rakish

Buffalo 3-1 over Columbus at home 55 RISTOLAINEN7.07 90 O'REILLY6.92 6 SCANDELLA6.91 15 EICHEL6.74 29 POMINVILLE6.58 9 KANE6.53 67 POULIOT6.31 21 OKPOSO6.12 35 Ullmark 5.83 19 MCCABE5.44 45 GUHLE5.12 23 REINHART4.90 71 RODRIGUES4.86 28 GIRGENSONS4.85 22 LARSSON4.83 41 FALK4.32 20 WILSON3.67 17 NOLAN3.58 82 BEAULIEU3.25

A home game for Buffalo, Winnipeg wins 7-4 29 POMINVILLE7.35 90 O'REILLY6.95 55 RISTOLAINEN6.80 9 KANE6.71 6 SCANDELLA6.70 10 JOSEFSON6.61 40 Lehner 6.37 17 NOLAN5.90 15 EICHEL5.62 21 OKPOSO5.47 31 JOHNSON5.26 47 BOGOSIAN5.22 19 MCCABE5.10 28 GIRGENSONS5.07 82 BEAULIEU4.97 45 GUHLE4.44 22 LARSSON4.08 71 RODRIGUES3.77 20 WILSON3.51 23 REINHART3.38

oh absolutely. but I think I read Mel's list is 24 players long. Is that enough that you should be considered an expert? I don't watch football (because of the whole concussion thing), but their comparables in the hockey world are not very good, yet they get quoted like God by hockey fans.

that's why I do Mom's Basement Stakes for hockey. There's a lot a people that ought to be ignored

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/05/25/equally-inaccurate-an-analysis-of-mel-kiper-jr-and-todd-mcshays-draft-rankings/

I guess for some people

I think this is true

posted in the 2014 NHL Draft Poll: Favorite/Least Favorite and Grade Posted 30 June 2014 - 06:44 AM /snip Tim Murray arrived in town with the second overall pick, 3 seconds, and the ability to take dead money from other teams, and left town farther away from Tampa in talent then he was before. I believe I am the first off the Tim Murray bus.

Flyers 4-1 in Philadelphia. The game during the Bills Playoff game. 6 SCANDELLA8.26 55 RISTOLAINEN8.23 9 KANE8.18 23 REINHART8.00 21 OKPOSO7.92 90 O'REILLY7.91 15 EICHEL7.86 28 GIRGENSONS7.66 40 Lehner 7.14 47 BOGOSIAN6.84 67 POULIOT6.65 22 LARSSON6.64 10 JOSEFSON6.61 19 MCCABE6.46 4 GORGES6.43 82 BEAULIEU6.12 29 POMINVILLE5.79 71 RODRIGUES5.74 20 WILSON5.48

Winnipeg, in Winnipeg, took an interesting approach, winning 4-3 17 NOLAN8.55 10 JOSEFSON8.21 22 LARSSON8.14 28 GIRGENSONS8.00 15 EICHEL7.92 23 REINHART7.87 20 WILSON7.74 55 RISTOLAINEN6.97 6 SCANDELLA6.77 29 POMINVILLE6.42 71 RODRIGUES6.40 31 JOHNSON6.14 4 GORGES5.98 19 MCCABE5.94 47 BOGOSIAN5.61 82 BEAULIEU5.20 9 KANE3.67 90 O'REILLY3.61 21 OKPOSO3.44

I think it was a good pick.

