 251 18.0 10 CARL GRUNDSTRÖM 901 -SHL 539 -SHL-SuperElit 362 17.8 11 JEFF SKINNER 901 -OHL 614 -OHL 287 17.3 12 AXEL HOLMSTRÖM 896 -SuperElit 508 -J18 Elit 388 17.2 13 MATT DUCHENE 889 -OHL 588 -OHL 301 17.7 14 LUKE KUNIN 851 -NCAA 635 -USDP-USHL 216 17.8 15 MAX FRIBERG 826 -Division 1 543 -Division 1 283 17.8 16 JON MATSUMOTO 800 -NCAA 1000 -NCAA 600 18.9 17 CODY HODGSON 745 -OHL 507 -OHL 237 17.6 18 MITCH WAHL 744 -WHL 522 -WHL 222 17.6 19 MIKKEL BØDKER 716 -OHL 428 -SuperElit 288 17.7 20 NICK SHORE 701 -NCAA 409 -USDP-USHL 292 18.0 Yes, MODO was not good, but you don't blame the 17 year old. OK, maybe the model is fooled because there was no one good on MODO, ok, that's a possibilty. Grundstom looks very comparable to Axel Holmstrom, who wasn't selected until round 7 in 2014. So he may even be on the board for round 3.

I realize you are bored. That, so far, I'm not telling you anything you didn't know. I'm telling you things like Matt Tkachuk is really the 3rd best player in the draft, which is boring. It won't be long before we are talking about players you haven't considered, so be patient. Everyone thinks Puljujarvi is the third best prospect. These are the top 10 Liiga 17-year-olds, which you may remember from the Patrik Laine post. 1 ALEKSANDER BARKOV Liiga 1304 2 MIKAEL GRANLUND Liiga 1055 3 PATRIK LAINE Liiga 878 4 ARTTURI LEHKONEN Liiga 864 5 JOEL ARMIA Liiga 725 6 JESSE PULJUJÄRVI Liiga 672 7 MIKKO RANTANEN Liiga 600 8 TEUVO TERÄVÄINEN Liiga 535 9 ROOPE HINTZ Liiga 534 10 SEBASTIAN AHO Liiga 484 Mestis at 16, not very helpful, do note that Puljujarvi didn't have the wasted 16th year that Laine had. 1 JESSE PULJUJÄRVI Mestis 347 2 PATRIK LAINE Mestis 83 3 OSKAR OSALA Mestis 68 Liiga at 16, hanging with Barkov, this list is really impressive. 1 ALEKSANDER BARKOV Liiga 780 2 JESSE PULJUJÄRVI Liiga 761 3 KASPERI KAPANEN Liiga 480 4 MIKKO RANTANEN Liiga 292 5 ARTTURI LEHKONEN Liiga 276 6 ALEKSI SAARELA Liiga 190 7 JESSE JOENSUU Liiga 62 Jr A Liiga at 16 1 MIKAEL GRANLUND Jr. A SM-liiga 484 2 JESSE PULJUJÄRVI Jr. A SM-liiga 468 3 ARTTURI LEHKONEN Jr. A SM-liiga 449 4 SEBASTIAN AHO Jr. A SM-liiga 333 5 ROOPE HINTZ Jr. A SM-liiga 316 6 TEEMU PULKKINEN Jr. A SM-liiga 299 7 ALEKSI SAARELA Jr. A SM-liiga 258 8 JESSE JOENSUU Jr. A SM-liiga 242 9 MIIKKA SALOMÄKI Jr. A SM-liiga 232 10 MIKKO RANTANEN Jr. A SM-liiga 222 Puljujarvi is 75, 201, these are his comparables at age 17. 1 ALEKSANDER BARKOV Liiga 1304 2 JACK EICHEL NCAA 1245 3 JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK NAHL 953 4 PATRIK LAINE Liiga 878 5 ANZE KOPITAR SuperElit 794 6 JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK USDP 766 7 AUSTON MATTHEWS NLA 760 8 JOEL ARMIA Liiga 725 9 MIKHAIL GRIGORENKO QMJHL 713 10 TOMAS HERTL Czech 711 11 JESSE PULJUJÄRVI Liiga 672 12 SEAN COUTURIER QMJHL 670 13 MAXIM KITSYN MHL 636 14 PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS QMJHL 632 15 MIKKO RANTANEN Liiga 600 16 NIKOLAI PROKHORKIN MHL 546 17 CAMERON MORRISON USHL 513 18 YEVGENI SVECHNIKOV QMJHL 511 19 CHRISTOFER LÖFBERG SuperElit 510 20 VALERI NICHUSHKIN KHL 500 Ought to be picked 3rd, 4th, or 5th or so, what more to be said? He'll make my draft board because he'll be a solid pick at 8 or 9, whichever I got, if everyone I like more is gone.

