ska-T Palmtown

To me, little old me, I think there is HUGE gap between you, Mr. Thorns (and those of your general ilk) and those that I find insufferable. Yet, I don't begrudge The Insufferables their natural birthright and civil duty of bitching on the internet. I don't like living in bubbles/silos/echo chambers ... I really like knowing about, and attempting to understand, the point of view of others. I don't personally understand the point of just coming to the forums to constantly bad-mouth the team ... but again, those who chose to do so are free to do so and as long as it is well thought out, I probably read it. (lol, as if they care ...) 🤷‍♀️

It is in my nature to be generally positive. (As a very youngest child, I developed some excellent coping mechanisms which include finding the joy in little things) - but I can see how venting online to a group of people who have a far greater than average appreciation for this particular sports situation may be helpful to some people. In the last game thread I asked about the ignore feature - added a few people who did not add anything of value, to me, to the discussion and am quite happy about it. That said, I am the guy that says "Hey, if the other team hung 5 goals on us in period 1, nothing says we can't hang 5 on them in period 2." I don't say it here, cuz no one wants to hear it, lol. So, until the math says "nay" - I say "yay"!

asking for a friend ... where is the ignore feature again?

So, I did some initial simple math, got sad, and stopped: The Sabres have 15 games remaining; 3 outcomes per game means 3^15 possible scenarios ~=14.3M different W/L/OT combos. In only 46189 of those scenarios does Buffalo earn 24 or more points (93 pts total) ... that is 0.3% By contrast NYI earns at least 21 points in its remaining 17 games a whopping 26.2% of the time. (In a blast back to HS math, did anyone else realize there are 61880 ways for a team to go 12-3-2????? I had to look it up, it is factorials and all that fancy statistics math.) I would not even begin to imagine how to account for the 16 games the 6 teams in contention play against each other ... I am guessing it helps the Sabres somewhat by cutting out swaths of potential scenarios that cannot coexist.

I wanted to do the actual math - or at least run every possible point scenario for games that matter between now and the end and see in how many of those the Sabres make the playoffs ... alas, there are 1.33E+39 possible point scenarios just involving 6 teams 😞 Tomorrow alone has 324 different, 5 games with 3 each (although when any of teams play each other, there are 4) is 3^5. So, there are 82 games of interest, so 3^82 ... and that number is low because it does not do 4 for each head-to-head. I am guessing that either the professional folks use either full brute force and say in 3.2% of those 1.33 duodecillion (new word! how fun!) scenarios, Buffalo squeaks in? *or they have fancy probability models that look at other factors to greatly reduce the computing power needed. Maybe I will try the next two days, lol.

I was a smartass? That is generally all I am and all I do, so I must assume that is what it is 🙂 Edit: I had to look up 'recrimination' cuz I very much doubted myself and shocker I was wrong ... so despite my fear of now recrimination against you ... I don't think I recriminated in my post? I admitted to being lazy and was definitely snarky about a topic I thought the smart folks around here had already put to bed. I throw myself on the mercy of the court!

I legit don't know if I did something wrong here. 🤣😥🤷‍♀️

Too lazy to find one of the "Benson needs to be in the AHL next season" posts - but I thought we established he will still be too young next year (see: Savoie) and it is NHL or juniors for him. Am I misremembering? Do we need a thread with the title "Benson can only play in NHL or juniors next year" to keep it straight? lol

fashion is ... subjective? I mean, I never said everything about them was good 🙂

I was told he was the Good Vibes Captain?

and Gus came flying in ... I am actually glad we did not trade him.

LOL - always hated Roy when he played and he is still just a bitchy goalie behind the bench!

haha after I finished by borderline unhinged rant, I contemplated complaining about myself going off on a weird rant in response to a post from a week ago 🤣🤣 Hope the back feels better.

I know this was last week and it is probably a giant faux pas that will get me forever banned from the complaint thread - but this is such total and utter non-sensical silliness. I am pretty sure that the cranky old farts a generation ahead of me would have said the same things about my peers - my peers and I that ended up spending over a decade of our lives collectively shuffling in and out of the Middle East. I think the real problem is that older generations had/have lower emotional intelligence and thought it was some sort of effed up badge of honor to "grin and bear it" or "suck it up". Not too long ago it was commonly held that "men don't cry" and other toxic crap like that. I think it is great that the current crop of youngsters has no problem telling their elders when the are wrong, are behaving poorly, and generally have no clue. I see a genuine effort from them to avoid the mistakes of the past. Good for them.

I know he did not "get in trouble" for it - but again, this is the second time that idiot has made a Devils' player bleed from a hit to the head in the 10 games he has been in the league. I know there were caveats to the first one (guy had his head down or whatever) - but to me this incident does not seem to be a "first time". So, yes - he should get suspended for purposefully hitting another player's face with his elbow in a situation where it was 100% avoidable. I, for one, am glad to see a departure from the "he's not a repeat offender because we never actually punished him before" mantra.

Am I the only one that gets actually excited about "hey, we could maybe somehow do this!!" then gets really mad that they waited this long again this year? It's maddening because other than BB, this was here all along ...

Point % in El Thorno's dream scenario vs today's: Prettttttttttttttttttty happy with how that is trending. Still a steep climb, but one step at a time, I guess.

Isn't this the second time he has made a Devil bleed? Guy's probably buying into his own hype at this point. Good to knock him down a peg or two.

My work computer won't let me do gifs, but I promise you that Daffy Duck one (you know the one) belongs in any response to your post.

not gonna lie, it moved when i read that ...

Do those fancy websites say how they figure it out? I remember watching the Bills "odds" and it seemed sorta straight forward, but there were only like 4 teams in it at that point. If all they do is just put together every possible permutation of every meaningful game into W/L/OT simulation and the Sabres make it over the line 14 times for every 1000 simulations, I gotta say that sounds sorta high? If it is based on any sort of trends or statistical analysis of the season, then saying a team that has barely made it to 0.500 on the season can play 0.823 from here to the end ... 14/1000 seems REALLY high, lol. No data was harmed in the typing of these opinions.

On another note, both Detroit (sucks) and the Aisles are at 0.563 points %, assuming they maintain that pace and rounding up - 93 points. Sabres need 28 out of 34 points to get there. I would say that gets us in since to get 28/34 we'd need to beat Detroit and the Aisles each and would likely hold the tie-breaker. Yikes!

One of the few enjoyable things about going to a Blackhawks game here in Chicago - last year when Our Buffalo Sabres were in town, a "Detroit Sucks" chant broke out! Apparently it happens at almost every home game. The rivalry hate is still strong.

I think the only person dumb enough to take EK's contract already works for Pitt - lol. I guess unless a team needs to make it to the floor. 3 more years at $11.5M per? Woof. I too lazy to see what his "NMC" is (full or partial) - but I am betting any team with cap space to take him is on his list of no-no.

I just watched it for the shootout (that I had no idea was happening, cuz the post game show was on ...) - UPL pointing to center ice after the last stop - awesome!