The horror! Checking through my drafting contest, Bob McKenzie, of all people, drafted Lukas Elvenes with the 99th pick. Fortunately for me, Bob's top pick, Vilardi, has been injured and hasn't played yet. Most everyone chose Vilardi, and 2 of my top 3 picks have been injured, so an update to Mom's Basement Stakes would be premature. This is the same data, not separating forwards and defensemans, in the form of a redraft. This is the 18 year olds, so any overagers won't be included. 1 ELIAS PETTERSSON 3234 SHL Växjö Lakers HC 2 FILIP CHYTIL 1820 AHL Hartford Wolf Pack 3 NICO HISCHIER 1431 NHL New Jersey Devils 4 TIMOTHY LILJEGREN 1407 AHL Toronto Marlies 5 EELI TOLVANEN 1387 KHL Jokerit 6 LUKAS ELVENES 1151 Allsvenskan IK Oskarshamn 7 MAXWELL GILDON 1140 NCAA Univ. of New Hampshire 8 KRISTIAN VESALAINEN 1127 Liiga HPK 9 ROBERT THOMAS 963 OHL London Knights 10 MORGAN FROST 952 OHL Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds 11 LIAS ANDERSSON 947 SHL Frölunda HC 12 ALEKSI HEPONIEMI 945 WHL Swift Current Broncos 13 MICHAEL ANDERSON 929 NCAA Univ. of Minnesota-Duluth 14 RYAN POEHLING 881 NCAA St. Cloud State Univ. 15 BENJAMIN MIRAGEAS 861 NCAA Providence College 16 BENTON MAASS 850 NCAA Univ. of New Hampshire 17 CODY GLASS 772 WHL Portland Winterhawks 18 NICOLAS HAGUE 759 OHL Mississauga Steelheads 19 NICK SUZUKI 740 OHL Owen Sound Attack 20 CASEY MITTELSTADT 738 NCAA Univ. of Minnesota 21 CONOR TIMMINS 729 OHL Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds 22 KOLE LIND 726 WHL Kelowna Rockets 23 MIRO HEISKANEN 719 Liiga HIFK 24 CAL FOOTE 694 WHL Kelowna Rockets 25 MARCUS DAVIDSSON 656 SHL Djurgårdens IF 26 JASON ROBERTSON 650 OHL Kingston Frontenacs 27 GRANT MISMASH 649 NCAA Univ. of North Dakota 29 MORGAN BARRON 618 NCAA Cornell Univ. 30 SHANE BOWERS 608 NCAA Boston Univ. 31 KRISTIAN RØYKÅS MARTHINSEN 602 J20 Elit Almtuna IS J20 32 MARTIN NECAS 583 Czech HC Kometa Brno 33 HENRI JOKIHARJU 575 WHL Portland Winterhawks 34 JUUSO VÄLIMÄKI 559 WHL Tri-City Americans 35 KIRILL MAXIMOV 549 OHL Niagara IceDogs 36 MICHAEL RASMUSSEN 544 WHL Tri-City Americans 37 OWEN TIPPETT 528 OHL Mississauga Steelheads 38 EEMELI RÄSÄNEN 523 OHL Kingston Frontenacs 39 REILLY WALSH 521 NCAA Harvard Univ. 40 STELIO MATTHEOS 505 WHL Brandon Wheat Kings 41 JACK STUDNICKA 493 OHL Oshawa Generals 42 ALEXANDRE TEXIER 487 Liiga KalPa 43 KLIM KOSTIN 481 AHL San Antonio Rampage 44 CALE FLEURY 468 WHL Regina Pats 45 BEN JONES 429 OHL Niagara IceDogs 46 JONAH GADJOVICH 416 OHL Owen Sound Attack 47 NOLAN PATRICK 400 NHL Philadelphia Flyers 48 ALEXANDER CHMELEVSKI 398 OHL Ottawa 67's 49 FILIP SVENINGSSON 389 SuperElit HV71 J20 50 IAN MITCHELL 384 NCAA Univ. of Denver

It's points (goals plus assists), times the rating for the league for your age (so scoring points as a 18 year old NCAA player is more valuable than a 22 year old NCAA player) Times the amount you outscore your team, or are being outscored by the best player (therefore, Eichel at 17 outscored his BU or Bost Col (whichever) by a lot, giving him huge bonus points, Middlestadt at 18 is being outscored by teammates, so fewer bonus points). This has an interesting tale end, as someone like Pu at 17 is undervalued because the rest of the team is good (this is hard to deal with). I think currently, defensemen are graded by how they outscore their defense teammates, but next time I feel motivated, I'll try to improve that metric. You're going to argue: 'Well yeah, being on a good team is different than being on a bad team' So: Times how good the team is. I use goal differential because some leagues have ties, and it made my brain hurt. Times how big the player is at 17. Evander Kane is always discounted some by my charts because he was really tiny at 17. Times your age. A player's output almost doubles each year, so a January born player has to be discounted as an August born player has to be bonused (turns out that's not a word) This is particularly tricky as the curve isn't straight (Really good January born players (McDavid and Stamkos, among others, were discounted too heavily previously because it doesn't matter to them, wereas a 4th round pick born in January never breaks out). I think that's it. Plus minus relative to your team turns out to be slightly inverse of what you think it should be, as far as I can tell.

2017 looks good at this point.