Eliteprospects tells me Jakob Chychrun is ranked between 4th to 10th, I think I'm toward the high end. 4th to 10th is pretty much the sweet spot for a Sabre pick at 8 or 9. An OHL defenseman. OHL at 17 1 DOUGIE HAMILTON OHL 913 2 CAM FOWLER OHL 689 3 RASMUS ANDERSSON OHL 658 4 MIKHAIL SERGACHYOV OHL 657 5 AARON EKBLAD OHL 641 6 MICHAEL DEL ZOTTO OHL 628 7 ZACH BOGOSIAN OHL 628 8 JAKOB CHYCHRUN OHL 605 9 OLLI JUOLEVI OHL 592 10 CODY CECI OHL 592 11 DREW DOUGHTY OHL 545 OHL at 16 1 DREW DOUGHTY OHL 719 2 ALEX PIETRANGELO OHL 562 3 MICHAEL DEL ZOTTO OHL 534 4 JAKOB CHYCHRUN OHL 443 5 AARON EKBLAD OHL 402 6 NICK EBERT OHL 308 7 SEAN DAY OHL 301 8 CODY CECI OHL 298 9 ZACH BOGOSIAN OHL 289 10 MARK KATIC OHL 271 Chychrun is 74, 194, these are his 17th year plus 16th year comparibles. 1 CAM FOWLER 1084 -OHL 689 -NAHL-USDP 395 17.8 2 JAKOB CHYCHRUN 1048 -OHL 605 -OHL 443 17.5 3 JORDAN SCHMALTZ 948 -USHL 506 -USHL 442 17.9 4 NOAH HANIFIN 936 -NCAA 462 -USDP-USDP-USHL 475 17.6 5 ADAM LARSSON 917 -SHL 433 -SHL 484 17.8 6 ZACH BOGOSIAN 917 -OHL 628 -OHL 289 17.2 7 JACK JOHNSON 897 -USDP-NAHL 1191 -NAHL-USDP 302 17.7 8 ESA LINDELL 868 -Jr. A SM-liiga 574 -Jr. B SM-sarja 294 17.3 9 JONAS JUNLAND 859 -SuperElit 684 -SuperElit-J18 Elit 176 17.8 10 DMITRI KULIKOV 847 -QMJHL 651 -Russia3 196 17.9 I think Chychrun is the first defenseman picked, right around pick 3, or 4, or 5. If both Chychrun and Keller are there at 8, or 9? I gotta think about that. Neither?

