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rakish

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Everything posted by rakish

  1. rakish
    Filip Forsberg didn't amount to anything
  2. rakish
    Vesey Fasching Vesey outscored the rest of his team by 12 points in 33 games. Fasching was outscored by 5 points (on a PPG basis he comes in 3rd) in 37 games.
  3. rakish
    If you look at the history of drafting, every great player's linemate gets drafted way too early, whether it's Gretzky or Lemieux or Patrick Kane, or whoever. You must adjust your math to the players they are playing with, you can't just do a straight multiple of points. Additionally, you also have to adjust for age, as Fasching has a couple years on Vesey, so not all the data points to Vesey being better, but at this point enough do. Jimmy Vesey did not just become a bad player. Last week I listened to multiple posters telling me how great Vesey was. How exactly did he become a terrible prospect
  4. rakish
    You must adjust for teammates. When you do so Vesey and Fasching aren't that close. In 2015 I have Vesey as the 20th best forward in his (should have been) draft class. I have Fasching as the 34th best forward of his draft class. Since roughly 50 players per year make the NHL, Vesey looks like (at 22) as a middle six forward. Fasching (at 20), being near 50 counting defenseman, is a borderline NHL player, or a borderline bottom 6 forward.
  5. rakish
    Early in the piece Bylsma said that Eichel led the league in puck possession time the second half the year, even more than Patrick Kane. And listening to the rest of the piece, I realized that Bylsma wasn't talking about Corsi (which is derived from the NHL game logs (or whatever they're called)). To me, this means that the Sabres data department is making detailed notes from every game, and know how much time every player around the league has the puck. (Which, of course, they should be)
  6. rakish
    Dark Star Orchestra, tonight just outside of Richmond, Va. I had my girlfriend watch the Linus and Lucy scene from Charlie Brown's Christmas to get all the deadhead dance moves down
  7. rakish
    I heard there's a navy boat in town with sailors on shore leave, so I'll take a swing at this. 50.10 Player Injuries, Illnesses and Suspensions. © edit - this is a cee, not a copyright For Players that are suspended, either by a Club or by the League, the Player Salary and Bonuses that are not paid to such Players shall not count against a Club's Upper Limit or against the Players' Share for the duration of the suspension, but the Club must have Payroll Room for such Player's Player Salary and Bonuses in order for such Player to be able to return to Play for the Club. I think the real answer here is 'pigs fly.'
  8. rakish
    http://www.bellazon.com/main/topic/17244-leryn-franco/
  9. rakish
    I'm a bit more cuddly than you would think. For instance, my inkling is that coaching is almost purely an emotional job, that any benefit gained by analytics are more than lost not getting players emotionally ready to play. One of the things I believe is trying to get the data to drive the opinion, instead of, see the politics thread, cheery picking data to support your point of view. As such, I would have agreed with you before I looked at the success rate of Central Scouting, but the first time I looked at it, 4 or 5 years ago now, made me realize how terrible the 'eye-test' was past the first 20 players or so. So I'm spending some time trying to develop something that works better. So I'm curious as to what data drives the 'eye-test' opinion.
  10. rakish
    4 Mar 3 CGY Feb 26 @SJ Feb 12 MON Dec 4 ARI
  11. rakish
    Yeah, at first look Birkman doesn't interest me, it sounds too much like the Briggs & Stratton test. It is interesting though that the Blackhawks care about it. Their attempts at finding a fourth defenseman the last couple years has been interesting, I'll need to read more to understand what their thinking is.
  12. rakish
    I like Martin, I like Martin more than everyone else. Hoss and Dudacek think I'm crazy, they might be right, we'll know more on Martin within a year or two, defensemen age so slowly. So far he has very good half seasons, and not so good half seasons. For Cornel, I have him as the 49th best forward in the draft as a 17 year old (predraft), so drafting him in the second round is OK, but not great. As an 18 year old, I have him as the 91st best forward in his draft class, which is a step back. As a 19 year old, I have him at 57th. So although 2015 was much better than 2014, I see Cornel as a step back from his pre-draft valuation. In 2015, I have Brown at 107th among forwards Willman at 98th (In Barkov's class, since he was an overager) Olofsson at 39th (Also an overager) Karabacek at 105th So, other than Martin, I like Olofsson the most out of that group. As you say, we'll know more in a couple years. As for too early to judge, ######, I judge the 2016 draft (Toronto did good, Pittsburgh did bad), so I have no hesitation talking about 2014.