This time I sorted teams by how many top 20 players they have drafted in the past 5 years. I tried to get them to the right team, but I likely erred in some places. How do I read this? 3 PATRIK LAINE 1709 NHL Winnipeg Jets Patrik Laine is the 3rd highest rated forward for his draft, behind Matthews and Keller. This is only for the first half of the season, there's no prior stats factored in. The 1709 is his raw rating, roughly a 1000 is an NHL player, so Laine certainly clears that. The next two items are fairly self-explanatory. You will have complaints with Mittelstadt's ranking after his very nice WJC, but he hasn't scored much in college. Sabres that didn't make the top 20: 46 LINUS WEISSBACH 409 NCAA Univ. of Wisconsin 52 CLIFF PU 375 OHL London Knights 71 BRANDON HAGEL 271 WHL Red Deer Rebels 92 BRETT MURRAY 151 NCAA Penn State Univ. 124 VASILI GLOTOV 38 QMJHL Shawinigan Cataractes 39 SAM REINHART 666 NHL Buffalo Sabres 79 ERIC CORNEL 190 AHL Rochester Americans 81 CHRISTOPHER BROWN 177 NCAA Boston College 24 VICTOR OLOFSSON 920 SHL Frölunda HC 23 C.J. SMITH 923 AHL Rochester Americans 33 NICHOLAS BAPTISTE 632 AHL Rochester Americans 55 GUSTAV POSSLER 366 SHL Djurgårdens IF 93 SEAN MALONE 97 AHL Rochester Americans 44 BRYCEN MARTIN 158 ECHL Cincinnati Cyclones 36 WILLIAM BORGEN 344 NCAA St. Cloud State Univ. 55 CASEY FITZGERALD 190 NCAA Boston College 56 PHILIP NYBERG 176 NCAA Univ. of Connecticut 62 DEVANTE STEPHENS 138 ECHL Cincinnati Cyclones 40 AUSTIN OSMANSKI 197 OHL Peterborough Petes 43 VOJTECH BUDIK 160 WHL Prince Albert Raiders 42 OSKARI LAAKSONEN 119 Jr. A SM-liiga Ilves U20 It is fairly easy to get skipped, as you need to play 12 games in a league, which eliminated Justin Bailey. I think the AHL is graded too high, as is the ECHL. At the bottom is the rascatoons, my team from my draft contest. I'm one day hoping to play for the imaginary cup, once these guys age a bit. I think I can stop drafting defensemen for a couple years. Winnipeg 3 PATRIK LAINE 1709 NHL Winnipeg Jets 6 KRISTIAN VESALAINEN 1127 Liiga HPK 6 JACK ROSLOVIC 2151 AHL Manitoba Moose 7 SAMI NIKU 1366 AHL Manitoba Moose 7 JOSH MORRISSEY 1032 NHL Winnipeg Jets 8 NIKOLAJ EHLERS 1592 NHL Winnipeg Jets 10 KYLE CONNOR 1470 NHL Winnipeg Jets 12 BRENDAN LEMIEUX 1450 AHL Manitoba Moose 16 LOGAN STANLEY 430 OHL Kitchener Rangers 16 MASON APPLETON 1319 AHL Manitoba Moose 19 ERIK FOLEY 942 NCAA Providence College Los Angeles 3 MICHAEL ANDERSON 929 NCAA Univ. of Minnesota-Duluth 4 DOMINIK KUBALÍK 1954 NLA HC Ambrì-Piotta 7 JACOB MIDDLETON 814 AHL San Jose Barracuda 7 MICHAEL AMADIO 1674 AHL Ontario Reign 7 KALE CLAGUE 743 WHL Brandon Wheat Kings 9 COLE HULTS 670 NCAA Penn State Univ. 10 DOMINIK KUBALÍK 1418 Czech HC Plzen 15 ALEX LINTUNIEMI 638 AHL Ontario Reign 19 ADRIAN KEMPE 1120 NHL Los Angeles Kings Chicago 4 JONI TUULOLA 995 Liiga Sport 7 ALEXANDER DEBRINCAT 1231 NHL Chicago Blackhawks 8 CARL DAHLSTRÖM 1023 AHL Rockford IceHogs 10 HENRI JOKIHARJU 575 WHL Portland Winterhawks 12 CHAD KRYS 569 NCAA Boston Univ. 13 NICK SCHMALTZ 1445 NHL Chicago Blackhawks 14 GUSTAV FORSLING 675 NHL Chicago Blackhawks 15 LUCAS CARLSSON 782 SHL Brynäs IF 15 IAN MITCHELL 384 NCAA Univ. of Denver 17 JAKUB GALVAS 342 Czech HC Olomouc 17 RYAN HARTMAN 1050 NHL Chicago Blackhawks Arizona 2 CLAYTON KELLER 2299 NHL Arizona Coyotes 3 JAKOB CHYCHRUN 1552 NHL Arizona Coyotes 3 KYLE WOOD 1092 AHL Tucson Roadrunners 4 DYLAN STROME 2959 AHL Tucson Roadrunners 108 DYLAN STROME 145 NHL Arizona Coyotes 6 KYLE CAPOBIANCO 1381 AHL Tucson Roadrunners 14 NICHOLAS MERKLEY 1331 AHL Tucson Roadrunners 16 PIERRE-OLIVIER JOSEPH 369 QMJHL Charlottetown Islanders 17 CHRISTIAN FISCHER 1066 NHL Arizona Coyotes 18 MAX DOMI 1037 NHL Arizona Coyotes New Jersey 3 NICO HISCHIER 1431 NHL New Jersey Devils 4 JESPER BRATT 1424 NHL New Jersey Devils 4 WILL BUTCHER 1518 NHL New Jersey Devils 5 STEVEN