Jake Bean is our first defenseman. The model does poorly with defensemen, but if you look at the history of Central Scouting, the eye-test is even worse. If I was really drafting, I would draft more defensemen than forwards, just because I don't really know. Eliteprospects tells me that everyone ranks him at about 15th, so he ought to be there at 8 or 9, whichever I have. And by the way, I love that I have his stats back to 13 years old. OK, WHL at 17, this is why I was so excited to get Pilon in the 4th round last draft and should have taken Martin the year before. 1 IVAN PROVOROV WHL 812 2 MORGAN RIELLY WHL 720 3 NOAH JUULSEN WHL 606 4 SETH JONES WHL 600 5 JOE MORROW WHL 563 6 JAKE BEAN WHL 559 7 RYAN PILON WHL 527 8 BRYCEN MARTIN WHL 500 9 SHEA THEODORE WHL 491 10 DERRICK POULIOT WHL 487 WHL at 16, Ok, defensemen at 16 probably doesn't mean anything 1 JAKE BEAN WHL 543 2 ERIC ROY WHL 464 3 RYAN PULOCK WHL 432 4 GRIFFIN REINHART WHL 360 5 RYAN MURRAY WHL 333 6 BRYCEN MARTIN WHL 322 7 STEFAN ELLIOTT WHL 322 8 KALE CLAGUE WHL 311 9 SHEA THEODORE WHL 294 10 DAVID MUSIL WHL 292 Bean is 73, 172, which is, of course, light for a defenseman. These are his comparables at age 17 added to age 16. 1 JAKE BEAN 1102 -WHL 559 -WHL 543 17.0 2 NATHAN BEAULIEU 850 -QMJHL 434 -QMJHL 416 17.8 3 SHEA THEODORE 785 -WHL 491 -WHL 294 17.1 4 VEETI VAINIO 704 -Jr. A SM-liiga 475 -Jr. A SM-liiga 229 17.2 5 NOAH JUULSEN 699 -WHL 606 -WHL 93 17.5 6 JOHN MOORE 627 -USHL 431 -USHL 196 17.8 7 BOBBY SANGUINETTI 626 -OHL 449 -OHL 177 17.5 8 KALE CLAGUE 588 -WHL 277 -WHL 311 17.3 9 MAX LAJOIE 570 -WHL 315 -WHL 255 17.9 10 MATTIAS BÄCKMAN 533 -SuperElit 400 -SuperElit 133 18.0 I think I agree with the eye-test people, you take Bean about pick 15 or 20, certainly not someone I'm looking at at 8, or 9.

The model and the eye-test people agree on the next one, Matt Tkachuk should go about fourth, and he should go about fourth. There is little danger I need to worry about him, since, unless things change, I pick 8th or 9th, I forget which, but let's look at some comparisons none-the-less. London Knights pedigree, always a good thing, let's look at the best of the OHL as 17 year olds, this, of course, looks like an all-star team. 1 CONNOR MCDAVID OHL 2132 2 JOHN TAVARES OHL 1602 3 RYAN STROME OHL 1350 4 PATRICK KANE OHL 1342 5 TAYLOR HALL OHL 1210 6 SAM GAGNER OHL 1039 7 SAM BENNETT OHL 972 8 TYLER SEGUIN OHL 966 9 DYLAN STROME OHL 924 10 BRYAN LITTLE OHL 877 11 MITCHELL MARNER OHL 869 12 MATTHEW TKACHUK OHL 869 13 JOHN TAVARES OHL 799 14 STEVEN STAMKOS OHL 799 15 NAIL YAKUPOV OHL 717 16 JOSH BAILEY OHL 706 17 LOGAN COUTURE OHL 670 18 BOBBY RYAN OHL 659 19 SHANE PRINCE OHL 659 20 ROBBY FABBRI OHL 658 21 DEVANTE SMITH-PELLY OHL 653 USDP at 16, I still haven't fixed the USDP-17 bug, so this is why Keller shows up twice. 1 AUSTON MATTHEWS USDP 1088 2 CLAYTON KELLER USDP 791 3 CLAYTON KELLER USDP 759 4 PATRICK KANE USDP 728 5 JACK EICHEL USDP 700 6 PHIL KESSEL USDP 683 7 JOHN ALBERT USDP 633 8 MATTHEW TKACHUK USDP 580 9 PETER MUELLER USDP 498 10 JEREMY MORIN USDP 495 USHL at 16 1 AUSTON MATTHEWS USHL 723 2 JACK EICHEL USHL 678 3 KYLE CONNOR USHL 524 4 TAYLOR CAMMARATA USHL 455 5 SETH AMBROZ USHL 390 6 MATTHEW TKACHUK USHL 377 7 STANISLAV GALIEV USHL 356 8 ZEMGUS GIRGENSONS USHL 321 9 MATT NIETO USHL 314 10 KIEFFER BELLOWS USHL 306 Tkuchuk is 73, 194, these are his comparables at age 17: 1 CONNOR MCDAVID OHL 2132 2 JACK EICHEL NCAA 1245 3 TAYLOR HALL OHL 1210 4 ELIAS LINDHOLM SHL 891 5 MATTHEW TKACHUK OHL 869 6 NATHAN MACKINNON QMJHL 859 7 JAKUB VORACEK QMJHL 840 8 PHIL KESSEL NCAA 834 9 SAM REINHART WHL 785 So this post is really boring. Tkachuk is really good, and everyone knows it.

