nfreeman

Good question, and no I wouldn't. I guess it just feels like they've assessed matters and with Eichel gone and a few awful losses recently, they've decided to protect the asset they have in McCabe and don't mind at all if it solidifies their lottery position.

I think the most likely outcome is that JBott dumps him at the draft for a 4th-rounder or thereabouts, with the 2nd-most-likely outcome that JBott is unable to do so and lets him walk without qualifying him (I'm not sure when QOs are due -- I think it's after the draft but could be wrong). Here is my reasoning: - Given Lehner's recent extreme suckitude (pulled in 3 of his last 8 home games, among other sins) and injury, no playoff team will want him to be their guy for a playoff run, so no one is going to trade for him this week. - I don't think JBott wants him back at any price, let alone $4MM+ -- so I think JBott will try to trade him at or before the QO deadline -- probably at the draft. And, I think/hope JBott is pretty good at his job and will be able to work out a deal so he gets more than zero for him. - I think JBott's efforts will be complicated by the fact that most other GMs will know that (i) JBott doesn't want Lehner back and (ii) Lehner will cost much less in salary if JBott can't trade him and just walks away from him (which I again think is the case but am not certain). So the other GMs will both have leverage on JBott and be incentivized to wait for JBott to walk away from him. This makes it reasonably likely that JBott won't be able to get anyone to trade for Lehner. - My bottom line is that if JBott can't get anything for Lehner in trade and is left with the choice of paying him $4MM for next year or walking away from him -- I think JBott will walk away.

And, it must be said, his injury history has turned him from being an asset obtained in the Kane trade to being part of the price GMTM had to pay to get Kane.

Kinda feels like a tanking move.

Really, IMHO this comes down to whether JBott wants to commit to Ullmark as the #1 for next year. If he does, then a CJ type as the #2 would make sense and allow $2MM - $3MM in savings on the G spot (heh) to be spent elsewhere. If not, then he'll need to bring in either an established starter or a young #2 (like Lehner was, and Bernier, Gibson, Andersen, etc.) to either run with the #1 slot or at least compete with Ullmark for it. I would guess that it will be the latter.

With Lehner generally sucking lately AND now injured, I'd guess we're looking at a 4th-rounder for him at best, but more likely that he won't be traded before the deadline.

Holy jumping to conclusions batman!

I thought the GTG and the GWG were good, bang-bang offensive plays that would've been very tough saves (more so the GWG), so I don't blame Lehner for those. They both seemed more the product of breakdowns in the team D. On the GTG in particular, all 5 Sabre skaters were on the left side of the ice, leaving Risto alone to scramble back to his right to cover 3 Senators when the pass went that way. The first Ottawa goal, though, to tie it with less than 15 min to go in the 3rd, was another Lehner 3rd period choke. Yes it was a deflection, but Gaborik was well outside the top of the circle and the puck went straight in from there. If Lehner had been in the right position, it would've been a routine save.

For the millenials: I recommend "Search Party" on TBS.

Nailed it!

Love the optimism but...

Well, you might think Sam is a 38-42 pt guy who disappears for long stretches, puts up numbers in garbage time, is a net negative in the defensive zone and in the locker room and will be useless in the playoffs and has hit his ceiling, or some combination of those negatives. Or you just might like the guy coming back more than you like Sam.

I'm basing it on the fact that Olofsson can become a UFA in a few months and would then be able to choose from a large number of interested teams, most of which seem objectively like a more attractive situation than the Sabres. Hopefully Mick is correct about his comments and contacts with the Sabres over the years being good indicators that he won't leave.

Well, I've called Reino the slowest player on the team because he is in fact the slowest player on the team, both in tight and in longer runs. I agree that he uses his vision, anticipation, hockey IQ and passing skills to make plays -- but those factors don't make him not slow -- they allow him to play at the NHL level, which he would otherwise be unable to do. To be clear, I agree that he looks reborn over the past month or so, and I am glad to see it (and I will note that GAFan noted Reino's proclivity for slow starts and strong 2nd halves several times -- so good on him for that one). However, no one should forget that he AGAIN didn't show up this season until the horse had left the barn and gone to the glue factory. All the pressure is off, both on Reino and on the team as a whole. They aren't getting the opponents' A games, or even their B games. I'm pretty far away from assuming that either the Sabres or Reino will start off next season looking like they do right now. And I sure as heck don't want to give Reino a fat contract this summer.

Well, I don't think anyone is opposed to giving Olofsson and/or Smith shots at the big leagues. My point is simply that (i) if he's a UFA in a few months (and Hammy could certainly be wrong about that), it's at least 50/50 that he decides to sign elsewhere and (ii) of course it would be great if he were as good as Panarin, but it's much more likely that he's as effective as Antipin.

Because there are plenty of teams that can use a young, cheap scoring winger and that are also much better teams than the Sabres and, depending on one's perspective, in more desirable cities. It's also pretty ill-advised to depend on a 170-lb rookie who's never played in NA to hold down a top winger spot.

Pretty good article. Thanks.

Couple of nuggets from the WGR article that I found interesting: I hate to say it, but if he's good, it would seem that there's a good chance that he signs elsewhere.

I’ve seen a good amount of Halak, as he plays in town here. He’s had a rocky year this year but was at least as good as Lehner last year and the year before. He also handled a similarly dysfunctional situation better than Lehner did. If you’re going to consider sv% over the past 3 years as a persuasive stat — which is reasonable— then Blue’s point about him being 26th in sv% this year is similarly persuasive. And 26th is below the mediocre tier and solidly in the “likely not a starter next year” tier. It’s also worth noting IMHO that his sv% has gotten worse each year during that period. This is part of the reason I don’t think I’m “throwing out the stats” (although I admit to throwing them out when it comes to comparing Lehner and Price, as I suspect pretty much everyone would).

Wow. Outstanding.

Which logic am I omitting to use? The common sense/eye test approach yields the unavoidable verdict that he's someone who goes to pieces in crunch time, who repeats the same killer mistakes (coming off the post, depositing fat rebounds on the doorstep, not cutting off the crossing pass, etc.) over and over and who simply does not deliver wins. In addition, in Lehner's case (unlike with Price), the common sense/eye test approach is consistent with the stats -- Lehner is in the bottom 20% of NHL starters. I don't disagree that there is a good tier of goalies and a mediocre tier, and that Lehner COULD be part of the mediocre tier along with 10-12 others and COULD be starting somewhere else next year. However, (i) there is a significant likelihood that he is instead in the "bad enough to be below the mediocre tier and thus not starting somewhere next year" tier and (ii) we've all seen plenty of him at this point -- wouldn't you rather take a shot on someone else? Maybe the next Gibson or Anderson or Schneider or Bernier or Vasilevsky (which Lehner was supposed to be but isn't)?

This is the ultimate “stats vs common sense” comment. Price is a possible HOFer. Lehner is likely in his 2nd and last year as an NHL starter. Price is having a down year on a team in decline. Lehner is simply showing that he doesn’t have the right stuff. Leaving contracts aside, is there a hockey fan, observer, coach or GM anywhere who wouldn’t rather have Price for the next 4 seasons than Lehner? Of course not.

Just watched the Arrival (alien movie with Amy Adams and Jeremy Renner). Free on Amazon Prime. OK but not great. B or B-minus.

I think it's fair to say that Harrington is often right when criticizing the on-ice results -- but literally anyone with eyes could do that. I also think he adds essentially zero value in terms of hockey analysis or knowledge of NHL dynamics or behind-the-scenes machinations at the Sabres.

And he is freaking terrible in the 3rd period, OT and the SO.