rakish
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Posts posted by rakish
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14 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:
What do you mean by not competitive?
Look through the history: hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/2020-moms-basement-stakes.2769630/
The most extreme is 2016, Bob's results vs. Pronman. I haven't valued everyone in years, so the valuation is old, but as you can see, Pronman drafted half a team, and McKenzie, unless I'm wrong, got almost zero.
Pronman: Debrincat(6),Bratt(7),Nylander(12),Aho the Swede(17),Burke(32)*,Mete(38)*,Sokolov(49),David Quenneville(47,65),Somppi(84)
McKenzie: Nylander(12),Libor Hajek(16),Bitten(82),Getttinger(51),Kopacka(72)Pronman's results are good, Wheeler is good, @LGR4GMis good, Bob isn't, and yet, every year people get excited by Bob's list, fortunately no one quotes Central Scouting anymore.
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Last call on Mom's Basement Stakes.
It's an interesting year, I didn't spend much time on it, and like @LGR4GM, I fully expect my results to be embarrassing in 5 years.
One of the things I've learned doing this is to be aware of the consensus. If Lekkermakki goes before 9, I'll take Ohgren at 9 who liger will take at 16, which kills me because now my 16 needs to outplay his 9 in the future, therefore I need to update. I'll put Kasper after Lekkermakki. I'll update over at HF boards.
I started doing this 9 years ago because I wanted to demonstrate that consensus scouting lists (at the time Central Scouting, but now Bob's list) had really poor results. Last year I didn't even use Bob's list because he's not competitive. Trying to bring evidence to my argument hasn't helped, I've stopped arguing.
I think the importance of the draft is overstated. The Sabres were bad, I'm told they got kicked by Ottawa one night, someone said something, and suddenly they were good. Their talent didn't change that day, their drafting didn't change, but their mental approach did, and that's what good coaching does. They'll be good for 10 years here, I'm not sure they'll win a cup, their top line talent will be a bit short because their drafting sucks, but they'll be good.
Still, put together a list, we'll look at it in 5 years.
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20 minutes ago, Norcal said:
Wheres @rakishlist?
page 73, end of the post, it's just a draft list rather than a full list. Anyone that pick224 doesn't cover I don't have on the list. The 9-16-28 will likely be Lekkermaki-Ohgren-maybe Bichell, hard to guess
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I'm in rural Virginia, so I can't make it. Thanks for the thought though
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The excitement builds for Year 9 of Mom's Basement Stakes. Get your picks in, the stakes are really small. If you are new here, which I don't think is true for anyone, I take a purely mathematical approach to the draft, comparing my results to the usual suspects, the previous years can be found over at hfboards. https://hfboards.mandatory.com/tads/2020-moms-basement-stakes.2769630/
First we'll look at year 8. It's obviously early in the competition, so there's no judgements here. I no longer value all the players because it's too time consuming, so I only valued the players that were selected in Mom's last season, plus a couple, because I just had to see. A handful of players didn't get valued because they are in a league that pick 224 doesn't cover, like the VHL.