SANTINI 1277 NHL New Jersey Devils 9 JOSH JACOBS 799 AHL Binghamton Devils 13 REILLY WALSH 521 NCAA Harvard Univ. 14 NATHAN BASTIAN 743 AHL Binghamton Devils 16 MIRCO MÜLLER 648 NHL New Jersey Devils 19 MILES WOOD 1024 NHL New Jersey Devils Columbus 1 ZACH WERENSKI 2096 NHL Columbus Blue Jackets 2 SETH JONES 2293 NHL Columbus Blue Jackets 10 PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS 1093 NHL Columbus Blue Jackets 11 OLIVER BJORKSTRAND 1415 NHL Columbus Blue Jackets 14 ALEXANDER WENNBERG 1195 NHL Columbus Blue Jackets 15 DILLON HEATHERINGTON 654 AHL Texas Stars 17 VLADISLAV GAVRIKOV 607 KHL SKA St. Petersburg 20 BLAKE SIEBENALER 580 AHL Cleveland Monsters 20 ANDREW PEEKE 358 NCAA Univ. of Notre Dame Carolina 2 NOAH HANIFIN 2090 NHL Carolina Hurricanes 5 JANNE KUOKKANEN 1369 AHL Charlotte Checkers 5 ROLAND MCKEOWN 873 AHL Charlotte Checkers 7 LUCAS WALLMARK 1621 AHL Charlotte Checkers 9 BRETT PESCE 993 NHL Carolina Hurricanes 9 SEBASTIAN AHO 1728 NHL Carolina Hurricanes 12 ELIAS LINDHOLM 1307 NHL Carolina Hurricanes 13 JAKE BEAN 552 WHL Calgary Hitmen 19 HAYDN FLEURY 594 NHL Carolina Hurricanes 20 VALENTIN ZYKOV 1011 AHL Charlotte Checkers Toronto 1 TIMOTHY LILJEGREN 1407 AHL Toronto Marlies 1 AUSTON MATTHEWS 3482 NHL Toronto Maple Leafs ** edited because, being born near the day separating years, he got into wrong year 9 EEMELI RÄSÄNEN 523 OHL Kingston Frontenacs 12 TRAVIS DERMOTT 873 AHL Toronto Marlies 13 ANDREW NIELSEN 832 AHL Toronto Marlies 13 MITCHELL MARNER 1417 NHL Toronto Maple Leafs 14 WILLIAM NYLANDER 1362 NHL Toronto Maple Leafs 20 KASPERI KAPANEN 1042 AHL Toronto Marlies Buffalo 5 JACK EICHEL 2283 NHL Buffalo Sabres 6 RASMUS RISTOLAINEN 1273 NHL Buffalo Sabres 8 BRENDAN GUHLE 1254 AHL Rochester Americans 11 RASMUS ASPLUND 877 SHL Färjestad BK 14 CASEY MITTELSTADT 738 NCAA Univ. of Minnesota 16 MARCUS DAVIDSSON 656 SHL Djurgårdens IF 16 ALEXANDER NYLANDER 722 AHL Rochester Americans 17 JACOB BRYSON 427 NCAA Providence College Tampa Bay 1 MIKHAIL SERGACHYOV 2895 NHL Tampa Bay Lightning 2 DOMINIK MASIN 1212 AHL Syracuse Crunch 5 BRAYDEN POINT 2074 NHL Tampa Bay Lightning 8 BEN THOMAS 810 AHL Syracuse Crunch 9 CAL FOOTE 694 WHL Kelowna Rockets 9 CARTER VERHAEGHE 1488 AHL Syracuse Crunch 15 LIBOR HÁJEK 430 WHL Saskatoon Blades 20 ERIK CERNAK 621 AHL Syracuse Crunch Edmonton 1 CONNOR MCDAVID 4281 NHL Edmonton Oilers 3 DARNELL NURSE 1644 NHL Edmonton Oilers 4 LEON DRAISAITL 2104 NHL Edmonton Oilers 14 ETHAN BEAR 791 AHL Bakersfield Condors 15 JESSE PULJUJÄRVI 742 NHL Edmonton Oilers 18 FILIP BERGLUND 639 SHL Skellefteå AIK 18 TYLER BENSON 675 WHL Vancouver Giants Calgary Flames 3 SEAN MONAHAN 1991 NHL Calgary Flames 3 MATTHEW TKACHUK 1450 NHL Calgary Flames 4 RASMUS ANDERSSON 1620 AHL Stockton Heat 10 ANDREW MANGIAPANE 1550 AHL Stockton Heat 11 JUUSO VÄLIMÄKI 559 WHL Tri-City Americans 11 OLIVER KYLINGTON 878 AHL Stockton Heat 14 RUSHAN RAFIKOV 805 KHL Lokomotiv Yaroslavl New York Rangers 2 FILIP CHYTIL 1820 AHL Hartford Wolf Pack 8 PAVEL BUCHNEVICH 1514 NHL New York Rangers 9 LIAS ANDERSSON 947 SHL Frölunda HC 18 RYAN GRAVES 405 AHL Hartford Wolf Pack 19 SEAN DAY 372 OHL Windsor Spitfires 20 MORGAN BARRON 618 NCAA Cornell Univ. 20 ROBIN KOVACS 903 SHL Luleå HF New York Islanders 4 BENJAMIN MIRAGEAS 861 NCAA Providence College 8 MATHEW BARZAL 1962 NHL New York Islanders 10 RYAN PULOCK 930 NHL New York Islanders 12 SEBASTIAN AHO 722 AHL Bridgeport Sound Tigers 16 ANATOLI GOLYSHEV 1095 KHL Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg 18 DAVID QUENNEVILLE 395 WHL Medicine Hat Tigers 19 MITCHELL VANDE SOMPEL 635 AHL Bridgeport Sound Tigers Nashville 4 EELI TOLVANEN 1387 KHL Jokerit 6 FRÉDÉRIC ALLARD 896 AHL Milwaukee Admirals 10 DANTE FABBRO 644 NCAA Boston Univ. 11 KEVIN FIALA 1498 NHL Nashville Predators 12 PATRICK HARPER 854 NCAA Boston Univ. 18 JACK DOUGHERTY 595 AHL Milwaukee Admirals 18 GRANT