rakish

Me? I thought this was just a prediction thread. Getting two years of a bad contract gone allows you to add another player. Maybe you're right, the #38 is a bit high, but if I'm Vegas, the #57 seems a bit low.

Moulson and #38

I like this idea

Right, the number of players on your list depends on how mainstream you are. McKenzie will run out of picks even though he has 100. In my case Tippett will be gone before Boqvist, and since I prefer Boqvist, there's really no need to have Tippett on my list.

My apologies The intent is to see how different methodologies work as far as drafting. So the draft contest, called Mom's Basement Stakes, compares the draft of different pundits that produce draft lists. Let's look at an example of how it works. This is Button's top 10 1 Hishier 2 Patrick 3 Makar 4 Glass 5 Heiskanen 6 Valardi 7 Necas 8 Pettersson 9 Mittlestadt 10 Lilgegren If, at pick 8, Hishier, Patrick, Makar, Mittlestadt, Lilgegren, Suzuki, and Foote have been drafted, then Button, for pick 8, would get Glass. Under the same scenario, my top 10 looks like Nolan Patrick TIMOTHY LILJEGREN ELIAS PETTERSSON NICHOLAS SUZUKI NICO HISCHIER GABRIEL VILARDI JESPER BOQVIST CALLAN FOOTE JUUSO VÄLIMÄKI And as Pettersson is the highest undrafted player on my board, I would get him at pick 8 (if Buffalo uses pick 8) The top of Pronman's board looks like: 1 Nico Hischier C Halifax QMJHL 2 Nolan Patrick C Brandon WHL 3 Gabriel Vilardi C Windsor OHL 4 Cody Glass C Portland WHL 5 Nick Suzuki C Owen Sound OHL 6 Owen Tippett RW Mississauga OHL 7 Eeli Tolvanen RW Sioux City USHL 8 Miro Heiskanen D HIFK Liiga 9 Klim Kostin C/LW Dynamo Moscow KHL 10 Kristian Vesalainen LW/RW Frolunda SHL Under this scenario, Pronman would get Vilardi at 8. We do the same analysis for each Buffalo pick, and the group of picks will denote the pundits team for that season, then we watch how the different teams do. So my team will look something like #8 - Pettersson #37 - Boqvist #58 - Joshua Brook #74 - Denis Smirnov etc. If you look at past drafts, at www.45b.us, say 2014. You'll see Button had a real nice draft with 5 players that are still prospects or playing well. I'm second, Hockey News and Tim Murray are being crushed, Hockey News partly to injury (Axel Holmstrom) and partly that Sam Bennett has not fared well the past couple years. In the end, it's a learning tool, each year I see the things that work and the things that don't work, and try to correct them.

Reddit found McKenzie's list leaked a couple days ago, and I got some paying work coming up, so I decided to get this done today. Since I couldn't drum up any interest from Sabres' pundits, I considered moving to Las Vegas, those 5,6 or 8 top 40 picks would've been fun, but, I'm no fun. If Botterill trades pick 8 before draft day, I will re-reconsider. Unless we have a (very welcome) late entry, these are our six contestants. I'm going to do something new with Bob's list. His 100 runs out after the first 5 rounds, so I'm going to tack on the CSS NA list so he gets all his picks. Bob's list is stronger than I expected as many of the weaker picks have slid past 8. Also from reddit comes Corey Pronman. From TSN comes Craig Button. If you haven't be following Mom's, Craig had a very good 2014, but 2015 and 2016, as yet, not so much. Botterill gets his picks. He has the biggest advantage since I might choose someone in the 2nd round that he picks in the 3rd, but if he chooses someone in the 2nd, they come off the board, I don't get to pick him in the 3rd. That, and he has a staff, and gets to interview the kids, and gets all the exercise data. Canucksarmy has a list similar in technique to mine. I don't see a complete list link at canucks army, but here's the first 8. #1 - Nolen Patrick #2 - Nico Hischier #3 – Cody Glass #4 – Gabriel Vilardi #5 – Elias Pettersson #6 – Timothy Liljegren #7 – Casey Mittelstadt #8 – Nick Suzuki My list will reshuffle a bit if Botterill trades #8 and I move to Vegas (basically Boqvist moves down, as I hope to get him with the 30th pick instead of the 15th pick), but this is it as it stands now. I obviously don't list everyone, for instance Rasmussen will be long gone by the time my list would get to him. I'll be back after the draft to list who each contestant chose. Nolan Patrick TIMOTHY LILJEGREN ELIAS PETTERSSON NICHOLAS SUZUKI NICO HISCHIER GABRIEL VILARDI JESPER BOQVIST CALLAN FOOTE JUUSO VÄLIMÄKI ERIK BRÄNNSTRÖM LIAS ANDERSSON KAILER YAMAMOTO URHO VAAKANAINEN Connor Timmins Mason Shaw JASON ROBERTSON Joshua Brook Mikey Anderson MARCUS DAVIDSSON KOLE LIND Nicolas Hague Robin Salo ARTYOM MINULIN HENRI JOKIHARJU DAVID FARRANCE Cale Fleury IGOR SHVYRYOV BRINSON PASICHNUK DENIS SMIRNOV KRISTAPS ZILE DYLAN COGHLAN ANDREI ALTYBARMAKYAN PETRUS PALMU JERRY TURKULAINEN or ARTYOM MANUKYAN or ZACH SOLOW GUSTAV LINDSTRÖM NICHOLAS CAMPOLI KLIM KOSTIN BRYCE MISLEY ROBERT THOMAS ROMAN IVASHOV JOHNNY KOVACEVIC JOSEPH DUSZAK Phillipe Myers WILL REILLY KRIS MYLLARI BRENNAN MENELL PAVEL YELSHANSKY MATTHEW BRASSARD IVAN KOVALYOV Matt Timms KEVIN HANCOCK William Pethrus DMITRI RODIONYCHEV MAX GILDON Scooter Brickley BEN MIRAGEAS Ivan Lodnia PAVEL SHEN FABIAN ZETTERLUND FILIP CHYTIL MAXIM MIZYURIN JERRY TURKULAINEN or ARTYOM MANUKYAN or ZACH SOLOW JERRY TURKULAINEN or ARTYOM MANUKYAN or ZACH SOLOW Dominik Lakatos