*** means he hasn't be drafted. Goaltenders? Who knows? The number is a valuation based on scoring in context.
Forwards
1 Aatu Räty Liiga 1079
2 Matthew Beniers NCAA 777
3 William Eklund SHL 756
4 Joshua Roy QMJHL 671
5 Logan Stankoven WHL 642
6 Chaz Lucius NCAA 624
7 Matvei Petrov OHL 620
8 Dylan Guenther WHL 612
9 Mikey Milne*** WHL 585
10 Francesco Arcuri OHL 581
11 Ty Voit OHL 538
12 Niko Huuhtanen WHL 504
13 James Stefan *** WHL 476
14 Connor Kurth *** USHL 471
15 Sasha Pastujov OHL 454
16 Riley Kidney QMJHL 444
17 Eric Alarie*** WHL 424
18 Conner Roulette WHL 416
19 Jeremy Wilmer*** USHL 386
20 Collin Graf *** NCAA 376
21 Tyson Kozak WHL 357
22 Kent Johnson USHL 334
23 Justin Robidas QMJHL 328
24 Trevor Wong overager*** WHL 324
25 Dylan Duke NCAA 315
26 Olivier Nadeau QMJHL 314
27 Sean Tschigerl WHL 313
28 Peter Reynolds *** QMJHL 312
29 James Malatesta USHL 312
30 Alexander Kisakov MHL 301
31 Connor Lockhart OHL 293
32 Hunter Strand*** NCAA 274
33 Robert Orr QMJHL 267
34 Joshua Bloom OHL 266
35 Simon Robertsson SuperElit 251
36 William von Barnekow SuperElit 250
37 Jack O!Brien WHL 248
38 Stiven Sardaryan USHL 247
39 Isak Rosén SHL 208
40 Viljami Marjala QMJHL 182
41 Elias Stenman overage*** SuperElit 176
42 Lorenzo Canonica overage*** QMJHL 165
43 Prokhor Poltapov MHL 157
44 William Strömgren SuperElit 157
45 Daniil Lazutin overage*** MHL 152
46 Zack Stringer WHL 152
47 Dmitri Zugan*** MHL 145Defensemen
1 Owen Power NCAA 673
2 Luke Hughes USHL 619
3 Ty Gallagher NCAA 336
4 Olen Zellweger WHL 324
5 Guillaume Richard NCAA 299
6 Carson Lambos WHL 291
7 Sean Behrens NCAA 279
8 Bogdans Hodass *** USHL 191
9 Jack Peart NCAA 138
10 Anton Olsson SHL 116
11 Aidan Hreschuk NCAA 106
12 Simon Motew *** OHL 96
13 Kalle Ervasti U20 SM-sarja 83
14 Vladislav Lukashevich MHL 16
After our first year, FC Hockey looks to be out in the lead.
#1 Owen Power, #14 Jesper Wallstedt, #33 Aatu Raty, #53 Simon Robertsson (F)
#88 Dylan Duke (F), #95 Ty Voit (F), #97 Vladislav Lukashevich (D), #159 Matvei Petrov (F)
#161 Connor Lockhart (F), #188 Dmitri Katelevsky, #193 Trevor Wong (not drafted)A very close second place we'll give to HF Boards own 42jerks, or maybe Liger
42jerks
#1 Owen Power, #14 Jack Peart, #33 Aatu Raty, #53 Sasha Pastujov
#88 Aidan Hreschuk (D), #95 Conner Roulette (F), #97 Guillaume Richard (D), #159 Kelle Ervasti (not drafted)
#161 Francesco Arcuri (F), #188 Eric Alarie (not drafted), #193 Zack StringerA very close third is Sabrespace's own Liger.
#1 William Eklund, #14 Jesper Wallstedt, #33 Aatu Raty, #53 Simon Robertsson
#88 Dylan Duke, #95 Robert Orr #97 Sean Tschigerl, #159 Elias Stenman (not drafted)
#161 Trevor Wong (not drafted), #188 Simon Motew (not drafted), #193 xxxxxxA very close fourth is Wheeler
#1 Owen Power, #14 Chaz Lucius, #33 Sasha Pastujov, #53 Sean Behrens (D)
#88 Dylan Duke (F) #95 Joshua Roy #97 Connor Roulette, #159 Peter Reynolds (not drafted)
#161 Jeremy Wilmer (not selected), #188 Trevor Wong (not drafted), #193 Kelle Ervasti (not drafted)Fifth is Pronman
#1 Owen Power,#14 Chaz Lucius,#33 Nikita Chibrikov,#53 Kirill Kirsanov,
#88 Justin Robidas, #95 Olivier Nadeau, #97 Vladislav Lukashevich (D), #159 Lorenzo Canonica (not drafted)
#161 Daniil Lazutin (not drafted), #188 Ty Gallagher, #193 Daniil PylenkovI'm in 6th, or maybe Button
rakish
#1 Dylan Guenther, #14 Logan Stankoven, #33 Anton Olsson, #53 Connor Roulette
#88 Jack O'Brien (not drafted), #95 Victor Stjernborg, #97 Niko Huuhtanen (F), #159 Simon Knak (F)
#161 Mikey Milne (not drafted), #188 Eric Alarie (not drafted), #193 Rhett Rhinehart (not drafted)Button