MISMASH 649 NCAA Univ. of North Dakota Philadelphia 5 IVAN PROVOROV 1485 NHL Philadelphia Flyers 8 MORGAN FROST 952 OHL Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds 6 WADE ALLISON 1313 NCAA Western Michigan Univ. 12 SAMUEL MORIN 872 AHL Lehigh Valley Phantoms 16 TRAVIS SANHEIM 638 NHL Philadelphia Flyers 17 ROBERT HÄGG 495 NHL Philadelphia Flyers 18 COOPER MARODY 987 NCAA Univ. of Michigan Vegas 1 SHEA THEODORE 2640 NHL Vegas Golden Knights 5 LUKAS ELVENES 1151 Allsvenskan IK Oskarshamn 6 NICOLAS HAGUE 759 OHL Mississauga Steelheads 12 CODY GLASS 772 WHL Portland Winterhawks 13 NICK SUZUKI 740 OHL Owen Sound Attack 18 ALEX TUCH 1156 NHL Vegas Golden Knights Ottawa 3 THOMAS CHABOT 1890 NHL Ottawa Senators 9 THOMAS CHABOT 1231 AHL Belleville Senators 11 MAX LAJOIE 627 AHL Belleville Senators 11 CHRISTIAN JAROS 725 AHL Belleville Senators 13 JONATHAN DAHLÉN 816 Allsvenskan Timrå IK 19 CHRISTIAN WOLANIN 398 NCAA Univ. of North Dakota 20 DRAKE BATHERSON 636 QMJHL Cape Breton Screaming Eagles Florida 1 AARON EKBLAD 1320 NHL Florida Panthers 2 MAXWELL GILDON 1140 NCAA Univ. of New Hampshire 2 ALEKSANDER BARKOV 2341 NHL Florida Panthers 10 ALEKSI HEPONIEMI 945 WHL Swift Current Broncos 12 DENIS MALGIN 1459 AHL Springfield Thunderbirds 20 IAN MCCOSHEN 396 NHL Florida Panthers Montreal 1 NIKITA SCHERBAK 2609 AHL Laval Rocket 11 RYAN POEHLING 881 NCAA St. Cloud State Univ. 13 JONATHAN DROUIN 1197 NHL Montréal Canadiens 14 CALE FLEURY 468 WHL Regina Pats 18 CALE FLEURY 334 WHL Kootenay Ice 19 JARRET TYSZKA 318 WHL Seattle Thunderbirds Colorado 1 NATHAN MACKINNON 3556 NHL Colorado Avalanche 7 MIKKO RANTANEN 1991 NHL Colorado Avalanche 7 CONOR TIMMINS 729 OHL Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds 11 NIKITA ZADOROV 920 NHL Colorado Avalanche 20 CALE MAKAR 310 NCAA UMass (Amherst) Vancouver 1 ELIAS PETTERSSON 3234 SHL Växjö Lakers HC 2 BROCK BOESER 3520 NHL Vancouver Canucks 5 BO HORVAT 1760 NHL Vancouver Canucks 5 OLLI JUOLEVI 1409 Liiga TPS 9 NIKOLAI GOLDOBIN 1591 AHL Utica Comets 15 KOLE LIND 726 WHL Kelowna Rockets St Louis 6 SAMUEL BLAIS 1719 AHL San Antonio Rampage 7 ROBERT THOMAS 963 OHL London Knights 8 TAGE THOMPSON 1203 AHL San Antonio Rampage 9 JORDAN KYROU 1198 OHL Sarnia Sting 13 JAKE WALMAN 691 AHL Chicago Wolves Boston Bruins 2 CHARLIE MCAVOY 2287 NHL Boston Bruins 3 DAVID PASTRNAK 2112 NHL Boston Bruins 6 DANTON HEINEN 1734 NHL Boston Bruins 15 JAKE DEBRUSK 1301 NHL Boston Bruins Dallas 6 JOHN NYBERG 846 SHL Frölunda HC 8 MIRO HEISKANEN 719 Liiga HIFK 14 JAKOB STENQVIST 452 Allsvenskan IF Björklöven 17 JASON ROBERTSON 650 OHL Kingston Frontenacs Anaheim 10 JACOB LARSSON 1143 AHL San Diego Gulls 10 MARCUS PETTERSSON 735 AHL San Diego Gulls 15 ONDREJ KASE 1344 NHL Anaheim Ducks Washington 4 LUCAS JOHANSEN 1411 AHL Hershey Bears 5 BENTON MAASS 850 NCAA Univ. of New Hampshire 13 MADISON BOWEY 805 NHL Washington Capitals Detroit 2 DYLAN LARKIN 2533 NHL Detroit Red Wings 8 FILIP HRONEK 701 AHL Grand Rapids Griffins 17 PATRICK HOLWAY 668 NCAA Univ. of Maine San Jose 16 JÉRÉMY ROY 762 AHL San Jose Barracuda 17 KEVIN LABANC 1247 NHL San Jose Sharks Minnesota 11 KIRILL KAPRIZOV 1463 KHL CSKA Moskva 17 LUKE KUNIN 700 AHL Iowa Wild 31 LUKE KUNIN 516 NHL Minnesota Wild Pittsburgh 15 JAKE GUENTZEL 1167 NHL Pittsburgh Penguins 16 DANIEL SPRONG 1161 AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins rakii rascatoons 1 TIMOTHY LILJEGREN 1407 AHL Toronto Marlies 3 JAKOB CHYCHRUN 1552 NHL Arizona Coyotes 3 MICHAEL ANDERSON 929 NCAA Univ. of Minnesota-Duluth 4 RASMUS ANDERSSON 1620 AHL Stockton Heat 4 JESPER BRATT 1424 NHL New Jersey Devils 5 BRAYDEN POINT 2074 NHL Tampa Bay Lightning 10 JOSH BROOK 673 WHL Moose Jaw Warriors 10 WILLIAM PETHRUS 606 Division 1 Mariestad BoIS 18 BRINSON PASICHNUK 430 NCAA Arizona State Univ. 20 KRISTAPS ZILE 426 KHL Dinamo Riga 20 ARTYOM MINULIN 322 WHL Swift Current Broncos