  13. rakish
    cool, I will look
  14. rakish
    I thought Murray had a terrible 2014 draft. He chose way too many forwards, and some good picks have gone backwards, like Cornel, and what I thought were weak picks, have gotten better, like Lemieux. 2014 looks at this point to be a wasted opportunity. Murray's 2016 is more analytic than you think. At least they have looked at a calendar to see that overagers are much better picks than 17 year olds, so they took 3 of them. They also understand that late round very young picks are good choices, and they have at least a couple of them. (Pu and Hagel), I really doubt that that's a coincidence. Toronto, who cares very much about this stuff, took 5 overagers. Does the Birkman group have a wikipedia page?
  15. rakish
    Oh, absolutely, there are players I would have taken, like Jonas Junlund, who scored a lot as a 17 year old, but then never again, but as my model gets better, I'm better at getting rid of players that I liked at 17, but failed. What I found this year is that with many of my failures the 17th year was an outliar. So this year I put a lot of importance on the value of the 16th year. The result of this is that people think I'm crazy for not liking Laine, who had a nondescript 16th year. So you're right that it's not this terrific methodology, the amount of data that I'm using is puny as compared to what I ought to have to do it right, but take a look at my post in my draft thread about the value of CSS rankings, CSS is useless.
  16. rakish
    No, the context is part of analytics, the eye-test fails from what Blue will call the Fundamental Attribution Error, that people look at players on good teams and think they are better than comparable players on bad teams.
  17. rakish
    The Blackhawks changed this year. They had a very good draft, their first good draft in many years. And yeah, you can cherry pick examples that fit into your analysis, but the teams that are talking 'context' the most, are bad
  18. rakish
    One of the things that I learned this draft is that it's important to lose. It's important to look at how you do things and say "Maybe I could do this a better way." How drafting is being done is changing quickly. No one was using analytics drafting just two years ago, now a handful of teams are, because most of them realize there's no other way forward. If you look at the results of 2016 draft, some of the worst teams, reputably stupid, ended up drafting real well. Calgary? Who'd a thought? Toronto, never? New Jersey? No way. Well New Jersey peed their first pick, but other than that, they did good. There are so many contenders for the basement 5 years out. Rangers get nothing out of the draft. Boston does OK, but OK isn't going to cut it. Montreal is terrible, but the management will be replaced shortly, because everyone knows they're terrible. Columbus owners have to have some awareness. Detroit drafted terrible this year, and terrible last year, so they are certainly a contender. Ottawa drafts terribly, hopefully people get fired. My candidate for worst team in 5 years is Pittsburgh, they are getting nothing out of the draft, they are going to trade future here to try to win one more cup, and most importantly, they have no impetus to change.
  19. rakish
    Glotov's 17th year is non-descript, I have him at 131st in his draft class. Since Glotov is an overager, I compare him with Eichel's draft class, and his year in 2015 comes in 57th for forwards, which is good for a 7th round pick. Panarin's 17th year was half spent in the KHL, where he was 12th among forwards in his age group, and half in the MHL, where he was 40th among forwards Panarin's 18th year was half spent in the KHL, where he was 19th among forwards in his age group, and half in the MHL, where he was 35th among forwards. Panarin should have been drafted as a 17 year old, early second? Rasmus Asplund is a good comparable. Glotov should have been drafted as an overager by a team starting to study this stuff (there's about 8 of them), and was.
  20. rakish
    Willman
  21. rakish
    Liger, why did you like teal?
  22. rakish
    Josh Chapman is younger than a few of the participants (Dupuy, Peterson (the forward), Petersen (the goaltender), Ullmark (injured), Gluchowski, Geiger. He played in Elmira last year.
  23. rakish
    This Chris Brown is now at BC or BU, whichever, so he hasn't played in the AHL
  24. rakish
    maybe
  25. rakish
    For me, how Nashville was treated means Vesey made a deal with someone last year. He gave up a lot in skipping the playoffs. I don't buy the Eichel narrative, I can see the Dad narrative or the hometown narrative, but I'm leaning toward the Toews narrative. If you look at Chicago's roster, they are at least one forward short, leading me to believe that they believe Vesey has already decided to come to Chicago. I look forward to how it plays out.
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