rakish

First I list everyone's 17th year raw score. It's not perfect in that some players are counted twice (those who played in two leagues, like USDP and USHL. Also it's just a total, so Buffalo's 10 picks just beat out Arizona's 4 picks, and goaltenders get zero. I redid the total on the first 3, then I got bored. Toronto 2600 Calgary Flames 2500 Philadelphia 2400 Chicago 2059 Carolina 1991 New Jersey 1879 Buffalo 1878 Arizona 1834 Tampa Bay 1829 Nashville 1796 Islanders 1791 Columbus 1720 St. Louis 1664 Montreal 1598 Edmonton 1493 Winnipeg 1463 Boston 1436 Florida 1375 Ottawa 1263 Washington 1259 Vancouver 1225 Anaheim 1212 Colorado 1163 Dallas 944 Minnesota 880 San Jose 826 Detroit 816 Rangers 766 LA Kings 717 Pittsburgh 431 I broke out the best eight teams. My 2015 ranking - Player - League - My raw valuation - note if it's not the 2016 draft ranking. So for instance, Toronto took five overagers, two that are compared to the 2015 draft, and three who are compared to the 2014 draft. The first chart here is 2008, it's fairly representative in that each year looks the same, only with different names. The x column is age drafted, the y column is the pick. The areas you want to focus on is after pick, 60 or 80, you want to take overagers, because while three times as many 17 year olds get picked after 80, say, they end up with the same number of NHL players. Here, you will notice that three good players were just barely 17 at the first draft, went undrafted, then were drafted in later rounds just past age 18, since overagers are discounted by the NHL. In this chart there is Nyquist, Martin, and Atkinson, but it happens every year. The second chart is 2016 by age. Toronto 1 AUSTON MATTHEWS NLA 1000 (Matthews not rated correctly because of league) 13 CARL GRUNDSTRÖM SHL 539 16 ADAM BROOKS WHL 890 (Among 2014 draft age group) 47 JACK WALKER WHL 545 (2014) 51 VLADIMIR BOBYLYOV WHL 469 (2015) 59 NIKOLAI CHEBYKIN MHL 415 (2015) 59 YEGOR KORSHKOV KHL 452 (2014) 32 JAMES GREENWAY USDP/USHL 190 41 NICOLAS MATTINEN OHL 143 64 KEATON MIDDLETON OHL 41 I'm very surprised Calgary came in second. Calgary 3 MATTHEW TKACHUK OHL 869 23 MATTHEW PHILLIPS WHL 426 25 DILLON DUBÉ WHL 401 41 LINUS LINDSTRÖM SuperElit 277 71 MITCHELL MATTSON USHS 184 87 EETU TUULOLA Jr. A SM-liiga 101 100 MITCHELL MATTSON USHL 20 13 ADAM FOX USDP/USHL 255 Philadelphia has become one of the better drafting teams. The third chart is my team point/games (the blue regression line and dots) and each season's drafting raw total. Philadelphia 17 GERMAN RUBTSOV MHL 496 31 PASCAL LABERGE QMJHL 340 40 WADE ALLISON USHL 285 45 CARSEN TWARYNSKI WHL 248 78 CONNOR BUNNAMAN OHL 160 85 ANTHONY SALINITRI OHL 126 8 DAVID BERNHARDT SuperElit 437 30 LINUS HÖGBERG SuperElit/J18 Elit 200 Chicago was very unexpected, since they have been drafting poorly for years. Chicago 12 ALEXANDER DEBRINCAT OHL 541 38 MATHIAS FROM SHL/SuperElit 290 43 ARTUR KAYUMOV MHL 270 94 NATHAN NOEL QMJHL 252 (2015) 16 LUCAS CARLSSON SHL 371 (2015) 32 JAKE RYCZEK USHL 190 36 CHAD KRYS USHL/USDP 166 54 BLAKE HILLMAN NCAA 179 (2014) Carolina now has a couple years of good drafting. Carolina 22 JULIEN GAUTHIER QMJHL 443 36 JANNE KUOKKANEN Jr. A SM-liiga 298 57 MATT FILIPE USHL 210 60 HUDSON ELYNUIK WHL 207 66 MAX ZIMMER USHL 190 3 JAKE BEAN WHL 559 55 NOAH CARROLL OHL 84 I read somewhere that New Jersey hired a professional poker player to help with their draft. It lookes to me that the old drafting staff used the first pick, in normal Devil style, then the poker player made 7 really good picks. I'm undecided about the second round. New Jersey 28 MICHAEL MCLEOD OHL 348 32 NATHAN BASTIAN OHL 329 34 MIKHAIL MALTSEV MHL 300 51 BRANDON GIGNAC QMJHL 225 56 JESPER BRATT Allsvenskan 210 60 JOSEPH ANDERSON USHL/USDP 200 27 YEGOR RYKOV MHL 307 (2015) 41 JEREMY DAVIES USHL 229 (2015) Buffalo did ok, three overagers, five picks that were fine, five that were not. Buffalo 9 ALEXANDER NYLANDER OHL 611 26 RASMUS ASPLUND SHL 387 57 VASILI GLOTOV MHL 424 (2015) 64 BRANDON HAGEL WHL 194 68 CLIFF PU OHL 188 96 BRETT MURRAY CCHL 61 31 CASEY FITZGERALD NCAA 279 (2015) 47 PHILIP NYBERG SuperElit 201 (2015) 53 VOJTECH BUDIK WHL 89 54 AUSTIN OSMANSKI OHL 87 Arizona did very well with only four picks. Arizona 4 CLAYTON KELLER USDP/USHL 820 5 JAKOB CHYCHRUN OHL 499 11 CAM DINEEN OHL 332 51 DEAN STEWART MJHL 95