#1 Owen Power, #14 Fedor Svechkov, #33 Samu Tuomaala (F), #53 Benjamin Gaudreau (G)
#88 Dylan Duke #95 James Malatesta (F) #97 Robert Orr (F), #159 Hunter Strand (not drafted)
#161 Dmitri Zugan (not drafted), #188 Nikita V. Novikov (D), #193 xxxxxxxxxThe Sabres are last
#1 Owen Power (D),#14 Isak Rosén (F),#33 Prokhor Poltapov (F),#53 Alexander Kisakov (F)
#88 Stiven Sardaryan (F),#95 Joshua Bloom (F),#97 Olivier Nadeau (F),#159 Viljami Marjala (F)
#161 William von Barnekow (F),#188 Nikita V. Novikov (D),#193 Tyson Kozak (F)For Year 9, we'll use the Sabres again, as they have a lot of picks. My board looks like this, though I often swap around things after I think about it for a while. While it's a weak draft at the top, it's not so bad for the picks Buffalo has.
Juraj Slafkovsky Fin20
Jonathan Lekkerimaki SuperElit
Liam Ohgren SuperElit
Denton Mateychuk
Marco Kasper
Conor Geekie WHL
Brad Lambert
Pavel Mintyukov
Danila Yurov
Rutger McGroarty
David Goyette
Frank Nazar
Isaac Howard
Kevin Korchinski
Lian Bichsel SHL
Christian Kyrou
Jagger Firkus WHL
Fraser Minten WHL
Mathew Seminoff wHL
Aleksanteri Kaskimaki Fin20
Alexander Suzdalev
Connor Kurth overage
James Stefan overager
Anton Johansson
Petr Hauser Czech20
Matias Rantonen Fin20
Otto Hokkanen Fin20
German Tochilkin MHL
Matyas Melovsky Czech20
Tnias Mathurin
Marek Alscher
Tyler Dunbar USHL
Niks Fenenko
Jeremy Langlois-
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1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:
I've been terrified pick224 would go dark. That said, Savoie gives me pause.
I was in the process of duplicating pick224 for you, now, maybe I won't. Savoie... as he should
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Dave MacPherson posted his 2022 stats. I didn't think this was going to happen as he has been hired by the Sarnia Sting: pick224.com
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53 minutes ago, French Collection said:
Ovi left the game with a lower body injury.
He has been healthy for a long time but a serious injury could derail his chance at Gretzky’s record.
He sits 164 goals back at 36 years of age.Think Wayne's done? He's a pretty competitive guy.
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47 minutes ago, rakish said:
I think you saw the Toronto (once Vancouver) defenseman being waived.
There's no truth to this at all, you idiot.
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10 minutes ago, Taro T said:
Saw somewhere that Hutton had been waived. Didn't circle back to the Yotes website to verify.
I think you saw the Toronto (once Vancouver) defenseman being waived.
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So I looked at 16 year olds for the first time. The old system I could do everybody, which was good, new system, not so good (I'm taking some data from here, some data from there, very slow). So I only did 10.
Wright didn't play in a league that I grade at 16, but his 15 numbers are really good.
Everyone else was well below where I expected. Yurov was 25th among the admittedly random group of 16 year olds I have scored. He sits with a lot of 8th overalls, Rossi's at 23rd, Cozens' at 24th, Newhook's at 26th. Savoie's at 39th, Kemell's at 41st, Cooley's at 42nd, Lambert's at 44th, Slafkovsky's at 80th, Miro... at 88th. Korchinski is 23rd among defensemen, and I haven't graded many defensemen.
I expect a few guys to have really great DY years (Kemell looks to be having a great start), but the DY-1 was really weak.