Minnesota 6-2 at the Wild 15 EICHEL6.17 23 REINHART5.98 28 GIRGENSONS5.90 9 KANE5.72 6 SCANDELLA5.67 55 RISTOLAINEN5.49 19 MCCABE5.22 90 O'REILLY5.15 41 FALK5.10 40 Lehner4.83 31 JOHNSON4.40 29 POMINVILLE4.39 21 OKPOSO4.19 10 JOSEFSON4.15 17 NOLAN4.10 47 BOGOSIAN4.01 22 LARSSON3.92 82 BEAULIEU3.35 71 RODRIGUES3.31 67 POULIOT3.23

I don't think the charts mean what you guys think they mean. Look at Ted's final year in Buffalo, he was famous for making the goaltender look good yet the chart makes it look like it's a disaster for the goaltender. Trying to follow goaltenders that have moved around, Chad from old Buffalo to new Buffalo, Darling from Chicago in 16-17 to Carolina 17-18, I can't connect any preconceived notions about what the chart ought to look like, to what it actually looks like. I think those charts might be useful as a comparison of goals against average, if anyone ever looks at goals against average, but I think it fails trying to tie the charts to save percentage because I think you are sliding between metrics. My charts, which I'm not real happy with, show Lehner has saved the Sabres 11.5 goals, the league leader is generally around 30 if I remember correctly, so on pace for 23 is really good, if that has any meaning, which I'm not sure it does.

