nfreeman

Well, I don't think the data you originally posted really supports this statement either. Killorn's stats away from Stamkos are pretty close to Stamkos' stats away from Killorn, while Stamkos' stats away from Callahan are substantially better than Callahan's away from Stamkos. And while the biggest spread is with Namestnikov, that one also has the smallest sample size, as he only played 12 min per night in 5x5 (NB that Callahan got more ice time than Killorn or Namestnikov, so his stats may be the most reliable). Your point about relative league constipation is a good one, and effectively rebuts my theory (dammit!) -- but there are other key differences to consider between 2011-12 and this past year: - In 11-12, TB was 8th in the NHL in scoring, as compared with 12th this year. - In 11-12, TB played a much more fast-and-loose game -- dead last in defense in 11-12, as compared with 5th-best this year (under a different coach). - In 11-12, Stammer had a talented, experienced and high-scoring linemate in St-Louis (who had 49 assists that year). Killorn and Namestnikov are nice young players, but nowhere near as productive as MSL. - In 11-12, Stammer played over 22 min per game, as compared with under 20 min per game this year. Overall, I agree that we're not likely to see 60 goals from Stammer ever again, unless the NHL removes head from rectum and implements significant offense-friendly changes. But he's still a highly effective player, and I think with better linemates than he had this year -- which I think he'd have on the Sabres -- we're looking at 40/40/80.

Before last night's game, I was thinking GS in 5. Now I think there's a real chance of a sweep -- and a greater chance of that than of Cleveland winning 2 games. GS is just a much better team on both ends. FWIW, I'm rooting for the Cavs and I think LeBron is a pretty good guy, but he also should be held accountable for forcing the Cavs into a series of bad, and consequential, personnel moves. The Tristan Thompson contract was ridiculous for a guy who's no more than a good role player, and the Wiggins-for-Love trade (followed by the Love max contract) was a debacle.

Opened and bumped for your happy posting needs.

A small thing, but awesome (to me) anyway: I hung out with 2 old friends last night and watched the NBA finals. Once you get to a certain age, between work, family, etc. there just aren't that many opportunities for that kind of hanging out. It was great.

OK gents. Just to be clear, this is my understanding of the bet: Risto signs an extension for 3 years or less -- I win Risto signs an extension for 4 years or more -- you win Yes?

Yes indeedly!

$25 wager with proceeds to charity chosen by the winner?

I don't think the data you posted supports (or really relates to) the bolded. Now this is a legit concern. Still, he was tied for 7th in goals last year with 36, and had 43 the previous year (which was after the injury). And, FWIW, the year before that, which is when he hurt his leg, he had 25 goals in 37 games. I think overall NHL offensive constipation is more to blame for the (modest) decline in his production more than the injury is. I also think that there is no end in sight to offensive constipation, and in those circumstances, goals, and goal-scorers, are even more valuable. I also think, when he is a Sabre, he will lead the team in goals for at least the first 5 years of his contract. Boom! Good post. I'm out at $12MM.

Well, I want Stamkos too, but I don't think you can ignore the contract issue, which is pretty much the basis for everyone's concern. I don't think anyone here would object to him coming here at $3MM x 3 years.

Who's to say that this season is a floor? Who's to say that if he signs a $45MM contract, he doesn't get fat and stay up until 3:00 AM every night getting baked and playing xbox? He's 21 and has probably lived a pretty entitled athlete life. I'd say the number of kids who are mature enough at that age to stay dedicated and levelheaded after signing a contract guaranteeing them that kind of cash is a pretty small percentage. Imma flip it around on you: do you think GMTM is going to give him a long-term deal? My point in bringing that up was simply that it's hard to rely on that trainwreck year as a reliable indicator of what kind of player Risto is and will develop into.

I just think you are assuming too much about a player with 2 full NHL seasons under his belt, one of which was one of the worst seasons any team has ever had and the other of which was still well out of the playoffs. And I don't see any need to make that assumption. Yes, PK got more than he would've gotten, but he's still an elite player, and they didn't have to pay him until he'd put up 5 solid NHL seasons -- and just about any team in the NHL would take PK and his contract. OTOH, there are very few teams that would take Myers' contract right now (and there would be even fewer if the salary for the rest of the term matched the cap hit).

But if ROR is on Stammer's line, who's to say that ROR won't handle center defensive responsibilities in the defensive zone? I'd guess that if Stammer really does have issues with preferring center to wing, those issues are related to offensive zone play, not defensive zone play. ROR-Stamkos-Ennis Kane-Eichel-Reino I'll admit that the 2nd line doesn't have a Kopitar or Toews, but how many 2nd lines do? And I want to see that top 6 on opening night real bad.

Was Barr's contract up?

Why not have Stamkos as the #1 center, Eichel as #2 center and Reino and ROR on the wings, along with Ennis and Kaner to complete the top 6? Are we really going to say no to Stamkos just because we want to keep ROR at center? Not sure what this means. I'm kinda hoping to see a lot of volume scoring from Kaner.

I don't think the Sabres would be interested in a 5-year deal. I'd guess that if they want a deal longer than 3 years, they'll want to "buy" more than one year of Risto's UFA period. I think a lot of people (including me) thought this about Myers. Now, I still like Myers, but I definitely wouldn't give him the fat 10-year contract that DR gave him (or even a 5-year contract for that matter).

I may be in the minority here, but I'd rather give Risto a bridge deal than a fat 8-year contract. He's only 21 -- we have no idea whether he'll continue to improve, how he'll respond to the pressure of being the #1 defenseman on a playoff team and (hopefully!) cup contender, etc. He has 4 more full seasons to play before being eligible for UFA. I would give him a 3-year deal and make him prove that he's the stud we hope he is. When that deal expires, he'll still be an RFA and the Sabres can control the situation and, if he's worth it, give him a fat contract that will cover pretty much all of his prime.

Well, I like what is developing too, but let's not forget that the Sabres finished tied for 25th in scoring last year. They certainly haven't arrived at a spot where they don't need a guy like Stamkos.

So you're saying there's a chance.

You're probably right. Roy might be fooled by it though.

I will be shocked if Stamkos doesn't get max term (i.e. 7 years, or 8 if it's TB) and $10MM+ per year.

Not likely. But maybe: Zemgus + Bailey + Gorges + #8 for Barrie + #10?

It does seem like a Zemgus-plus-sweeteners-for-Barrie deal is out there, innit?

But the question included "where would Stamkos want to go". Carolina is probably bottom 5 in his personal preference ranking.

You have got to be kidding me.

In response to this and to dudacek's post regarding Zemgus in a different thread: I'm kinda starting to expect this, especially once Stamkos signs with the Sabres.