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4 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said:
There is one with #15 - Hayden
And #43 - who?
And #6 - who?
Prow is an Amerk type, if I remember right, he was around last year. Malone was drafted a few years back. He doesn't score, but people love how he plays.
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Just now, New Scotland (NS) said:
They are really good. How are they at playing Dead classics? I suppose I could check for myself, but maybe you can let me know if it's worth the investment of time. Thanks.
Somehow I missed these guys, just found them. They play with Phil a lot, as Phil's Friends. I find their Dead stuff a bit note for note, and I'm always looking for a reinvention, like their version of Miss You. I think of it as what Jerry would have done with it, had the Dead actually practiced.
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A Dead cover band plays the Stones classic.
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My guess is that at the big NHL/Players/Adams/Eichel meeting they came to an agreement. I will never know if this is true
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49 minutes ago, Hoss said:
That’s a ton of projection. For the record, Drysdale has been absolutely abysmal on NHL ice so far.
They did play Drysdale against tough competition, both at home and on the road. I see his numbers as good, though I see why an analytic wouldn't
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7 hours ago, Hoss said:
Houston seems like it's been waiting for a relocation for some time now so I could see it ... I'd love to see a team in Milwaukee, honestly.
I thought it had been decided that it's better to move to a city without a basketball team?
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1 hour ago, Weave said:
I've been ignoring these when they show up in my feed. Based on this I'll watch next time.
I enjoy these a lot. it's fun to watch someone listen to something that I've heard a million times, it kind of brings new life to it. My favorite is Lost in Vegas listening to Roundabout
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3 minutes ago, darksabre said:
I was trying to make a joke lol
I was going to laugh, but decided against it
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On 7/19/2021 at 9:18 AM, PASabreFan said:
I'm not a sophisticate when it comes to food or drink. I bought a can of imported Italian espresso ground coffee. I don't have an espresso machine and know nothing about pulling, pressing, bars of pressure or shots. I just put it in my cheap coffeemaker. It came out fine, to my taste buds anyway. Then I read ONE ounce of espresso has 64 grams of caffeine. I just had probably a 10-ounce cup of it.
Am I going to die?
Yes... and no
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12 hours ago, dudacek said:
Still any doubters out there?
Come on, speak up. Don’t be shy.
You know I can't resist.
I think the BS are heavy into analytics, and one of the things analytics often (but not @IKnowPhysics in the Butcher thread, which surprised me) believe is that everyone's opponent is the same, therefore there are no 'difficult opponents' or 'tougher assignments', they are all the same. So they value defensemen by their expected goals against, which sounds reasonable, except that, in reality (in my view), their XGA is determined by their opponent, that the number of minutes played against Marchand drives XGA. This makes Buffalo view Rasmus Dahlin's defense much better than it is, and to value the players actually playing Marchand (like Johan Larsson, Risto, Eakin) much too low.
The long term effect is that the BS will weed out the players playing the best opponents and promote the players who play the weakest opponents. I made a podcast about this last week called the analytics death spiral.
I believe they will sign a handful more players at discounted post June 28th prices. They live in monoculture. They laugh at the stupid teams, like the Lightning (Bogo, lol). They believe, internally, that they are going to shock the sports world.
I don't think they are tanking, I think they are incompetent. Of course, I might be wrong.
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40 minutes ago, CallawaySabres said:
Chicago has made all the right moves and should be pretty legit this year.
Only if they're trying to win
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23 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:
If I got 4-5 players I would be so happy. I think I have 3 for sure. Eklund, Wallstedt, Raty. Duke and Orr are really 2 guys I have a lot of faith in.
One will blow out a knee, one will fall in love with the wrong girl.
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2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:
I am very happy that next year I can get back to using some of the numbers again. I think I missed value in this draft and it was a learning experience for sure. Looking at the cohorts from previous drafts I am going to have to put an asterisks for 2020.
