rakish

This is my updated draft board, I added where draftsite.com had them ranked. I added a couple at the bottom in case I run out of players, but I think 22 will be plenty. Matthews 1 Puljujarvi 4 Tkuchuk 5 Keller 16 Chychrun 6 Bean 13 Sergachyov 10 Gundstrom 29 Morrison 42 Jonathan Dahlén 181 Burke 132 Bernhardt 136 Lucas Johansen 53 Girard 43 Alexeyev 154 Moverare 52 Pethrus unranked Bratt 124 Shvyryov unranked OTTO KOIVULA unranked HENRIK BORGSTRÖM 116 KRISTAPS ZILE unranked If you want to get in on rakii's draft competition, put together a draft list, we're going to use the Sabre's picks this year. I only need about 30 because many of my players don't get drafted, but McKenzie had 75 on his list and missed a couple rounds near the end of last years draft. So how many you need on your list depends. Tim Murray will play, I have Pronman's rankings, he did 100 this year, I expect McKenzie and The Hockey News have enough of a ranking to do an entire draft, but I haven't looked yet.

I'm going to try to finish this tonight, I may come back and edit the draft board a little, as I haven't looked at all 600 propects eliteprospects has on their list. Logan Brown is rated about 9th. OHL at 17: 45-55 45 STEVE DOWNIE OHL 475 46 DANTE SALITURO OHL 474 47 STEFAN LEGEIN OHL 471 48 ZACK TORQUATO OHL 467 49 JOEY HISHON OHL 464 50 BRENDAN GAUNCE OHL 464 51 LOGAN BROWN OHL 458 52 BRENDAN PERLINI OHL 454 53 GREG MCKEGG OHL 453 54 CHRIS TERRY OHL 449 55 JORDAN STAAL OHL 447 OHL at 16: 65-75 65 RYAN STROME OHL 180 66 DEVANTE SMITH-PELLY OHL 180 67 BO HORVAT OHL 179 68 GREG NEMISZ OHL 179 69 LOGAN BROWN OHL 178 70 BLAKE SPEERS OHL 168 71 NATHAN MOON OHL 166 72 RYAN STROME OHL 165 73 BRETT MACLEAN OHL 164 74 TAYLOR RADDYSH OHL 162 75 TIM GETTINGER OHL 161 Brown is 78, 220, there aren't a lot of forwards drafted who are this big, though he is the best of this bunch. 1 LOGAN BROWN 636 -OHL 458 -OHL 178 17.5 2 JOHAN RYNO 591 -Division 1 673 -Division 1 509 18.3 3 JORDAN GREENWAY 438 -USDP-USHL 467 -USDP-USHL 205 17.6 4 RADOVAN BONDRA 214 -Slovakia-Slovakia2 336 -Slovakia2 46 17.6 5 GUSTAV OLHAVER 150 -SuperElit-J18 Elit 176 -J18 Allsvenskan-J18 Elit 62 17.2 6 JUSTIN AUGER 99 -OHL 136 -OHL 62 18.3 7 JOE FINLEY 69 -USHL 69 0 17.2 8 MATT USTASKI 35 -BCHL 102 -BCHL 37 19.3 For me, 18th?, 20th? Out of the question at 8 or 9, will be gone at 38 or 39. GERMAN RUBTSOV is ranked about 15th. MHL at 17 1 MAXIM KITSYN MHL 895 2 NIKOLAI PROKHORKIN MHL 655 3 NIKITA GUSEV MHL 627 4 BOGDAN YAKIMOV MHL 562 5 VLADIMIR TKACHYOV MHL 547 6 NIKITA KUCHEROV MHL 529 7 DENIS GURYANOV MHL 517 8 GERMAN RUBTSOV MHL 496 9 YEVGENI MITYAKIN MHL 477 10 IVAN KOSORENKOV MHL 393 11 PAVEL KRASKOVSKY MHL 384 12 ROMAN KRIKUNENKO MHL 372 13 DENIS ALEXEYEV MHL 370 14 PAVEL BUCHNEVICH MHL 368 15 ALEXANDER KADEYKIN MHL 365 MHL at 16 1 PAVEL BUCHNEVICH MHL 623 2 NIKITA KUCHEROV MHL 385 3 YEVGENI SVECHNIKOV MHL 364 4 VITALI ABRAMOV MHL 325 5 YAKOV TRENIN MHL 321 6 ALEXANDER KHOKHLACHEV MHL 288 7 YEVGENI MITYAKIN MHL 261 8 DENIS ALEXEYEV MHL 257 9 VLADIMIR TKACHYOV MHL 255 10 PAVEL KARNAUKHOV MHL 254 11 MIKHAIL GRIGORENKO MHL 253 12 NIKOLAI PROKHORKIN MHL 235 13 KIRILL KAPRIZOV MHL 209 14 BOGDAN YAKIMOV MHL 183 15 DMITRI SOKOLOV MHL 182 16 VLADISLAV KAMENEV MHL 173 17 DENIS GURYANOV MHL 167 18 ALEXANDER KADEYKIN MHL 145 19 GERMAN RUBTSOV MHL 125 20 IGOR SHVYRYOV MHL 116 73 174 35 IVAN BARBASHYOV 698 -QMJHL 436 -QMJHL 262 17.8 36 MARC-OLIVIER ROY 636 -QMJHL 437 -QMJHL 199 17.9 37 NIKITA SCHERBAK 632 -WHL 554 -MHL 77 17.7 38 KYLE TURRIS 622 -BCHL 481 -BCHL 142 17.1 39 GERMAN RUBTSOV 622 -MHL 496 -MHL 125 17.2 40 JARED MCCANN 616 -OHL 433 -OHL 183 17.3 41 JAKE DEBRUSK 616 -WHL 486 -WHL 130 17.9 42 NATHAN NOEL 613 -QMJHL 413 -QMJHL 199 17.2 43 SIMON STRANSKY 601 -WHL 370 -WHL 232 17.7 44 TIM BOZON 596 -WHL 462 -Elite Jr. A 134 17.5 45 SPENCER MACHACEK 591 -WHL 360 -WHL 231 17.9 DENIS ALEXEYEV is rated 65th by EU Central Scouting, unranked at draftsite.com MHL at 17 1 MAXIM KITSYN MHL 895 2 NIKOLAI PROKHORKIN MHL 655 3 NIKITA GUSEV MHL 627 4 BOGDAN YAKIMOV MHL 562 5 VLADIMIR TKACHYOV MHL 547 6 NIKITA KUCHEROV MHL 529 7 DENIS GURYANOV MHL 517 8 GERMAN RUBTSOV MHL 496 9 YEVGENI MITYAKIN MHL 477 10 IVAN KOSORENKOV MHL 393 11 PAVEL KRASKOVSKY MHL 384 12 ROMAN KRIKUNENKO MHL 372 13 DENIS ALEXEYEV MHL 370 14 PAVEL BUCHNEVICH MHL 368 15 ALEXANDER KADEYKIN MHL 365 1 PAVEL BUCHNEVICH MHL 623 2 NIKITA KUCHEROV MHL 385 3 YEVGENI SVECHNIKOV MHL 364 4 VITALI ABRAMOV MHL 325 5 YAKOV TRENIN MHL 321 6 ALEXANDER KHOKHLACHEV MHL 288 7 YEVGENI MITYAKIN MHL 261 8 DENIS ALEXEYEV MHL 257 9 VLADIMIR TKACHYOV MHL 255 10 PAVEL KARNAUKHOV MHL 254 11 MIKHAIL GRIGORENKO MHL 253 12 NIKOLAI PROKHORKIN MHL 235 13 KIRILL KAPRIZOV MHL 209 14 BOGDAN YAKIMOV MHL 183 15 DMITRI SOKOLOV MHL 182 16 VLADISLAV KAMENEV MHL 173 17 DENIS GURYANOV MHL 167 18 ALEXANDER KADEYKIN MHL 145 19 GERMAN RUBTSOV MHL 125 20 IGOR SHVYRYOV MHL 116 72 192 50 LARS ELLER 664 -SuperElit 553 -SuperElit 111 17.4 51 JERRY D'AMIGO 663 -NAHL-USDP 1059 -NAHL-USDP 134 17.6 52 TYLER BENSON 652 -WHL 345 -WHL 307 17.5 53 JOHN MCFARLAND 645 -OHL 279 -OHL 366 17.5 54 PERTTU LINDGREN 642 -Jr. A SM-liiga 356 -Jr. B SM-sarja 286 17.1 55 IGOR SHVYRYOV 641 -MHL 257 -MHL-Russia U17 384 17.2 56 DENIS ALEXEYEV 626 -MHL 370 -MHL 257 18.0 57 FILIP CHLAPÍK 615 -QMJHL 361 -Czech U20 254 17.3 58 DMITRIJ JASKIN 613 -Czech 364 -Czech U20-Czech U18 249 17.5 59 JUSTIN ABDELKADER 607 -USHL 322 -USHS 286 17.6 60 RICKARD RAKELL 604 -OHL 328 -J18 Allsvenskan-J18 Elit 276 17.4 Alexeyev is unranked? He's heavy enough, I think I got a spare 7th around. IGOR SHVYRYOV ranked 23 CSS EU, unranked at draftsite.com MHL at 17 20 ALEXANDER DERGACHYOV MHL 291 21 ANTON SLEPYSHEV MHL 288 22 YEGOR KORSHKOV MHL 284 23 ARTUR KAYUMOV MHL 270 24 IGOR SHVYRYOV MHL 257 25 YEGOR BABENKO MHL 254 26 VLADISLAV KAMENEV MHL 246 27 IVAN KOSORENKOV MHL 214 28 MIKHAIL MESHCHERYAKOV MHL 211 29 NIKITA BASHKIROV MHL 196 30 ARTYOM IVANYUZHENKOV MHL 189 MHL at 16 15 DMITRI SOKOLOV MHL 182 16 VLADISLAV KAMENEV MHL 173 17 DENIS GURYANOV MHL 167 18 ALEXANDER KADEYKIN MHL 145 19 GERMAN RUBTSOV MHL 125 20 IGOR SHVYRYOV MHL 116 21 ALEXANDER DERGACHYOV MHL 110 22 ARTYOM IVANYUZHENKOV MHL 110 23 ROMAN KRIKUNENKO MHL 108 24 ARTUR KAYUMOV MHL 106 25 DMITRI BUINITSKY MHL 81 Russia U17 at 16 1 IGOR SHVYRYOV Russia U17 294 2 MAXIM SHALUNOV Russia U17 208 3 VITALI ABRAMOV Russia U17 161 4 NIKITA O. POPUGAYEV Russia U17 157 5 DENIS ALEXEYEV Russia U17 154 6 ROMAN KRIKUNENKO Russia U17 138 7 YEGOR KORSHKOV Russia U17 135 8 ANTON ZLOBIN Russia U17 132 9 YEGOR BABENKO Russia U17 112 10 ANDREI ALTYBARMAKYAN Russia U17 109 72 192 50 LARS ELLER 664 -SuperElit 553 -SuperElit 111 17.4 51 JERRY D'AMIGO 663 -NAHL-USDP 1059 -NAHL-USDP 134 17.6 52 TYLER BENSON 652 -WHL 345 -WHL 307 17.5 53 JOHN MCFARLAND 645 -OHL 279 -OHL 366 17.5 54 PERTTU LINDGREN 642 -Jr. A SM-liiga 356 -Jr. B SM-sarja 286 17.1 55 IGOR SHVYRYOV 641 -MHL 257 -MHL-Russia U17 384 17.2 56 DENIS ALEXEYEV 626 -MHL 370 -MHL 257 18.0 57 FILIP CHLAPÍK 615 -QMJHL 361 -Czech U20 254 17.3 58 DMITRIJ JASKIN 613 -Czech 364 -Czech U20-Czech U18 249 17.5 59 JUSTIN ABDELKADER 607 -USHL 322 -USHS 286 17.6 60 RICKARD RAKELL 604 -OHL 328 -J18 Allsvenskan-J18 Elit 276 17.4 Like Alexeyev, I can justify a 7th on him. Rasmus Asplund is ranked about 22. Draftsite.com has him at 32 SHL at 17 1 KEVIN FIALA SHL 943 2 ELIAS LINDHOLM SHL 891 3 NICKLAS BÄCKSTRÖM SHL 721 4 CARL GRUNDSTRÖM SHL 539 5 MIKA ZIBANEJAD SHL 519 6 JACOB JOSEFSON SHL 480 7 WILLIAM NYLANDER SHL 473 8 MAGNUS PÄÄJÄRVI SHL 459 9 PONTUS ÅBERG SHL 455 10 MATHIAS FROM SHL 413 11 CALLE JÄRNKROK SHL 409 12 ADRIAN KEMPE SHL 403 13 RASMUS ASPLUND SHL 387 14 JAKOB SILFVERBERG SHL 375 15 MATTIAS TEDENBY SHL 352 SHL at 16 1 CARL GRUNDSTRÖM SHL 266 2 ANTON LANDER SHL 141 3 RASMUS ASPLUND SHL 133 4 MAGNUS PÄÄJÄRVI SHL 116 5 NICKLAS BÄCKSTRÖM SHL 0 6 ELIAS LINDHOLM SHL 0 7 FREDRIK FORSBERG SHL 0 SuperElit at 16 1 WILLIAM NYLANDER SuperElit 749 2 FILIP FORSBERG SuperElit 520 3 CARL GRUNDSTRÖM SuperElit 459 4 MIKAEL BACKLUND SuperElit 446 5 FREDRIK FORSBERG SuperElit 428 6 VICTOR RASK SuperElit 378 7 JONATHAN DAHLÉN SuperElit 375 8 JESPER BRATT SuperElit 344 9 JAKUB VRÁNA SuperElit 342 10 LUCAS WALLMARK SuperElit 331 11 NICKLAS BÄCKSTRÖM SuperElit 327 12 RASMUS ASPLUND SuperElit 326 13 GUSTAV POSSLER SuperElit 313 14 ELIAS LINDHOLM SuperElit 292 15 MIKKEL BØDKER SuperElit 288 70, 176 40 MAGNUS PÄÄJÄRVI 655 -SHL 459 -SHL-SuperElit 196 17.4 41 CHASE DE LEO 654 -WHL 385 -WHL 270 17.9 42 CHARLES HUDON 630 -QMJHL 354 -QMJHL 276 17.2 43 DAVID KVETON 630 -Czech 240 -Czech U20 390 17.7 44 RASMUS ASPLUND 617 -SHL 387 -SHL-SuperElit 230 17.8 45 JUSTIN SHUGG 613 -OHL 429 -OHL 185 17.7 46 MICHAEL ST. CROIX 613 -WHL 429 -WHL 184 17.4 47 PHIL VARONE 610 -OHL 326 -OHL-OHL 284 17.8 48 DILLON DUBÉ 604 -WHL 380 -WHL 224 17.2 49 BROOKS MACEK 600 -WHL 464 -WHL 137 17.3 50 KIRILL KAPRIZOV 576 -KHL 368 -MHL 209 17.4 SIMON STRANSKY ranked 48 CSS NA. draftsite.com has him at 60. WHL at 17 45 NINO NIEDERREITER WHL 375 46 LINDEN VEY WHL 375 47 EMERSON ETEM WHL 375 48 BRENDAN GALLAGHER WHL 374 49 RILEY HOLZAPFEL WHL 370 50 SIMON STRANSKY WHL 370 51 CONNER BLEACKLEY WHL 368 52 RYAN RUSSELL WHL 367 53 DOMINIK UHER WHL 366 54 ROURKE CHARTIER WHL 365 55 DANTE HANNOUN WHL 362 WHL at 16 25 LEON DRAISAITL WHL 259 26 BRAYDEN POINT WHL 257 27 COLTON SISSONS WHL 251 28 RYAN GROPP WHL 239 29 SIMON STRANSKY WHL 232 30 TOMAS VINCOUR WHL 232 31 SPENCER MACHACEK WHL 231 32 BRANDON SUTTER WHL 227 33 JAYCE HAWRYLUK WHL 225 34 DILLON DUBÉ WHL 224 35 MITCH WAHL WHL 222 72 170 40 NIKITA SCHERBAK 632 -WHL 554 -MHL 77 17.7 41 DAVID KVETON 630 -Czech 240 -Czech U20 390 17.7 42 KYLE TURRIS 622 -BCHL 481 -BCHL 142 17.1 43 GERMAN RUBTSOV 622 -MHL 496 -MHL 125 17.2 44 RASMUS ASPLUND 617 -SHL 387 -SHL-SuperElit 230 17.8 45 JARED MCCANN 616 -OHL 433 -OHL 183 17.3 46 JAKE DEBRUSK 616 -WHL 486 -WHL 130 17.9 47 MICHAEL ST. CROIX 613 -WHL 429 -WHL 184 17.4 48 NATHAN NOEL 613 -QMJHL 413 -QMJHL 199 17.2 49 SIMON STRANSKY 601 -WHL 370 -WHL 232 17.7 50 TIM BOZON 596 -WHL 462 -Elite Jr. A 134 17.5