this is sort of interesting http://www.theroot.com/articles/culture/2012/10/where_the_word_ratchet_came_from/ this is better http://latinrapper.com/blogs/?p=8810 and this, but when in metafilter, always ignore empath http://ask.metafilter.com/241931/Ratchet

I'm just trying to put out the information I have at this point, and let you value them yourself. I think at 8, or is it 9, the Sabres could rationally go defenseman, but Keller will score in the NHL. I'll be surprised to find someone I like more. One more list for Keller. Overall, I'm comparing points scored to the rest of the team to get a contextual scoring. In the Stamkos thread yesterday, looking at contextual scoring for Stamkos makes his future look, as WildCard said, not pretty. So let's look at those that did outscore their team by a quarter point, Keller didn't quite make half a point. So these are 17th year outscored teammates by quarter point, the top 34: 1 SIDNEY CROSBY QMJHL 2409 2 CONNOR MCDAVID OHL 2132 3 JOHN TAVARES OHL 1602 4 JONATHAN DROUIN QMJHL 1438 5 RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS WHL 1363 6 RYAN STROME OHL 1350 7 PATRICK KANE OHL 1342 8 JACK EICHEL NCAA 1245 9 TAYLOR HALL OHL 1210 10 SAM BENNETT OHL 972 11 TYLER SEGUIN OHL 966 12 JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK NAHL 953 13 CLAYTON KELLER USDP 913 14 TEEMU PULKKINEN Jr. A SM-liiga 894 15 BRYAN LITTLE OHL 877 16 WILLIAM NYLANDER Allsvenskan 875 17 JAKUB VORACEK QMJHL 840 18 JOHN TAVARES OHL 799 19 KYLE CONNOR USHL 791 20 SAM REINHART WHL 785 21 JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK USDP 766 22 DERICK BRASSARD QMJHL 748 23 LEON DRAISAITL WHL 736 24 NAIL YAKUPOV OHL 717 25 NIKITA FILATOV Russia3 674 26 CHAD RAU USHL 654 27 MAXIM KITSYN MHL 636 28 JADEN SCHWARTZ USHL 633 29 TYLER ENNIS WHL 618 30 SERGEI KOROSTIN Russia3 603 31 BRAYDEN POINT WHL 601 32 COREY TROPP USHL 589 33 COOPER MARODY USHL 541 34 ZEMGUS GIRGENSONS USHL 524 Notice how few regrets there are on this list, also note how many top 3 picks are here. Whereas the 6'4" list was stuffed with regret. Tavares did it on two teams in the same season. Keller also did it at 16, but I got to fix the USDP-18 vs USDP-17 confusion.

