rakish

This has the right number of games Thu, Oct 5 7:00 PM ET vs. MTL Sat, Oct 7 7:00 PM ET @ NYI Mon, Oct 9 3:00 PM ET vs. NJD Thu, Oct 12 10:30 PM ET @ SJS Sat, Oct 14 10:30 PM ET @ LAK Sun, Oct 15 9:00 PM ET @ ANA Tue, Oct 17 10:00 PM ET @ VGK Fri, Oct 20 7:00 PM ET vs. VAN Sat, Oct 21 7:00 PM ET @ BOS Tue, Oct 24 7:00 PM ET vs. DET Wed, Oct 25 8:00 PM ET @ CBJ Sat, Oct 28 1:00 PM ET vs. SJS Thu, Nov 2 10:00 PM ET @ ARI Sat, Nov 4 8:00 PM ET @ DAL Tue, Nov 7 7:00 PM ET vs. WSH Fri, Nov 10 7:00 PM ET vs. FLA Sat, Nov 11 7:00 PM ET @ MTL Tue, Nov 14 7:00 PM ET @ PIT Fri, Nov 17 7:30 PM ET @ DET Sat, Nov 18 7:00 PM ET vs. CAR Mon, Nov 20 7:00 PM ET vs. CBJ Wed, Nov 22 7:00 PM ET vs. MIN Fri, Nov 24 7:00 PM ET vs. EDM Sat, Nov 25 7:00 PM ET @ MTL Tue, Nov 28 7:00 PM ET vs. TBL Fri, Dec 1 7:00 PM ET vs. PIT Sat, Dec 2 7:00 PM ET @ PIT Tue, Dec 5 9:00 PM ET @ COL Fri, Dec 8 8:30 PM ET @ CHI Sun, Dec 10 7:00 PM ET @ STL Tue, Dec 12 7:00 PM ET vs. OTT Thu, Dec 14 7:00 PM ET @ PHI Fri, Dec 15 7:00 PM ET vs. CAR Tue, Dec 19 7:00 PM ET vs. BOS Fri, Dec 22 7:00 PM ET vs. PHI Sat, Dec 23 7:00 PM ET @ CAR Wed, Dec 27 7:00 PM ET @ NYI Fri, Dec 29 7:00 PM ET @ NJD Mon, Jan 1 1:00 PM ET vs. NYR Thu, Jan 4 8:00 PM ET @ MIN Fri, Jan 5 8:00 PM ET @ WPG Sun, Jan 7 1:00 PM ET @ PHI Tue, Jan 9 7:00 PM ET vs. WPG Thu, Jan 11 7:00 PM ET vs. CBJ Thu, Jan 18 7:00 PM ET @ NYR Sat, Jan 20 1:00 PM ET vs. DAL Mon, Jan 22 9:00 PM ET @ CGY Tue, Jan 23 9:00 PM ET @ EDM Thu, Jan 25 10:00 PM ET @ VAN Tue, Jan 30 7:00 PM ET vs. NJD Thu, Feb 1 7:00 PM ET vs. FLA Sat, Feb 3 7:00 PM ET vs. STL Tue, Feb 6 7:00 PM ET vs. ANA Thu, Feb 8 7:00 PM ET vs. NYI Sat, Feb 10 7:00 PM ET @ BOS Sun, Feb 11 7:00 PM ET vs. COL Tue, Feb 13 7:00 PM ET vs. TBL Thu, Feb 15 7:30 PM ET @ OTT Sat, Feb 17 1:00 PM ET vs. LAK Mon, Feb 19 3:00 PM ET vs. WSH Thu, Feb 22 7:30 PM ET @ DET Sat, Feb 24 7:00 PM ET @ WSH Sun, Feb 25 5:00 PM ET vs. BOS Wed, Feb 28 7:00 PM ET @ TBL Fri, Mar 2 7:30 PM ET @ FLA Mon, Mar 5 7:00 PM ET vs. TOR Wed, Mar 7 7:30 PM ET vs. CGY Thu, Mar 8 7:30 PM ET @ OTT Sat, Mar 10 1:00 PM ET vs. VGK Thu, Mar 15 7:00 PM ET vs. TOR Sat, Mar 17 1:00 PM ET vs. CHI Mon, Mar 19 7:00 PM ET vs. NSH Wed, Mar 21 7:00 PM ET vs. ARI Fri, Mar 23 7:00 PM ET vs. MTL Sat, Mar 24 7:00 PM ET @ NYR Mon, Mar 26 7:00 PM ET @ TOR Thu, Mar 29 7:00 PM ET vs. DET Sat, Mar 31 8:00 PM ET @ NSH Mon, Apr 2 7:00 PM ET @ TOR Wed, Apr 4 7:30 PM ET vs. OTT Fri, Apr 6 7:30 PM ET @ TBL Sat, Apr 7 7:00 PM ET @ FLA