Brayden Burke is rated 63rd NA by CSS. Draftsite.com has him at 132. He had really great 18th year after a 17th year when he wasn't drafted, but could have been. All new comparables, maybe even a couple of new charts, because this is our first overager, and he has way too many assists. First off, you gotta ask yourself, why was this team pretty good. The Lethbridge Hurricane scored 86 more goals than they gave up. Why? A 16 year old goaltender? Georgio Estephan? I think not. First I want to talk about overagers. You are not drafting enough of them. 2006 is more or less representative, the labeled circles are NHL players. The size of the circle is NHL games played. Note that after pick 90 or so, you are much better off choosing an overager. 17-year-olds, after pick 90, were chosen about 3 times as often as overagers, but the overagers ended up being better players. WHL at 18, remember the smalls are valued somewhat high: 1 BRAYDEN SCHENN WHL 1377 2 LEON DRAISAITL WHL 1193 3 PETER MUELLER WHL 1101 4 SVEN BÄRTSCHI WHL 1037 5 NIC PETAN WHL 1033 6 RYAN JOHANSEN WHL 1031 7 GILBERT BRULÉ WHL 1003 8 BRAYDEN BURKE WHL 989 9 MICHAEL ST. CROIX WHL 945 10 DRAYSON BOWMAN WHL 895 WHL at 17: 105 COLTON SISSONS WHL 261 106 NICK DRAZENOVIC WHL 261 107 BYRON FROESE WHL 253 108 BLAIR JONES WHL 253 109 GLENN GAWDIN WHL 252 110 COLTON SCEVIOUR WHL 251 111 BRAYDEN BURKE WHL 251 112 MICHAEL GRABNER WHL 251 113 CRAIG CUNNINGHAM WHL 248 114 KEEGAN IVERSON WHL 248 115 DANA TYRELL WHL 248 Burke is 70, 163. I think this next list needs some context for a couple reasons. For one, I think the 50% discount for being an overager is too much. Secondly, my new theory is that your 18th year means more than your 17th year. Last year's theory that you are looking for improvement makes sense as the overagers are vastly underrated, but it doesn't work as often players have a really good 17th year. This new theory fits into history, cherry picking anyway, as players like Jamie Benn and Milan Lucic became scorers at 18. Comparable size players at 18: 1 PATRICK KANE NHL 2037 2 WILLIAM NYLANDER SHL 1286 3 SEBASTIAN AHO Liiga 1156 4 MITCHELL MARNER OHL 1091 5 BRAYDEN BURKE WHL 989 6 JOEY HISHON OHL 988 7 WILLIAM NYLANDER AHL 935 8 MATHEW BARZAL WHL 868 9 ANTHONY RICHARD QMJHL 867 10 TEUVO TERÄVÄINEN Liiga 814 The next list is 2015 18 year old forwards, remember the rule of thumb, that 1000 rated players are borderline NHL players 1 CONNOR MCDAVID NHL 3413 2 JACK EICHEL NHL 1440 3 DYLAN STROME OHL 1391 4 KYLE CONNOR NCAA 1303 5 BROCK BOESER NCAA 1179 6 SEBASTIAN AHO Liiga 1156 7 MIKKO RANTANEN AHL 1134 8 TRAVIS KONECNY OHL 1132 9 MITCHELL MARNER OHL 1091 10 BRAYDEN BURKE WHL 989 You may think I need to discount assists, which I think is a reasonable point of view. These are the 18 year old forwards with more than 2.5 assists per goal. Burke had just over 3 assists per goal. 1 JONATHAN DROUIN QMJHL 1740 2 SAM GAGNER NHL 1505 3 JORI LEHTERÄ Jr. A SM-liiga 1148 4 PETER MUELLER WHL 1101 5 MIKAEL GRANLUND Liiga 997 6 BRAYDEN BURKE WHL 989 7 JOSHUA HO-SANG OHL 866 8 JOSH BAILEY NHL 824 9 DERICK BRASSARD QMJHL 786 10 AARON PALUSHAJ NCAA 780 The same list at 17, not the most pleasing 1 KEVIN FIALA SHL 943 2 MATTHEW TKACHUK OHL 869 3 JAKUB VORACEK QMJHL 840 4 TOM FRITSCHE NCAA 687 5 SHANE PRINCE OHL 659 6 NICHOLAS MERKLEY WHL 658 7 MATHEW BARZAL WHL 616 8 JANSEN HARKINS WHL 596 9 ARTEMI PANARIN KHL 547 10 MITCH WAHL WHL 522 So Braden Burke can hopefully be had with a third.

I thought that players that have contracts would vote no, because it could cost them money. Players that didn't have contracts would vote yes, since each team will have 3 million more to spend on them. I figure there's more players with contracts than players without contracts, my thinking was nothing deeper than this. I think where I'm wrong is that the entire Chicago team votes yes, since they can't win at 70 million, but might win at 73.

