nfreeman

I thought Allen looked pretty good yesterday. He made quite a few great plays -- both passing and running. If he hadn't overthrown one of the WRs on the deep post with about 7 min left, or if Clay had been able to make the catch on the last play (admittedly a tough catch but one that a highly-paid TE probably should make), it would've been a great win for him and the team.

I thought he did not look ready for prime time vs Florida.

Great thread and OP, @Randall Flagg. My areas of disagreement: - Pommer -- I'd give him a B-minus, as he appears to have hit the wall. So while his start may have exceeded expectations, he seems to have settled back to expectation-level. - KO -- I'd give him a B -- as I've posted elsewhere, his legs look good, he's playing a strong-on-the-puck game and is on pace for 40-ish points, all of which is good, but he's got 1 goal in his last 13 games and his hands in the O-zone look lousy to me. I'll be happily surprised if he gets to 20 goals this season. IMHO, that adds up to exceeding expectations, but not wildly so. - Sheary -- I'd give him a B -- I think his speed and tenacity, especially on the forecheck, have made him pretty effective. His absence is a factor in the Sabres backsliding into a 1-line team. - TT -- I'd give him a B -- he's showing signs of being a multitalented scorer and is pretty dangerous whenever he gets the puck in the O-zone. I think at this point he's solidly exceeding expectations.

Thomas has 1 goal and 7 points in 19 games. TT has 4 goals and 6 points in 19 games, and has demonstrated the ability to score goals in multiple different ways. I agree that it isn't apples-to-apples due to difference in ages, but TT is clearly exceeding the expectations that many here voiced.

FWIW (which isn't that much given how early these guys are in their careers), Tommer is outperforming the other Blues' forward prospects that many here decried JB for not getting in the ROR trade (Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas and Klim Kostin) -- although to be fair, Tommer is a year older than Thomas and Kostin; he's the same age as Kyrou.

I find it kinda interesting that after the big blowup in Ottawa last summer over his GF's bizarre behavior, Mike Hoffman, with 12-11-23 and just under 18 min per game in 23 games, appears to be having a better season so far than Karlsson is having.

FLA's line combos: LW C RW Forwards Evgeny Dadonov Rating: 78.7#16 LW Aleksander Barkov Rating: 81.0#14 C Mike Hoffman Rating: 76.4#28 RW FL1 Rating Rating: 78.70#14 FL1 Jonathan Huberdeau Rating: 77.1#24 LW Jared McCann Rating: 71.7#125 C Dryden Hunt Rating: 72.5#67 RW FL2 Rating Rating: 73.79#21 FL2 Frank Vatrano Rating: 72.6#96 LW Nick Bjugstad Rating: 72.8#90 C Troy Brouwer Rating: 69.8#104 RW FL3 Rating Rating: 71.74#14 FL3 Micheal Haley Rating: 68.8#133 LW Juho Lammikko Rating: 73.1#75 C Colton Sceviour Rating: 71.0#143 RW FL4 Rating Rating: 70.97#10 FL4 Defensive Pairings Defense Michael Matheson Rating: 73.3#44 LD Aaron Ekblad Rating: 74.3#29 RD DL1 Rating Rating: 73.84#18 DL1 Keith Yandle Rating: 77.2#12 LD Mark Pysyk Rating: 71.1#77 RD DL2 Rating Rating: 74.16#11 DL2 Bogdan Kiselevich Rating: 72.1#65 LD MacKenzie Weegar Rating: 70.8#83 RD DL3 Rati

@Randall Flagg -- I agree that Sobotka doesn't create much offense, and that ideally a guy who plays 13-16 min per game would create more. But you've repeatedly made pretty extreme assertions about how bad he is (perhaps not in this thread, but that is really neither here nor there) -- those are what I'm pushing back on. He's a smart player who plays with a bit of an edge and is pretty much always in the right position. As for his fancystats -- as you point out, he's played quite a bit with Reino, and when he does his offensive stats are solid -- but I'd expect that playing with Reino probably impairs his d-zone stats. And I'd expect that playing with a running-on-fumes Pommer the last few games has hurt both his O-zone and D-zone stats (with the periodically shaky ERod also hurting his d-zone stats). There's a reason Howie trusts him in crunch time. I'll explain more over lunch.

My game notes: - That was a great hockey game. - The Sabres were without one of their top defensemen and still went toe-to-toe with maybe the best team in the league for most of the game, took it to them for long stretches and could easily have won that game. - Kucherov is awesome. - Neither team got good goaltending. Hutton was better than TB’s guy, but still not at his best. He needs to stop that long shot from Paquette with 6 min to go. - Dahlin had a pretty shaky game in the D zone. Nelson and Beaulieu were surprisingly decent. - They sure could’ve used Bergy on the checking line instead of Elie. - If Sheary is ready tomorrow night, I’d drop KO to Sobotka’s line and drop Pommer to either the checking line or the press box. - I am not seeing what others are seeing from KO. His legs are back and the will is there, but his hands are where scoring chances go to die. - So was the Hunwick starting thing just a hoax? And is there any word on McCabe? He’s an important piece. - Tomorrow is a test of their mental toughness. Are they going to feel sorry for themselves in the 2nd half of the back-to-back on the road after a tough loss? Or are they going to bounce back strong? - Flagg is a terrific poster but holy mackerel is he out to lunch on Risto and Sobotka. - It was a great streak. Probably not sustainable given all the OT/SO/1-goal wins, but great nonetheless. - They’ve showed a lot of heart. Keep it up boys. Go Sabres.