The 2016 draft competition is set. I should have put in a few more players, but I had run out of time, so I'm two picks short. McKenzie, who only posts 80 picks, is five short. This is the second year for Pronman in this event, and I'm always shocked by how small his team is in height. I wasn't happy with how the draft went for me, I felt I was 8th behind a team that wanted the same player as me, so I missed out on Keller, but I think I did OK none-the-less. We'll check back on this list next after the World Juniors, then again next draft to see how people are doing. The players in parenthesis are who they would have picked had another contestant not selected them first, so if you are just looking at, say, Button, independent of this competition, use the player in parenthesis. Tim Murray has #8 Buffalo Sabres Alexander Nylander (RW/LW) #33 Buffalo Sabres Rasmus Asplund (C/LW) #69 Buffalo Sabres Cliff Pu (C/RW) #86 Buffalo Sabres Casey Fitzgerald (D) #99 Buffalo Sabres Brett Murray (LW) #129 Buffalo Sabres Philip Nyberg (D) #130 Buffalo Sabres Vojtech Budik (D) #159 Buffalo Sabres Brandon Hagel (LW) #189 Buffalo Sabres Austin Osmanski (D) #190 Buffalo Sabres Vasili Glotov (LW) rakish #8 Chychrun #33 Gundstrom #69 Burke #86 Bernhardt #99 Alexeyev #129 Pethrus #130 Shvyryov (Bratt) #159 Zile (Shvyryov) #189 (Zile) #190 Button #8 Brown #33 Debrincat #69 Bitten #86 Phillips #99 Mattson #129 Aapeli Räsänen (Burke) #130 David Quenneville (Rasanen) #159 Stransky (Quennville) #189 Fortier (Stransky) #190 Essiymont The Hockey News #8 Nylander #33 Debrincat #69 Pu #86 Mete #99 Tim Gettinger #129 Luce #130 Zach Sawchenko #159 Jacob Neveu #189 Otto Makinen #190 Travis Barron Pronman #8 Nylander #33 Debrincat #69 Sokolov #86 Polunin #99 Mete #129 Bratt #130 Aho #159 Stransky (Quenneville) #189 Somppi #190 Ronning (Burke,Fortier) McKenzie #8 Nylander #33 Hajek #69 Bitten #86 Kopacka #99 Gettinger #129 #130 #159 #189 #190

The list is year 2015, it has nothing to do with 2011, I'm just comparing his 2015 year to other players his age

That's just my raw valuation. Rule of thumb is that 1000 is an NHL player, If you get there at 18 you will be great, if you get there at 22, you'll be OK