I am surprised that's how the players will vote, I thought for sure it would go the other way

Through my lens, William Pethrus, though a bit smaller, is very similar to Bernhardt, except it doesn't look like Pethrus will be drafted. WILLIAM PETHRUS is unranked. SuperEllit at 17 1 JONAS JUNLAND SuperElit 684 2 CALLE ANDERSSON SuperElit 546 3 WILLIAM PETHRUS SuperElit 508 4 LUDWIG BYSTRÖM SuperElit 464 5 DAVID BERNHARDT SuperElit 437 6 DENNIS PERSSON SuperElit 434 7 ALEXANDER URBOM SuperElit 408 8 MATTIAS BÄCKMAN SuperElit 400 9 ROBERT HÄGG SuperElit 382 10 MARCUS ERSSON SuperElit 381 SuperElit at 16 1 OLIVER KYLINGTON SuperElit 315 2 DAVID RUNDBLAD SuperElit 311 3 MARCUS PETTERSSON SuperElit 299 4 RASMUS BENGTSSON SuperElit 279 5 DAVID BERNHARDT SuperElit 225 6 TIM ERIXON SuperElit 191 7 LINUS ARNESSON SuperElit 187 8 MIKAEL WIKSTRAND SuperElit 187 9 JULIUS BERGMAN SuperElit 186 10 PHILIP LARSEN SuperElit 176 11 ALEXANDER URBOM SuperElit 175 12 ALEXANDER ANDERSSON SuperElit 166 13 LUDWIG BYSTRÖM SuperElit 152 14 ROBERT HÄGG SuperElit 146 15 WILLIAM PETHRUS SuperElit 144 16 JONAS JUNLAND SuperElit 142 17 VIKTOR LÖÖV SuperElit 140 18 MATTIAS BÄCKMAN SuperElit 133 19 JACOB MOVERARE SuperElit 122 20 JONAS AHNELÖV SuperElit 118 Allsvenskan at 16 1 RASMUS ANDERSSON Allsvenskan 263 2 WILLIAM PETHRUS Allsvenskan 65 3 MIKAEL WIKSTRAND Allsvenskan 32 4 JULIUS BERGMAN Allsvenskan 0 74 183 1 JORDAN SCHMALTZ 948 -USHL 506 -USHL 442 17.9 2 OLLI JUOLEVI 874 -OHL 592 -Jr. A SM-liiga 281 17.4 3 NATHAN BEAULIEU 850 -QMJHL 434 -QMJHL 416 17.8 4 ERIC ROY 802 -WHL 338 -WHL 464 17.9 5 SHEA THEODORE 785 -WHL 491 -WHL 294 17.1 6 STEFAN ELLIOTT 783 -WHL 460 -WHL 322 17.6 7 MICHAEL DOWNING 753 -USHL 464 -USHL 289 17.3 8 DUNCAN SIEMENS 730 -WHL 468 -WHL 261 17.0 9 JACOB TROUBA 725 -USDP-USHL 667 -USDP-USHL 392 17.6 10 DAVID RUNDBLAD 711 -SHL 400 -SuperElit 311 17.9 11 NOAH JUULSEN 699 -WHL 606 -WHL 93 17.5 12 DAMON SEVERSON 669 -WHL 471 -WHL 198 17.1 13 BRANDON GORMLEY 641 -QMJHL 396 -QMJHL 244 17.6 14 JOHN MOORE 627 -USHL 431 -USHL 196 17.8 15 BOBBY SANGUINETTI 626 -OHL 449 -OHL 177 17.5 16 WILLIAM PETHRUS 612 -SuperElit 508 -Allsvenskan-SuperElit 104 18.0 17 PATRICK WIERCIOCH 593 -USHL 438 -BCHL 155 17.0 18 DANTE FABBRO 573 -BCHL 408 -BCHL 165 17.2 19 MATT MACKENZIE 563 -WHL 420 -WHL 142 17.9 20 DILLON FOURNIER 531 -QMJHL 386 -QMJHL 145 17.3 Hoping to get him in round 6 or 7.

I'm using http://www.draftsite.com/nhl/mock-draft/2016/to get an idea where players get drafted. The group consensus thinks Bernhardt goes about 135th. David Bernhardt is ranked 39th in the CSS EU. SuperElit at 17: 1 JONAS JUNLAND SuperElit 684 2 CALLE ANDERSSON SuperElit 546 3 WILLIAM PETHRUS SuperElit 508 4 LUDWIG BYSTRÖM SuperElit 464 5 DAVID BERNHARDT SuperElit 437 6 DENNIS PERSSON SuperElit 434 7 ALEXANDER URBOM SuperElit 408 8 MATTIAS BÄCKMAN SuperElit 400 9 ROBERT HÄGG SuperElit 382 10 MARCUS ERSSON SuperElit 381 SuperElit at 16 1 OLIVER KYLINGTON SuperElit 315 2 DAVID RUNDBLAD SuperElit 311 3 MARCUS PETTERSSON SuperElit 299 4 RASMUS BENGTSSON SuperElit 279 5 DAVID BERNHARDT SuperElit 225 6 TIM ERIXON SuperElit 191 7 LINUS ARNESSON SuperElit 187 8 MIKAEL WIKSTRAND SuperElit 187 9 JULIUS BERGMAN SuperElit 186 10 PHILIP LARSEN SuperElit 176 75, 203 15 RYAN PILON 757 -WHL 527 -WHL-WHL 230 17.9 16 COLBY COHEN 749 -USHL 660 -NAHL-USDP-USDP 89 17.4 17 NICOLAS MELOCHE 743 -QMJHL 421 -QMJHL 322 17.2 18 JACOB TROUBA 725 -USDP-USHL 667 -USDP-USHL 392 17.6 19 MICHAEL STONE 683 -WHL 429 -WHL 253 17.3 20 KARL ALZNER 677 -WHL 468 -WHL 209 18.0 21 DAVID BERNHARDT 662 -SuperElit 437 -SuperElit 225 17.8 22 HAYDN FLEURY 606 -WHL 429 -WHL 177 17.2 23 BRIAN DUMOULIN 594 -EJHL 243 -USHS 351 17.0 24 VIKTOR DOVGAN NaN 0 -Russia3 0 0.0 25 CALLE ANDERSSON 567 -SuperElit 546 -SuperElit-J18 Allsvenskan 22 17.3 26 RASMUS RISTOLAINEN 562 -Liiga 343 -Liiga 220 17.9 You may be asking yourself why Risto is on this list. My theory on defensemen is that you have to look, not only how they score, but where they play, Risto played with adults at 16, whereas Bernhardt played with U20's at 17. For me this makes Euros a bit easy to value, since an OHL player has no where to go if he's really good. If I end up with a few 3rd round picks, I hope I get Bernhardt with one of them.

Not after he waives it to come to Buffalo

Not arguing for Vanek, but why would he need to be protected?

