rakish

yeah, going through all the teams to see if I can learn anything. I thought you guys would be interested in how teams are trying to attack Buffalo (I posted such data each game last year)

Rosetta Stone: In Buffalo, at even-strength, Housley plays Risto against the other teams power play forwards. On the road, teams play their power play forwards against Skinner or Erod (or many other strategies, see the game by game list). Buffalo has a good record at home, they have a bad record on the road, you would think that Skinner's and Erod's stats would show some responsibility for the gap between home results and road results. They don't.

Who's line matching? Is it working for them? We're half-way through the 2018-2019 season, and we are going to examine the players that have very different usage at home as opposed to playing on the road. Maybe we'll find some hidden truths, some inner meaning, or maybe not. <br><br> The metric we're using is the even strength power-play time of the opponent forwards. Lets say you are on the ice against Eichel, who gets 4.5 minutes of PP time/game, Skinner, who gets 4.0 minutes of PP time/game, and Mittelstadt, who gets 1.2 minutes of PP time/game, for that segment your metric would be 9.7. Goaltenders usually have about 5.5 or 6.0, so that's the average. If the other team really wants their best offensive players to play against Eichel, his metric might be 8.0, if your coach is trying to hide you at home, it might be 3.0 or 4.0. <br><br> Sabres: At home, they play RISTOLAINEN (7.12) MCCABE (6.99) SCANDELLA (6.70) GIRGENSONS (6.67) against the other teams best forwards. At home they hide DAHLIN (5.21) HUNWICK (5.07) GUHLE (5.00) BEAULIEU (4.59) TENNYSON (2.94). The Sabres record at home is good, but they are being killed on the road. Accumulated metrics, CJ Smith is highest on the road, his one game against Boston was only 6.06, which isn't really that high for one game. The second highest is Skinner, who has better stats at home, but not to the level that would be killing the Sabres. Third is Erod, who scores a lot more on the road than at home, and his goal differential isn't why the Sabres lose on the road. The team has terrible results when Pilut plays on the road, but it doesn't seem to be him as his goal differential isn't that bad. I think it has to do more with the calendar. Pilut joined the Sabres after they won ten games in a row, since then they've been the worst team in hockey. He faces the same strength of opponent at home as on the road. The team wins at home with the recently released Remi Elie, and loses on the road, and while he's on the ice for some road goals, the other team doesn't play a stronger level of competition against him on the road. Dahlin faces the same level of competition, and has better goal results on the road. <br><br> Home Team -- Who their played the opponents best offensive forwards (2) Least offensive forwards played (2) -- Result <br><br> ARI: THOMPSON 8.09 BERGLUND 7.68 NELSON 3.58 BEAULIEU 3.29 BUF 3, ARI 0 <br> <b>VGK: EICHEL 6.68 REINHART 6.63 RODRIGUES 3.99 THOMPSON 3.98 VGK 4, BUF 1 </b><br> SJS: SOBOTKA 5.83 BEAULIEU 5.65 MITTELSTADT 2.32 OKPOSO 2.25 SJS 5, BUF 1 <br> LAK: EICHEL 6.62 SKINNER 6.45 LARSSON 4.69 GIRGENSONS 4.57 BUF 5, LAK 1 <br> ANA: BERGLUND 6.81 GIRGENSONS 6.81 EICHEL 3.22 SKINNER 3.20 BUF 4, ANA 2 <br> CBJ: LARSSON 7.24 BERGLUND 7.17 REINHART 5.52 EICHEL 5.45 CBJ 5, BUF 4 (OT) <br> OTT: BERGLUND 6.41 LARSSON 6.14 EICHEL 4.24 NELSON 3.93 OTT 4, BUF 2 <br> NYR: SKINNER 7.53 EICHEL 7.43 SOBOTKA 4.15 SHEARY 4.05 NYR 3, BUF 1 <br> MTL: BOGOSIAN 6.90 GIRGENSONS 6.35 MITTELSTADT 3.80 SHEARY 3.79 BUF 6, MTL 5 (OT) <br> WPG: LARSSON 7.96 THOMPSON 7.95 SOBOTKA 3.66 POMINVILLE 3.38 BUF 2, WPG 1 (SO) <br> MIN: DAHLIN 6.42 BERGLUND 6.36 THOMPSON 4.33 MCCABE 4.25 BUF 3, MIN 2 <br> PIT: SKINNER 6.66 EICHEL 6.30 SHEARY 3.64 BERGLUND 3.54 BUF 5, PIT 4 (OT) <br> DET: MITTELSTADT 5.42 BOGOSIAN 5.41 REINHART 4.62 RISTOLAINEN 4.49 BUF 3, DET 2 (SO) <br> TBL: EICHEL 8.35 REINHART 8.26 LARSSON 4.74 GIRGENSONS 4.62 TBL 5, BUF 4 <br> FLA: SKINNER 8.83 EICHEL 8.70 THOMPSON 3.98 OKPOSO 3.81 FLA 3, BUF 2 (OT) <br> NSH: THOMPSON 5.83 RODRIGUES 5.77 EICHEL 3.24 REINHART 3.18 NSH 2, BUF 1 <br> WSH: GIRGENSONS 9.16 RODRIGUES 8.72 BEAULIEU 4.97 TENNYSON 2.51 WSH 4, BUF 3 (SO) <br> BOS: RODRIGUES 6.72 POMINVILLE 6.62 SKINNER 3.15 REINHART 2.23 BUF 4, BOS 2 <br> WSH: REINHART 7.79 SKINNER 7.75 THOMPSON 5.21 GIRGENSONS 5.10 WSH 2, BUF 1 <br> STL: RODRIGUES 7.89 SOBOTKA 7.89 LARSSON 4.69 THOMPSON 4.31 STL 4, BUF 1 <br> BOS: SKINNER 8.53 REINHART 8.34 SOBOTKA 3.02 SHEARY 2.96 BOS 2, BUF 1 <br> CAR: SKINNER 8.43 EICHEL 8.32 MITTELSTADT 3.60 GIRGENSONS 3.23 CAR 4, BUF 3 <br> EDM: REINHART 9.04 SKINNER 8.93 THOMPSON 3.12 SHEARY 3.12 EDM 7, BUF 2 <br> CGY: RODRIGUES 8.00 POMINVILLE 7.94 BOGOSIAN 4.82 OKPOSO 4.81 BUF 4, CGY 3 (OT) <br> VAN: RODRIGUES 7.95 POMINVILLE 7.95 EICHEL 3.40 REINHART 3.33 VAN 4, BUF 3 <br> CBJ: GIRGENSONS 8.05 LARSSON 7.77 SCANDELLA 4.59 HUNWICK 4.54 BUF 5, CBJ 4 <br> DAL: MITTELSTADT 6.32 SHEARY 6.30 SOBOTKA 4.08 THOMPSON 3.98 DAL 1, BUF 0 <br>

