nfreeman

The contract is the biggest impediment to the trade IMHO. I think the following are pretty much locks: - KA will not give Helle a long-term extension this summer (because KA thinks it's pretty likely that Levi is the future, and doesn't want to box him out by committing to Helle for the long term). - Although KA would give Helle a short-term extension this summer, Helle would not agree to this as it would be well against his economic interests. - If Helle has a good year with the Sabres, he will not be interested in signing a short-term, team-friendly extension at the end of the season. He turns 31 next May and will be swinging for the fences in seeking his last big contract. While he might be inclined towards staying with the Sabres, the money and term will need to be in the ballpark of what he could get in the UFA market (i.e. $8MM x 6 years or thereabouts -- this would the 4th-highest G salary in the NHL, and his current contract is $6.2MM x 6 years), or else he's gone. So, I think the net result of the above is that the most likely outcome is that the Sabres would be paying a high price for 1 year of Helle. Now, it's quite possible that KA becomes convinced next year that Levi doesn't have the goods, or that Helle is so good that he's worth moving on from Levi and getting a fat extension, or both -- but the likelihood seems pretty low. Given how often KA has mentioned the need to keep replenishing the prospect pool, I just don't think he's going to give up #13 this year for what would most likely be 1 year of Helle.

This is where you get your information? A random blog from 2 dudes with a moving company? That explains a lot, come to think of it. In any case, the 2 college bros on whom you are basing your philosophy, such as it is, appear to be citing city limits population, not metro area population. I think the latter is more relevant in assessing a hockey market, but of course YMMV. I've been to both Tampa and Miami a number of times, including a trip to Miami just a couple of months ago. While both certainly have, in my experience, a good number of Northerners, my impression is that there are many more transplants in Miami and a substantially greater percentage of "homegrowns" in Tampa.

Well, the Miami-FLL-Boca metro area has about 6.1MM people, while the Tampa-St. Pete-Clearwater metro area has about 3.2MM people. Certainly it's less of a hockey market at present than Tampa is. I'm hoping that this year's success will springboard it to reaching Tampa's level in a few years if the team stays good. I'd be amazed if Tampa had more Northern transplants than Miami.

Leaving aside your other observation about Florida, and fervently hoping that these nuggets don't increasingly find their way into your posts as we approach 2024, I will note that Tampa is at or close to the top of the NHL in attendance every year -- and Miami is a much bigger and wealthier market, with more Northern (US and GWN) transplants. So while I agree that Miami/Ft. Lauderdale/Del Boca Vista won't become a hockey town like Buffalo once was or Montreal is permanently, I would like to see it become a hockey town in the vein of a smaller NYC -- i.e. one where hockey isn't by any means the biggest show in town, but where hockey nevertheless has a dedicated, passionate and multitudinous fan base that fills the arena with a raucous crowd every night.

Interesting. That's a pretty high pick to give up for one year of a goalie -- and IMHO it's at least 80% likely not to exceed one year -- but OTOH if any current goalie is worth it, Helle is one of 2 or 3 guys that qualify. I'd much rather give up a 2024 first, but that might not get it done. OTOH, is anyone else going to give up more than that for Helle unless an extension is part of the deal? If KA were to make the trade and include the 2023 #1, I'd probably get comfortable with it after a little while and then get pretty excited about the season. Also, I'd trade Bryson and a #2 for Grzelcyck in a heartbeat, but I don't think that's enough to get it done for Boston. They will get better offers for him than that.

I'm rooting for the Panthers. Reino (and Montour, for that matter) dissed us less on his way out the door than Eichel did, I really like Barkov's game, I like the Bobrovsky redemption story, I like Miami and I like that metro area becoming a hockey town, which I think will happen if the team stays good for a few years.

No question it stings. More so for me with Eichel than for Reino, but I appreciate that YMMV on that. All we can do at this point is learn from our mistakes -- primarily that the tank was a stupid approach that was highly likely to produce exactly the result it produced, and that hiring a HC who'd been out of the league, the continent and the sport for 6 years was idiotic -- and be determined not to repeat them. And we can appreciate that the team has finally gotten back to the upswing with a group of talented, likeable, exciting players.

Well, that was just a fan suggestion, right? Probably not the views of the Star. It does make for an interesting question though, because if Mathews doesn't sign an extension before the draft (or at least agree to one in principle by then -- not sure whether he can sign before July 1), there is a real likelihood that Toronto trades him as he is now one season from UFA. Mathews IMHO is the 2nd-best player in the NHL. If he told KA that he would sign here for, say, 7 years x $11.5MM per year -- what would KA do? What would Sabrespacers do? Who here would give up Quinn, Cozens and a #1 for Mathews? (I would not. I'm not trading TNT, Cozens or Dahlin, and probably not Power either, for any trade that doesn't yield McDavid.) How about Quinn, Power and a #1? Or: Quinn, Tuch, Kulich and a #1? Now you've gotta think seriously about it. Just BSing around on Mem Day afternoon. And I hope everyone is having a great one.

Totally agree, or someone else in this mold who will sign a 1- or 2-year deal. I don't think either of those 2 will get longer than a 2-year deal this summer.