In my raw list, I'm at about 23rd. The raw list needs some work since the I need to compare each player to his size, and make sure the league variable is realistic. Also defensemen are a bit undervalued. So far, I only have a couple differences between my list and scounting's consensus, this is because, for the first 20 or so picks, they do a good job. Cameron Morrison is only ranked by CSS NA, at 46. I saw Button's list for the first time, he has Morrison at 47, if I remember right. Note that Morrison is very young with optimal size. For this list, Rau played in the USHL prior to its becoming a league players were drafted from, so my brain generally removes him from any USHL list. Marody is small and undervalued, Liger favorite Cammarata is small. I would have over-drafted Tropp. 1 KYLE CONNOR USHL 791 2 CLAYTON KELLER USHL 737 3 CHAD RAU USHL 654 4 JADEN SCHWARTZ USHL 633 5 COREY TROPP USHL 589 6 COOPER MARODY USHL 541 7 TAYLOR CAMMARATA USHL 529 8 ZEMGUS GIRGENSONS USHL 524 9 CAMERON MORRISON USHL 513 10 SONNY MILANO USHL 509 OJHL at 16: Not a lot of help for context, but with Caggiula and Brown where they are, I think I could double these numbers and be OK. Guptill was part of the midseason trade with Ottawa, and seems to be an Amerk. 1 ALEXANDER GUPTILL OJHL 150 2 CAMERON MORRISON OJHL 125 3 PHILIP LANE OJHL 108 4 JAKE EVANS OJHL 102 5 MATT BUCKLES OJHL 100 6 PHILLIP DI GIUSEPPE OJHL 88 7 DRAKE CAGGIULA OJHL 74 8 ZACH HYMAN OJHL 63 9 CONNOR BROWN OJHL 52 10 DYLAN SIKURA OJHL 43 11 BRETT SENEY OJHL 12 While we are here, we'll look at OJHL at 17. The name that jumps out to me is Walman, drafted by the blues, who had an excellent 18th year. 1 BRENNAN SERVILLE OJHL 172 2 MICHAEL PRAPAVESSIS OJHL 146 3 JAKE WALMAN OJHL 94 4 JAMES DE HAAS OJHL 51 Morrison is 74, 207, 20th to 30th. If you fix the OJHL problem, adding 125, his 750 would be fairly high in a size you are looking for. 20 HENRIK BJÖRKLUND 699 -Division 1 442 -Division 1-J18 Allsvenskan-J18 Elit 257 18.0 21 RYAN STOA 684 -USDP-NAHL 609 -NAHL-USDP 380 17.4 22 RILEY SHEAHAN 657 -NCAA 379 -GOJHL 278 17.8 23 BOONE JENNER 656 -OHL 374 -OHL 282 17.3 24 BRENDAN GAUNCE 644 -OHL 464 -OHL 180 17.5 25 CHRISTOFER LÖFBERG 641 -SuperElit 510 -SuperElit 131 17.9 26 CAMERON MORRISON 638 -USHL 513 -OJHL 125 17.1 27 TIMO MEIER 624 -QMJHL 454 -QMJHL 170 17.9 28 PAVEL ZACHA 620 -OHL 298 -Czech2-Czech 322 17.4 29 GREG NEMISZ 619 -OHL 440 -OHL 179 17.3 30 JAMES SHEPPARD 601 -QMJHL 407 -QMJHL 194 17.4 Absolutely on my board.

Tyler Benson is ranked about 27th. WHL forwards at 17, 50-60 50 SIMON STRANSKY WHL 370 51 CONNER BLEACKLEY WHL 368 52 RYAN RUSSELL WHL 367 53 DOMINIK UHER WHL 366 54 ROURKE CHARTIER WHL 365 55 SPENCER MACHACEK WHL 360 56 RYAN JOHANSEN WHL 359 57 BRAD ROSS WHL 354 58 OLIVER BJORKSTRAND WHL 349 59 TYLER BENSON WHL 345 60 JORDAN KNACKSTEDT WHL 336 WHL forwards at 16, 10-20 10 EVANDER KANE WHL 329 11 RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS WHL 326 12 CURTIS HAMILTON WHL 325 13 PAUL BITTNER WHL 322 14 MATHEW BARZAL WHL 318 15 BRETT CONNOLLY WHL 312 16 TYLER BENSON WHL 307 17 MICHAL REPIK WHL 291 18 JORDAN EBERLE WHL 290 19 JORDAN WEAL WHL 289 20 TYLER ENNIS WHL 277 Benson is 71,196, 20-30 20 TOMAS KANA 680 -Czech 484 -Czech U20 196 17.8 21 DAN RYDER 680 -OHL 425 -OHL 255 17.7 22 NICO SACCHETTI 676 -USHS 376 -USHS 299 17.1 23 PONTUS ÅBERG 674 -SHL 455 -SuperElit 219 18.0 24 ALEXANDER KHOKHLACHEV 673 -OHL 385 -MHL 288 17.0 25 LARS ELLER 664 -SuperElit 553 -SuperElit 111 17.4 26 JERRY D'AMIGO 663 -NAHL-USDP 1059 -NAHL-USDP 134 17.6 27 TYLER BENSON 652 -WHL 345 -WHL 307 17.5 28 JOHN MCFARLAND 645 -OHL 279 -OHL 366 17.5 29 PERTTU LINDGREN 642 -Jr. A SM-liiga 356 -Jr. B SM-sarja 286 17.1 30 IGOR SHVYRYOV 641 -MHL 257 -MHL-Russia U17 384 17.2 Ranking Benson 27th is fine.

JULIEN GAUTHIER Ranked about 18 Q at 17, 20 to 30 20 FRANÇOIS BOUCHARD QMJHL 473 21 KAY SCHWERI QMJHL 457 22 TIMO MEIER QMJHL 454 23 ALEX BOURRET QMJHL 452 24 NIKOLAJ EHLERS QMJHL 446 25 JULIEN GAUTHIER QMJHL 443 26 MARC-OLIVIER ROY QMJHL 437 27 IVAN BARBASHYOV QMJHL 436 28 VLADIMIR TKACHYOV QMJHL 432 29 TOMAS JURCO QMJHL 431 30 GUILLAUME LATENDRESSE QMJHL 422 Q at 16, 10 to 20 10 CHARLES HUDON QMJHL 276 11 TOMAS JURCO QMJHL 275 12 PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS QMJHL 268 13 DERICK BRASSARD QMJHL 262 14 IVAN BARBASHYOV QMJHL 262 15 JULIEN GAUTHIER QMJHL 255 16 ANTHONY RICHARD QMJHL 245 17 JONATHAN DROUIN QMJHL 234 18 ANTHONY MANTHA QMJHL 227 19 ZACK PHILLIPS QMJHL 203 Gauthier is 76, 212 1 ANZE KOPITAR 1410 -SuperElit 794 -Slovenia-Slovenia U20 616 17.1 2 PATRIK LAINE 961 -Liiga 878 -Mestis 83 17.4 3 MIKKO RANTANEN 857 -Liiga 600 -Liiga-Jr. A SM-liiga 257 17.9 4 KYLE BEACH 809 -WHL 336 -WHL 473 17.7 5 JULIEN GAUTHIER 699 -QMJHL 443 -QMJHL 255 17.9 6 PAUL BITTNER 642 -WHL 320 -WHL 322 17.9 7 CHRISTOFER LÖFBERG 641 -SuperElit 510 -SuperElit 131 17.9 8 PAVEL ZACHA 620 -OHL 298 -Czech2-Czech 322 17.4 9 JOHAN RYNO 591 -Division 1 673 -Division 1 509 18.3 10 FILIP AHL 584 -SHL-SuperElit 709 -SuperElit 229 17.3 18th seems fine for a ranking.

I'll try to get to his comparables, he's about 10 or 12 from where I am now, but his 16th year was really good, and his 17th year really terrible. The sort of numbers that makes me wonder.