I have something similar http://45b.us/hockey/17.html for the 17-18 season 8 BRENDAN GUHLE 1321 AHL Rochester Americans 12 BRENDAN GUHLE 1067 NHL Buffalo Sabres This means that in his AHL part of the year, Guhle's contextual (league or course, but also in relation to his teammates and size) scoring is 8th for defensemen in his draft class, and 12th for his time with the Sabres. The 1321 is a raw metric, a rule of thumb is a 1000 score means you are an NHL player. This is pre-draft and only ranks the previous season. Teams are ranked sloppily. I normally produce this list over Christmas as well, but I didn't this year, in the end I'm lazy.

Let's say the TB Lightning have 50 points. Imagine a formula that decides how many points they would have if each player was replaced by a 'Replacement Level Player', who we will call CJ Smith. So our formula uses stats like goals Kutcherov are on the ice for (cue your raised eyebrow) and who you play against, and how you do on the PP and how you do on the PK, and our formula decides the Lightning would have 45.4 points with CJ Smith instead of Kurcherov. The difference between Wins (50) and Wins Above Replacement (45.4) give Kutcherov a 4.6 (Wins Above Replacement) WAR, which is 95 percentile in the NHL, so his line is yellow, since his scoring is 100%, he leads the league. This formula likes Erik Cernak, Cernak plays against tough competition, he plays PK, the Lightning win because (according to the formula) his play, Cernak's WAR is 90%, even though he doesn't score. Now consider Patrick Kane. Let's say the Blackhawks have 35 points (I'm a bit too lazy to look up actual numbers). Replacing Kane with CJ Smith, our formula decides that the Blackhawks would only have 32.8 points, so Kane only helps 2.2 points. So even though Kane scores a lot, the Blackhawks don't win enough, and 2.2 WAR might be 50%. I don't believe that it's totally meaningless, but it's pretty close.