TSN has twittered that the Islanders are giving up their first round pick as the method of protection.

14 Sabre draft picks, if I counted right Larsson McCabe Risto Ennis Foligno Girgensons Nikita Zadorov Andrej Sekera Zach Kassian Mark Pysek Jason Pominville Paul Byron Tyler Myers Joel Armia

8 x 4 = 32

The other ones I like are (more or less in value order): KRISTAPS ZILE DYLAN COGHLAN ANDREI ALTYBARMAKYAN ARTYOM MANUKYAN ROMAN IVASHOV JOHNNY KOVACEVIC WILL REILLY BRENNAN MENELL PAVEL YELSHANSKY MATTHEW BRASSARD Matt Timms KEVIN HANCOCK William Pethrus

As I said earlier, I may have a bug. I got Reinhart, Kane and Baley playing 39 minutes together, almost all of them the 6 games between game 37 and 42 (Jan 3-Jan 13). During those 39 minutes, Sam scored zero points, together, 1 goal was scored.

You want coherent and understandable too? 1. Smirnov 2. BRINSON PASICHNUK 3. IGOR SHVYRYOV 4. Palmu

I don't have anything close to these numbers, I might have a bug edit: You're using Sam's website, aren't you? edit: I have Eichel with 811 even strength minutes, 28 points, 2.07/60 I have Eichel, with Reinhart, 453 ES minutes, 12 points, 1.59/60

Dude... if you aren't reading my stuff, then no one is

Eichel scored less (even strength P/60) with Reinhart than most anyone. Reinhart scored less with Eichel than most anyone. Why Bylsma kept them together so long, I don't know

I pulled apart the last 2 Penguin drafts, I added Guenzel at the bottom just because it has some interest. I have no idea the input Botterill had in selecting their drafts, but I though it may help as to guessing what he believes. The Penguins believe in overagers, which is a reasonable belief, since in the 4rd round you are either looking at the 80th best 17 year old from the previous year, or maybe the 30th best 18 or 19 year old. Of the skaters chosen the past two seasons, Pittsburgh chose four 17-year-olds, one 18-year-old, two 19-year-olds, and one 20-year-old. You see both the boom and bust of choosing overagers, Dominic Simon wasn't a prospect at age 17, 18, or 19. Had a good age 20, and now looks like an NHL player. Tiffels, on the other hand, wasn't a propect at age 17 or 18, had a good age 19, but now the good age-19 looks like an anomaly. As people have stated before, most everyone goes through the NCAA. #55 Filip Gustavsson (G) #61 Kasper Björkqvist (RW/LW) : Overager 103/134th among 16's (Fin U20/Fin U18) 125th among 17's (Fin U20) 86th among 18's (Fin U20) 151st among 19's (NCAA) #77 Conner Hall (D) : Tall 85th among 16's (GOJHL) 56th among 17's (OHL) 77th among 18's (OHL) #121 Ryan Jones (D) : Double Overager 76th among 17's (midget) 81st among 18's (USHL) 55th among 19's (USHL) 70th among 20's (NCAA) #151 Niclas Almari (D) 75/95 among 16's (Fin U20/ U18) 87th among 17's (Fin U20) 46/82nd among 18's (Liiga/Mestis) #181 Joseph Masonius (D) : Overager 61/76tha among 16's (USDP-17/USHL) 22/60th among 17's (USDP/USHL) 7th among 18's (NCAA) 58th among 19's (NCAA) 2015 #46 Daniel Sprong (RW/LW) 8th among 16's (QMJHL) 29th among 17's (QMJHL) 59th among 18's (QMJHL) 20th among 19's (QMJHL) #137 Dominik Simon (LW/C) : Double Overager or more 141/142 among 17's (Czech U18/Czech U20) 16/52nd among 18's (Czech2/Czech U20) 105th among 19's (Czech) 44th among 20's (Czech) 24th among 21's (AHL) 19th among 22's (AHL) #167 Frederik Tiffels (LW) : Double Overager 90th among 17's (USHL) 98/124th among 18's (USHL/USHL) 54th among 19's (NCAA) 95th among 20's (NCAA) 111th among 21's (NCAA) #197 Nikita Pavlychev © : 6'7" 151st among 16's (AYHL) 133rd among 17's (USHL) 156th among 18's (USHL) 143rd among 19's (NCAA) 2013 #77 Jake Guentzel (C/LW) 32nd among 16's (High School) 19th among 17's (USHL) 24th among 18's (NCAA) 15th among 19's (NCAA) 32nd among 20's (NCAA) 1/5th among 21's (AHL/NHL)

