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Everything posted by Ghost of Dwight Drane
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Thanks.....I'm excited for the next week or 2 no matter what. I have to assume they are going to "try", but I don't know how "big" their vision is. With Vinny being cut, and rumors of names like Malone, and Boston already saying they can't afford to bring back guys, etc.....this is a once in a lifetime chance in my opinion. I'm glad so many posters see the validity of the plan, even though it is hard to see the Sabres coming anywhere close to that in reality. It would validate Pegula and Darcy all in one swoop. It would energize the fans and actually reward the season ticket holders who stayed on. It would give Pegula 5 years of fun the next 2 weeks....and heck, maybe we could actually be good? What is the plan for success the next 3-4 years???? "Suffer"....at least that was what I was told. Nothing changes....you still move guys for picks and prospects...build an incredible young talent base which you hope hits at least near 50% because of the depth of the draft and high selection, have them grow together and be ready at 22-23 to make the step up when all the "old" guys are ready to leave, and watch them play together for the next decade. You will then have fresh money once again to ADD to that young, extremely talented, and cheap $ base of talent as the old guys leave....and offer 2 or 3 guys in their prime, big money to come and play with that group of guys.
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The thing is...you ARE a contender as the players see what you are doing and you let it be known. One of the reasons nobody wants to come here is that the team has been so soft and poor. You just gutted the losing culture and are going after proven winners, even on their downside. You flood the market to 20-30 guys and you will get 5-7 quality players here with that 20% premium. Think of it this way in this market for only THIS year......there is a high school dance. Usually 50 girls and 50 guys go. There are 10 hot girls....25 ok girls....and 15 not so swift. 10 jocks...25 ok guys....and 15 dogs. If the Sabres are a dog....and they ask only 1 or 2 hot girls to dance....odds are the girls will say no and prefer to dance with the jocks. If you ask 4 or 5 ok girls....1 will probably dance with you at some point. But say...for just this 1 time.....just this dance....all of a sudden there is an exchange program, and there are 15 girls in from Columbia....they love to dance and 6 are hot...7 are ok....and 2 are rough. And just for this dance....your dad let you take his Porsche...you're still ugly, but nobody else at the dance has such a car for this special dance with all the Columbian girls. What is the best plan of action? There are now 16 hot girls and 32 ok girls at the dance....only 50 guys total....and you have the fastest car of the bunch. If you still only ask 1 or 2 hot girls and 5 ok girls to dance....the hot ones will probably still say no, but now maybe 3 or 4 of the ok girls will dance. If you ask ALL the hot girls to dance, and they see the Porsche and shortage of guys....guess what? I'm willing to bet that you get at least 1 to dance, if not multiple girls. And if you ask 10 ok girls to dance as well....you may get almost every last one of them to dance with you. This offseason is setting up to be the perfect conditions to execute a plan like this. The Sabres are in a prime spot, ugly as they may be perceived. And if Vanek and Miller have lower trade values now....and the Sabres still plan on suffering.....we are in deep doo-doo. I know...I know....but given the conditions and after what we have been told by Pegula, Black and Regier.....what is the downside of this plan? It is possible to execute, and within the parameters of what we have been told our owner is willing to do. I don't expect anything near this to get done, but it is a valid and possible plan. You have to have everyone in the organization working their tail off for the next 2 weeks.....but it is so possible I can taste it.
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And if that's how it ends up....that's fine. We have been told: 1) Pegula is willing to outspend everyone and doesn't care what others think about it 2) Prepare to suffer with a bunch of youth for the near future and don't expect contention 3) While Vanek and Miller would be nice to have, we have already sold off some of the culture of losing that couldn't get a sniff of the Cup over the years and that they probably don't want to be here status quo. You can also get top picks for them and replace their salary with capable players 4) Trying to target 1 or 2 top free agents a year hasn't worked and the team as constructed can't make the playoffs anyway By implementing this plan, you still are building for the future with major players in the 1st round of the draft and prospects, but instead of targeting 1 or 2 guys that will have to "suffer" anyway over the next few years, you take Pegula at his word and spend to the cap for the next 3-4 years, even with once top level talent who are past their prime. You were going to suck, so even if it doesn't work out, in 4 years the young talent you were developing anyway will be ready for reasonable cost....and maybe...just MAYBE....fans who have had to endure ticket hikes year after year with zero results can actually see some entertaining hockey from some top level talent, albeit on the decline from their peak. In 4 years they will be off the books, and in the meantime they will be able to work with the youngsters and help them develop. Would you rather see a top 9 next year of Ott/Lieno/Stafford/Hodgson/Ennis/Porter/Flynn/Gerbe/Foligno....or Briere/LeCavalier/Iginla/Hodgson/Dupuis/Ott/Jagr/Ennis/Foligno??? That roster IS possible....and if you are clear what the plan is, and move boldly and decisively......you can pull it off. If one of those guys is horrible beyond repair, you still have a buyout you can use next year.
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Do I expect this? Heck No! Darcy takes a full year to come up with 1 trade idea. This is a full-blown, balls to the wall war plan that needs to be concentrated on and achieved in a 2 week timeframe on short notice. Do I wish someone would get this idea to Ted Black and Terry Pegula today showing there is zero downside in attemping it? YES I do. It would be nice to have them see what is POSSIBLE, and compare it to what Regier is telling them or planning. If it is the same idea, God Bless him...... If the GR guys are browsing today, please feel free to use the idea on air...let it be known what is possible and how there is only upside to this. If someone sees downside, please let me know. Your only risk is moving Myers, and you can have Briere, Monahan and a prospect for him at the same salary...or whatever other combo you can come up with. You are moving Stafford and buying out Lieno's bad contract and bringing in slightly inflated contracts in the open market, but by you overpaying 20% this year, it will probably still turn out better than being the top bidder in FA 2 years ago.
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This is a once in a lifetime opportunity. The Sabres are in by far the best position of any team in the league to do this. They have few major NHL ready assets, were planning on moving them for picks/prospects anyway....and an owner willing to outspend anyone in the league supposedly. They also have a recruiting problem. They need to pay a "Buffalo Premium" to get guys here.....and when you try to lure just 1 guy in with the talent on the roster and the history and reputation of the organization....it is tough if not impossible. Because there will be an extra 15 or so quality names out there on top of an already decent FA crop, a lower salary cap this year, most contenders already at or over the cap, and the Sabres have the potential to be $33 million under the cap......the Sabres can be the master of the universe for a week. You let it be known what the plan is.....say you have $33 to spend and that you will be using every last penny....and you let it be known that you will offer to all the top guys...and first come, first serve. Richards, LeCavalier, Briere, Iginla, Morrow, Fillpula, Jagr, Clarkson, Ryder, Dupuis, Clowe, MacArthur, Riberio, Bickell, Lydman, Stahlberg, Ference, etc...... You put numbers on all those guys ahead of time...you add in a Buffalo Premium....and you get those offers on the table to each and every one of them at 12:01.....when the money is gone, the money is gone.....Is Briere worth $12 million for 3 years? Offer him $14. Jagr $9 million for 3 years? Offer $11. You will get 2 or 3 guys to sign within an hour, and then the league knows you mean business....and maybe a Ference scrambles and takes your offer...etc. You go bold and hard....have it planned out ahead of time, and execute it....a true war plan. What is the worst thing that happens? You were going to stock up on picks and prospects anyway. You were going to suck the next 3 years until youth developed. You have an owner who says he is willing to spend like mad. There is ZERO downside to this. You can't Darcy this though.....you need to start putting this plan into action TODAY. You need to sit down with all your pro scouts, and get feelers out to agents....and get packages ready. You need to be on the phone completing deals for Vanek and Miller, and have it done by draft day. You need to let it be known Myers is available....and you need to get these trades done at the same time before the rest of the league figures out what you are doing. And you can't pick and choose who you want in here over someone else. You planned on sucking.....don't get cute. Offer the 20 guys out there that can help, add the 20% Buffalo Premium.....and watch them come in. If you get 7 guys between 3 and 5 per year....great. If Richards, Iginla, Clarkson sign on...great. You WILL.....have a playoff capable team overnight, and you WILL have a boatload of top draft choices to develop the next few years and who will be locked up for reasonable money for years to come....all coming on the scene TOGETHER. This can be achieved. They can pull this off.
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It's not tampering if you make a general statement. "Hey AgentX...this is Darcy....just a heads up, we're clearing a bunch of space and expect to have $33 million available under the cap after the draft where we plan on taking 5 guys in the top 16 and letting them develop for 3-4 years. We plan on spending to the cap next year and getting that done by the 2nd week of July. Just a FYI." If you are a little more bold you add afterwards...."Hey Agent of Briere....I would really like to get together with you sometime in Buffalo in early July. Maybe you can meet me at Danny's on Abbot. They have a great Beef on Weck. At the lunch special of $5....I can eat 4 of them for sure....At dinner for $6, I can usually only eat 3....need to make room for the salad bar....."
