Ghost of Dwight Drane

Preakness Saturday..... Going to be a smaller field. Maybe down to 10 by Saturday. Gemologist got hurt in the Derby, but not bad....foot bruise, but he's taking some time off now. At least there was some excuse for that total clunker. Bodemeister until further notice. I will bet him even at 7-5 unless I see a new shooter that looks tempting at 20-1.

Why do they have 3 hours to take it? Is there a written rule saying you have to be there at the start? At least you speak English. The only reason I don't embrace UB is their use of grad assistants who have command of about 20% of the language and culture. I felt ripped off. There were some very good ones, but there is no excuse for some of the people they put out there. Parents paying their kids' way would crap a brick if they were in some of those classes

The first few pages are a really fun read. I guess some people just love being miserable....... ;) :P

That should tell you something......and it ain't good.

Buddy was a man of his word and actually got him a bit cheaper than I would have expected. Fred and Buddy...class acts. What other GM comes out in public and says "we gotta focus on the draft, and then we'll give Freddy his money."? One week later.....deal done. I think people are starting to understand why I was so high on the organization before last year. No-nonsense honesty and hard work really has a synergistic effect on the locker room, and now it's starting to well amongst the fans. Like I've said, I'm proud of these guys and trust them. So...Freddy gets $3 million in his bank account this morning, makes another $2 mil this year, then makes anywhere between $2.5-4mil in cash in each of the next two years. Even if he goes downhill in 2013 and gets cut the last year, he walks away with between $7.5-9 million, which is a nice reward for a good soldier. Be prepared for one more solid FA signing as the cuts come through going into camp. The WR/TE group is still very young and could use a classy vet, even if he has lost a gear.

Yeah....that's cool though. I really like the horse. I told you I was on tilt. Did ok today. Of the 6 picks I keyed on, 2 wins at 5-1 and 2 places. The formula held today.....Bodemeister in 2nd, 2 closers flying 3rd + 4th....although I would have never touched Dullahan.....and I'll Have Another is the same type of horse as Gemologist. Bodemeister in the Preakness as long as he is fine. Probably 9-5, but might be worth it. There is 1 horse that I love who has only started twice named Street Thug. I highly doubt he will be in the Preakness, but keep an eye out for that name going forward.

Track has dried out fast. Speed is holding up very well.....most winners are on the lead or close. The inside looks good....2-3 path is the place to be for sure as horses are winning stretch battles from there. Turf softened a little which may help my Slim Shadey selection, being a French horse in the race before Derby. Gemologist is not hot on the board, but holding. All systems go for me. Everyone keeps talking about Daddy Nose Best, but I think turf is where those Scat Daddy's want to be. Who knows. Don't NOT do something because of someone else. I have learned that over the years. If anything, maybe do a little something extra so you don't hate yourself if you were right.

Race 4 off the turf, don't ignore my pick! I wish that went on turf without scratches because he would have paid nice. 5-1 is still good, but that wasn't what I was hoping for. I hooked him up with the 2 favorites next race, then City Sage in the 6th......should make for a big Pick 3 if my longshot special pays off.

There you go. Race 4 off the turf today......so ignore my pick. Sloppy early, but track should dry out by the Derby to at least good.

I'll give you a few ideas where I'm looking. Race 3 Golden Ticket #5, going to be a favorite, but I like what I have seen from the horse and there are enough decent horses to keep the odds at 3-1 or better. Try out the 3 with him in an exacta box. Race 4 #7 Night Party, in good form and one of the few speed horses. Should be a better turf horse than dirt, and at 4 years old, now is the time of year a turf horse makes the most improvement...spring/summer of their 4yo year. Tough race, but should get some good odds to at least try a place bet. 8-1/12-1 Race 6 #5 City Sage....listed at 20-1, really on a roll but didn't show much on turf early in career. City Place is a sneaky good turf sire though and the connections are lesser known. Could be a chance at a bomb as he is plenty fast. Box him with #10 and #4 in exactas and tri. If I like how he looks I will try to score. Race 8 #10 Hungry Island, lost to the favorite in the race twice by less than 2 lengths. I think for the price is a better bet if stays 6-1. #8 is a solid choice to back up in exactas Race 10 Tough race but at morning line of 20-1...which I think will be closer to 10-1.....#5 Slim Shadey. Really tough race though. #7 Data Link is doing great though and is worth a look if odds drift up. Probably a little long for him though. Always bet your own hunch. I only know what I have seen on a few of these and have no good scoop.