If you watch the Hurricane highlights against Nashville today, it looks like Carolina is working on this concept. For me, I don't want the puck holder to be behind the net, as it's harder to make the goaltender move, whereas the puck holder is very dangerous half way toward the corner.

Aurelius used to play with Tennyson, no?

71

No, the concern is how old is he really

Look, I don't believe in God either, but this is going too far.

I looked over Blue's shoulder when he was making picks. I always cheat from the wrong person. This reminds me of high school.

you can read my draft contest picks at 45b.us. I didn't figure out how to do this until 2016. My 14, and particularly 15 picks are embarrassing.

I always love to see your board liger. As to mine, I'm still downloading data. The first 4 on my board are almost normal, it's pick 5 where my list goes haywire.

I was going with a trade with Toronto.

I would try Queens. I would look for a hotel near the 7 line, which would be a direct train to Citi Field. Queens is less of a tourist destination than Manhattan, so prices ought to be less. Each 7 stop is a different immigrant community, so you can get real Asian, African, etc food without traveling like Woody. The train to the Bronx will be a couple trains, but it won't be bad. You take a train into Manhattan then get a 4 train up into the Bronx. You will likely want to walk around Manhattan, but I think it's a better choice to be out in Queens if baseball is your motivation for travel.

This is last year: BUF #15 EICHEL(1), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 10 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(1); #9 KANE(2) BUF #23 REINHART(2), Deflected, Off. Zone, 14 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(3); #29 POMINVILLE(4) BUF #67 POULIOT(4), Wrist, Off. Zone, 14 ft.Assists: #90 O'REILLY(7); #55 RISTOLAINEN(5) BUF #15 EICHEL(7), Wrist, Off. Zone, 43 ft.Assists: #9 KANE(10); #55 RISTOLAINEN(6) BUF #21 OKPOSO(3), Wrist, Def. Zone, 149 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(7); #9 KANE(11) BUF #67 POULIOT(8), Backhand, Off. Zone, 21 ft.Assists: #6 SCANDELLA(7); #55 RISTOLAINEN(8) BUF #9 KANE(14), Slap, Off. Zone, 30 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(9); #15 EICHEL(16) BUF #15 EICHEL(15), Snap, Off. Zone, 24 ft.Assists: #21 OKPOSO(11); #55 RISTOLAINEN(10) BUF #23 REINHART(6), Wrist, Off. Zone, 10 ft.Assists: #21 OKPOSO(12); #55 RISTOLAINEN(11) BUF #22 LARSSON(2), Backhand, Off. Zone, 6 ft.Assists: #10 JOSEFSON(2); #55 RISTOLAINEN(12) BUF #90 O'REILLY(10), Snap, Off. Zone, 37 ft.Assists: #15 EICHEL(21); #55 RISTOLAINEN(13) BUF #15 EICHEL(17), Slap, Off. Zone, 14 ft.Assists: #21 OKPOSO(16); #55 RISTOLAINEN(14) BUF #23 REINHART(8), Backhand, Off. Zone, 8 ft.Assists: #15 EICHEL(26); #55 RISTOLAINEN(15) BUF #15 EICHEL(19), Slap, Off. Zone, 47 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(16); #90 O'REILLY(20) BUF #23 REINHART(9), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 10 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(17); #15 EICHEL(27) BUF #15 EICHEL(20), Wrist, Off. Zone, 51 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(18); #21 OKPOSO(20) BUF #21 OKPOSO(9), Wrist, Off. Zone, 4 ft.Assists: #6 SCANDELLA(13); #55 RISTOLAINEN(19) BUF #90 O'REILLY(16), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 24 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(20); #21 OKPOSO(23) BUF #90 O'REILLY(17), Wrist, Off. Zone, 23 ft.Assists: #21 OKPOSO(24); #55 RISTOLAINEN(21) BUF #90 O'REILLY(18), Backhand, Off. Zone, 7 ft.Assists: #21 OKPOSO(25); #55 RISTOLAINEN(22) BUF #71 RODRIGUES(5), Slap, Off. Zone, 39 ft.Assists: #23 REINHART(19); #55 RISTOLAINEN(24) BUF #29 POMINVILLE(10), Slap, Off. Zone, 40 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(25); #90 O'REILLY(28) BUF #23 REINHART(16), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 14 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(26); #21 OKPOSO(27) BUF #29 POMINVILLE(11), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 23 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(27); #22 LARSSON(10) BUF #29 POMINVILLE(12), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 11 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(28); #71 RODRIGUES(12) BUF #67 POULIOT(13), Backhand, Off. Zone, 11 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(29); #23 REINHART(22) BUF #90 O'REILLY(21), Wrist, Off. Zone, 22 ft.Assists: #23 REINHART(24); #55 RISTOLAINEN(30) BUF #90 O'REILLY(22), Wrist, Off. Zone, 15 ft.Assists: #15 EICHEL(34); #55 RISTOLAINEN(31) BUF #23 REINHART(21), Snap, Def. Zone, 172 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(32); #15 EICHEL(35) BUF #21 OKPOSO(13), Wrist, Off. Zone, 35 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(33); #15 EICHEL(37) BUF #23 REINHART(24), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 10 ft.Assists: #55 RISTOLAINEN(34); #90 O'REILLY(36) BUF #92 NYLANDER(1), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 26 ft.Assists: #45 GUHLE(3); #55 RISTOLAINEN(35)