Too many games, I did something wrong

Randall, you sure about this?

wikipedia says that the only Buffalo pick that has moved is the 3rd to Minnesota for their 4th. So an extra 4th, no 3rd.

Could you recommend one? I try this each year, and I stop reading when someone says something like 'All shot percentages are the same, therefore...'

This is my understanding: Let's say the cap is 70m, and the floor is 50m. They find these two numbers based upon guessing that revenues will average 120m/team, thus 60m go to each team for players. Now we don't know what each team is going to spend on players, some teams spend 50m, some teams spend 70m, so if the average team spends more than 60m or revenues are less than 120m/team, then the owners still want their 50%. How they get their 50% is to keep part of each contract, called escrow, so instead of your favorite player making 2m/year, he makes ( if 15% is the number) 1.7m/year. At they end of the year, they total up the revenues, divide by 2, subtract the total contracts, that gives each side 50%, and any leftover goes to the players. If the average team spends 60m on contracts, and Hockey Related Revenue averages 120m/team, then each player gets their 15% back.

yes, more positive is good

I posted some of this last week, but I needed to work on the data a bit, so I did that. I decided to order goaltenders by per 60. Meaning that I took what the goaltender should have given up per 60 based upon the distance of the shots(let's say 3), minus what they actually gave up (let's say 2.5) to give the goaltender a .5 per 60. Following that is the raw number. Let's say that he should have given up 100, and he gave up 90, he'd be at 10. The numbers seem a bit positive, part of it is that I didn't bother with all goaltenders (if you play only a few games, it's likely your number is negative), and part of it is probably a math error somewhere. The goal here was to create a chart with per 60 on one axis and contract on the other, to give an idea of what Lehner is worth, but with many expensive goaltenders being not so good, and some great though unheralded being very cheap, it's probably a useless chart. The stat isn't perfect, my current theory is that a poor defensive player will have more goals scored on them than their shot distance would predict, but I think it's better than other stats out there. Do notice that (likely) the two most analytic teams traded for unheralded goaltenders who had really great years. Darling .88 21.6 Bob .81 49.8 Murray .61 28.3 Price .59 25.2 Howard .57 13.4 Gibson .53 24.5 Grubauer .52 11 Raanta .52 14.2 Talbot .48 34.9 Holtby .44 27.5 Anderson (Ottawa) .44 Saros .43 8.6 Crawford .47 21.6 Quick .35 5.4 Nilsson .34 7.4 Smith .32 15.3 Greiss .31 14.5 Halek .29 7.8 Markstrom .27 6.6 Fleury .27 9.7 Reimer .25 9.8 Miller .24 12.5 Andersen (Toronto) .22 13.8 Jones .22 14 Bernier .22 5.2 Dubnyk .19 12.2 Rinne .19 11.3 Budaj/Bishop (Los Angeles - They had the same number) .15 8.8 Luongo .14 5.6 Johnson .14 4.6 Montoya .14 2.6 Lehner .13 6.2 Allen .13 7.2 Kinkaid .12 3 Lundqvist .1 5.5 Condon .1 3.7 Hutton .09 2.8 Elliot .08 3.1 Schneider .02 .9 Vasilevskiy .02 1.3 Lehtonen -.01 -.3 Rask -.03 -1.3 Bishop -.03 -1 Ward -.06 -3.2 Mason -.08 -4.5 Pickard -.1 -3.8 Mrazek -.11 -5 Korpisalo -.11 -1.4 McElhinney (Toronto) -.17 -2.9 Domingue -.19 -4.4 Lack -.34 -3.8 Khudobin -.37 -4.6 Newvirth -.38 -8.6 Kuemper -.43 -7.5 Niemi -.46 -13.4 Varlamov -.47 -10.6