Here we come.

TB's line combos: LW C RW Forwards Yanni Gourde Rating: 77.0#26 LW Steven Stamkos Rating: 80.0#22 C J.T. Miller Rating: 74.0#60 RW FL1 Rating Rating: 76.99#20 FL1 Tyler Johnson Rating: 74.9#50 LW Brayden Point Rating: 83.9#7 C Nikita Kucherov Rating: 86.2#1 RW FL2 Rating Rating: 81.69#1 FL2 Alex Killorn Rating: 72.8#91 LW Anthony Cirelli Rating: 73.1#78 C Mathieu Joseph Rating: 73.5#50 RW FL3 Rating Rating: 73.11#6 FL3 Adam Erne Rating: 71.5#95 LW Cedric Paquette Rating: 70.2#159 C Ryan Callahan Rating: 71.5#81 RW FL4 Rating Rating: 71.06#8 FL4 Defensive Pairings Defense Victor Hedman Rating: 80.4#3 LD Dan Girardi Rating: 71.7#64 RD DL1 Rating Rating: 76.04#11 DL1 Ryan McDonagh Rating: 77.7#11 LD Erik Cernak Rating: 73.2#40 RD DL2 Rating Rating: 75.42#5 DL2 Braydon Coburn Rating: 71.4#88 LD Mikhail Sergachev Rating: 73.2#48 RD DL3 Rating Rating: 72.29 We can beat them.

Good stuff here boys.

FTR, I think @Randall Flagg is right about STL wanting to dump Bergy’s contract. He’s well overpaid in both dollars and term. I think his evaluation of Sobotka’s fancystats is impaired by both small sample size and the new guy/new team/new coach/new system distortion. I think Sobotka is a pretty decent player — probably a bit better than the guys on the checking line, but not good enough to create much offense without good offensive players on his line. i totally understand Flagg’s frustration with the simplistic nature of “the Sabres got better without ROR and STL got worse with him, so he must be a cancer,” as it is highly unscientific and squarely contradicted by ROR’s fancystats — but we should remember that those stats aren’t quite scientific either. I think @Robviously is right that ROR was trying to force his way out of here and that the locker cleanout interview was part of the strategy for doing so. I think the $7.5MM was a factor in the timing of the trade, but I don’t think TP ordered JB to make the trade in time to save the money. I also don’t think the Sabres would’ve gotten much more than they got from STL if they had eaten the $7.5MM. I think as long as the Sabres are crushing it and STL stinks, it is inevitable that there will be plenty of anti-ROR posts here, which is totally fine.

@Randall Flagg -- First, Pronger and Chara in their primes were both better than Karlsson. Second, as to ROR: while I respect your perspective, I think you've created a bit of a tautology when you insist on hard evidence for the "locker room cancer" theory, and seemingly conclude that the lack thereof means that that theory is false. We will almost certainly not get any hard evidence anytime soon, and probably not ever, as to the reasons JB traded him (or for the reasons he traded Kane or for that matter made any other move). All we have is circumstantial evidence, including: - He forced his way out of Colorado despite having quite a few dynamic, talented, young teammates. - He openly stated that all of the losing he was enduring here had made him lose his love of the game. - Numerous professional sportswriters on the Sabres beat reported that there were problems in the locker room and that ROR was a bummer to be around. - He's now on his 3rd team at age 27 despite being an apparently good player who's never been a free agent. - JB and Howie took his measure and decided to move him for a prospect, a couple of draft picks and some spare parts. - The Sabres got dramatically better when he left and the Blues got dramatically worse when he joined. Are there, as you've ably pointed out, multiple moving pieces at play here that impair the probative value of this "evidence", especially the last 2 items? Of course. But let's not pretend that the concerns about ROR are from outer space, or that his value, or any player's value, can be measured solely by on-ice production.

Welcome!

It's almost like a grad student or someone should start a "Shootout Goal of the Year" thread or something like that.

Don't forget Halliburton, JFK and Area 51. It's all connected.

What's the debate? Everyone knows they get rubbery in the microwave and the toaster is better.

Another SabreSpace indicator: 29-page GDTs!

Make sure you have some wings!

Also this:

This is well overstated IMHO. Bergy's been healthy-scratched a couple of times, but usually plays when healthy, and is a key part of the checking line, which has become an important line for this team.

Then there's this: