MattPie

I think if they won the second draw, it'd still be 6th. Winning the second draw moves up 10 spots, or to second overall. Can't think of a way they'd move up 9 spots.

You might even see bubble teams do a minor tank at the end of the season to miss the SC playoffs, but play in the TB tournament. That sounds crazy, but there are two pros for management: 1> You have a good shot at a really good pick. 2> the owner likely sees more home games if you expect to go well into the TB tourney vs. getting blown out the first round. The players and coach obviously won't be on-board, of course.

Juju has it. In two draws without the odds changing, you just add the probability winning if you only care if you win once. In this scenario it is more complex because the first draw changes the odds of the second, but it's still in the neighborhood of 10% that the Sabres win one of the two. If it were 5% each draw, after 20 draws (5 * 20 == 100) you'd expect that you'd win one of the draws. If you're using the 6-sided die, each number comes up 1/6 of the time (16.6667%), so if you roll the die 6 times you "should" see each number come up, even though any particular roll the odds don't change.

Related: lawns, especially large lawns. It takes me around an hour to cut the lawn here (maybe 3/4 acre of actual grass). I can't imagine wanting more than that and having to think about a riding mower and the time to take care of it.

Whatever. 😉

I doubt it, I think people are just thinking out loud. I suppose if the Sabres really said, "no no, you take the pick we'll take next year" Vegas would happily agree, but #6 this year is more desirable than something between 15-30 next year (most likely).

I'm going to pin this so someone can dig it up in five years if you're wrong.

You're presuming a top pick is going to require the most money. Sure, Matthews, but are the top guys going to say, "well, Buffalo (2011-2021) offered me $8, but Tampa Bay offered $5, I gotta go with Buffalo". Some of them will avoid bad teams no matter what the offer. Maybe if it was a straight bidding war with the player not involved... But, I don't think the draft or lottery is that broken to begin with. It's relatively fair without massively encouraging tanking. Sure, tweak some of the parameters with percentages and max up/down movement, but otherwise it's not the worst thing in the world.

Vegas may be worse next year, but seems really unlikely they'd be pick 6 overall bad. They take the pick at 6 this year every time. If nothing else, might give them a cheap NHL-level player (or not really but pressed into service anyway) to help them with the cap.

I think I said this during the original goal song discussion, but this feels just a appropriate for the Sabres skating out now (starting at 1:36):

Ahem, Stanley Cup Champion Ruhwedel.

There's a very similar poll floating around on this.

Might need to add this to your Internet filter: https://www.theurbanlist.com/a-list/you-can-now-feast-on-an-edible-candle-made-of-chicken-fat

Interesting, I figured there was a "qualifying offer" style process for CHL Draftees, but I can't find info on that. I'd think there would be more players that don't sign with a team in hopes to get picked up by a team in a better situation. Entirely possible there's a quid-pro-quo that marginal players aren't willing to risk the ire of the league, and good players will get signed early enough that they won't wait it out. I feel like it'd be "fair" to make a bit more of a time penalty for NCAA players that won't sign with their NHL team like the 6mo suggestion above, but I could see that hitting NCAA players that the team will not sign for some reason. I'm not sure that'd come up too often, if you're even borderline NHL your drafting team would probably sign you for the AHL anyway.

So it's "Both Buffalo and Vegas win the lottery" or neither of those happen?

Interestingly, O'Reilly also have 2G 1A in the game.

How about the pin or a Lite beer in the other hand?

There's not a "neither" option either. As others above are mentioning I too rarely watch the NFL where previously I'd have most games on the weekend and catch the Monday and Thursday games. It's a rarity I put any game on now (even the Bills), but rather read the thread and watch the 10-minutes of highlights after. Sabres are the same, I haven't watched a live gave this season, even though I might be able to with ESPN+ (which I have on-and-off when we activate the Hot-spot plan with Verizon). It's not political either, just decided I have too many other things I'd rather do that are better for me than TV as a whole.

I'll play Team StormCloud for a moment. I hope I'm wrong. TNT (and the Sabres) have a few things going for them right now (no data, I'm just going by board sentiment). - No one in the east is fighting for their season nor has been for weeks; I'm not saying the entire East is coasting, but there's not that do or die in the West; it's more do or maybe get a different seeding - The Sabres (I believe) are getting a parade of backups in net - Teams may be taking the Sabres lightly based on record and earlier games this season; I'm sure the coaches are saying "this is not an easy win" but who knows if that gets through when you're not really fighting for the playoffs - There isn't much tape on 40-ish-goal-scorer TNT, next year I could see teams game-planning for him

Coach seems to be a guy that takes dissent as a personal affront, and can't keep his mouth shut. I'm not sure if I hope that Lehner forces a trade in the off-season or stays and grumbles the whole time.

To be clear, I think Levi does have what it takes and the scouts in the OP aren't giving him a fair shake. Bringing up two guys who are an inch taller out the 40-ish decent NHL players kinda proves the point. They have the exceptional skill to make up for their arms and legs being an inch or two shorter (or more) than other players at the position.

That list would have more impact if any of those guys played in the last 20 years. Exceptional skill can overcome some if not most physical challenges. Levi may have the skill to do it, but it's not unfair for a scouting group to decide it can't be done considering how unlikely it is to work.

At least 4-5 of those 7 are really injured too!

The bright side of the Decade of Incompetence is there's a whole group of young Sabres fans that have never meaningfully seen the Sabres lose a round (or even an important game), so they can enjoy non-Sabres playoff games between east teams. Well, what about the second round where the bolded rule is meaningless?

Few years back when I was doing the pace data analysis stuff every game, I think I used 0.580 as the "you're on the bubble" mark. Sure, you might not get in with 95-96 points but the vast majority of years you're in. I like 0.600 as "other than a freak season you're in". #TeamNHL600 (and because it's the internet) #DeLuca500isforNazis 🙂