I'm in rural Virginia. I've been thinking about this idea myself, I call it the hot dog cart idea. Basically the difficulty of starting a hot dog cart is the underlying requirements, you not only need a cart, you need a commercial kitchen to support you. The idea is to start a commercial kitchen, build a handful of food carts, get the operation running, then push the whole operation on to one of hot dog cart operators, then move on to the next industry and do the whole thing over again. The idea comes from Township and Village Enterprises that were important in getting the Chinese economy going in the 1980s, except that my not-for-profit would take the roll of angel money supplier that the town governments did in China. It's also a variation of how the tech financing works in California. In some ways the past few months have been good for getting this idea rolling, as I've joined the board of the local museum, so I'm getting in contact with grant money options. In others, it's difficult, as the economy improves I get work that I wasn't getting a few years back, so it's difficult getting side projects going.

It's more important to have good process than good draft picks. Tavares doesn't help the Islanders, he allows Snow to keep his job longer. All the talent isn't helping Calgary, it just keeps the GM employed, McDavid doesn't help Edmonton, he just keeps the GM employed. Most of the good teams, Nashville, Tampa, Boston, Vegas, have very few top pick stars, but enough good process to make it work. Everyone would succeed picking first, let's see if Botterill can pick 4th and make the right decision.

You're going to keep me in suspense, aren't you?

Nah, judging from the reports from Syria, it's the year of the buffalo (again)

Check the standings, almost half the group lost 10 points

I'm thinking about starting a post to predict who wins the lottery, and why, if only to troll Flagg

I might have 4 counties this week too

I think Evan Rodriguez's mom works for the NHL and edits the highlights.

Ok, you guys aren't going to buy this one at all: Goaltender skill comes in the shape of a bell curve, and as such, there is a fair amount of difference between the best and the second best in the world, but very little difference between the 31st and the 62nd, meaning we can judge the context of the defense by the stats of the backup goaltender (see! I knew you'd go ape ###) The context of the defense isn't a stat we have, it has little to do with the distance of the shot, it has a lot to do with the pass just prior to the shot (does it move the goaltender?). A good example is the shot from the point, which is fairly meaningless if the goaltender can see it and it doesn't bounce off anything on the way. So valuing goaltenders is looking at the difference between your best guy and the standard backup. Does Johnson qualify as a standard backup? I think he does. On another subject, what do you do with Lehner? It looks like to me that things were said between Lehner and someone else, and he won't be back. If you offer him a contract, he might sign it.