I made liiga numbers a bit lower, USDP a little lower, and USHL a little higher. Today we'll look at Clayton Keller. Keller had an excellent 16th year. Keller had an excellent 17th year. He outscored the second highest scoring teammate on USDP by almost half a point a game. No wonder the model loves him. These are the best USDP players at 17. There aren't many, as many, like Matthews and Eichel became too old, it depends when your birthday falls. 1 CLAYTON KELLER USDP 913 2 JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK USDP 766 3 SONNY MILANO USDP 628 4 JEREMY BRACCO USDP 601 5 JERRY D'AMIGO USDP 550 6 KIEFFER BELLOWS USDP 498 7 ROCCO GRIMALDI USDP 487 8 J.T. COMPHER USDP 471 9 ALEX TUCH USDP 444 10 BILL ARNOLD USDP 408 USDP at 16 1 AUSTON MATTHEWS USDP 1088 2 CLAYTON KELLER USDP 791 3 CLAYTON KELLER USDP 759 4 PATRICK KANE USDP 728 5 JACK EICHEL USDP 700 6 PHIL KESSEL USDP 683 7 JOHN ALBERT USDP 633 8 MATTHEW TKACHUK USDP 580 9 PETER MUELLER USDP 498 10 JEREMY MORIN USDP 495 I found a bug. The software calls the league USDP, it doesn't differentiate between USDP-17 and USDP-18, that's why Keller shows up twice, so one of them doesn't count. USHL at 17 1 KYLE CONNOR USHL 791 2 CLAYTON KELLER USHL 737 3 CHAD RAU USHL 654 4 JADEN SCHWARTZ USHL 633 5 COREY TROPP USHL 589 6 COOPER MARODY USHL 541 7 TAYLOR CAMMARATA USHL 529 8 ZEMGUS GIRGENSONS USHL 524 9 CAMERON MORRISON USHL 513 10 SONNY MILANO USHL 509 USHL at 16 1 AUSTON MATTHEWS USHL 723 2 JACK EICHEL USHL 678 3 KYLE CONNOR USHL 524 4 TAYLOR CAMMARATA USHL 455 5 SETH AMBROZ USHL 390 6 MATTHEW TKACHUK USHL 377 7 STANISLAV GALIEV USHL 356 8 ZEMGUS GIRGENSONS USHL 321 9 MATT NIETO USHL 314 10 KIEFFER BELLOWS USHL 306 11 SAM GAGNER USHL 304 12 J.T. COMPHER USHL 290 13 BRANDON SAAD USHL 273 14 CONNOR HURLEY USHL 271 15 CLAYTON KELLER USHL 254 Keller is 70, 170. These are the players (2005-2016) within an inch and within 10 pounds. Age 17 1 PATRICK KANE OHL 1342 2 MIKAEL GRANLUND Liiga 1055 3 KEVIN FIALA SHL 943 4 CLAYTON KELLER USDP 913 5 EVANDER KANE WHL 897 6 WILLIAM NYLANDER Allsvenskan 875 7 MITCHELL MARNER OHL 869 8 ARTTURI LEHKONEN Liiga 864 9 JORDAN SCHROEDER NCAA 738 10 CLAYTON KELLER USHL 737 Age 16 - One of these is USDP-17, the other is USDP-18. 1 CLAYTON KELLER USDP 791 2 PATRICK KANE NAHL 759 3 CLAYTON KELLER USDP 759 4 WILLIAM NYLANDER SuperElit 749 5 PATRICK KANE USDP 728 6 JOHN ALBERT USDP 633 7 SVEN ANDRIGHETTO Elite Novizen 582 8 MIKAEL GRANLUND Jr. A SM-liiga 484 9 JAN MURSAK Slovenia 473 10 ANTHONY DUCLAIR QMJHL 472 It's likely he's on the board when the Sabres pick.

Y is my raw valuation. rule of thumb is that 1000 is an NHL player. I screwed up and cropped off the age, which is the x axis, I'll post it again

Liger helped with the comparables.