I've been thinking some about the 'top 10 in the draft' phrase. Vesey was drafted in 2012, but he could have been drafted in 2011, so I try to compare him to players in the 2011 draft, this way he's not a year older than everyone else. I think 'top 10 in the 2012 draft' is a fair statement, it was a fairly weak draft and he's a year older than everyone else, but comparing Vesey to the 2011 draft, I think 20th is as high as I could go. My model has him 13th in 2014, and 27th in 2015. This is the 2015 year for that age group: 1 JOHNNY GAUDREAU NHL 2528 2 DOUGIE HAMILTON NHL 2454 3 NIKITA KUCHEROV NHL 2222 4 COLTON PARAYKO NHL 2005 5 GABRIEL LANDESKOG NHL 1990 6 MARK SCHEIFELE NHL 1925 7 BRANDON SAAD NHL 1739 8 JONATHAN HUBERDEAU NHL 1739 9 OSCAR KLEFBOM NHL 1728 10 VICTOR RASK NHL 1536 11 VINCENT TROCHECK NHL 1484 12 VIKTOR ARVIDSSON AHL 1472 13 SHAYNE GOSTISBEHERE NHL 1423 14 MIKA ZIBANEJAD NHL 1410 15 SEAN COUTURIER NHL 1387 16 JOSH LEIVO AHL 1387 17 RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS NHL 1385 18 DARREN DIETZ NHL 1371 19 BOONE JENNER NHL 1339 20 RICKARD RAKELL NHL 1338 21 BEN HUTTON NHL 1280 22 SETH GRIFFITH AHL 1256 23 COLIN SMITH AHL 1236 24 DANIEL PRIBYL Czech 1200 25 J.T. MILLER NHL 1175 26 NATHAN BEAULIEU NHL 1154 27 JIMMY VESEY NCAA 1150

Hodgson was very upset with Vancouver about his back. If I remember right, he was going to his own doctor because Vancouver was telling him he was fine, and he was telling them he wasn't. There was also a thread where X and Drane (who agreed on nothing else) agreed that Hodgson looked like a 40 year old Rick Vaive, who famously played past when his body allowed him to play

Hodgson was a big-time hockey player at 18. Then he hurt his back. My theory is, if he had complained about how much his back hurt, he wouldn't have got the last 2 contracts he got, so he toughed it out. Millions of dollars are hard to pass up. It's not about lack of talent, or effort, or anything else, his body just couldn't do it.

I like Borgen (because he played WJC last season) and Martin (because he's both big and scores) more than you, but other than that, it's fairly close to how I look at it.

Florida presents a nice test case as to going analytic in the way they are. I'm guessing they take a step back, as it would fit into my world view, but if they take a step forward, I will need to change my mind.

Saturday the guy at Washington St pointed me toward Boomerangs on Niagara as having fish fry. I must have driven by it, I ended up with sad food cart lunch. I'll get fish fry next time I'm back in town.

Or...as it turns out... Saturday afternoon

I'm fine with Nylander at 8th, I had him about 10th. Had a less analytic team picked 7th, Keller would have been available at 8, and then I wouldn't have been ok with Nylander at 8.

Goldman Sachs

I'll see you there

Ya know, in high school, kids just said, "rakish, you're not invited"

And where will that be liger?

Having two girls around, never good

Buffalo

No, Lanny reports Murray says he doesn't have any players with NMC. I look forward to hearing the player's association argument. I am very happy I am not making it. I'm guessing it goes something like "The clause is invalid because it invalidates Mr. Bogo's right to make a contract," which is somewhat better than "There are so many clauses, you can't expect us to read the whole CBA"

Anybody understand why Datsuyk can sign with the KHL. I had thought that the KHL and the NHL had an agreement to honor each other's contracts. As such I understand why Grigensons (if he wanted to) can sign in the KHL (His contract is up), but I don't understand why Datsuyk can.

Really? interesting You were listening to me again, weren't you?

There's certain people around here you need to pay attention to, and Chz is pretty much the only one left. Chz posted the other day that there is a clause in the CBA that states, traded players lose their NMC. You can read it yourself, off the top of my head it's 11b, but find Chz's post to get the real number Nice avatar

this isn't really a prediction, but I'll put it here anyway. This is Vesey with some comparables. In addition to the chart below, I'm not really confident on how my model deals with 22 year old NCAA players, so I like to look at when players reach 1000, (NHL ready) These are players within an inch and within 10 pounds of Vesey at age 17 Eichel reaches well over 1000 at 17 Toews, Boeser, and almost Pacioretty at 18 Stastny and Kerdiles at 19 Wagner at 20 Vesey and almost Blake Geoffrion at 21 Vesey at 22

For me the comparison is Grigo. I'm sure everyone has players they're not going to take. I'm fairly certain if you saw the Sabre's board, the kid on the Otters...now I gotta go look, DeBrincat, wouldn't be there because he doesn't fit into their belief system.

Players that tall worry me. It worries me that the scouting reports say he's slow. It worries me that he didn't score at all at age 16. If Murray moves to 2, I'll be very happy with Puljujarvi, I could put him in 8th, but will he get that far?