Here is a link to the live odds. http://www.kentuckyderby.com/contenders/kentucky-derby-live-odds Don't count on these until there are a few million in the pool at least. Right now the best idea is the probable payouts of the Oaks/Derby Double. Union Rags looks like a solid favorite at this point. My early guess sees Union Rags at 9-2, Bodemeister 6-1, Gemologist 7-1, Creative Cause 9-1, Dullahan 9-1, Daddy Nose Best 12-1, Alpha 13-1, Take Charge Indy 15-1, I'll Have Another 15-1, Hansen 15-1, Went the Day Well 17-1

The only candidate I see is Creative Cause. You usually don't walk your horse 2 days in a row the week of the Derby.

I would have like to see him with the new D-line. I'm not happy about it because A)McGee can't stay healthy B)McKelvin has no clue C)I am not sold on Williams D)Gimore is a rookie Unless they have something up their sleeve, I think this could come back to bite them. Granted he isn't all world, but he is like a #4 stay at home defenseman. Those guys are more valuable at crunch time.

Bible-belt! Drf.com and TVG are out there, but you may run into the same problem. There used to be a stupid law in NY that you couldn't watch races from NY unless you went to OTB or the track itself. You could bet online, but not see what you were betting on. Sorry. There are offshore sites that pay track odds, but that's a little sketchy in my opinion. Bodog? Again, maybe all these places are outlawed as well.

That's some brilliant shiha right there.

twinspires.com is the one I use and find it easy......they usually give out a bonus for newcomers. You have to give your social and bank account much like paypal, but I have never had a problem. They will grant you credit until your transfer can be made from your bank with no fees. It goes in the next business day too if you withdraw. I'm ok with everything. Every horse here has questions, so it's just a matter of who is doing the best that day and a little luck. Box the tri if you want insurance. A $1 box costs $6 for 3 horses.

Yeah.....just reading that made me feel I was in an enclosed room with a blender grinding in my ears and a half dozen 6 year olds chasing each other in circles around me. A nice Cliff Notes version of his last 25 years of visits to his therapist. God bless him. Always seemed like a good dude.

No problem. Don't confuse 1 race with overall success. Pletcher won dozens of races worth more money than the Derby and is the leading trainer this decade with a few dozen training titles. It's more a credit that he got those horses to the Derby as most owners will want to run if they qualify, even if they won't be one of the favorites. He's the best administrator in the game, and could probably GM a hockey team to boot....but it would be the Stars or the Rangers.

http://www.drf.com/horse/bodemeister Daily Racing Form has great coverage. on this link, they have a tab to every horse with video analysis. Tons of Derby coverage. Mike Welsch has a segment called Derby Clocker. He's on scene and is VERY good at what he does. You can find that here too. Brisnet has good daily reports with details and quotes from the people involved.