In an undecided order, next we look at Patrik Laine. In my draft contest, we'll return to using Buffalo's picks this year, so I likely have pick 8 or 9, I forget which. I don't really need to care about Laine, he's going first, or second, or possibly third, but certainly won't linger. Laine had a really good year as a 17 year old, but totally sucked as a 16 year old. One of those years is not representative. My current belief is that it's best to add the two numbers together, so if you want to build a narrative that 16 doesn't matter, you are on your own. First we'll look at the best of age 17, remembering that normally we factor in 16 year old, so this looks at Laine in the best light. 1 SIDNEY CROSBY QMJHL 2409 2 CONNOR MCDAVID OHL 2132 3 JOHN TAVARES OHL 1602 4 JONATHAN DROUIN QMJHL 1438 5 ALEKSANDER BARKOV Liiga 1413 6 RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS WHL 1363 7 RYAN STROME OHL 1350 8 PATRICK KANE OHL 1342 9 JACK EICHEL NCAA 1245 10 TAYLOR HALL OHL 1210 11 MIKAEL GRANLUND Liiga 1143 12 SAM GAGNER OHL 1039 13 JONATHAN HUBERDEAU QMJHL 997 14 CLAYTON KELLER USDP 996 15 SAM BENNETT OHL 972 16 TYLER SEGUIN OHL 966 17 JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK NAHL 953 18 PATRIK LAINE Liiga 951 Also note that Liiga (Granlund at 11th?) is over-represented, so, if anything, Laine's 2015 year is overvalued in this list. Next we will look at Liiga. This is a combined 17 and 16. Normally numbers double each year, so Laine's 951 at 17 ought to have a 475 at 16, and a 240 at 15. He had roughly a 240 at 15, but an 83 at 16. So if you want to buy the narrative that his 16 year wasn't representative, he lost about 400 points from that year. Though be careful ignoring data. Liiga and Liiga-Jr.A SM-liiga, 16 and 17 3 ALEKSANDER BARKOV 2258 -Liiga 1413 -Liiga 845 17.0 12 MIKAEL GRANLUND 1626 -Liiga 1143 -Jr. A SM-liiga 484 17.6 21 ARTTURI LEHKONEN 1310 -Liiga 936 -Liiga-Jr. A SM-liiga 374 17.2 43 PATRIK LAINE 1035 -Liiga 951 -Mestis 83 17.4 49 JOEL ARMIA 973 -Liiga 785 -Jr. A SM-liiga 188 17.3 52 JESSE PULJUJÄRVI 953 -Champions HL-Liiga 813 -Mestis-Liiga-Jr. A SM-liiga 546 17.4 66 TEEMU PULKKINEN 900 -Liiga-Jr. A SM-liiga 1202 -Jr. A SM-liiga 299 17.7 68 ROOPE HINTZ 895 -Liiga 579 -Jr. A SM-liiga 316 17.8 84 SEBASTIAN AHO 857 -Liiga 524 -Jr. A SM-liiga 333 17.1 93 MIKKO RANTANEN 831 -Liiga 585 -Liiga-Jr. A SM-liiga 246 17.9 124 KASPERI KAPANEN 755 -Liiga 426 -Liiga-Jr. A SM-liiga 329 17.1 177 TEUVO TERÄVÄINEN 673 -Liiga-Jr. A SM-liiga 1011 -Jr. A SM-liiga 167 17.0 182 TONI RAJALA 665 -Liiga-Jr. A SM-liiga 468 -Jr. A SM-liiga-Jr. B SM-sarja 431 17.5 So even if you buy into the narrative of a lost year at 16, and add 400 points to his ranking, he's still not near Sasha Barkov, who was playing Liiga 16 months earlier than Laine. Next we will look at the prospects near in size to Laine's 76 209. 1 ANZE KOPITAR 1410 -SuperElit 794 -Slovenia-Slovenia U20 616 17.1 2 JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK 1105 -USDP-NAHL 1823 -NAHL-USDP-USDP 194 17.4 3 PATRIK LAINE 1035 -Liiga 951 -Mestis 83 17.4 4 MIKHAIL GRIGORENKO 903 -QMJHL 713 -MHL 190 17.3 5 PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS 901 -QMJHL 632 -QMJHL 268 17.2 6 MIKKO RANTANEN 831 -Liiga 585 -Liiga-Jr. A SM-liiga 246 17.9 7 KYLE BEACH 809 -WHL 336 -WHL 473 17.7 8 RYAN STOA 720 -USDP-NAHL 625 -NAHL-USDP 408 17.4 9 JULIEN GAUTHIER 699 -QMJHL 443 -QMJHL 255 17.9 10 HENRIK BJÖRKLUND 699 -Division 1 442 -Division 1-J18 Allsvenskan-J18 Elit 257 18.0 11 PAUL BITTNER 642 -WHL 320 -WHL 322 17.9 12 CHRISTOFER LÖFBERG 641 -SuperElit 510 -SuperElit 131 17.9 13 PAVEL ZACHA 620 -OHL 298 -Czech2-Czech 322 17.4 14 GREG NEMISZ 619 -OHL 440 -OHL 179 17.3 15 JOHAN RYNO 591 -Division 1 673 -Division 1 509 18.3 16 FILIP AHL 584 -SHL-SuperElit 709 -SuperElit 229 17.3 17 JORDAN STAAL 560 -OHL 447 -OHL 113 17.0 18 RADEK SMOLENAK 553 -OHL 320 -Czech U20 233 17.8 19 ALEX TUCH 543 -USDP-USHL 849 -USDP-USHL 119 17.4 20 BRENDAN PERLINI 506 -OHL 454 -OHL-OHL 51 17.4 21 ZACK KASSIAN 501 -OHL 383 -OHL 118 17.6 My theory on why there are so many busts in this list is that it's difficult to skate fast enough at this size. That won't stop people from drafting them. In his defense, Laine is above all the busts, it's not like you wanted to draft Zacha 4th or anything like that. My general conclusion would be that if I'm picking second, I hope I find someone I like more. We'll look at the options over the next week, but for now, it's Matthews Laine