I think there's a place for the Mike Weber type of player, but I'm fairly certain, without looking at the comparables, that size of player busts 80% of the time, just because it's hard to be 6'7" and skate very well. I have to go through the list and add as many as I can find, I'm sure he'll be among them. What do you think of Sean Day?

I haven't done Logan Stanley yet. I'm still going off elite prospects list from a couple months ago, it had125 prospects, he wasn't on it. I'll make sure I add him next time I add players.

TAGE THOMPSON, ranked about 22nd NCAA at 17 1 JACK EICHEL NCAA 1245 2 PHIL KESSEL NCAA 834 3 JORDAN SCHROEDER NCAA 738 4 COLIN WILSON NCAA 702 5 JONATHAN TOEWS NCAA 696 6 TOM FRITSCHE NCAA 687 7 LUKE KUNIN NCAA 635 8 JON MATSUMOTO NCAA 600 9 TAGE THOMPSON NCAA 600 10 BILL SWEATT NCAA 585 USDP at 16 70 RYAN FLYNN USDP 146 71 RYAN BOURQUE USDP 146 72 JOHN HAYDEN USDP 146 73 TAGE THOMPSON USDP 134 74 JACK ROSLOVIC USDP 130 75 DENNIS YAN USDP 128 76 JASON ZUCKER USDP 124 77 QUENTIN SHORE USDP 123 USHL at 16 40 WILLIAM KNIERIM USHL 139 41 AARON PALUSHAJ USHL 132 42 THOMAS DIPAULI USHL 132 43 BEN RYAN USHL 124 44 JOHN HAYDEN USHL 124 45 TAGE THOMPSON USHL 119 46 RILEY BARBER USHL 117 47 GARRETT ROE USHL 108 48 VINCENT HINOSTROZA USHL 104 49 CHRISTOPHER WILKIE USHL 99 50 TYLER BIGGS USHL 97 Thompson is 77, 194 1 SEAN COUTURIER 1174 -QMJHL 670 -QMJHL 504 17.8 2 TAGE THOMPSON 726 -NCAA 600 -USDP-USHL 126 17.9 3 PAUL BITTNER 642 -WHL 320 -WHL 322 17.9 4 JOE COLBORNE 641 -AJHL 412 -AJHL 228 17.6 5 BOGDAN YAKIMOV 528 -MHL-VHL-VHL 1037 -MHL 183 18.0 6 PAVEL KRASKOVSKY 477 -MHL 384 -MHL-Russia U17 93 17.0 7 RODRIGO ABOLS 417 -MHL 87 -Latvia 330 17.7 8 ALEXANDER DERGACHYOV 401 -MHL 291 -MHL 110 18.0 9 GABRIEL GAGNÉ 398 -QMJHL 271 -QMJHL 127 17.8 10 RILEY TUFTE 389 -USHL-USHS 466 -USHS-USHS 156 17.4 22nd sounds about right.

Anybody have an opinion on Derek Grant? I'm guessing he can't skate fast enough

CHARLIE MCAVOY seems to rated about 15th. As I said previously, I pulled 3 players out of line because they were small, but I shouldn't have pulled McAvoy out of line, because he's big enough, and he'll score enough. NCAA at 17: 1 ZACH WERENSKI NCAA 648 2 CHARLIE MCAVOY NCAA 530 3 ADAM CLENDENING NCAA 475 4 NOAH HANIFIN NCAA 462 5 JAKE MCCABE NCAA 312 6 JAMIE OLEKSIAK NCAA 310 7 NATE HAGEMO NCAA 250 8 DANNY BIEGA NCAA 211 9 DILLON SIMPSON NCAA 210 10 MARK MITERA NCAA 190 USDP at 16, I still haven't fixed this issue, so some defensemen here may be USDP-17, McAvoy was USDP-18 in this year. 1 JACOB TROUBA USDP 683 2 NOAH HANIFIN USDP 618 3 JUSTIN FAULK USDP 569 4 CAM FOWLER USDP 527 5 ZACH WERENSKI USDP 459 6 NOAH HANIFIN USDP 430 7 CHARLIE MCAVOY USDP 391 8 ADAM CLENDENING USDP 385 9 CHAD KRYS USDP 363 10 JAMIE MCBAIN USDP 330 USHL at 16 1 JORDAN SCHMALTZ USHL 442 2 CHARLIE MCAVOY USHL 401 3 NOAH HANIFIN USHL 376 4 ZACH WERENSKI USHL 364 5 MICHAEL DOWNING USHL 289 6 SETH JONES USHL 268 7 ADAM CLENDENING USHL 265 8 ADAM COMRIE USHL 247 9 IAN MCCOSHEN USHL 244 10 ROBBIE RUSSO USHL 238 McAvoy is 72 198. 1 MICHAEL DEL ZOTTO 1162 -OHL 628 -OHL 534 17.2 2 IVAN PROVOROV 965 -WHL 812 -USHL 153 17.7 3 CHARLIE MCAVOY 925 -NCAA 530 -USDP-USHL 396 17.7 4 MORGAN RIELLY 918 -WHL 720 -WHL 198 17.5 5 JACK JOHNSON 897 -USDP-NAHL 1191 -NAHL-USDP 302 17.7 6 DMITRI KULIKOV 847 -QMJHL 651 -Russia3 196 17.9 7 JOE MORROW 839 -WHL 563 -WHL 276 17.8 8 NICK EBERT 817 -OHL 509 -OHL 308 17.3 9 ADAM CLENDENING 800 -NCAA 475 -USDP-USHL 325 17.9 10 MATHIEU CARLE 755 -QMJHL 561 -QMJHL 195 18.0 Number 10 isn't the Matt Carle you think it is. I think 15th is too unenthusiastic. 10th? 12th?

