Samson's Flow

Baby bunny? OMG

Fair enough. My interest in the numbers have been a convenient means to keep calm during the constant panic about missing 30th that has been this season. It is highly unlikely that the Islanders miss the playoffs. That said, it was equally unlikely that the Red Sox came back to beat the Yankees after being down 3-0. Sports is great and interesting to me because the unpredictable and unexpected happens with surprising regularity. It allows you to be emotionally invested in something even if it defies logic and probabilities. Same reason I expect to have Eichel on the team next year, but I sure can hope and dream of McDavid.

I don't think you understand. I have waaaayyy more bunny pictures.

Planning on going to kerfuffle as well. A nice day at canalside with some friends - sounds good to me. I like a few of the bands coming (Cake, Mowglis, New Politics) and the price point is nice.

Moar bunnies!

Oh look bunnies!

I suppose in my above scenario you can research historical trends to determine how often a game has reached a shootout or been determined in OT. Then assign probabilities as such. Say 20% of all games this year have resulted in a OT/shootout, so then there would be four outcomes with estimated odds as such: NYI win regulation: 40% NYI loss in regulation: 40% NYI win in OT: 3% NYI loss in OT: 3% NYI win in shootout: 7% NYI loss in shootout: 7% So just for the NYI to lose out and gain 0 points (given 50/50 odds of W/L), you would be looking at something like 0.4 * 0.4 = 0.16. Just two outcomes is something like 16%, not even factoring that NYI are a top ten team so far this year and win more often than lose.

I know exactly what it means when I quote that site. It is the culmination of millions of simulations to give an expected outcome. You are free to argue the percentage all you want and how they determine weighted odds, but even so the following scenario needs to play out for the Islanders to miss the playoffs: Islanders lose (gain 0 points) against 2 opponents, Boston and Ottawa winning against 2 opponents and Detroit winning 1 is a total of seven separate independent events that must result in a specific outcome with no margin of error. At this point, yes it is statistically highly improbable that all seven go exactly how you want, even less likely when you consider that the Islanders are a pretty good team and have a high chance of gaining points in the remaining games. Don't act like i'm just making up.

That nine game tryout seems like ages ago doesn't it?

Liger, the over-exaggeration is basically from one guy. Don't respond to his provoking.

The math above comes out to 0.00221% chance. Thanks Vodka Bottle, I was doing it by memory and couldn't remember where the worst odds started. My calculation above reflects the correct odds.

NOt claiming to be a smarty pants stats calculator, but sportsclubstats has the NY Islanders chances of making the playoffs at 99.8%, meaning their chances of missing the playoffs is currently at 0.221%. Taking that percentage and then multiplying by the chance of winning the lottery if that happened, and you are looking at 0.221% x 0.5%. It ain't happening.

Trampoline hockey. It's the future man... :flirt:

Yeah buddy! It seems our pitching was much better today than my prediction. If the Jays can get even league average pitching this year they can go places. Always love beating the Yankees. :thumbsup:

And here I thought we were friends. Why you hating on my Jays? They will have a top 5 offense with the addition of Donaldson and Martin. They just have to win every game 6-5... :lol:

Cody Hodgson is good at hockey. It's all a ruse

That was Drury-esqe there. I remember when our team used to pull off games like this win for Chicago

I'm going to buy Toews some flowers. I don't believe it

Obviously the 1,001st choice is marked as "commissioner's choice" :nana:

but... but.. they have access to those little blue boxes to get the key out. That's important!

Not sure we get the same kind of cookies as d4rk... :blush:

I would say at this point you have certainly proved that this isn't just some side hobby dealio. With regards to pricing, I would offer this idea. If you can get a hold of the pricing/contract structure of your actual 40+ hr a week company job, that would be a good basis to start with. The cost you quote should be whatever the tipping point is between "why am I wasting my time with this?" and "That was a pain in the ass, but at least it was worth it". Also, having this structure in place may have the added benefit of being treated more like the professional artist you are. College art students can do free work, I would assume the level of quality you provide is above that. Of course it's all up to you. Just some suggestions. ;)

Yeah if we added the Carrion's whopping 127 pages (seriously guys?) then this thread would have hit 178 pages and counting.

I'm gonna assume the censored word is "amazeballs". :flirt: The freakin NFL doesn't have a problem with giving the worst team the #1 pick ferchristsakes. That league is the biggest because there is a thought that every year can be your year and bad teams can get good in a hurry.

Add - It wouldn't be too difficult to have a stock contract written up, where you could just fill in the necessary details, like expected time of completion and quoted cost. Both parties sign and then the expectations from both sides are known.