Link

I think Arizona's board looks very much like Canucksarmy's. They just posted Liljegrin at 6. If my finger counting is correct, Liljegren is CA's highest rated defenseman. If Liljegren is gone before 7, I'm guessing they go Pettersson or Suzuki, the latter being well off the consensus. It's the eye-test people that like Makar, Vancouver, probably Vegas, New Jersey even, though I would think they would slide back to do it.

My prediction is that Arizona believes this at #7

I think people underestimate how close the top players in this draft are. While it's a really weak draft picking 1, it's a really strong draft picking 12, because you could be getting the same player. For instance, in the end, Lilgegren or Pettersson could be the best player in the draft, they could each also be picked outside the top 10.

Ryan O'Reilly

The most undervalued draft picks lately have been overagers. Players like Victor Arvidsson, Wayne Simmonds, Jimmy Vesey were by-passed in their first opportunity to be selected. Teams are recognizing this, Toronto took a boatload of overagers last draft, 4 if I remember right. Even Buffalo took a couple last draft, again, from memory. The second most undervalued, NCAA players. The most overvalued, high school, then 2nd tier leagues. Overagers are hard to find, I will miss some, I look at eliteprospects 600+ list of prospects, and teams will start picking players outside of that 600+ list by the third round. These are my 4 favorite this year: Denis Smirnov. Came through the USHL, is 2 years overage, but was very young at his first draft, which is common that a very young player gets overlooked at 17. Smirnov did OK at 17, I have him at 82nd best forward. Age 18, 95th best forward But age 19, moved to the NCAA, 12th best, right next to Mathew Barzal. Check out Penn State, he outscores his teammates by 15 points (I use base 60), on a very good hockey team. Such a great year could be an anomaly, but he's the type of player I'm hoping to get in my draft contest. I can't pronounce his name, but Brinson Pasichnuk has stats very close to Makar, born a year earlier. Makar's 16th year was better, so I think I would prefer Makar, but you won't find him in the second or third round. Pasichnuk: Age 16: 36th best defenseman (AJHL) Age 17: 13th best defenseman (AJHL) Age 18: 9th best defenseman (NCAA) I don't trust 2nd tier players, and the model reflects my 2nd tier concern, so I'm not exactly on the Makar bus, but this is what the model says: Makar: Age 16: 32nd best defenseman (AJHL) Age 17: 22nd best defenseman (AJHL) Third, I also can't pronounce, is Igor Shvyryov. I selected Igor in my draft last season, he then went out and scored 70 points in 40 games in the MHL. Last season there were a number of good seasons in the MHL, so they may have changed some rules to increase scoring. Who knows? They moved him up to the KHL for 10 games and he didn't score. Lets look at the MHL players at the top of my model for age 18: 1 IGOR SHVYRYOV MHL 1634 2 ALEXANDER KADEYKIN MHL 1260 3 ANDREI ALTYBARMAKYAN MHL 1099 (also 2017 eligible) 4 ARTYOM MANUKYAN MHL 1014 (also 2017 eligible, but tiny) 5 YEGOR KORSHKOV MHL 970 (Toronto Round 2) 6 NIKITA KUCHEROV MHL 853 7 NIKITA GUSEV MHL 810 8 MAXIM SHALUNOV MHL 745 9 MIKHAIL MALTSEV MHL 677 10 ARTEMI PANARIN MHL 637 11 GERMAN RUBTSOV MHL 580 As far as where the model compares Shvyryov to his peers. Age 16: 32nd best forward (Russia U17) Age 17: 46th best (MHL) Age 18: 4th best (MHL) Petrus Palmu: I know what you're thinking, he's tiny. My theory is it's not the height, it's the weight that matters, and if he is 179, he's heavy enough, but I'm thinking round 6 or 7 here. Palmu vs his peers Age 16: 80th Age 17: 84th Age 18: 58th Age 19: 19th

I'd like to see MJ stop paying players their lunch money so the kids wouldn't lose their eligibility. I've seen MJ kids go to Canadian Colleges, but I think MJ removes you from US Colleges. Or am I confused about the eligibility?

So I looked at the weights and measures from the combine to try to make my data a bit more accurate. The first player was Filip Chytil, who I had at 72 inches, they measured at 75.5. I thought, how do you confuse a 6' player from a 6'3 1/2" player? It didn't make sense until I saw the note under the first group of players. Please note, the 7:30 A.M. group tested with shoes on. Subtract two inches to get their height without shoes. Listed heights are with shoes and what was posted on the board. Adjust accordingly.

Theories?