VITALI ABRAMOV Elite Prospects tells me he's ranked about 24th, he's small, but not as small as Debrincat, at least with the numbers I got. Q at 17: 1 SIDNEY CROSBY QMJHL 2409 2 JONATHAN DROUIN QMJHL 1438 3 JONATHAN HUBERDEAU QMJHL 997 4 NATHAN MACKINNON QMJHL 859 5 JAKUB VORACEK QMJHL 840 6 DERICK BRASSARD QMJHL 748 7 MIKHAIL GRIGORENKO QMJHL 713 8 SEAN COUTURIER QMJHL 670 9 VITALI ABRAMOV QMJHL 650 10 PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS QMJHL 632 MHL at 16: 1 PAVEL BUCHNEVICH MHL 623 2 NIKITA KUCHEROV MHL 385 3 YEVGENI SVECHNIKOV MHL 364 4 VITALI ABRAMOV MHL 325 5 YAKOV TRENIN MHL 321 6 ALEXANDER KHOKHLACHEV MHL 288 7 YEVGENI MITYAKIN MHL 261 8 VLADIMIR TKACHYOV MHL 255 9 PAVEL KARNAUKHOV MHL 254 10 MIKHAIL GRIGORENKO MHL 253 Russia U17 at 16 1 IGOR SHVYRYOV Russia U17 653 2 MAXIM SHALUNOV Russia U17 418 3 VITALI ABRAMOV Russia U17 325 4 NIKITA O. POPUGAYEV Russia U17 316 5 YEGOR KORSHKOV Russia U17 272 6 ANTON ZLOBIN Russia U17 265 7 IVAN ROMANOV Russia U17 205 8 NIKITA BASHKIROV Russia U17 130 9 ARTUR KAYUMOV Russia U17 130 10 PAVEL KRASKOVSKY Russia U17 113 Abramov is 69, 174 1 MIKAEL GRANLUND 1539 -Liiga 1055 -Jr. A SM-liiga 484 17.6 2 CLAYTON KELLER 1426 -USDP-USHL 1650 -USDP-USDP-USHL 601 17.1 3 ZACH BOYCHUK 1004 -WHL 538 -WHL 466 17.9 4 VITALI ABRAMOV 974 -QMJHL 650 -MHL-Russia U17 325 17.4 5 JORDAN SCHROEDER 967 -NCAA 738 -NAHL-USDP 230 18.0 6 MATHEW BARZAL 934 -WHL 616 -WHL 318 17.3 7 JOEY HISHON 908 -OHL 464 -OHL 444 17.9 8 JADEN SCHWARTZ 891 -USHL 633 -SJHL 257 17.2 9 NIC PETAN 847 -WHL 681 -WHL 165 17.5 10 ANDREW COGLIANO 845 -OPJHL 495 -OPJHL 350 17.3 11 ROBBY FABBRI 842 -OHL 658 -OHL 184 17.6 12 T.J. HENSICK 834 -NCAA 1019 -NCAA 650 18.8 13 KEVIN FIALA 809 -SHL-SuperElit 1174 -SuperElit 221 17.2 14 GILBERT BRULÉ 808 -WHL 537 -WHL 271 17.7 15 JORDAN EBERLE 799 -WHL 509 -WHL 290 17.3 16 JEREMY BRACCO 749 -USDP-USHL 856 -USDP-USHL 321 17.5 17 ANTHONY BEAUVILLIER 712 -QMJHL 563 -QMJHL 149 17.3 18 TRAVIS KONECNY 703 -OHL 379 -OHL 325 17.5 19 SVEN BÄRTSCHI 688 -WHL 536 -NLB 152 17.9 20 ALEX HUTCHINGS 687 -OHL 496 -OHL 191 17.9 I think 24th is a bit unenthusiastic, 18th might be right. Small, he might be there at 38, who knows?

I missed both Fortran and APL, I do miss BASIC

I skipped over 3, because they are small, and the model doesn't penalize enough for small right now. So we'll go back. I think Debrincat's number is too high as compared to the OHL, so I'm mostly looking at his size comparables. Elite prospects tells me Debrincat is ranked about 24. So while he will almost certainly be there at 8 or 9, he also might be there in the second round, and might be there in the third. An Erie Otter. OHL at 17 1 CONNOR MCDAVID OHL 2132 2 JOHN TAVARES OHL 1602 3 RYAN STROME OHL 1350 4 PATRICK KANE OHL 1342 5 TAYLOR HALL OHL 1210 6 SAM GAGNER OHL 1039 7 SAM BENNETT OHL 972 8 TYLER SEGUIN OHL 966 9 DYLAN STROME OHL 924 10 BRYAN LITTLE OHL 877 11 MITCHELL MARNER OHL 869 12 MATTHEW TKACHUK OHL 869 13 JOHN TAVARES OHL 799 14 STEVEN STAMKOS OHL 799 15 NAIL YAKUPOV OHL 717 16 JOSH BAILEY OHL 706 17 LOGAN COUTURE OHL 670 18 BOBBY RYAN OHL 659 19 SHANE PRINCE OHL 659 20 ROBBY FABBRI OHL 658 21 DEVANTE SMITH-PELLY OHL 653 22 MAX DOMI OHL 629 23 JEFF SKINNER OHL 614 24 ALEXANDER NYLANDER OHL 611 25 MATT DUCHENE OHL 588 26 CHRIS STEWART OHL 586 27 MICHAEL DAL COLLE OHL 570 28 CORY EMMERTON OHL 557 29 NICK RITCHIE OHL 557 30 ERIC O'DELL OHL 550 31 SEAN MONAHAN OHL 546 32 ALEX DEBRINCAT OHL 541 33 EVAN BROPHEY OHL 529 34 BRETT MACLEAN OHL 525 35 NIKOLAI GOLDOBIN OHL 513 OHL at 16 1 CONNOR MCDAVID OHL 861 2 STEVEN STAMKOS OHL 728 3 JOHN TAVARES OHL 647 4 NAIL YAKUPOV OHL 584 5 TAYLOR HALL OHL 539 6 JOEY HISHON OHL 444 7 MITCHELL MARNER OHL 428 8 MATT PUEMPEL OHL 403 9 ALEX GALCHENYUK OHL 396 10 ALEX DEBRINCAT OHL 394 Debrincat is 67, 161, these are the 17th year plus the 16th year comparables: The last number is the age, so Garland, Olofsson are overagers at 18, Azevedo at 19. If you do the math, you'll notice that Garland's 18th and 17th is discounted at 50%, which would be a little too much I think. Azevado is discounted 70%, being his 18th and 19th year. So as we look at overagers, we'll compare them to their draft year. 1 TAYLOR CAMMARATA 984 -USHL 529 -USHL 455 17.3 2 ALEX DEBRINCAT 935 -OHL 541 -OHL 394 17.7 3 ROCCO GRIMALDI 700 -USDP-USHL 893 -USDP-USDP-USHL 254 17.6 4 VLADIMIR TKACHYOV 646 -QMJHL-MHL 842 -MHL 225 17.9 5 DENIS MALGIN 535 -NLA-NLB 487 -NLB 292 17.7 6 T.J. TYNAN 531 -NCAA 736 -USHL 326 18.6 7 CONOR GARLAND 500 -QMJHL 762 -QMJHL 237 18.5 8 MARTIN REWAY 470 -QMJHL 272 -Czech U18 198 17.6 9 KYLE RAU 458 -USHS-USHL-MN Elite 636 -USHS 246 17.9 10 BRANDON KOZUN 457 -WHL 605 -WHL 310 18.5 11 ARTTU RUOTSALAINEN 415 -Liiga-Jr. A SM-liiga 658 -Jr. A SM-liiga 86 17.9 12 RYAN BOURQUE 403 -NAHL-USDP 528 -NAHL-USDP 139 17.7 13 JUSTIN AZEVEDO 348 -OHL 1134 -OHL 260 19.5 14 MATTHEW PECA 339 -CHL T1 258 -CJHL 81 17.4 15 NIKITA O. POPUGAYEV 310 -MHL 125 -MHL-Russia U17 185 17.3 16 VICTOR OLOFSSON 171 -SHL-SuperElit 371 -J18 Allsvenskan-J18 Elit 157 18.2 17 PAUL BYRON 114 -QMJHL 104 -EOJHL 10 17.4 I think 24th is a reasonable ranking, for my draft board, looking very much like a second round option.

