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rakish

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Everything posted by rakish

  1. There are different strategies playing hockey. One strategy tries to not give up good shots. If you are trying to not give up good shots, you use techniques like dump and chase because failing to carry a puck into the opponent's zone often leads to the other team having an odd man rush the other way. One team that tried to win using shooting percentage against was the Buffalo Sabres. Another strategy tries to maximize the shot differential on the theory that the quantity of shots is more important. A couple of teams that maximized shots last season were the LA Kings and the Boston Bruins. A goaltender in the shooting percentage strategy will face more shots, but they will face less difficult chances. If you measure goaltenders by their save percentage, the goaltenders for teams using this strategy will be better, because save percentage is a bad stat, the stat needs more context. For me Lehner's stats aren't freaking bad, but they're not freaking good either (I had him at about 30th last year, I had Nilsson considerably better), but there are problems (though less I think) with how I calculate that.
  2. My view is he's not an NHL player, Asplund is better, Mittelstadt is better, Pu won't need to be on a top line. I might be wrong.
  3. Prospects are back for game 2 of 3, so I expect some lineup changes, but no one tells me anything, or 'my sources say nothing.' Boston's roster: Forwards: Anders Bjork, Shawn Boudrias*, Jake DeBrusk, Ryan Fitzgerald, Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, Jesse Gabrielle, Alex Gacek*, James Hamblin*, Danton Heinen, Justin Hickman, Joona Koppanen, Sean Kuraly, Cedric Pare, Zach Senyshyn, Oskar Steen. Defensemen: Victor Berglund, Connor Clifton*, Matt Grzelcyk, Owen Headrick*, Emil Johansson, Jeremy Lauzon, Charlie McAvoy, Rob O’Gara, Ethan Sakowich*, Jakub Zboril. Goaltenders: Kyle Keyser*, Luke Richardson*. *camp invites Boston is, rather surprisingly, full of rakish approved prospects. McAvoy, Zboril, Johansson, Bjork, DeBrusk, Forsbacka Karlsson, Heinen. In addition, Senyshyn is a first round pick. Streaming: sabres.com Radio: WGR Tickets: 10 bucks
  4. Prospects begin their year against Will Butcher and the New Jersey Devils. The Sabres roster includes veteran prospects Justin Bailey, Nic Baptiste, Hudson Fasching, and CJ Smith. rakish approved prospects like Brendan Guhle, Cliff Pu. Former number 8 overall pick Alex Nylander. Not here: Mittelstadt, Asplund New Jersey's roster includes Nico and Will. rakish approved propects John Quenneville and Steve Santini. Another top pick is Michael McLeod. Not here: Joseph Anderson Questions to be answered: Was Nico the right choice? When will Dudacek give up on the the Rochester 4? Will Butcher, yes or no? Will Will leave the fabled Sabres bag for a lucky fan? How many fans will think the word 'Dreamy' when they see Nylander? 7:00, streaming: sabres.com radio: yes 10 bucks at the door.
  5. Yep, scoring is contextual. Eichel scores near Draisaitl only because of his situation. These are some comparables, he is well ahead of each, except tied with Matthews, leaving him tied for 3rd among players drafted since 2005 (that's all I bothered to do data for) Toews Kane Draisaitl Pastrnak Stamkos Tavares Matthews Tarsenko
  6. Reading through the settings, 1:00 Sunday is the deadline https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/survival/11971/groupsettings/
  7. You think the old boy network comes from the GM level, or the ownership level?
  8. He got some PK time last year in Colorado, so he deserves a 'd' in his name, but we cannot encourage him becoming captain, so no 'C' in Dy Glubef
  9. Mr Jones. You often get shouted down here so far, but let me say, I love your perspective.
  10. What I have: Eichel in 2015 14.99/gm 1214 even strength min 1.73 points per 60 with Girgensons 265 even strength min, 2.26 points per 60 with Reinhart 395 even strength min, 1.22 pp60 with Kane 435 es min, 1.24 pp60 with Moulson 198 es min, 2.42 pp60 with Bailey 25 es min, 2.4 pp60 Eichel in 2016 16.26/gm 992 even strength min, 2.00 pp60 with Girg 40.6 es min, 0 pp60 with Reinhart 550 es min, 1.86 pp60 with Kane 287 es min, 2.51 pp60 with Moulson 196 es min, 1.94 pp60 with Bailey 22 es min, 10.74 pp60
  11. I prefer goals for - shorthanded goals against as a better metric for two reasons. One is that PP% doesn't take into account shorthanded goals against (Holy cow, look at the shorthanded goals against Dallas, they must have really bad talent), and Two, it allows you to give meaning to the stat (the Sabres PP was plus 53, the average (roughly) is 40, so the PP helped to a tune of 13 goals, the PK cost them 10 goals, Nilsson helped them a few, Lehner probably even, etc). So looking back a year, what would you have predicted then? League leader San Jose went from 55 to 35 from the previous, to last year. Also ran, in 15-16, Tampa gained 17 while losing Stamkos for most of the year, finishing tied for first. Also ran Pittsburgh got much better with worse talent (I believe Letang was healthy 2 years ago, and not last year, but I could be wrong). Also ran Buffalo got much better, going from 43 to 53 with similar talent. The third thing: Buffalo has OK top end talent, but excellent top end talent? I have my doubts. And fourth, as far as this year, I think what you're going to see is opposing teams watching tape. Eichel's not going to get the open one-timer he got last year.
  12. 'They' needs to be capitalized.
  13. No person has a clue how to evaluate QBs Sean is a person
  14. Liger is referencing a character from Jungle Book. I was watching the animated Robin Hood with my nephew Patrick, age 5. I decide to troll my nephew "Pat, doesn't Friar Tuck look a lot like Baloo from Jungle Book?' 'Of course Uncle rake, they're played by the same actor.' As it turns out, Patrick was right, Disney was drawing their characters to look like the voice actors, and Baloo and Friar Tuck were played by the same actor.
  15. I believe, for the NHL, it's not a 'fairness to the teams' issue, it's a 13th amendment issue (yeah, I'm going to make you look it up). The NHL has something that seems to be settled law, therefore they have no interest in giving the opportunity to have to defend a rule in court that they currently do need to defend.
  16. Regarding Dumoulin vs Butcher, this is what I have http://45b.us/hockey/2.php?year=2013,2009&pick=123,51 And it's true, Butcher gets a big deduction for being 5'9 1/2 at age 17 (that's what I have anyway), so I created a new chart called 2flat, everyone's size doesn't matter, so there's no deduction for Butcher's size http://45b.us/hockey/2flat.php?year=2013,2009&pick=123,51 He's still well behind Dumoulin using my charts.
  17. I have Carolina having the best goaltending, not the worst. Darling had a very good year last year.
  18. Is this part of your 'why I should have gone to Florida State' narrative? I'm confused.
  19. It will be interesting to see how Risto is used this year. It would be great to have him on the second pair, but who then plays against Crosby or McDavid? At the least he should get less minutes, which would be good. I'm pretty much with ink on this one, I think he'll get better. As for the article, it's terrible. Nashville and Buffalo play different styles, the article has the same problem as the arguments that Lehner is really good because his save percentage is really good, you got to look at some context as to the difficulty of the shots.
  20. In another thread I listed save percentage by feet, so it's more accurate than save percentage because close shots count more than long shots. The result is that Lehner saved the sabres 6.2 goals more than average (it's somewhat negative, which I haven't figured out why yet) and that, per 60, saves the sabres .13 goal per 60. That was 32nd in the league, if I count right. Somehow I missed Winnipeg, but everyone on Winnipeg was worse than Lehner. Do notice that 2 of the most analytic teams grabbed goaltenders high on this list.
  21. I'm changing my guess to Girgensons
  22. Maybe this It has some similarities to a Nikita Zadorov signed card
  23. Missed that, my mistake
  24. Vanek was traded by Regier
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