New Years outdoors, Rangers 3-2 OT. Home team? I don't know. If the Sabres were the home team, the uniforms were the wrong color. 21 OKPOSO6.69 55 RISTOLAINEN6.60 90 O'REILLY6.49 9 KANE6.39 6 SCANDELLA6.34 22 LARSSON5.14 40 Lehner 5.01 29 POMINVILLE4.89 10 JOSEFSON4.85 71 RODRIGUES4.71 17 NOLAN4.55 67 POULIOT4.44 4 GORGES4.42 19 MCCABE3.95 15 EICHEL3.89 28 GIRGENSONS3.87 47 BOGOSIAN3.81 23 REINHART3.81 82 BEAULIEU3.73

Carolina 4-2 on the road 9 KANE8.16 22 LARSSON8.03 21 OKPOSO6.98 55 RISTOLAINEN6.81 6 SCANDELLA6.77 47 BOGOSIAN6.43 29 POMINVILLE6.31 31 JOHNSON6.15 10 JOSEFSON5.84 15 EICHEL5.82 17 NOLAN5.78 19 MCCABE5.64 28 GIRGENSONS5.57 82 BEAULIEU5.45 23 REINHART5.32 4 GORGES5.20 20 WILSON5.01 67 POULIOT4.72 71 RODRIGUES4.66 Islanders 3-2 in Overtime Road game 28 GIRGENSONS7.99 6 SCANDELLA7.93 55 RISTOLAINEN7.80 15 EICHEL7.79 29 POMINVILLE7.58 67 POULIOT7.55 71 RODRIGUES7.48 23 REINHART7.40 40 Lehner7.19 10 JOSEFSON6.90 47 BOGOSIAN6.87 9 KANE6.86 17 NOLAN6.77 21 OKPOSO6.67 19 MCCABE6.66 90 O'REILLY6.66 82 BEAULIEU6.49 41 FALK6.37 22 LARSSON6.27 Buffalo 4-3 in New Jersey 28 GIRGENSONS7.37 23 REINHART6.94 15 EICHEL6.61 90 O'REILLY6.13 21 OKPOSO5.96 9 KANE5.79 19 MCCABE5.72 47 BOGOSIAN5.67 6 SCANDELLA5.57 40 Lehner 5.32 55 RISTOLAINEN5.30 82 BEAULIEU4.63 71 RODRIGUES4.40 29 POMINVILLE4.21 41 FALK4.14 67 POULIOT4.08 17 NOLAN4.01 22 LARSSON3.71 10 JOSEFSON3.69

Has anyone made a list? I missed it if you did. This is what I got, just looking at the rosters, so I could have missed people Finland: UKKO-PEKKA LUUKKONEN USA: CASEY MITTELSTADT Czech: VOJTECH BUDIK Sweden: MARCUS DAVIDSSON, ALEXANDER NYLANDER

Nice piece Flagg, I'm most happy that I'm not the only one bringing bad tidings on some prospects. I expect Jt to stop by criticizing quality of competition by shot differential, right Jt? That's going to happen... right?

Buffalo 4, Philadelphia 2 in Buffalo 90 O'REILLY10.33 21 OKPOSO9.42 9 KANE9.35 6 SCANDELLA9.27 55 RISTOLAINEN9.13 23 REINHART7.53 15 EICHEL7.43 28 GIRGENSONS7.38 40 Lehner 7.19 19 MCCABE6.87 47 BOGOSIAN6.60 22 LARSSON6.11 10 JOSEFSON5.45 29 POMINVILLE4.90 67 POULIOT4.45 20 WILSON4.2 54 GORGES3.44 17 NOLAN3.41 82 BEAULIEU3.35

These are the road games for Edmonton, it the opponent defensemen with the most PK minutes 97 MCDAVID5.18 56 YAMAMOTO5.12 19 MAROON4.63 29 DRAISAITL4.43 27 LUCIC4.40 6 LARSSON4.38 77 KLEFBOM4.31 83 BENNING4.17 98 PULJUJARVI4.16 33 TALBOT4.09 91 CAGGIULA4.09 25 NURSE4.01 1 dont know3.97 13 CAMMALLERI3.9 24 RUSSELL3.86 62 GRYBA3.74 81 AUVITU3.73 93 NUGENT-HOPKINS3.71 16 KHAIRA3.66 18 STROME3.62 55 LETESTU3.42 88 DAVIDSON3.39 26 PAKARINEN3.38 24 MALONE3.37 44 KASSIAN3.36 36 JOKINEN3.34 58 SLEPYSHEV2.86 12 WALKER2.40 As far as forwards, some(but not a lot of) teams will use a player like Larsson against McDavid, so on the road, McDavid sees the 3rd most offensive forward, behind Yam... and Lucic. Chicago on the road, these are the opponent defenseman minutes on the pk 8 SCHMALTZ5.00 88 KANE4.97 19 TOEWS4.77 34 dont know4.76 20 SAAD4.75 11 FRANSON4.70 2 KEITH4.61 14 PANIK4.60 15 ANISIMOV4.5644 RUTTA4.3550 CRAWFORD4.276 KEMPNY4.267 SEABROOK4.2331 dont know4.1642 FORSLING4.1240 HAYDEN4.0338 HARTMAN3.9682 OESTERLE3.8412 DEBRINCAT3.815 MURPHY3.8010 SHARP3.7057 WINGELS3.6617 BOUMA3.3448 HINOSTROZA2.7867 KERO2.48 Road games for Chicago, the other coach seems more incline to their offensive players against players other than Kane or Toews. 48 HINOSTROZA6.98 44 RUTTA6.87 20 SAAD6.82 14 PANIK6.79 88 KANE6.73 19 TOEWS6.63 42 FORSLING6.45 67 KERO6.3250 CRAWFORD6.318 SCHMALTZ6.257 SEABROOK6.142 KEITH6.126 KEMPNY6.0915 ANISIMOV5.8040 HAYDEN5.6538 HARTMAN5.6031 dont know5.5957 WINGELS5.5317 BOUMA5.4111 FRANSON5.3012 DEBRINCAT5.2210 SHARP5.225 MURPHY5.2082 OESTERLE4.8534 dont know4.61 Pittsburgh on the road, opponents defensemen PK minutes 5 TROTMAN4.71 87 CROSBY4.69 35 JARRY4.49 72 HORNQVIST4.4 44 SCHULTZ4.38 23 WILSON4.37 71 MALKIN4.3243 SHEARY4.2758 LETANG4.2559 GUENTZEL4.208 DUMOULIN4.1981 KESSEL4.131 DESMITH4.1217 RUST4.0230 MURRAY3.963 MAATTA3.9562 HAGELIN3.8928 COLE3.8831 dont know3.7822 HUNWICK3.762 RUHWEDEL3.7349 SIMON3.7334 KUHNHACKL3.7033 MCKEGG3.5518 CORRADO3.4875 REAVES3.3837 ROWNEY3.3815 SHEAHAN3.2845 ARCHIBALD2.95 Pittsburgh on the road, opponent forward pp minutes 31 dont know7.28 87 CROSBY7.17 8 DUMOULIN7.02 58 LETANG7.01 43 SHEARY6.76 59 GUENTZEL6.69 72 HORNQVIST6.6222 HUNWICK6.5717 RUST6.4762 HAGELIN6.384 SCHULTZ6.3381 KESSEL6.3230 MURRAY6.2971 MALKIN6.2637 ROWNEY6.2049 SIMON6.181 DESMITH6.1145 ARCHIBALD5.9915 SHEAHAN5.9823 WILSON5.932 RUHWEDEL5.923 MAATTA5.8635 JARRY5.8228 COLE5.8234 KUHNHACKL5.3733 MCKEGG5.2575 REAVES4.7118 CORRADO4.015 TROTMAN3.50