Nonsense
My rough estimates is that Me, you, Pronman, and Button get about 2 1/4 players per draft, the Sabres and McKenzie, crap, I forgot McKenzie, get about 1 3/4 players per year, over a 6 year cycle, that's a difference of 3 players, which is pretty much one of Buffalo's problems. So with 11 picks, I expect you to get about 4-5 players, and expect the BS to get 3-4 players, and everyone will think how awesome the BS draft was because they got 3-4 players.
It's meant to be a learning experience.
2022 NHL Draft Rankings
in The Aud Club
Posted · Edited by rakish
Too much white space
The results, well not results... The teams are set for Mom's Basement Stakes for 2022. If you want to see this history of MBS, Oh, I'll be run out of this place for telling that joke. If you want to see the history of Mom's... https://forums.hfboards.com/threads/2020-moms-basement-stakes.2769630/
Sorry about the delay.
I screwed up and tried to draft an overager who was already drafted, I shouldn't try to select players after drinking hours have begun. Other than that, I wasn't too bothered by how my picks fell. Some years, it just doesn't work out, but for me, this year was ok.
Many drafted Kemell at 9, and Lindgren at 106. A lot of contestants got Lambert, often at 28.
Sabres
#9 Matthew Savoie (F)
#16 Noah Östlund (F)
#28 Jiri Kulich (F)
#41 Topias Leinonen (G)
#74 Viktor Neuchev (F)
#106 Mats Lindgren (D)
#134 Vsevolod Komarov (D)
#170 Jake Richard (F)
#187 Gustav Karlsson (F)
#202 Joel Ratkovic Berndtsson (F)
#211 Linus Sjödin (F)
McKenzie
#9 Joakim Kemell
#16 Danila Yurov
#28 Brad Lambert
#41 Luca Del Bel Belluz
#74 Danil Zhilkin
#106 Mats Lindgren
#134 Josh Filmon
#170 Spencer Sova
#187 Jace Weir
#202 ---
#211 ---
Button
#9 Joakim Kemell
#16 Jimmy Snuggerud
#28 Jagger Firkus
#41 Luca Del Bel Belluz
#74 Danny Zhilkin
#106 Mats Lindgren
#134 Brennan Ali
#170 Brandon Lisowsky
#187 Kyle Jackson
#202 Mathew Ward
#211 Daniil Ivanov
Pronman
#9 Joakim Kemell
#16 Danila Yurov
#28 Brad Lambert
#41 Lane Hutson
#74 Danny Zhilkin
#106 Mats Lindgren
#134 Miguël Tourigny
#170 Connor McClennon
#187 Daniil Ivanov
#202 Jace Weir
#211 Semyon Demidov
Wheeler
#9 Joakim Kemell
#16 Brad Lambert
#28 Isacc Howard
#41 Lane Hutson
#74 Jordan Dumais
#106 Mats Lindgren
#134 Jack Devine
#170 Markus Vidicek
#187 Antonin Verreault
#202 Oskar Asplund
#211 Tyler Duke
@LGR4GM
#9 Frank Nazar
#16 Liam Öhgren
#28 Owen Beck
#41 Gleb Trikozov
#74 Daniil Zhilkin
#106 Michael La Starza
#134 Beau Jelsma
#170 Pano Fimis
#187 Logan Morrison
#202 Alex Sotek
#211 Hudson Thornton
42 Jerks
#9 Matthew Savoie
#16 Jiri Kulich
#28 Tristan Luneau
#41 Matyas Sapovaliv
#74 Tomas Hamara
#106 Otto Salin
#134 Jake Furlong
#170 Fabian Wagner
#187 Marcus Vidicek
#202 Jere Lasilla
#211 Alexis Gendron
rakish
#9 Jonathan Lekkerimaki
#16 Liam Ohgren
#28 Brad Lambert
#41 David Goyette
#74 Matthew Seminoff
#106 Connor Kurth
#134 James Stefan
#170 Wasted pick Anton Johansson
#187 Matias Rantonen
#202 Otto Hokkanen
#211 German Tochilkin