nfreeman

But who was obtainable at any price this summer who meets my criterion of being a "sure thing" to be good enough to significantly improve the Sabres' chances? I don’t think a guy like Ullmark meets that standard.

1st bolded -- I don't think I agree here -- I think KA just determined that, of the pool of goalies who were obtainable and willing to come here this summer, there wasn't one who was a "sure thing" to be good enough to significantly improve the Sabres' chances -- i.e. they all, including Comrie, had more or less the same likelihood of being that good, so he took the one he liked the most, which was Comrie. And I don't think KA will be OK with finishing 8th-last again. If that happens, I think we'll see him move on from some of the guys on this year's roster. 2nd bolded -- this is interesting. Since the Sabres were obviously tanking at that point, I haven't thought much about whether Darcy could've ridden out the storm if he'd have chosen a better coach. I guess it kinda depends on whether the Sabres organizationally were committed to a full 2-year tank, which was needed to get Eichel, or whether they would've stopped tanking after drafting Reinhart if they'd shown signs of life under a better coach. Even with a better coach the franchise might still have decided to tank that 2nd year to get Eichel though.

I chose option 4 -- solid top 4 guy. As I've said previously, I'm a fan of Joki's and am pretty confident that he'll quite capably pull his weight as a 20+-min-per-game complement to the rising star Power. Joki just turned 23 in June and IMHO has improved each season despite spending his 2nd and 3rd pro seasons playing for the highly dysfunctional Krueger-coached Sabres. He spend 1 year in juniors after being drafted at the end of the 1st round, then split his rookie year between Chicago and their AHL team, then was traded to the Sabres for Nylander. Then 2 years of Krueger/pandemic, then last year under DM, who, as @dudacek notes, has consistently praised his play in public statements. My point is that the first part of his pro career has been spent under pretty trying circumstances and he's still performed pretty well. Now he'll get a chance to play in (hopefully!) a much more stable set of circumstances, with (hopefully!) a potential star D partner and a real NHL roster around him led by (hopefully!) a real NHL coach and backstopped by (hopefully!) a real NHL goalie. He won't be anyone's favorite out of the top 4, because Dahlin and Power have star quality while Mule brings the blood and guts, but I think Joki will deliver what the Sabres need in that slot.

I'm not sure Barzal is elite, but he is a very good player and I think still viewed by the Isles as a core guy. I will be pretty surprised if they trade him as a cap dump.

Not just yet, but I’ll guess that you’re going to watch the games in the first month with hope and anticipation for Quinn, Comrie, Dahlin, Power, Cozens, TT, etc, just like the rest of us, and if they deliver some rousing wins and are competitive every night, which is going to happen, you’ll be pretty close to all in.

I agree that in that scenario they’ll bring someone else in, but I would guess it would be someone that UPL would compete with for one of the 2 NHL spots (with Conroe presumably keeping the other one). I wouldn’t expect whoever it is to get a significant contract, so there wouldn’t be a major commitment to the new guy. As a related point, if UPL doesn’t impress enough this coming season and Comrie doesn’t get an extension next summer, but the team otherwise takes a big step, then the Sabres probably start to look more attractive to Portillo, whom I’d bet is very much monitoring the situation.

I took the optimistic legit NHL starter option. It’s mostly a bet on the acumen of KA and his staff. We’ll see. He needs to be right on this one.

I agree with most of this but I’m not sure this year is quite as critical as it sounds here. UPL is entering the last year of his contract, after which he’ll be an RFA. It seems fairly likely that next summer, Levi will sign, Portillo will bail, Anderson will retire, Comrie will not get an extension and so will have 1 year left on his contract and the Sabres will not make a big move to bring in a high-profile goalie. If all of those things happen, and if UPL shows promise this year but doesn’t seize the job, or even if he shows promise but gets hurt again, the Sabres don’t need to make a long-term decision on him. They’ll control his rights and can just roll it over with him on another short term, low cost deal to see if he develops. That’s kinda what I would expect them to do in that scenario.