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For a regular team that is near the cap and a borderline contender...sure, it is safe to make a fair trade for a good talent. As far as the Sabres go though, if they cleared house by now and had that $33 million sitting there, there would be nobody like that in the catbird seat. Pegula is willing to spend. With the lower cap, inflated number of quality FA's, and most top teams near the cap....a player that would cost $7 million in FA 2 years ago may be $5 and change now....$4 is $2.5-3.....but in the Sabres position, you could still offer that $7 and $4...blow everyone out of the water, and make it known ahead of time what the plan is......that's how you get these guys in here. It's a risk, but with little downside. You were going to suck anyway and move your assets.....so the worst thing that happens is you still acquire a ton of top picks and prospects, but have no salary. Moving Myers is the only thing that would be extra to what your plan was anyway. Now, you can become an instant playoff contender at the least. You can pull this off still, but need to be on the phone NOW....and give agents and players around the league a good 2 weeks heads up on what you are about to do. And like I said...you can give Iginla 4 for $24 where he maybe only worth 3 for 15 right now, because in 3 years you are going to have a boatload of top talent ready for the NHL at an average cost of less than $2 million, and can probably keep them in tow together for another 5 years at a similar level. If someone at that point makes an offer sheet...ok....have fun with it....we are loaded and can afford to lose a guy or 2 and you keep the cupboards stocked for the future. If the Sabres can make a bold decision in the next 48-72 hours....they may position themselves to be a playoff team and true Cup contender for the next decade. At worst, they go ahead with their original plan minus Tyler Myers........seems like a risk/reward ratio I would take all day.
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I think the problem is, at the deadline, there were really only 8-10 teams in a position to sell. The Sabres plan was to move guys all along. Now the market for Vanek just got weaker. Why pay up for him when you can get anywhere from 10-15 forwards with comparable talent for free and at a possible lower salary? Now that the names are coming in fast and furious on these buyouts, people are waking up to the fact this may be a unique opportunity. It's a lot easier for a team that stinks to pull this plan off when it was your plan all along to get rid of assets for picks and prospects. I'm not going to blame Darcy, but man, you can still almost pull this off......you have Pegula here too who is willing to spend. Maybe only 2 or 3 teams are in the position to do this now....
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Because with $33 million in cap space....you make it known to them that they are all coming here. That's the whole point...it's a wholesale shift to take advantage of a once in a lifetime scenario. FA prices will be deflated with all the buyouts. You are going to have a total of 20 or so top 6 forwards. top 4 Dmen, starting goalies on the market....a declining cap and many contenders already butting close to it....you get the word out to the agents what your plan is ahead of time....and you go to town. You can even overpay these vets because in a few years, you are going to have a farm system loaded with potential top players signed at an average of $1.5 million per year, and looking at another 4 years of tender offers or RFA. You are an instant playoff contender, you vertically increase your profit margins by loading up the Amerks...and just when the guys you sign have nothing left in the tank, you get the cavalry of a dozen Top 15 picks from the '12-'13 drafts.......
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Ain't it? Think about it though....OK...we are what, 6 million under the new cap, more? Buyout Lieno....10....if at the deadline you move Miller and Stafford to Edmonton for 7 pick....21...Vanek to Columbus for 14 and 2 decent prospects...28....Myers to Philly for #11 and an ok prospect...33 million under the cap. You now have #7, 8, 11, 14, 16 in the draft and 33 million to spend. $10 mill goes to sign your picks...so 23 million. You could pick up the new French Connection in Vinny, Briere and Dupris for a total of 14....sign Iginla for 6....get a top 4 d-man for 3....draft Nurse, Monahan, Horvat, Shinkaruk, Lazar....let them develop over the next 2-3 years with Girgensons, Grigorenko, Larsson and the 3 prospects you just picked up in trades......Rochester probably dominates the AHL and sells an extra 2,000 seats per game, netting Pegula an extra $4 million in profit per year after concessions and merchandise sales.....and your current roster is (Ott/Vinny/Iginla, Ennis/Briere/Dupris, Foligno/Hodgson/Grigorenko, Kaleta/Porter/Flynn, Ehrhoff/Sekera, Weber/New D, Pysyk/McNabb, Enroth/?)..... I would sign on for that in a millisecond.