SAMUEL GIRARD Ranked 24 by future consideration, 38 by CSS NA A very small defenseman from the Q. Q defensemen at 17: 1 DMITRI KULIKOV QMJHL 651 2 MATHIEU CARLE QMJHL 561 3 SIMON LACROIX QMJHL 456 4 SAMUEL GIRARD QMJHL 456 5 MARC-ANDRÉ BOURDON QMJHL 447 6 JÉRÉMY ROY QMJHL 442 7 NATHAN BEAULIEU QMJHL 434 8 CHARLES-OLIVIER ROUSSEL QMJHL 431 9 NICOLAS MELOCHE QMJHL 421 10 LOIK LÉVEILLÉ QMJHL 415 Q defensemen at 16: 1 NATHAN BEAULIEU QMJHL 416 2 ÉRIC GÉLINAS QMJHL 333 3 NICOLAS MELOCHE QMJHL 322 4 SAMUEL GIRARD QMJHL 294 5 JÉRÉMY ROY QMJHL 259 6 BRANDON GORMLEY QMJHL 244 7 LUKE GREEN QMJHL 230 8 MARC-ANDRÉ BOURDON QMJHL 228 9 LOIK LÉVEILLÉ QMJHL 226 10 MATHIEU CARLE QMJHL 195 Girard is 69, 161 1 SAMUEL GIRARD 750 -QMJHL 456 -QMJHL 294 17.3 2 TYSON BARRIE 509 -WHL 278 -WHL 232 17.1 3 VICTOR METE 328 -OHL 196 -OHL 132 17.3 4 SAMI VATANEN 308 -Jr. A SM-liiga 83 -Jr. B SM-sarja 226 17.3 5 BEN MARSHALL 255 -USHS 149 -USHS 106 17.0 6 ADAM ALMQVIST 235 -SuperElit 168 -SuperElit-J18 Elit 67 17.6 7 KRIS RUSSELL 163 -WHL 140 -WHL 23 17.4 8 NIKITA MAKEYEV 162 -MHL 135 -MHL-Russia U17 26 17.6 9 CHRIS WIDEMAN 146 -NCAA 237 -USHL 56 18.7 10 ERIK KARLSSON 145 -SuperElit 145 0 17.3 At the very least, I got a third round pick with his name on it.

Looking at this list, I'm thinking my BCHL is a little low, but not outrageously so. The model likes Fabbro more, but likely only because how it compares to teammates. Jamie Benn is much better at age 18. BCHL at 17, forwards: 1 KYLE TURRIS BCHL 481 2 CASEY PIERRO-ZABOTEL BCHL 391 3 BEAU BENNETT BCHL 345 4 TYSON JOST BCHL 344 5 ADAM TAMBELLINI BCHL 280 6 TAYLOR STEFISHEN BCHL 215 7 RILEY NASH BCHL 208 8 ZAC DALPE BCHL 202 9 BEN WINNETT BCHL 183 10 MARK MACMILLAN BCHL 182 11 WADE MURPHY BCHL 173 12 ADAM TAMBELLINI BCHL 166 13 MATT WATKINS BCHL 164 14 WADE MURPHY BCHL 161 15 JUJHAR KHAIRA BCHL 157 16 ALEXANDER KERFOOT BCHL 147 17 CURTIS MCKENZIE BCHL 147 18 TIM CROWDER BCHL 147 19 CAM REID BCHL 138 20 MARK SANTORELLI BCHL 118 21 KELLEN JONES BCHL 108 22 DEREK GRANT BCHL 108 23 JAMIE BENN BCHL 106 24 MATT BUTCHER BCHL 104 25 DAVID POPE BCHL 102 26 MARCUS VELA BCHL 99 27 JOEL LOWRY BCHL 93 28 CAM REID BCHL 83 29 WES MYRON BCHL 73 30 SPENCER BENNETT BCHL 67 31 MARK SANTORELLI BCHL 57 32 TIM CROWDER BCHL 47 33 JACK RAMSEY BCHL 42 34 JEDD SOLEWAY BCHL 33 35 JUSTIN COURTNALL BCHL 25 36 RANDY MCNAUGHT BCHL 23 Defensemen: 1 DANTE FABBRO BCHL 408 2 JOEY LALEGGIA BCHL 182 3 JUSTIN SCHULTZ BCHL 148 4 KEITH SEABROOK BCHL 126 5 DANE BIRKS BCHL 96 6 NOLAN DE JONG BCHL 88 7 REECE WILLCOX BCHL 88 8 CURTIS GEDIG BCHL 84 9 JOSH MANSON BCHL 69 10 ISAAC MACLEOD BCHL 66 11 CURTIS GEDIG BCHL 63 12 DEVON TOEWS BCHL 40 13 T.J. MILLER BCHL 40 14 BRADEN BIRCH BCHL 18 15 DENNIS ROBERTSON BCHL 15

I have to spend more time on BCHL, I haven't done that yet

I would have sworn I put up Bellows days ago, but I guess I didn't Bellows is ranked about 20th. USDP at 17 1 CLAYTON KELLER USDP 913 2 JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK USDP 766 3 SONNY MILANO USDP 628 4 JEREMY BRACCO USDP 601 5 JERRY D'AMIGO USDP 550 6 KIEFFER BELLOWS USDP 498 7 ROCCO GRIMALDI USDP 487 8 J.T. COMPHER USDP 471 9 ALEX TUCH USDP 444 10 BILL ARNOLD USDP 408 USHL at 17 1 KYLE CONNOR USHL 791 2 CLAYTON KELLER USHL 737 3 CHAD RAU USHL 654 4 JADEN SCHWARTZ USHL 633 5 COREY TROPP USHL 589 6 COOPER MARODY USHL 541 7 TAYLOR CAMMARATA USHL 529 8 ZEMGUS GIRGENSONS USHL 524 9 CAMERON MORRISON USHL 513 10 SONNY MILANO USHL 509 11 JAKE GUENTZEL USHL 464 12 KIEFFER BELLOWS USHL 454 USHL at 16 1 AUSTON MATTHEWS USHL 723 2 JACK EICHEL USHL 678 3 KYLE CONNOR USHL 524 4 TAYLOR CAMMARATA USHL 455 5 SETH AMBROZ USHL 390 6 MATTHEW TKACHUK USHL 377 7 STANISLAV GALIEV USHL 356 8 ZEMGUS GIRGENSONS USHL 321 9 MATT NIETO USHL 314 10 KIEFFER BELLOWS USHL 306 Bellows is 72 196, his size comparables: 1 SIDNEY CROSBY 3766 -QMJHL 2409 -QMJHL 1356 17.1 2 CONNOR MCDAVID 2994 -OHL 2132 -OHL 861 17.7 3 TAYLOR HALL 1750 -OHL 1210 -OHL 539 17.8 4 JONATHAN DROUIN 1695 -QMJHL 1438 -QMJHL-QMAAA 257 17.5 5 NATHAN MACKINNON 1628 -QMJHL 859 -QMJHL 769 17.0 6 PHIL KESSEL 1535 -NCAA 834 -NAHL-USDP 701 18.0 7 MATTHEW TKACHUK 1348 -OHL 869 -USDP-USHL 479 17.8 8 BRAYDEN SCHENN 1259 -WHL 724 -WHL 534 17.1 9 VLADIMIR TARASENKO 1092 -KHL 774 -KHL 319 17.8 10 ELIAS LINDHOLM 1036 -SHL 891 -SHL-SuperElit 146 17.8 11 LOGAN COUTURE 990 -OHL 670 -OHL 320 17.5 12 JOSH BAILEY 958 -OHL 706 -OHL-OHL 251 18.0 13 CARL GRUNDSTRÖM 901 -SHL 539 -SHL-SuperElit 362 17.8 14 AXEL HOLMSTRÖM 896 -SuperElit 508 -J18 Elit 388 17.2 15 MATT DUCHENE 889 -OHL 588 -OHL 301 17.7 16 LUKE KUNIN 851 -NCAA 635 -USDP-USHL 216 17.8 17 KIEFFER BELLOWS 782 -USDP-USHL 952 -USHL 306 17.3 Bellows ought to be ranked about 20th.