I chose the middle option but he’s gotta stay healthy this year. Also: great thread and series! thanks @dudacek

I am all in on VO having a big year if he stays healthy, which unfortunately hasn’t always been the case. I think DM will be astute and well able to maximize his contributions, and I think VO has a lot of offensive game. It’s also quite possible that one or more of the young guys aren’t ready for prime time. That plus injuries could put VO into quite a bit of ice time — with, as noted upthread, high-skilled line mates. I do think @Taro T is being a bit generous in his description of Mitts’ season last year though. I need to see Mitts really deliver for an extended period this year before I drink that kool aid.

Michigan is an elite hockey program and is pretty likely to bring in a well-regarded coach. Unless the program gets hit with major sanctions and/or a bunch of players leave, I think Portillo is pretty likely to stay there.

So I heard on a podcast that the title of the next episode is "Waterworks," and since Kim now works at a sprinkler company...it seems likely we'll see Kim again.

It's possible, but last year, there were only 2 35-year-olds with 70 points or more -- Ovechkin and Pavelski -- both of whom are much bigger and stronger than Hubie. And Hubie is getting $10.5MM per year in his age 35, 36 and 37 seasons. Jason Spezza is the cautionary tale here -- he started producing 25ish-point seasons in his age 34 season.

Regarding Poltie's KHL contract -- assuming the Russia geopolitical situation calms down in the next year or 2, is he totally locked in to the KHL for the duration of that contract? Haven't teams or players bought out KHL contracts previously to get them to the NHL?

Yikes. Hubie just turned 29, and this extension starts a year from now -- so they will be paying him $10.5MM per year in his age 34, 35, 36 and 37 seasons. And the cash is $10.5MM every year, so he's fully incentivized to stick it out until the end. By comparison, Skinner's contract ends after his age 34 season. I understand why Calgary did this, but I don't think I'd be happy about it if I were a Flames fan.

What about the superfly TNT?

Separately, that article in the Athletic was pretty well written IMHO and makes the coach look like a real piece of work. Yuck.

No one knows the exact percentage other than Watson. But I am pretty confident the percentage is higher than zero -- confident enough, and above zero enough, that I am OK with the suspension. Are you not OK with the suspension?

Well, I'm not sure why you're shaking your head. We're in a situation where the information is imperfect and the NFL and the arbitrator needed to make a decision. If you think they made the wrong decision, then you should say what you think the right decision is. Instead, you're lobbing accusations of...something (bias? racism? rushing to judgment? other?) at those who think the sheer number of accusations means that Watson must have crossed the line -- when it seems like just about everyone feels that way. Yes, it's an easy story to copy. Do you think 1 woman made something up and 29 women copied it? Has that ever happened to any athlete? Plenty of athletes have been shaken down over the years -- have any been shaken down by 30 different women? Can you give an example of standards of proof varying based on the situation or person?

Well, if Watson had been found guilty of something, the suspension would've been much longer. Serious question: what do you think the right outcome here is? This wasn't a one-time incident where maybe there was a misunderstanding or a shakedown. 30 different women accused him of pretty much the same thing.

Sure -- very possible. I do think though that as others have noted, based on the facts we know and what we can reasonably expect in terms of consequences for the program, it seems pretty likely that Portillo will stay the course. If the program gets shut down for next season (which seems highly unlikely)? Yes, he would probably bail.

I think Portillo will evaluate this situation as he evidently has conducted his career to date — ie by dispassionately choosing the best path for his long term personal situation. If the coach is fired, Portillo isn’t going to get PO’d and leave the team.

Yes — a happy ending seems pretty unlikely. I think the consistent moral of this show and Breaking Bad is that consequences are inevitable.

Good man.

Ok — but just for poops and giggles and the sake of argument — what is your prediction? As between Joki and Loobie, who will get more time with Power (or Dahlin), and who will spend more time on the 3rd pair with Bryson or Fitzie? I’ll predict Joki gets quite a bit more time with Power/Dahlin and Loobie spends quite a bit more with Bryson/Fitzie.