It's a history of technology course? (ignore me, I'm just trolling Blue)

The problem with R is that you have to use it all the time, if you stop using it, then nothing makes any sense in 6 months. I use 4 things. Ruby to scrape the data, JSON to hold the data, javascript to code, and D3 to display.

"every team uses it": analytics is a broad term. Both me and Blue have stated that if we ran an organization, we would hire a bunch of people to watch hockey to obtain data. He thinks there's something to be gained by scraping the reports that the NHL produces, I generally don't. What I'm trying to say is that there's a wide spectrum of 'analytics,' I think Anaheim and Chicago do more, Pittsburgh and Minnesota do some, Calgary and Colorado do none. I might be totally wrong about Pittsburgh though, they may be doing really good work that's showing up on the ice, hard to tell. working was a poorly chosen word, studying yes, early mis-users would be the better word than forefront.

In February, 538 had an article about why the Canadian teams weren't going to make the playoffs. Their answer was, basically, luck. I've been thinking about writing a reply to that article because the question isn't best framed as Canadian vs American, but as old-school vs. analytical (you wouldn't think a website about data would miss this). Canada teams generally have more old-school vision, and it's killing them. It's not just Canada though, New Jersey is old-school, Colorado is old-school. But your question, smell, (I use lower case since you made fun of my food porn, now the phrase 'Judge smell cleared the courtroom' makes more sense), is more difficult to answer because what Pittsburgh is using is black box. They're not going to tell you what they know, and how they know it. Why I like working in the draft is that I can tell who knows what, and Pittsburgh generally sucks at it. Maybe with their new people they will be good. Toronto is suddenly very good, New Jersey is very bad. That doesn't mean 'analytics are good,' good analytics are good. One of the teams on the forefront of analytics was the Buffalo Sabres. Regier started trading for high Corsi players, Ruff got Stafford to shoot more, on the belief that since all shooting percentage was luck, it didn't matter where you shot from, it only mattered that you took more shots. This thinking is, and was, ridiculous, and it got Regier and Ruff eventually fired, because Stafford can't score from where Ruff was getting him to shoot from. Hockey is analytical but it's also knuckle-dragging, Regier put together a team with Luke Adam as the muscle, and that gets your goaltender run. Regier also used analytics in drafting. They decided at some point that, Czech's, I think it was, were better draft picks. So each draft Regier would pick a Czech in the 6th round or so. While there is a tiny bit of truth to the assertion that Czech's are good draft picks, it doesn't mean you can indiscriminately pick Czechs, again it was Regier using analytics terribly.