OK.......I have a good idea where I'm going. Like I said, there are a good 8 horses or so that can win this, but I feel confident putting my money on this horse, even if I am not confident he will win. Gemologist He hasn't raced a ton, but I really like what is going on here. He has the same owner and trainer as Super Saver who won the Derby 2 years ago and has taken the same path. He won a stakes race at 2 at Churchill, took the winter off, then came back for only 2 races before the Derby. What I loved about his last race in the Wood is that he had a late turn of foot.....got clear by a few and then waited on horses to come to him. That's not a good trait in itself, but when the next best horse and a top conder himself, Alpha, came up to him, he immediately rebroke and turned him away. He has pedigree, ability, and heart. He moves pretty well. He doesn't look like a monster, but Pletcher knows how to space out workloads and try and peak out at the right time. His jockey is Javier Castellano who I don't think has ever won the Derby, but he is one of the best. He isn't the biggest, strongest, smartest, or craftiest....but he is right near the top in every category. A really classy guy as well. He won a decent race for us and showed up at 7am the next morning with 2 boxes of gourmet pastries and to check on the horse. Right now Gemologist is floating between 3rd and 8th on a lot of lists. I think his odds will be right up there near the favorites....maybe 8-1 or so. That's still a nice price if you believe in him. He probably will settle just off the pace in 5th or so. I think he can rate if he has to. Underneath is a cluster. I have a longstanding theory that doesn't always work. In the Derby bet a physical, grinding horse that can get through traffic without being intimidated. A lot of times the best pure horse on speed and talent will come in 2nd, and you aim for a closer or longshot for 3rd. If you use that theory, Bodemiester and Hansen fit the bill. I love Hansen, but I don't think this is his trip. He will probably be best at a mile or a tad over. Bodemiester hasn't run a lot but has put up the best speed figures. He has been impressive, but has only 3 races. That's huge when you have a 20 horse field. A smart horse is almost as good as a fast horse when you are running this race. I can see Bodemiester being favorite here at 6-1 or so. I can't take him. Union Rags was the consensus favorite until his last race. He just hasn't progressed since last year. He has the build, the pedigree, the style, but for whatever reason hasn't exploded. I can see him winning or not even coming close. Tough read. I will use him in the trifecta though. Creative Cause.....I really like this horse and the way he is put together, but people I trust seem to think he is a tick off. He's by a sire that gets physical issues, so wouldn't be shocked he isn't 100%. Really nice horse though that has the talent to win. I'll Have Another.....this horse has F'd me but good. I like the way he is put together. He is a handsome fella too. I am just sour grapes because I loved the way he looked going into a race at 40-1 and would have won a handicapping contest if I used him, but I didn't. I don't use him next time because I figured I missed my shot...wins again. I'm on tilt with him. He is a looker though and another that might be a better shot in the Preakness if he goes on. Take Charge Indy.......This will probably be who I hook up with Gemologist. He has that grinding style and enough speed to get there. He is a perfect pedigree for this as his momma was one of my favorite horses ever. People think he got an easy trip in the Florida Derby, but he is a legit horse. Calvin Borel is on him....so that balances out any longshot factor. He will be in the 15-1 range I would guess. Sabercat......he's an ok horse that I can see as a longshot maybe getting into the superfecta. If you want to make the Sabres play.....it wouldn't be hopeless to put $2 on him to show. Probably finishes 10th, but oh well. If you want a stone-cold, retire early, $20 straight trifecta bet.......1)Gemologist 2)Bodemiester 3)Take Charge Indy That would probably get you $600 for $1 bet. Don't be stupid, and only bet what you can afford to lose no matter who you bet on. Entries come out Wednesday for the rest of the card so I will have more then.

He might end up the favorite. I like his style more for the Preakness, but I'm not even sure if I like him. This has been a tough year for me to get excited about anyone. There are 7 or 8 horses I can see betting. There will probably be 10 horses between 6-1 and 20-1 so there will be value. I will try and find some juicy exotics on the undercard or the day before. If you hit just one you can play the rest of the weekend for free.

That's sweet of you. I'll be sure to put you on the 10-1 shot that finishes 4th. My pick for last year is ranked #1 in the country now. This year......I have no clue. Need to see how this week goes. I'm not going to be down there, but have friends in the shipping barn. Will break thing sdown Wednesday/Thursday.

The best part is all the personal information of him and the agent given at the front. If you are on a pickup soccer team and live in Buffalo, give Potter a call. He should be able to help.

This highlight reel is as exciting as a Darcy Regier sex tape.