These are Ottawa's 17 home games: Opponent PP forward 67 HARPUR8.72 10 PYATT7.12 44 PAGEAU7.04 5 CECI7.02 2 PHANEUF6.66 29 ODUYA6.39 15 SMITH6.32 68 HOFFMAN6.24 9 RYAN6.08 41 ANDERSON6.06 95 DUCHENE6.06 61 STONE6.06 19 BRASSARD5.80 7 TURRIS5.77 17 THOMPSON5.76 65 KARLSSON5.67 18 DZINGEL5.66 1 dont know5.62 49 DIDOMENICO5.60 33 CLAESSON5.32 89 MCCORMICK5.27 78 CHLAPIK5.07 74 BOROWIECKI5.06 14 BURROWS4.95 53 RODEWALD4.93 6 WIDEMAN3.98 59 FORMENTON3.90 21 BROWN3.74 13 PAUL3.66 40 DUMONT3.47 72 CHABOT1.57 These are his teammates in those 17 home games: 95 DUCHENE11.26 9 RYAN11.17 61 STONE10.82 19 BRASSARD10.47 68 HOFFMAN8.81 7 TURRIS8.76 18 DZINGEL8.55 65 KARLSSON8.08 74 BOROWIECKI7.78 33 CLAESSON7.46 1 dont know7.28 41 ANDERSON7.20 21 BROWN7.19 2 PHANEUF7.12 29 ODUYA7.02 6 WIDEMAN6.91 15 SMITH6.78 5 CECI6.62 14 BURROWS5.93 72 CHABOT5.70 67 HARPUR5.66 49 DIDOMENICO5.29 44 PAGEAU3.45 10 PYATT3.33 59 FORMENTON3.19 53 RODEWALD2.88 17 THOMPSON2.88 40 DUMONT2.39 89 MCCORMICK2.21 13 PAUL1.38 78 CHLAPIK1.23 Admittedly, Karlsson (at home) sees the best defensemen (at least those with the most PK time). Karlsson in 6th on the team, Phaneuf is in 7th. So looking at the two above lists, Karlsson (at home) plays with the best offensive players, but they hide him from the opponents best offensive players. He get the best usage possible. The html reports that I'm taking the data from are terrible for accuracy. When you add up the 10 seconds on this play, and the 7 seconds on this play, goaltenders don't play near 60 minutes. So I totally agree with you that the metric I use is less accurate than it ought to be, but I do what I can.

5x5 points has too much noise. Do you value Baptiste (2.04 points per 60) higher than Eichel (2.0 points per 60). Or do you value total points? Which means O'Reilly is considered an offensive player because he gets so many minutes. Ice time during goalie pulls is too binary. The great thing about power play time is that there's a spread. Last season the highest non-goaltender was Okposo at 3.9 minutes a game, Larsson was 19th at .42 minutes per game. Of course there's anomalies, Moulson got too much power play time, Kane not enough. Every stat has a simplicity/detail aspect where information is lost due to making it simple. Go back to the bad stat site where they list the most common linemates. If it was right, it gives you the information you want to know, if you know who Eichel and Kane are, so it's presupposing a whole lot of information which would make it useless unless you had a pretty good understanding of that team. I think what the on-ice opposition power play time stat brings out is a reality that is overlooked. For instance, people use minutes as the metric to measure defenseman, but I think it's fairly useless. For me, Erik Karlsson is Ottawa's 4th defenseman, because Ceci, Phaneuf, and Oduya play against the better offensive players, while the rest of this board wants to send 3 pieces to Ottawa to sign him long term and big money at age 27.