carpandean

I thought that the whole "they only have a 25% chance" thing made it pretty obvious, but if you prefer statistical evidence to underlying probabilities ... :P

Fixed that for you. Coyotes had 89 points, one more than Ottawa, New Jersey and Nashville. After adjusting for the NJ re-draw: EFFECTIVE LOTTERY ODDS 1. BUFFALO SABRES - 25.38% 2. FLORIDA PANTHERS - 19.08% 3. EDMONTON OILERS - 14.42% 4. CALGARY FLAMES - 10.86% 5. NEW YORK ISLANDERS - 8.22% 6. VANCOUVER CANUCKS - 6.29% 7. CAROLINA HURRICANES - 4.77% 8. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS - 3.65% 9. WINNIPEG JETS - 2.74% 10. ANAHEIM DUCKS (VIA OTT) - 2.13% 11. NEW JERSEY DEVILS - 0% (WILL DRAFT 30TH)* 12. NASHVILLE PREDATORS - 0.112% 13. ARIZONA COYOTES - 0.81% 14. WASHINGTON CAPITALS - 0.51% Also, as posted yesterday: Sabres, Islanders, Probability 1, 5, 25.38% 2, 1, 8.22% 2, 5, 44.36% 2, 6, 22.03% (~75% chance that we pick 2nd, ~70% chance that Islanders pick 5th)

I liked Lindy here and I'm happy for him there. That said, the only two things that I didn't like about his firing were: (1) it wasn't done sooner, and (2) Darcy didn't go with him. The organization needed a change, top-to-bottom, but they limped along with status-quo.

Problem is that nobody in this year's draft is truly a "high-end forward prospect." They're 1-5 this year because it's a weak draft class, but would 5-10 or worse in next year's class. I have a very hard time seeing them become playoff competitive next year (and you seem to agree.) Even if they trade away some of their higher-end prospects, they're down to the studs (the wood kind, not the elite player kind) right now, so it's unlikely to have enough effect next season. IMO, waiting to start that process will have little to no effect on their competitiveness in two seasons other than possibly hurting what they could add in next year's draft, so why try and force it next year?

No tank will every be completely voluntary. The players are simply more vested in their own careers than the team's long-term future. Most players change teams these days, so tanking to help the one that they are on now is more likely to hurt their future contracts than it is to help their future team.

Knew it was coming (I'm in book four), but it was still nice to see.

And they are great seats! Hard to imagine any in the arena (boxes, aside) are better.

Final charts posted. Truly an awesome (in the true sense of the word) season. Also, here's a look at the whole thing:

I posted this in the Islanders thread, but it fits here, too.

Sabres/Islanders, probability 1st/5th, 25.38% 2nd/1st, 8.22% 2nd/5th, 44.37% 2nd/6th, 22.03% I would bet that the Islanders would give us the 6th pick, but would not give us the 1st pick. Not sure what happens if they pick 5th. Top 5 are supposed to be a step above.

Everyone should think that we won't win the lottery, because it is far more likely that we don't than we do. I would like them to win, but expecting them to would be silly (unlike a few years ago when it would have been slightly better than a coin flip chance.) No need to call on the Buffalo always loses mentality here. Side note: the Sabres actually have a 25.38% chance of winning. NJs balls (1.5% chance) count as redraws, so the Sabres chance is 0.25/(1-0.015) = 0.2538. Side note 2: Sabres had the same number of ROWs this season as last in 34 more games. Only Florida had less last season and no other team has come close in a full season since they started tracking that stat a few years ago. That's 17% of games won without a shhotout.

Awesome.

Guy's a magician ...

It's a question of how you define your events. Two choices are: (1) Sabres win lottery or they do not, or (2) Sabres win lottery, Oilers win lottery, Panthers win lotttery, ..., 14th-worst team win lottery. In (1) the Sabres not winning is the most likely event, while in (2) the Sabres winning the lottery is.

"Objection." "Overruled." "Oh, no, no, no. No, I STRENUOUSLY object." "Oh. Well, if you strenuously object, then I should take some time to reconsider."

Toronto is a lot closer than they would be, having gone 9-4 in shootouts. Other teams that had strong records: St. Louis (9-3), San Jose (10-7), Pittsburgh (6-2), Montreal (6-3), LA (8-4), Columbus (5-2), Calgary (6-3) and Buffalo (7-4). Washington went 10-10, so they got a lot of points in the SO, but no more than a coin-flip amount given they were in so many. Anaheim (2-6), Philly (3-7), Nashville (2-8), Carolina (1-4) and, of course, NJ (0-11) were particularly bad. Nashville and NJ are on the outside, in part, because of that.

Detroit has had 5 SO wins and 8 SO losses, so their actual goal differential is only -8. Their record, when expressed as ROW/ROL/SO(W or L) is: 32-33-13 I know that SO's are part of the scoring system, so you can't completely ignore them. However, even the league acknowledges that they are different by tracking ROW. If I were trying to create a model to predict playoff performance, I would likely treat them as a tie or something much less than a normal win/loss. In fact, look at the current records as I describe them: Dark Green = In (locked), Light Green = In (not locked), Yellow = Out (Not Eliminated), Red = Eliminated NJ is out because they have been unimaginably terrible team in a meaningless (come playoff time) part of the game.

Sadly, Leino's price is per season, so in the long run, it would be cheaper to ice an Abrams.

M1 Abrams - $8.6 Million Challenger 2 - $7.0 Million Leopard 2 - $5.7 million Merkava - $6.0 Million Type 90 - $7.4 Million Tanks ain't cheap.

(Italics, underline and caps added for emphasis.) Are you f'ing kidding me?! That was about as blatant and straight-forward of a head shot as you get. They should print a screen capture, poster size, with the caption "Don't do this" and have every team in the league put one up in their locker room. Even with the playoffs game conversion rate, he should be out more than the phone hearing max.

My biggest problem was that they didn't even try to make him look like the same character. Original: New: At least give him some hair extensions and a clean shave for the first couple of episodes just so that there is some continuity. Also, the first actor pulled off cocky better than the new guy.

Best comment:

For the first time this season, I'll truly be rooting for them to win. There's nothing to lose now. ;)

Florida made a valiant run for last place, but the Sabres just weren't sucky enough early on and the Sabres matched them suck-for-suck down the stretch.

I think they're throwing "top two" signs.