But these are all examples of goalie moves from last season and before then, innit? And no one really expects him to give up real assets for Helle, right? At this point, I would not be surprised if KA brings in a goalie on the Murray/Gibson level if the price is right, but I would be very surprised if he were to trade, say, JJP or Kulich or this year's #1 for a goalie, or if he were to give a FA goalie a contract longer than 2 years. I think Levi is his guy. It's been reported though that Johnson will not play for the Amerks in this playoff run, right? "He's here to be a part of this" kinda sounds like they might play him at some point.

I agree with most of this and certainly would've preferred that he sign earlier and play in this Amerks playoff run. However, regarding the bolded, I think it's highly likely that he understands that he'll be in the AHL next season and is OK with it, and he's OK with it because he knows he wouldn't be ready for the NHL next year. He's almost certainly taken advice from his dad, who's a former player and a member of the Ducks' organization, as well as from other NHL people his dad has checked with. It seems pretty likely that he would've gotten candid and accurate feedback about whether his game is NHL-ready. And if he understands that he'll be in the AHL next season, I can see the reasons to wait until now that others have suggested -- contract negotiations, enjoying the end of his college days, injury, weighing the Sabres against other organizations -- outweighing the urgency to sign and play ASAP. We'll see. KA has spoken reasonably highly of him over the past couple of years and clearly wanted to sign him, so there's a decent chance he becomes a starting NHL defenseman down the road. That would be a win.

I think it’s worth noting that KA deserves some credit here for selling Johnson, a pretty good prospect who easily could’ve been a UFA and would’ve had many appealing options, on the Sabres’ organization.

So next year in Rochester, Johnson and Novikov are the 2 D prospects, right? Anyone else?

Can he play for the Amerks in this playoff run?

I hear ya, notwithstanding the strange new choice of omitting periods at the end of your paragraphs I agree about that 2-year run, although 2005-06 was much more magical IMHO than 2006-07. I was at game 3 of the ECF vs Carolina in 2006, in which the Sabres took a 2-1 lead in the series, and it was freaking amazing (although Tallinder broke his arm in that game, a huge loss and major step in the road to the D-corps ruin). I can't really fault you for being willing to pay any price to get that back. I just think it's so hard, and so random, to go on a deep run in the playoffs, that the right approach is to build a team that has a good shot every year for a number of years -- and trading away a top prospect for one year of a veteran goalie cuts in pretty much the exact opposite direction.

Of course nothing is guaranteed. But as I'm sure you understand, it's KA's job to assess probabilities and act on them. Hello analytics. I think, and I'd bet that KA thinks, that it's much less likely that the Sabres get past the 2nd round with Helle than it is that JJP will become a player who is good enough that we regret trading him for one year of Helle. Similarly, the likelihood of Helle staying longer than 1 year seems quite low -- KA loves Levi and appears not to be interested in committing big dollars and term to any goalie, much less one that would box out Levi. Also, I don't see how you can say that you'd trade Östlund for Helle, full stop, and in the next breath say that you're actively seeking to not armchair GM.

But that's not the hypothetical trade. The hypothetical trade is JJP, or similar high-value asset, for one season that MIGHT include a deep playoff run -- and we should be clear-eyed that the odds of winning more than 1 round with a team and coach this young and inexperienced are quite low. I think there is effectively zero possibility that they trade for Hellebuyck. The price will be too high, and KA IMHO has no interest in boxing out Levi by giving Helle the long-term deal he will demand. Now, if they could get Helle for a 2nd-rounder, or maybe by swapping #13 for #18, and enjoy the fruits of Helle's contract year? I'm in. But I don't think Winnipeg will go for that, and I'm not giving up JJP, Quinn, Kulich, Savoie, Rosen, Östlund or #13 for 1 year of a goalie, and I don't think KA is either.

I agree on slowing it down, but it's way, way too early to come to any kind of conclusions on Rosen.

He's a RHD, 6'2, 183 lbs, age 19 (turns 20 in January), and drafted in the 5th round in 2022. Born in Russia, he just finished his 2nd year in the QMJHL, putting up 39 pts and 60 PM in 62 games. As I said when the Sabres drafted him, he's to my knowledge their first ever guy named Vsevolod. FC Hockey, a publication I know nothing about, describes him thusly: I assume he'll be in Rochester next season. If anyone has seen him play -- let's hear your thoughts!

What? Who said this? What exactly did he/she say? Please do not vomit up gibberish like this and waste everyone's time. What stats, specifically? I hope you have something better than plus-minus to support this. Here's what the Athletic had to say:

No. Savoie is the exact opposite of a lock. He's about as big a maybe as can be. And do we know that's going to happen? i.e. is this another "lock" that the Sabres should make FA decisions based on? If Kulich or Rosen earns a spot, he'll have a spot. (This seems almost impossible in the case of Rosen, and possible but unlikely in the case of Kulich, IMHO.)

I'll add that I think this makes a Zemgus return less likely, although not impossible.

I think this is probably best viewed as a "continued cleanse of prior toxic culture/growth of positive culture" move. I don't disagree that KO's play declined last year but he still had 11 goals and 28 pts and played almost 15 min per game on a decent team. He's still an NHL player. And his teammates seem to love and respect him. I'm fine with it.

I just saw Fast X. It certainly wasn't great, and you are probably a more discriminating viewer than I am, but I find all of them more or less the same level of "stupid but entertaining with great action sequences." I'm also interested in the increasing number of appearances by major actors/actresses.

Maybe it was blocking the view of people behind them?