For me, It's about the relationship their scoring has to the rest of the team

eliteprospects has a buttton that pronounces the players name, as far as Nathan's goes, I hear an 'l', I would write it as bowl-yer

Josefsson did not play PK last year

I tried to approach this trade from Minnesota's point of view. While I suspect Minnesota hates Pominville as much as Buffalo hates Ennis, they save 1m in cap, but 2m in actual dollars. So I think, in the end, it's a fracking deal (front loading contracts so you can rid yourself of bad contracts to teams trying to make money). Scandella has become their 5th best defenseman, and at 4m cap, and escalating dollar amounts, he needed to go. I don't think it's a good trade for Minnesota on the ice, but it will save them some dollars the next couple years. I think it's a good trade for Botterill, I think Scandella's a legitimate second pair I'm most interested in who gets PK ice time if Georges is in the press box. Risto/Georges were OK, Risto/McCabe together last year were terrible.

I guess my ambivalence comes from needing a defenseman or two against the other teams top lines, for me, defensively, Risto's a 3, McCabe's a 4. Want to go back to Georges again? A couple defensemen moved lately that would have helped, Smith or Hjalmarsson. So sure, sign Butcher, but he's not solving your problem this season.

I have him very comparable to Anthony Florentino, though I'm probably penalizing his size too much. The past 3 years he averages at about 30th best D in his draft class. Let me change my answer, Rochester? Sure, sign him up.

No

Nonsense, check out my draft contest from 2014, Button had an excellent draft using those picks, mine was really good. Tim Murray's sucked.

I'm happy having Chychrun in my draft contest, but the best play last year was getting ahead of AZ to take Keller. This year, I thought the first 12 players were almost equivalent. Middlestadt? fine, Vilardi? fine, at least they didn't do something stupid. I prefer Liljegren, but not by enough to be upset about it.

Nyberg?

How do I change the topic to make is Mom's Basement Stakes (rakii's draft contest)? The results are in, we next look at this for the WJC to see how your players did. It's actually a good first indicator. Botterill: 8 Casey Mittelstadt (C/LW) 37 Marcus Davidsson (C/W) 54 Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (G) 89 Oskari Laaksonen (D) 99 Jacob Bryson (D) 192 Linus Weissbach (LW/RW) rakish: 8 TIMOTHY LILJEGREN (D) 37 Mason Shaw (F) 54 Joshua Brook (D) 89 Mikey Anderson (D) 99 ARTYOM MINULIN (D) 192 BRINSON PASICHNUK (D) Craig Button: 8 Gabriel Vilardi © 37 Alexei Lipanov © 54 Morgan Geekie (C/RW) 89 Evan Barratt © 99 Matthew Strome (LW) 192 Cayden Primeau (G) Pronman 8 Gabriel Vilardi C 37 Ivan Lodnia RW 54 Joni Ikonen (C/RW) 89 David Farrance D 99 Markus Phillips (D) 192 David Kvasnicka D McKenzie 8 Gabe Vilardi C 37 Jason Robertson (LW) 54 Michael DiPietro (G) 89 Ostap Safin (RW) 99 Lucas Elvenes (RW) 192 Cayden Primeau (G) canucksarmy 8 Gabriel Vilardi © 37 Aleksi Heponiemi © 54 Grant Mismash © 89 Mason Shaw © 99 Matthew Strome (LW) 192 Artyom Minulin (D) wingnut 8 Vilardi, Gabriel © 37 Maxime Comtois (C/LW) 54 Nikita A. Popugayev (RW) 89 Matthew Strome (LW) 99 Ostap Safin (RW) 192 Artem Minulin (D)

Yeah, I edited that statement because it was both confusing and wrong

Elite prospects puts out a list of about 600, neither of Laaksonen and Brinson made it, but they are bad at overagers (Brinson is overage)

In 2014 I got off the Tim Murray bus

Overagers are a very undervalued pick, this one, looks a little small to me

I had forgotten that the Devils hired a data analyst last year who knows what they are doing. I thought only I liked Boqvist

funny tweet from Gerbe this week. Its his living room with 4 kids, 3 watching TV, one hitting a puck with a stick. Nathen wonders which is his.