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I was just thinking....a team that has been playing on the cheap can become an instant contender this year. With all the buyouts, the FA period is going to be artificially plump. You start adding names like Vinny and Malone and Briere to Iginla, Morrow, Flipula, Dupris, etc.....and the fact that many teams are tight with the cap to begin with.....MAN! A true hockey genius would have moved out all the dead space for assets at the deadline last year and picked up a playoff-ready roster on the cheap. Imagine if we had moved Vanek, Miller, Myers, Stafford and cleared up $22 million on top of the 6 or so already built in. You'd be sitting on another 4 1st round picks and probably 3 or 4 true prospects, would have the cupboards stocked for a decade of dominance in 3 or 4 years...and after signing your picks, could still go out and sign 3 or 4 guys with top 6 talent. Yikes! That would be cool.
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Still confused why someone comes in 2 different times pimping their own site and get away with it.
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Since there's no hockey.....strapping in a gin IV and going to have a Larry Sanders marathon......best show in TV history!
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OK...do I have flies in the house, or is something up with the overhead camera?
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The Earl of Bud was a freaking 60yo firefighter with 1 move.......enjoy!
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Go Bruins! Papa needs to pay the AC bill the next 3 months..... Oh come'on.....he's awesome!
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Chz>Fabulous Moulah
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Foligno for the Panthers Ice Girls since we're on a roll.....
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I'd give up a #1 pick for 89.2% of the GM's though....
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This is a sports franchise where thousands of players need to be evaluated in a multitude of leagues on a consistant basis. Decisive opinions need to be formed on a certain % of these players in order for the franchise to acquire, and maintain an NHL team and a feeder pipeline. This isn't a C++ project, or deciding how many cases of paper need to be ordered. The owner, had Zero experience in a talent evaluation role or sports ownership prior to purchasing the Sabres. His public display of knowledge has been less than inspiring so far. To hear from all the team executives over the past few months that there is a flat, decision making process, is more than a bit alarming. I'm just interested to see what happens going into the draft and FA. After that, I feel a lot like Jerry Sullivan.........it doesn't even matter anymore. There is no reason to raise alarm anymore. The building is smoldering.
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Nice job.....salt is probably the biggest thing to dump. You can drop 3-5% of your body weight in a week in just water by getting rid of heavy salt. Helps the BP....and then your kidneys can help you liver out with the booze more!
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You guys have 10 days before the client does something stupid and crosses state lines to New Jersey while out on bail......
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Did anyone listen to Pegula the other day? Have you been listening over the months? He said he talks with Regier more than his wife....then said it was a fact. He says that all decisions are discussed and it is a flat management structure where everyone has a say. Regier has said that he needs to get clearence from ownership to do things. I think we have plenty of evidence on what is going on behind the scenes. It's pretty concrete to me. When I worked for a couple of decent buyers in the racing industry...I was the agent and had full power. I understood what the budget was, and was left to go to work in acquiring prospects. Once acquired, I communicated with them on a regular basis as far as plans, updates, etc....but the decisions were mine. There would be rare instances where the $ was big enough to make sure they wanted to go through with it, or if an offer was made to us on a major racing prospect, the final decision was up to them as it was a balance of fun vs. $$.....but they knew their limits in evaluating talent and I was honored that they felt, "If you like them...that's good enough for me.". because I was trusted. I would be 90% in discussion with the trainers/barn/vets/farms/etc....and left to concentrate on that and form gameplans and evaluations. If the owners were always involved, it would be a nightmare. Darcy has shown in the past he is willing to put up with ANYTHING. It's not a bad thing being in communication with a knowledgable owner and having their regular input....if they are an actual decision making asset. Otherwise....let the GM do his job, sit back, relax, and enjoy your toys.
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Off Topic Who wants to work for the Sabres?
Ghost of Dwight Drane replied to 26CornerBlitz's topic in The Aud Club
That's the best craigslist code I've seen yet.... Yes...americans also love Holiday, and to be Inn the know. It's Grand to have your own Island, but just like the war a little over $200 years ago, there is only Room for 328 of us to thrive. -
Off Topic Who wants to work for the Sabres?
Ghost of Dwight Drane replied to 26CornerBlitz's topic in The Aud Club
I know....that's his job. It's also Zimbabwe currency..... I prefer free beer.......